Future Trends for VGC resale?

[AstroBlasters]

Did it feel like Simba in a stampede of Saratoga people?

There was a pretty good mix, probably because people have multiple home resorts.

My kids actually had a bit more fun than they expected and it was a fun little dance party.

 

[ClaraOswald]

If you like Villas (larger than studio rooms) then VGC is a great value even at 250+. If room rates continue to spike at the Grand Cal, I could see it supporting a value well north of 300 and even into the 400 range with enough time/inflation. At some point it will hit the "there is only X years left" contract danger zone, but that is a long time from now.

DVC has many magical and iconic resorts and VGC for many is a magical unicorn. It's great when you are sitting on the bus back to a WDW DVC resort and chatting with other members when the "where do you own" conversation comes up. When I mention Grand Cal, 99% of the time their eyes light up and the expression on their face is priceless

I didn't really realize it was a 'big' deal to own VGC until we were at WDW in January and we went up to a booth to see if we could have a button. Before looking us up they asked where we owned and when they told them they were like "WOW...you're one of the special ones" or something along those lines.

I've yet to talk to any other DVC owners in the wild though. How would one recognize them??

 

[GoingSince1990]

I would say if you like it and want to buy there, don’t wait around in the hope that prices will go down, as you will end up kicking yourself if and when they climb over $300. Such a unique and appealing resort with advantages that no future resort will ever have.

 

[JackosinDIS]

I've yet to talk to any other DVC owners in the wild though. How would one recognize them??

The have a satisfied look on their face and empty wallets…

 

[Stank]

I think the demand will not drop. Just the current VGC contract holders will buy up any points if anything drops below 250. If the economy tanks as result of the election there may be a temporary dip, but with how incredibly convenient VGC is I don't see it ever stabilizing anywhere below 250. I thought the same a year ago about 275, but was wrong. I do not think the recent drop is due to the other options opening up (VDH), I think it is the cost of living going crazy.

Already 4 contracts at $239 and $245.

VGC has been tanking since the panic buying last year due only to VDH tax. It’s fallen from $330 to now $239.

 

[ClaraOswald]

Weren't the high prices like that pretty short lived though?

I definitely wouldn't say it's been "tanking" at this point. Looks like it's starting to inch closer to the early 2023 prices.

 

[ClaraOswald]

Also, because I'm a nerd....I looked at the average asking price for the current 45 contracts that I see and it comes out to around $269. There are a few lower priced ones but yeah...still not seeing it tanking just yet.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Weren't the high prices like that pretty short lived though?

I definitely wouldn't say it's been "tanking" at this point. Looks like it's starting to inch closer to the early 2023 prices.

Some people want to create a narrative.

 

[Stank]

Weren't the high prices like that pretty short lived though?

I definitely wouldn't say it's been "tanking" at this point. Looks like it's starting to inch closer to the early 2023 prices.

Yes, that’s my entire point. The short lived spike in VGC was due to panic buying as a result of VDH tax that scared people.

Poly resale prices inflating is a temporary situation similar to VGC last year. Different circumstances, but same result. Poly will deflate back to $130s in 8-10 months.

 

[Stank]

Also, because I'm a nerd....I looked at the average asking price for the current 45 contracts that I see and it comes out to around $269. There are a few lower priced ones but yeah...still not seeing it tanking just yet.

I mean, average asking price is rather meaningless. People can ask anything for anything—what matters is what’s clearing in the market.

You can buy a June 160 for $310 or a June 200 for $245. Total cost is less and you get 40 more points. The June $310 has been on the market for 6 months. Why would that price be considered in any sort of analysis?

I suppose I look at the lower asking because that’s where prices are being set. A year ago, people panic bought VGC at $320. Now you have multiple contracts sub-$250.

Where’s all the eager buying?

 

[JoshF]

I would like to buy VGC one day but the numbers just don’t make sense to me at current prices. If there’s ever a meaningful drop I’ll get done but for now I’m happy with my direct VDH points for $173 that expire in 2074 as opposed to paying $239 for points that expire in 2060. If all was equal, I would pick VGC but the Delta is just too big for me to ignore.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I would like to buy VGC one day but the numbers just don’t make sense to me at current prices. If there’s ever a meaningful drop I’ll get done but for now I’m happy with my direct VDH points for $173 that expire in 2074 as opposed to paying $239 for points that expire in 2060. If all was equal, I would pick VGC but the Delta is just too big for me to ignore.

Run the cost of additional dues and taxes you’ll pay every stay.

Not knocking your direct price, it’s great! Especially because Disney will probably create some other great DVC resorts at DLAND in the future and the direct points will work there….But over the life of the contract the dues, taxes, and inflation on those dues and taxes will dwarf the cost of the upfront buy in.

 

[Sandisw]

Just a reminder that the DIs does not allow specific info on contracts for sale to be shared. General discussion about trends, ranges, etc. are fine but no other details please.

 

[GoingSince1990]

Poly will deflate back to $130s in 8-10 months.

Even if (as looks very likely at this point) the tower is in the same association? A contract in the $130s with 11 month access to the brand new tower (and all of the rest of Poly), 7 months access to everything else except RIV, CFW and VDH, and without the RIV-style resale restrictions, sounds like an incredibly good deal.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Run the cost of additional dues and taxes you’ll pay every stay.

Not knocking your direct price, it’s great! Especially because Disney will probably create some other great DVC resorts at DLAND in the future and the direct points will work there….But over the life of the contract the dues, taxes, and inflation on those dues and taxes will dwarf the cost of the upfront buy in.

