FP+ Let's look at the math...

[Love Tink]

The reason we are seeing so much negativity on this board is that most of us are commandos. If there were an equivalent board only for people who were new to Disney, then they would probably be singing the praises of FP+.

I don't think most people are dumb enough to sing the praises of a system that gets them three FP a day, especially when they have to wait in line to even get those FP (if they are off-site visitors) and go through a frustrating process, the FP options are limited and some off them may not be available, the other lines are all longer because of this new system, and the FP lines are 15-20 minutes long after being promised "Skip the line!"

I don't know anyone who looks at almost $500 in tickets for a family of five for a day at WDW and then goes, "Hey! We get THREE rides?! All right!"

The people who like FP+, from what I can tell, are the repeat customers who don't really care about riding the rides. Don't know if that was the core demographic that Disney was trying to please.

 

[TooExcitedCantSleep]

I don't think most people are dumb enough to sing the praises of a system that gets them three FP a day, especially when they have to wait in line to even get those FP (if they are off-site visitors) and go through a frustrating process, the FP options are limited and some off them may not be available, the other lines are all longer because of this new system, and the FP lines are 15-20 minutes long after being promised "Skip the line!"

I don't know anyone who looks at almost $500 in tickets for a family of five for a day at WDW and then goes, "Hey! We get THREE rides?! All right!"

The people who like FP+, from what I can tell, are the repeat customers who don't really care about riding the rides. Don't know if that was the core demographic that Disney was trying to please.

I think I'm going to like the new system and I am as commando as they come. People who sing the praises of FastPass+ are far from "dumb." The "dumb" ones are the ones who sit on here all hours of the day n' night complaining and calling other people dumb for having the nerve to like what they have a right to like. If you don't like the new FastPasst+ system you can go somewhere else!

 

[Bullseye]

I don't think most people are dumb enough to sing the praises of a system that gets them three FP a day

I don't know anyone who looks at almost $500 in tickets for a family of five for a day at WDW and then goes, "Hey! We get THREE rides?! All right!"

The people who like FP+, from what I can tell, are the repeat customers who don't really care about riding the rides. Don't know if that was the core demographic that Disney was trying to please.

They're not dumb at all, many only used 3-4 a day previously and are happy to now secure those FP with much less effort.

$500 for 5 tickets is a one day price. Most folks are buying multiple day tickets. My 8 day tickets including water parks is $47.25 a day. I'd say that's pretty darn cheap
Saying you only get to ride three rides a day is just a bunch of drama. Anybody who gets to the park relatively early can ride three rides in the first hour without any FP at all.

And yes I admit I am a repeat customer that doesn't care too much about riding rides since I ride them every year... just like most of the posters on these boards who are griping the loudest.

I think I'm going to like the new system and I am as commando as they come. People who sing the praises of FastPass+ are far from "dumb." The "dumb" ones are the ones who sit on here all hours of the day n' night complaining and calling other people dumb for having the nerve to like what they have a right to like. If you don't like the new FastPasst+ system you can go somewhere else!

Exactly

 

[JimmyV]

...they arrived at the parks early and used standby enough that they didn't really need to use all of their fastpasses.

Saying you only get to ride three rides a day is just a bunch of drama. Anybody who gets to the park relatively early can ride three rides in the first hour without any FP at all.

Indeed, this is the preferred strategy. So where is the benefit? In explaiing the new system to my wife who is neither a commando at heart, (but she has little choice when she is with me and my daughter ), and has not spent a nanosecond reading up on this here or otherwise, her conclusion has been and continues to be: "But if this new system is designed to allow people to arrive at parks at a more leisurely pace and still be able to ride the "big ride" with a pre-reserved FP+, what else are they going to do? If we arrive at DHS at noon with a FP for TSM, we won't be able to ride RnR. So who are all these people that Disney thinks will enjoy arriving late to the parks just to ride TSM, ToT, and then leave?"

