mom2rtk
Invented the term "Characterpalooza"
- Joined
- Aug 23, 2008
- Messages
- 62,817
Not just swimming, but swimming at a deluxe resort. How about that.
Oh, so I can pool hop now?
I might have to reconsider. 
Not just swimming, but swimming at a deluxe resort. How about that.
I might have to reconsider. 
There are plenty of threads addressing FP+ and the perceived benefits vs. issues. I've been following some of them, as much as I can bear to, but being a bit of a nerd I keep thinking about the math of the situation, and some of the reports we are getting don't seem to add up. For example, there can't be both fewer fastpasses AND longer fastpass lines. I'd like to start a thread that looks at FP+ from a purely logical, mathematical standpoint because I'm sure that is how the Disney team is looking at it.
Before I start, I will apologize for the length of the post. For those of you who get through the whole thing, I hope it inspires thoughful discussion, rather than argument. Also, I want to point out that all numbers I use are made up. I have no live data to go on and have just chosen estimated numbers to illustrate my points.
Let's start with a basic premise. Let's assume both before and after FP+, the number of rides remains the same (more or less) and the number of riders who can ride the ride in an hour stays the same. So if Space Mountain can handle 1500 riders an hour (my made up number), then that is true whether the riders are fastpass riders or standby riders. If we can agree on this, then the next step is to look at the breakdown between FP riders vs. Standby riders.
Let's look at a few scenarios. First, in the days before fastpass, every line was a standby line and you were always at the mercy of the number of people who wanted to ride the ride at the same time you did. Those 1500 people still rode Space Mountain, but they all may have waited 60 minutes to do so. I'm sure everyone will agree that the original FP improved this because it allowed some of those 1500 people to do other things while they waited. Let's say that 20% of the 1500 (300 people) ended up getting fastpasses. Those 300 people only had to wait in line 10 minutes. Even though the remaining line has 1200 people left, they are still being intermingled with the FP riders so they are still waiting 60 minutes each, but overall there was less wait time for the group as a whole. Now, let's look at the opposite extreme. Let's assume that in a not too distant future, everyone has a fastpass to Space Mountain and there are no longer any standby lines. Each of the 1500 people has a virtual spot in line reserved for them and can return to the ride with almost no wait. In this case, the wait time for the group as a whole has drastically been reduced. The two extremes demonstrate how either everyone can wait 60 minutes or everyone can wait for 10 minutes and the same number of riders (1500) ride Space Mountain in that hour.
I believe that is the direction Disney is headed with FP+. With the paper FP system, it would have been very difficult to manage, (as well as killed forests of trees to provide the paper), but with everyone having instant access to the great fastpass system in the sky through the cell phones that they are all carrying, you CAN achieve a world of "all fastpass, all the time". I believe the current FP+ system is the stepping stone to that improved system. I know FP+ currently only allows for 3 fastpasses per day, but remember, it is a program in its infancy. It needs time to grow and work out the kinks. Data needs to be collected. As the program matures, it will be far easier adding additional fastpasses per day than it would be to take them away. Over time I think we will get to the point where you will be able to ride each ride using fastpasses that you arranged before you even walked in the front gate.
I don't want to argue the merits of having to book a time for everything and not being able to just enjoy your vacation. Although I talk about "all fastpass, all the time", I believe there will still always be standby lines for those who don't want to participate or who just want to wing it. I just think that instead of the split being 20% fastpass/80% standby it will move more toward 80% fastpass/20% standby and the average wait time for the collective group will be shorter.
I had a class in college that touched on "queuing theory" and ever since then, I've always admired how Disney manages to process so many people through the parks while keeping waits to a minimum. I have to believe that being the company that introduced FastPass, they have perhaps some of the best experience and expertise in the industry at managing wait times. Based on the mathmatical results they collect during the beta phase, I think they will be able to fine tune FP+ to provide for shorter wait times for everyone. Disney doesn't just spend half a billion dollars on something that they haven't done extensive mathmatical simulations on. I think there are going to be some rough patches in the short term until the transition is complete, but I really think that once we all get on the other side we're going to see the benefits.
I think we all just need to have a little faith, trust, and.... uhh... oh, I can never remember that last thing.
I am so on the fence about booking a trip because of all the negative stuff I am reading and also because I have had two sets of friends that went in Jan. and hated it. SO for us long timers that were used to going and riding a lot in a day.... with the old system....THIS NEW FP+ has me 
I agree with you. When you stay at a moderate resort, you are paying for a few extra amenities than a value, when you stay at a deluxe you are paying for more amenities over the moderates and location. The price to get into the parks is an entirely separate thing. I think the problem is that everyone feels they are entitled to be taken care of immediately and the heck with everyone else (I am not singling out anyone who is posting here) I remember waiting on line 2 hours in the summer for Splash Mountain before there was fast pass.