As someone who has very casually been looking at VGC for several months, I think prices have come down significantly over the course of a year, especially for larger contracts — probably because of the sticker shock of paying (or worse, financing) $50,000+.

Having said that (and watching a couple dozen contracts languish) I think most VGC owners realize that they can rent points at $18-25/pt, dues are reasonable, and they have a uniquely situated resort, so they don’t want to sell anywhere close to $200 if they don’t have to, even if they aren’t using their points themselves…so we might just see more contracts in the market with bouncing between $220-$260ish until either interest rates go down or unemployment goes way up.

I have stayed at VDH and VGC in the past month and I would be surprised VGC go below $200 anytime soon— I think for new buyers who want Y card benefits (or new options at WDW resorts) VDH may make more sense, but for existing owners, Disneyland enthusiasts, or people with mobility limitations, VGC resale at $200 makes much more sense than VDH at $180. I think if VDH really starts cutting direct prices it could potentially impact VGC short term, but I think there are a lot of us who would be thrilled to buy if we could find a small-medium contract anywhere close to $200 (and I’m not saying it will even reach that level, I do think bigger contracts might make it closer)— if renovations are popular (and most DVC renos have been well received) I think the smaller and mid-sized contract prices will increase again.

For future desirability, it’s hard to imagine where Disney could put a hotel that would be so much better situated than VGC, and even if they somehow make an even better option with Disneyland Forward, I think we’d be talking 5-10 years in the future (maybe a flip of PP would be faster, but I don’t think it would be superior location), and the point chart would be out of this world.

In sum, I think an owner would be crazy to sell below $200, and I think existing/aspiring owners would be happy to buy up small-to-medium contracts if sellers start being motivated to sell much less than where they are now— similar dynamic currently seems to be supporting BCV/BWV, actually. Another unique aspect of VGC is that Disney can’t meet buyer demand at $310/pt direct, so if prices did decline much further, Disney might consider ROFR and flip for a 50% profit.

 

[CastAStone]

VGC resale at $200 makes much more sense than VDH at $180.

I think that’s true of nearly every DVC at WDW vs Direct at Riviera and yet that hasn’t helped prop up their prices over the last 18 months.

maybe a flip of PP would be faster, but I don’t think it would be superior location

Off topic, but unless they made a recent, quiet, private transaction, Disney still doesn’t own the land underneath PPH, which would make it rather hard to lease it out. The permits for the Pixar redo were mostly pulled in the name of the landowner, who Disney bought the hotel building from, not Disney.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I think that’s true of nearly every DVC at WDW vs Direct at Riviera and yet that hasn’t helped prop up their prices over the last 18 months.


Off topic, but unless they made a recent, quiet, private transaction, Disney still doesn’t own the land underneath PPH, which would make it rather hard to lease it out. The permits for the Pixar redo were mostly pulled in the name of the landowner, who Disney bought the hotel building from, not Disney.

VGC and RIV are so night and day different that…..

 

[CastAStone]

VGC and RIV are so night and day different that…..

The comparable property in my analogy to RIV is VDH, not VGC

 

[JoshF]

As someone who has very casually been looking at VGC for several months, I think prices have come down significantly over the course of a year, especially for larger contracts — probably because of the sticker shock of paying (or worse, financing) $50,000+.

Having said that (and watching a couple dozen contracts languish) I think most VGC owners realize that they can rent points at $18-25/pt, dues are reasonable, and they have a uniquely situated resort, so they don’t want to sell anywhere close to $200 if they don’t have to, even if they aren’t using their points themselves…so we might just see more contracts in the market with bouncing between $220-$260ish until either interest rates go down or unemployment goes way up.

I have stayed at VDH and VGC in the past month and I would be surprised VGC go below $200 anytime soon— I think for new buyers who want Y card benefits (or new options at WDW resorts) VDH may make more sense, but for existing owners, Disneyland enthusiasts, or people with mobility limitations, VGC resale at $200 makes much more sense than VDH at $180. I think if VDH really starts cutting direct prices it could potentially impact VGC short term, but I think there are a lot of us who would be thrilled to buy if we could find a small-medium contract anywhere close to $200 (and I’m not saying it will even reach that level, I do think bigger contracts might make it closer)— if renovations are popular (and most DVC renos have been well received) I think the smaller and mid-sized contract prices will increase again.

For future desirability, it’s hard to imagine where Disney could put a hotel that would be so much better situated than VGC, and even if they somehow make an even better option with Disneyland Forward, I think we’d be talking 5-10 years in the future (maybe a flip of PP would be faster, but I don’t think it would be superior location), and the point chart would be out of this world.

In sum, I think an owner would be crazy to sell below $200, and I think existing/aspiring owners would be happy to buy up small-to-medium contracts if sellers start being motivated to sell much less than where they are now— similar dynamic currently seems to be supporting BCV/BWV, actually. Another unique aspect of VGC is that Disney can’t meet buyer demand at $310/pt direct, so if prices did decline much further, Disney might consider ROFR and flip for a 50% profit.

VGC ever gets back to $200 and I’ll scoop that up like ice cream.

 

[longboard55]

The one day drive reach that Disneyland has is huge, San Francisco to Utah to Vegas to Tucson, also 2 hours to Seattle or 5 hours to Hawaii by plane. Just do not see anything ever to drive prices down. The inventory is too tight. So what are the options on the west coast, Mexico? Do not think so. Yosemite is nice, be sure to reserve a year in advance.