Ft. Wilderness Cabins becoming DVC?

[Nursemanit]

Unless these tiny-home purchases are all direct from a new supplier and are shipped with lofts? I'm not even sure how "Disney-fied" any of these will be.

The Murphy beds are furniture -they will be added later.

As far as the cabins - they are not disneyfied now.

 

[meekey7197]

I googled 12x42 park model cabins and there’s some interesting existing models that sorta fit the artist rendering. No doubt Disney is commissioning a company and designing their own though.

 

[meekey7197]

The arrangement would be much simpler as queen + twin fold down in the bedroom, murphy plus twin fold down in the living area. Simple and they can use existing suppliers.

Ladders and lofts would be risky

It ruins the privacy of the master but it would be solution

 

[peder]

The thing with 2 lofted "bedrooms" is that these begin to match Saratoga's Treehouse Villas, at least on paper. Again, the more they can make these seem "premium" the higher the point total they will be able to command.

 

[ehh]

I googled 12x42 park model cabins and there’s some interesting existing models that sorta fit the artist rendering. No doubt Disney is commissioning a company and designing their own though.

This is illuminating.

Seems 12x42 go for between $50k - $75k. Let's say Disney splurges on design, gets rush construction/delivery, and agrees to an exorbitant installation contract which results in these costing double the upper end of that range, so $150k/unit. That's still only $52.5mil for 350 units.

An average week of a RIV PV Studio is 166.8 points. An average week of SSR PV 1BR is 239.4 points. This is the range that I'd expect these cabins to land in for pts/wk.

Let's say points are $230 for all resorts when these go on sale, then a contract for one week of occupancy (per year) would cost between $38.4k and $55k based on those points values. Worst case (within this scenario), they recoup their cost by selling 4 weeks of occupancy per unit.

If costs are closer to $100k/unit and points chart puts these at ~220pts/wk, then they only need to sell 2 weeks of occupancy to recoup costs. In all, this would cost them $35mil and they'd sell ~4mil points for $900+mil.

That is an incredible return on investment for DVC. Yes there's also pools and facilities expected, but still wow.

 

[Nursemanit]

It ruins the privacy of the master but it would be solution

It only would need the bed for 6 - up to 5 and you have more privacy than a studio.

 

[Nursemanit]

This is illuminating.

Seems 12x42 go for between $50k - $75k. Let's say Disney splurges on design, gets rush construction/delivery, and agrees to an exorbitant installation contract which results in these costing double the upper end of that range, so $150k/unit. That's still only $52.5mil for 350 units.

An average week of a RIV PV Studio is 166.8 points. An average week of SSR PV 1BR is 239.4 points. This is the range that I'd expect these cabins to land in for pts/wk.

Let's say points are $230 for all resorts when these go on sale, then a contract for one week of occupancy (per year) would cost between $38.4k and $55k based on those points values. Worst case (within this scenario), they recoup their cost by selling 4 weeks of occupancy per unit.

If costs are closer to $100k/unit and points chart puts these at ~220pts/wk, then they only need to sell 2 weeks of occupancy to recoup costs. In all, this would cost them $35mil and they'd sell ~4mil points for $900+mil.

That is an incredible return on investment for DVC. Yes there's also pools and facilities expected, but still wow.

I looked at designs in the 1 br 12x42 range - not much other than what they have. These are not tiny homes they are "park cabins" or "park trailers" I would bet they custom spec them with items like foam-filled cell walls - no wood construction (Florida has flying termites) with cement wood-look siding, and metal shingle-look roofs all for hurricane ratings, low maintenance, and energy efficiency.

So I am thinking closer to 200K a cabin installed including decks, electric, driveway repairs, and plumbing. Then up that to $225k furnished. Like a $100 million project with salary and overruns.

So the first $25 a point goes to recoup costs for buildings maybe $5 would be for the pool and restaurants ( but they would be owned by Fort Wilderness like Poly or VGF) assuming an average of 230 points a week.

So @230 a point they have $200 for taxes/interest/commissions /salary/ marketing and profit.

So when people say things like "RR is taking too long, or Aualini is never going to sell out" I bet they recouped expenses in the first year.

 

[sethschroeder]

I know it can still go either way but more and more the language seems to be hinting that they will do a VGF move and make it part of the original.

BRV and CCV exist at the same resort Wilderness Resort.

So I don't see it as a hint. It's an expansion to Polynesian as it will share all the resort infrastructure.

That could mean it's the same or different DVC.

 

[sethschroeder]

Upgrading FW and adding it to DVC is one of the best ideas they have come up with. Talk about Welcome Home ! This is what DVC is all about! Not ridiculous overpriced and taxed rooms in Disneyland or out of reach POLY Bungalows. I think families will love this. I would bet that these will sell out before those Disneyland Hotel points do. Especially if the point chart is reasonable. Great Idea DVC ! I love it !

A campground? That is what DVC is about?

Also a likely costly campground as well.

I think its good but Poly is good as well. I also hope they add DVC to AOA or POP as well and target a lower point tier as well. Essentially a whole resort of AKV Value rooms.

Still think they should also turn CBR in to a European village, add some shops, theme like the Alps and Germany and such, then put in a walkway through the African pavilion as a new entrance as well as a raised walkway to Hollywood Studios.

Essentially flip CBR into a Deluxe style resort.

 

[sethschroeder]

I could see Ft. Wilderness as a destination unto itself,

Except you have like 15k campgrounds in the US already. Want to do that then go north or west and get the real thing.

AKL is different because it's not so easy to go to Africa and it's way more expensive.

 

[sethschroeder]

They could set a record for fixed week sales.

Maybe but remember they only sell a small percentage of the rooms in a specific week for FW.

So there is still a limit.