Do you think they will have it all tweaked/figured out......... before Aug. when we are thinking of going??![]()
I am so on the fence about booking a trip because of all the negative stuff I am reading and also because I have had two sets of friends that went in Jan. and hated it. SO for us long timers that were used to going and riding a lot in a day.... with the old system....THIS NEW FP+ has me
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And if you want to get fancy and all with the math, the Erlang C formula used in telecom could prove useful.............
I don't think that someone wanting a FOTLP is someone who is selfish and thinks they are more important.. that is a very general and judgmental attitude.
I have spent a lot of time gathering ride capacity numbers...here is a list. I never figured out that raceway!
Something else to consider is the influx of new riders flooding the queues. As 90% od Disney guests are now accessing FP, people who use to arrive at the parks in the afternoon to simply enjoy the sights and sounds, parades and shows, food and drink, now have three fastpasses in their hands. This leads to higher ride demand. Even with similar attendance the competition for the ride spots has increased.
I have been studying the math for about 18 months now, it doesn't add up at all. The only thing that will make it work is if Disney can convince thousand of guests a day to cut back on their riding and enjoy more swimming, bowling, mini golf, eating, drinking, or other such tomfoolery!![]()
Yay for your capacity numbers. Those are great!Don't forget that while we focus on the daily capacity of popular attractions like Soarin or TT or TSM, Disney considers the yield of all attractions in the park as a single aggregate capacity.
That is why you HAVE to pick 3 FP's and no more than one for the same attraction.
Sure, everybody wants to ride Soarin' and the line has always been long. Meanwhile, Captain EO and Figment had virtually no wait.
Previously, many commandos and even regular guests may have pulled 2 or even 3 FP's for Soaring and TT in one day. Now, they get to pick one for Soarin' OR one for TT, one for Nemo and one for Figment.
In more simplistic terms, Disney is spreading the love.
It's going to be a hard task indeed to influence individual preference and attraction popularity, but consider this - why do you think they chose to use Teacups as an example of making an FP reservation in their marketing instead of Space Mountain?
In fact, that is why I still think they will be opening FP up to more than one park per day, because considering the parks themselves as the aggregate increases the distribution yield of attractions.
Any guess I would have would be merely speculation. What I am pretty sure of is that Disney has years and years of data about fastpass usage. They know the number of fastpasses used on any ride, during any hour, on any given day of the year with many years worth of past data to go on. They also know the distribution of how many "commandos" there are, and how many fastpasses they would get each day compared to the number of casual fastpass users.
I think they just need some time to pass to get data under the new system. Let me use an example. Under the old fastpass system, they knew how many fastpasses were used in a day and how many people were in the park. They could simply divide the fastpass number by the park attendance to conclude that the average fastpass usage for each attendee was 3.2 (once again, my made up number). Some people used more, some less, but let's say 3.2 was the average. Given that, they might have decided to start the FP+ trial with 3 fastpasses per person. Now just because everyone may have 3 fastpasses, that doesn't mean everyone will use 3 fastpasses so after collecting data for a while they may find that enough fastpasses go unused that they can give everyone 4 fastpasses and then begin collecting data on how that affects lines, etc.
Another point I'd like to make is that I think people may be estimating a little high on the number of fastpasses they used in a day under the old system. I've seen many people want the number of fastpasses raised to 6. While I think it may be humanly possible to get and use 6 fastpasses in a day, I think it is not very common, and would only occur when the parks aren't very busy. Let me explain... under the old system, you were allowed to get a new fastpass after your existing fastpass time arrived or two hours had past , whichever came first. On a busy holiday park day, you would arrive at rope drop, run to your favorite ride, and get a fastpass for it which maybe allowed you on the ride within an hour or so. When that time arrived, you'd run to the next station and grab a fastpass, but because its a holiday, you're now starting to get 11-12 o'clock times. By the time you get to your 11 o'clock fastpass, you're looking at times for the good rides in the mid to late afternoon, which probably ends up being your last one. That's just 3 fastpasses, and I'll even give some leeway and say maybe some of the commandos can get 4, but on a busy day, you really aren't going to get much more than that. Please know that I am just taking the most common and likely case. I know that there are unique situations where you may have gotten 6 fastpasses in on July 4th, but it would be a rare occurrence. So, if your trip is in August and you're concerned that you are only going to get 3 fastpasses, then I would guess that under the old system in August, you probably weren't going to get much more than that anyway. Just enjoy the fact that you'll have your Toy Story fastpasses before you get to the park so Dad doesn't have to miss the first ride on RnR while he runs to get Toy Story passes (can you hear the bitterness in my voice?).