So your friends have nothing but good things to report about FP+. But it isn't because of FP+. It is because they availed themselves of early arrival which is still the best workaround on crowded days. We were there on President's Weekend as well and we made RD on every day. Without that, we would have had a tough time, FP+ or not. This is especially true for the people staying of site. There is no way that anyone who stood in a one hour lne at 11:00 a.m. just to pick up FP+ scraps could sing the praises of FP+. But someone who arrived at 8:20 for a 9:00 opening could love it. One could say that FP- suffered the same fate, and I wouldn't argue otherwise. I'm just not seeing the benefit when the net effect is, as you point out, fewer rides for longtime guests who learned touring strategies from years of experience; crappy FP+ options for those who stay off site and don't arrive at RD; hour long lines to use kiosks; longer SB lines for everyone; and FP+ lines that crowd the park and snake into areas that are not supposed to accomodate crowds. In the end, if you started a poll and asked:

If you had a choice and could opt in to FP+ that operates exactly as it is operating now, and if you book your FP+ in advance you are shut out of FP-; or opt in to FP- that operated exactly as it operated before, and if you haven't pre-booked a FP+ by the time you enter the turnstile, you are limited only to FP- for the whole day; which would you choose?

I seriously doubt that a single off site person there on President's Day weekend would choose FP+, and many on site guests (especially those at Epcot) would opt for FP- as well. Since I still have to get to the park early in the day, as did your friends, what is FP+ giving me? Quick access to Living With The Land at 2:00 p.m.? Hard to get excited about that.

Sorry for the off topic response.

 

[bcrook]

My kid could easily pull 3 paper FP's for TOT in one day. Easily.

I never thought about how he was robbing that opportunity from another child.

I guess if Disney starts charging for FP, that would mean that every person who buys an additional FP is robbing a child from being able to get one.

That's when I'll start the "Save the Children" program, so that for less than $1 a day you can provide hope for children everywhere that an FP will be available to them.....

I'm going to need some poster kids......maybe a shot of Johnny standing outside a packed Teacups and long SB line with a single tear rolling down his cheek?

This is funny.

But, it is also true. The math also works seriously against the selling of FP. For the major rides, those times slots go very quickly and there are no extras (that is why we have tiers). So, if Disney ever decides to sell extra slots and they can be used for high demand rides - then the equity argument could be thrown right out the window.

With only 8000 Safari and TSMM slots available, those FP went to the people who got to the park earliest with legacy - any person only had to compete with the other 8000 people who showed up to DHS to get a FP for TSMM. If you got there before 10:30 - you were going to get a FP.

The current system allows ALL onsite guests equal access, but half the population (off site guests) has limited (if any) access. That means an onsite customer needs to now compete with about 15000 everyday instead of 8,000 to get that TSMM FP or Safari or ETWB.

I guess if the off site guests eventually get online advanced access - that would be the MOST equitable of all. But it will make it MUCH more difficult to get a golden FP. IF everyone goes online - there will be about 35000 people all eligible to access those 8000 FPs. Now the casual guest has more competition for these rides: The Mine Train, ETWB, Safari, Splash in the Summer, Soarin, TT, RnRC, Space Mountain.

If this moves to purchase, then it would be who is willing to pay will have access. This does seem to be moving more towards an elitist system - at least not as equitable.

 

[TooExcitedCantSleep]

Indeed, this is the preferred strategy. So where is the benefit? In explaiing the new system to my wife who is neither a commando at heart, (but she has little choice when she is with me and my daughter ), and has not spent a nanosecond reading up on this here or otherwise, her conclusion has been and continues to be: "But if this new system is designed to allow people to arrive at parks at a more leisurely pace and still be able to ride the "big ride" with a pre-reserved FP+, what else are they going to do? If we arrive at DHS at noon with a FP for TSM, we won't be able to ride RnR. So who are all these people that Disney thinks will enjoy arriving late to the parks just to ride TSM, ToT, and then leave?"

So your friends have nothing but good things to report about FP+. But it isn't because of FP+. It is because they availed themselves of early arrival which is still the best workaround on crowded days. We were there on President's Weekend as well and we made RD on every day. Without that, we would have had a tough time, FP+ or not. This is especially true for the people staying of site. There is no way that anyone who stood in a one hour lne at 11:00 a.m. just to pick up FP+ scraps could sing the praises of FP+. But someone who arrived at 8:20 for a 9:00 opening could love it. One could say that FP- suffered the same fate, and I wouldn't argue otherwise. I'm just not seeing the benefit when the net effect is, as you point out, fewer rides for longtime guests who learned touring strategies from years of experience; crappy FP+ options for those who stay off site and don't arrive at RD; hour long lines to use kiosks; longer SB lines for everyone; and FP+ lines that crowd the park and snake into areas that are not supposed to accomodate crowds. In the end, if you started a poll and asked:

If you had a choice and could opt in to FP+ that operates exactly as it is operating now, and if you book your FP+ in advance you are shut out of FP-; or opt in to FP- that operated exactly as it operated before, and if you haven't pre-booked a FP+ by the time you enter the turnstile, you are limited only to FP- for the whole day; which would you choose?