 

[sethschroeder]

Considering how much these new cabins look like Reflections and how quickly this is happening, I think this was all apart of the overall DVC plan for this area. Originally, they were doing Reflections first and then these cabins. With Reflections stalled, they are proceeding with the Cabins and will eventually reinvent Reflections as the next enhancement of the property. Of course, this is just a thought….one can never know with DVC.

Or someone ordered all the lamps and flooring by accident so they will shoehorn it in here so pass the cost to owners.

 

[Stank]

In all, this would cost them $35mil and they'd sell ~4mil points for $900+mil.

That is an incredible return on investment for DVC. Yes there's also pools and facilities expected, but still wow.

Yeah, nice immediate ROI….but the long game is nicer: lodging risk is near zero. I don’t know how many employees it would take to maintain this property—say a few hundred? Those employees’ wages are footed by DVC owners with dues. If minimum wage goes to $50/hour, Disney now transferred those wages onto owners.

Yes, ultimately all taxes/regulations are paid through the cash register (the customer pays). But…Disney now no longer has to care what a breakeven vacancy rate is. They no longer have to offer discounts for this property. If every cabin is unoccupied, they lose nothing (ignoring the small cash room risk Disney still carries when renting DVC rooms to non-owners). For hotel side, maybe the breakeven is 70% occupancy—I don’t know. Either way, occupancy rates become incredibly irrelevant to Disney as whether the rooms are taken or not, the dues have already been paid and thus all expenses are paid.

And of course if you’re pulling $800-900 million profit within 2-3 years of selling these, that’s also a quick-hit win. Getting that kind of money from renting hotel rooms in a parallel simulation may take multiple-times X that long.

Tl;dr, profit pulled forward/no more future risk for Disney. Pay increases, inflation, etc., all passed on through dues vs. battling and chasing customers with incentives/discounts to rent a hotel room.

 

[Nabas]

I googled 12x42 park model cabins and there’s some interesting existing models that sorta fit the artist rendering. No doubt Disney is commissioning a company and designing their own though.

This:



Seems to be a fancier version of this:

 

[tom1944]

Is it possible they make several different size cabins?

 

[Sandisw]

Is it possible they make several different size cabins?

I doubt it as they already announced they sleep 6 so that leads me to believe they will be like the current ones in the sense everything the same.

 

[Stank]

Yeah, this was a solid move to address and make essentially a 1.5 bedroom. A family with 4 kids can only get 2 BR and above. There definitely needs to be a better option for those with 6-8 guests. Maybe 7 and above need a 2 BR anyway, but there’s a gaping hole for families with 4 kids. That extra kid adds a huge leap in accommodation costs that Disney has overlooked up until now.

 

[nerdboyrockstar]

If it remains only 1 bathroom, no way I'm putting 6 people in this thing. I don't know how people do it and manage to all get ready for the parks. If they can squeeze in another shower like the Poly studios then yes.

 

[hilltopper152]

This is illuminating.

Seems 12x42 go for between $50k - $75k. Let's say Disney splurges on design, gets rush construction/delivery, and agrees to an exorbitant installation contract which results in these costing double the upper end of that range, so $150k/unit. That's still only $52.5mil for 350 units.

An average week of a RIV PV Studio is 166.8 points. An average week of SSR PV 1BR is 239.4 points. This is the range that I'd expect these cabins to land in for pts/wk.

Let's say points are $230 for all resorts when these go on sale, then a contract for one week of occupancy (per year) would cost between $38.4k and $55k based on those points values. Worst case (within this scenario), they recoup their cost by selling 4 weeks of occupancy per unit.

If costs are closer to $100k/unit and points chart puts these at ~220pts/wk, then they only need to sell 2 weeks of occupancy to recoup costs. In all, this would cost them $35mil and they'd sell ~4mil points for $900+mil.

That is an incredible return on investment for DVC. Yes there's also pools and facilities expected, but still wow.

This is where it falls through for me. How can you validate (also my internal question) spending the same per point in purchase price for this "resort" when you can buy at Poly Tower or the others? These are literal trailers on blocks with no room options, limited transportation, less general services, and very far from resrort amenities on foot. I love the fort but this is a major dip down in typical DVC. If that point chart is true, which it is a very good guess, and you pay the same gob of money upfront, this will be pretty bad value. Historically getting a cabin is not that hard and that shows the demand. Putting DVC on it and adding a pool while taking away the true charm of the area is not a good starting point to say "hey overpay for this please".

I am very interested in this (Massive fan of camping and the country) but logic has to kick in. My wife and daughters can have Poly for a week, or a cabin where I am very dependent upon a golf cart or rental car to do anything. For me this point chart has to be very affordable, close to that studio cost or purchase price is cheaper which is not likely as people will just buy and transfer points out. I also say all of this without talking about contract length or due cost.

Side comment: Not sure 11 month window here sells people unless its Halloween, Thanksgiving, or christmas. So buying your points here may not matter too much.

 

[hilltopper152]

If it remains only 1 bathroom, no way I'm putting 6 people in this thing. I don't know how people do it and manage to all get ready for the parks. If they can squeeze in another shower like the Poly studios then yes.

People here saying this is for 6 people for a week are true hardcore value seekers or ignorant to the past cabins. I slept in tubs and closets as kid on trips (did not know better - just knew my family was finding ways to vacation with large family). I hope to not have to do that again ha could not with adults. These are only comfortable with 4 people and the extra sleeping spots are a technicality for when you have to make it work for a couple nights.

I have a vivid memory of sleeping bags on the ground as cousins crammed in breaking the rules for our sleepover as a kid. I also had 8 stitches pulled out of my head after a falling into a deep sleep after MK. Did not even feel it ha.