Now, on off season days, I think it would be much easier to get 6 fastpasses, but even if you can get 1 an hour, that is 6 solid hours of running around the parks getting fastpasses, when the standby lines were probably only slightly longer anyway.
When Disney had the promotion of giving away free fastpasses in the "year of giving" or whatever it was called, our family of 16 made it a point to volunteer and get the fastpasses. We showed up with enough "credits" that we each had 3 fastpasses for each park for 4 days and we were ecstatic. I remember the day at Epcot, we had over 20 fastpasses that went unused.
So, in summation, I think Disney needs the time to determine what the right number of fastpasses is, and that will only come when they have more data and unfortunately they may need data from every season to make a final judgement.

Rides default to the boundary condition of only 1 server, negating the utility of the result.
Arrivals are not Poisson
As for as the tweaking goes, I can't wait to see if the FP number drops to two during the peak season, that is an adjustment that would logically follow.
agreed!!!!!!!!i agree with you. When you stay at a moderate resort, you are paying for a few extra amenities than a value, when you stay at a deluxe you are paying for more amenities over the moderates and location. The price to get into the parks is an entirely separate thing. I think the problem is that everyone feels they are entitled to be taken care of immediately and the heck with everyone else (i am not singling out anyone who is posting here) i remember waiting on line 2 hours in the summer for splash mountain before there was fast pass.
I've been thinking a lot about what an all electronic fastpass system would more easily allow. Some things would be good, some bad. Here are some of the things I've come up with.
- changing the number of fastpasses during busy times (as you mentioned)
- Adding more fastpasses during offseason to encourage more attendance (kind of like the free meal plan offer)
- getting an extra fastpass from Disney on your birthday, anniversary, etc.
- concierge guests getting extra fastpasses
- being able to buy more fastpasses
- special fastpasses for DVC or AP
- ability to credit back fastpasses that were unused because of ride downtimes
- spend X dollars at store Y and get a fastpass
anyone got anything else?
3<6 unless you usually only ever used 3, then it doesn't really matter if 3<4,5,6,7....![]()
Well in our case 3 doesn't equal 3 because my teens use to enjoy getting 2 or three FP for tower of terror, but now getting one RnRC, one tot, and one ??? Isn't quite the same. That is where the numbers get tricky for me.
In the days of legacy FP, tower of terror had FP available late in the day. My kids could grab multiples routinely during peak season. Anybody who wanted one before could get one. But now there isn't enough to go around? Why is that? Why can't my kids get two anymore? What changed? There is a hole in that math for me.
Are more people getting the nerve to try tower of terror now that they have a FP?

Because now other people's kid's who haven't had any are going to get one![]()
I don't think that someone wanting a FOTLP is someone who is selfish and thinks they are more important.. that is a very general and judgmental attitude. And before you write that you weren't directing it at anyone in this thread you wrote and I quote.. "I think the problem is that EVERYONE feels entitled to be taken care of immediately and the heck with everyone else".... which definitely implies you think anyone who wants a way to purchase a better experience for their family is somehow selfish and "entitled".
The truth is I want my vacation to be as wonderful as possible and go as smoothly as possible. If I pay $4000 for a vacation and could purchase a FOTLP or stay at a deluxe Disney resort and be given it like Universal does, I am darn well going to do it.. and I am pretty sure most people would if they could afford it. When we stayed at Universal onsite we had an unlimited express pass, which was just heavenly.. it made our time there so wonderful and stress free. I would love it if Disney did the same thing.. and I will not apologize for feeling that way.
Do you also have an issue with the VIP tour? I mean those people pay big bucks to have access to every ride as much as they want and they don't have to wait.. are those people also selfish and entitled?
I honestly do not see the difference in Disney offering extras for a price and any other thing in life where you pay more for better access.
It sounds to me like some feel once you get through the gates at WDW everything should be totally equal.. even though in most other things in life this is not the case. Why should Disney be any different than the rest of the world when it comes to offering special perks to those who want and can spend the extra cash?
If this is about things being fair than in truth WDW wouldn't even exist because not everyone can afford a ticket to begin with.. literally millions of people in this world will never be able to set foot through the gates. Does that mean Disney should close the doors and say good night? No of course not... so if at some point Disney offers some type of FOTLP to deluxe resort guests or offers guests a chance to purchase more FP's, there is no reason anyone should feel angry or resentful about it unless they look in a mirror and feel that way about themselves for even being able to afford a WDW trip to begin with.