I seriously doubt that a single off site person there on President's Day weekend would choose FP+, and many on site guests (especially those at Epcot) would opt for FP- as well. Since I still have to get to the park early in the day, as did your friends, what is FP+ giving me? Quick access to Living With The Land at 2:00 p.m.? Hard to get excited about that.

Sorry for the off topic response.

I disagree with you completely....as I see many benefits to FastPass+. That said- I respect that many people don't like FastPass+. What I don't understand is why they are still here. But---that's their problem....folks can do whatever they want. Some folks will move on and some will complain and call people names----whatever. You don't see the benefits but I surely do. It doesn't make anyone smarter or dumber for liking anything they want and you really need to respect that. We don't all have to agree with your likes and dislikes.

 

[bcrook]

I disagree with you completely....as I see many benefits to FastPass+. That said- I respect that many people don't like FastPass+. What I don't understand is why they are still here. But---that's their problem....folks can do whatever they want. Some folks will move on and some will complain and call people names----whatever. You don't see the benefits but I surely do. It doesn't make anyone smarter or dumber for liking anything they want and you really need to respect that. We don't all have to agree with your likes and dislikes.

This thread was supposed to be about the math involved. Whether you like FP or not the distribution model, number of passes, chance of accessing, and dynamics of touring have all changed.

It is helpful to understand how they are changing so that people can decide how to handle the future. What I like about the mathematics involved is that it provides some insight into what is possible for future changes.

I have been "studying" this for a long time - and the conversation around the ToT FP situation is new to me. I find it intriguing. There are many other things too... like why does DAK have the fewest number of FP available (and even less in the winter with less people wanting to ride Kali), has similar attendance numbers as DHS, but has much less stress on the day.

 

[bcrook]

I wonder if a significant portion of people are going to DAK in the morning (for their half day), not using FP in that park, and then heading over to DHS and MK for the afternoon and those more in demand fastpasses.

If this is so, that would explain the lack of need for tiers at DAK and the least amount of complaints.

It would also mean that DHS and MK are getting an abundance of extra people competing for the FP in those parks.

Attendance numbers are based on the first park entered. So if 33,000 people enter DHS and DAK then 5,000 leave DAK and head over to an evening at DHS with three FP in hand. The realized attendance numbers would be more like 38,000 at DHS and 28,000 at DAK. Or even less for DAK if another 5,000 went to MK. That could explain why DAK is not really overburdened yet.

And maybe this is why Disney is not really interested in people bouncing around with hoppers.

I wonder if the dynamics change a bit with Kali River Rapids becoming more of a key player - and causes more people to use up their FP in Animal Kingdom. It is also provides some insight into why AvatarLand is needed in that park.

 

[TooExcitedCantSleep]

This thread was supposed to be about the math involved. Whether you like FP or not the distribution model, number of passes, chance of accessing, and dynamics of touring have all changed.

It is helpful to understand how they are changing so that people can decide how to handle the future. What I like about the mathematics involved is that it provides some insight into what is possible for future changes.

I have been "studying" this for a long time - and the conversation around the ToT FP situation is new to me. I find it intriguing. There are many other things too... like why does DAK have the fewest number of FP available (and even less in the winter with less people wanting to ride Kali), has similar attendance numbers as DHS, but has much less stress on the day.

I completely agree that overall it's a fascinating discussion. I really hope this can get back on topic instead of the unnecessary judging of people who like FastPass+. Oh- and I'm not judging your reasons for being here....I find the math part of all of this to be very interesting to....so please keep calculating.

 

[clsteve]

I wonder if a significant portion of people are going to DAK in the morning (for their half day), not using FP in that park, and then heading over to DHS and MK for the afternoon and those more in demand fastpasses.

If this is so, that would explain the lack of need for tiers at DAK and the least amount of complaints.

It would also mean that DHS and MK are getting an abundance of extra people competing for the FP in those parks.

Attendance numbers are based on the first park entered. So if 33,000 people enter DHS and DAK then 5,000 leave DAK and head over to an evening at DHS with three FP in hand. The realized attendance numbers would be more like 38,000 at DHS and 28,000 at DAK. Or even less for DAK if another 5,000 went to MK. That could explain why DAK is not really overburdened yet.

And maybe this is why Disney is not really interested in people bouncing around with hoppers.

I wonder if the dynamics change a bit with Kali River Rapids becoming more of a key player - and causes more people to use up their FP in Animal Kingdom. It is also provides some insight into why AvatarLand is needed in that park.

One thing that makes this so difficult is the lack of visibility we have and may ever have into TDO's distribution strategy. I think it's safe to assume that it's not completely linear- or won't be in the future. So, how do the business rules behind this influence inter and intra Park capacity management. In other words, for the auto assignment feature for the 3 FP's, how are they distributed to influence DAK guests to stay in-Park longer? And, how are they deciding what times and combo of FP's are held out of the ressie system for same day after they use the autofill feature to influence the ressie customers to stay in one park for the day.

 

[estherhead]

I wonder if a significant portion of people are going to DAK in the morning (for their half day), not using FP in that park, and then heading over to DHS and MK for the afternoon and those more in demand fastpasses.

If this is so, that would explain the lack of need for tiers at DAK and the least amount of complaints.

It would also mean that DHS and MK are getting an abundance of extra people competing for the FP in those parks.

Attendance numbers are based on the first park entered. So if 33,000 people enter DHS and DAK then 5,000 leave DAK and head over to an evening at DHS with three FP in hand. The realized attendance numbers would be more like 38,000 at DHS and 28,000 at DAK. Or even less for DAK if another 5,000 went to MK. That could explain why DAK is not really overburdened yet.

And maybe this is why Disney is not really interested in people bouncing around with hoppers.

I wonder if the dynamics change a bit with Kali River Rapids becoming more of a key player - and causes more people to use up their FP in Animal Kingdom. It is also provides some insight into why AvatarLand is needed in that park.

This is exactly what we are doing. It's a no brainer. Head to DAK on an EMH morning. Safari, EE, Dinosaur, Primeval Whirl, and if so desired Kali & ITTBAB. And then it's 10:00 and you are done. And Kali has SUCH a cool line that even if it is 60 minutes, if you are done with everything else in DAK, it's worth it. Grab a snack and enjoy the gorgeous walk back to a great ride. We really can visit and enjoy DAK and not be part of the noon-time attendance count.

It's also possible at MK. If you go first thing in the morning, especially at an EMH you can do all of Fantasyland or Tomorrowland with no FP+ easily in 3 hours.

I feel like FP+ makes hoppers more appealing, not less.

So I'm not sure how Disney will handle that. If they are collecting numbers, how can they convince someone like me to change my mind and go elsewhere? Avatarland would definitely change our patterns. Especially if there were a nighttime show like World of Color. Other than that, I'm not sure how they could convince me. If I had 3 Epcot FP+ planned for that evening even giving me an extra FP at MK it might be a tough to change my mind. Especially if I had dinner reservations.

And I know people really want Epcot to be next, but DHS actually needs it more. Epcot has dinner, show, shopping appeal. DHS has ride appeal. And it needs way more. The attendance of those two parks is similar and even though their ride capacity is similar, Epcot can absorb a lot of people in it's other areas. So I think Epcot has another 5-6 years to wait. . Hopefully they can at least do little things to freshen up the front half in the next few years.

 

[bcrook]

One thing that makes this so difficult is the lack of visibility we have and may ever have into TDO's distribution strategy. I think it's safe to assume that it's not completely linear- or won't be in the future. So, how do the business rules behind this influence inter and intra Park capacity management. In other words, for the auto assignment feature for the 3 FP's, how are they distributed to influence DAK guests to stay in-Park longer? And, how are they deciding what times and combo of FP's are held out of the ressie system for same day after they use the autofill feature to influence the ressie customers to stay in one park for the day.

Right now it doesn't seem there is too much manipulation going on. I think people might be reporting discrepancies in what they see available.

The future could be rich with this type of customer "manipulation".

But right now I am just not reading about DAK as being a place of FP frustration. It appears Disney is not even trying to keep the half day people in that park. Or if they are trying to influence people to move that direction it is not working.

With only about 70,000 FP slots available and many of them superfluous, DAK's 35,000 peak time guests should be rioting over lack of FP options, but it is the most peaceful park. And that park has escaped tiers.

If half or more of the population leave early then maybe the actual population accessing the FP pool is more like 16000 people and the park can easily absorb that demand.

 

[JimmyV]

I feel like FP+ makes hoppers more appealing, not less.

I agree, but only for on site guests as of now. AP holders and off site guests will get reamed if they hop on a crowded day.

 

[JimmyV]

Right now it doesn't seem there is too much manipulation going on.

I suppose one thing they could do is to offer off site guests only afternoon return times at AK. If you scan your card at a kiosk and the system tells you that the only Safari/Kali/Everest times available are 1:00, 2:00 and 3:00, then they likely keep that person at that park all day. Which is fine, because if that peson leaves AK at lunch and heads over to DHS, they will get shut out of any meaningful FPs.

 

[JimmyV]

I disagree with you completely....

You disagree that early arrival is a better strategy for thorough touring? Hmm. That seems to go against all current reports, even by those who are enjoying FP+. Bringing this back to "math", the numbers suggest that SB lines increase as time marches forward, so early hours are better than later hours. I can't think of a math model that can refute that. (Other than really late hours after many people have left the park.) But, whatever.

 

[bcrook]

This is exactly what we are doing. It's a no brainer. Head to DAK on an EMH morning. Safari, EE, Dinosaur, Primeval Whirl, and if so desired Kali & ITTBAB. And then it's 10:00 and you are done. And Kali has SUCH a cool line that even if it is 60 minutes, if you are done with everything else in DAK, it's worth it. Grab a snack and enjoy the gorgeous walk back to a great ride. We really can visit and enjoy DAK and not be part of the noon-time attendance count.

It's also possible at MK. If you go first thing in the morning, especially at an EMH you can do all of Fantasyland or Tomorrowland with no FP+ easily in 3 hours.

I feel like FP+ makes hoppers more appealing, not less.

So I'm not sure how Disney will handle that. If they are collecting numbers, how can they convince someone like me to change my mind and go elsewhere? Avatarland would definitely change our patterns. Especially if there were a nighttime show like World of Color. Other than that, I'm not sure how they could convince me. If I had 3 Epcot FP+ planned for that evening even giving me an extra FP at MK it might be a tough to change my mind. Especially if I had dinner reservations.

And I know people really want Epcot to be next, but DHS actually needs it more. Epcot has dinner, show, shopping appeal. DHS has ride appeal. And it needs way more. The attendance of those two parks is similar and even though their ride capacity is similar, Epcot can absorb a lot of people in it's other areas. So I think Epcot has another 5-6 years to wait. . Hopefully they can at least do little things to freshen up the front half in the next few years.

I think hoppers work well in conjunction with rope drop, if that is not your thing...I am not sure. As Jimmy said, off site guests would have a terrible time hopping.

If I stay at the boardwalk area I would have to have a hopper for the reasons you mentioned about Epcot. Food and drink and wandering around.

but if downtown Disney is cool, maybe I will transition down there with everyone else in evening. Playing right into the hand of Disney.

I do agree too that DHS needs the next upgrade. Get rid of the tiers there first. How many ride slots would be needed to remove tiers? Hmmmmm... New question.

 

[clsteve]

Right now it doesn't seem there is too much manipulation going on. I think people might be reporting discrepancies in what they see available.

The future could be rich with this type of customer "manipulation".

But right now I am just not reading about DAK as being a place of FP frustration. It appears Disney is not even trying to keep the half day people in that park. Or if they are trying to influence people to move that direction it is not working.

With only about 70,000 FP slots available and many of them superfluous, DAK's 35,000 peak time guests should be rioting over lack of FP options, but it is the most peaceful park. And that park has escaped tiers.

If half or more of the population leave early then maybe the actual population accessing the FP pool is more like 16000 people and the park can easily absorb that demand.

This is exactly where I wonder if when they will use FP's to influence this- especially from an advance reservation perspective. Looking at the total Parks footprint, I think it's safe to assume they'd love to do a little "norming" across the footprint- turn a 7 Park and a 2 Park into a 5 and 4, from a capacity perspective. So, would they open a higher percentage of DAK FP's for advance reservation (say 90%) versus 60% for an MK or EPCOT to influence Park choice, opening the rest as capacity normed?

It would mean a great difference in touring plans and same day availability. Not saying it's happening now or in the very near future. But, something to keep an eye on since something caused the huge delay and cost overruns. It has to be the complex distribution rules behind this......

 

[bcrook]

I suppose one thing they could do is to offer off site guests only afternoon return times at AK. If you scan your card at a kiosk and the system tells you that the only Safari/Kali/Everest times available are 1:00, 2:00 and 3:00, then they likely keep that person at that park all day. Which is fine, because if that peson leaves AK at lunch and heads over to DHS, they will get shut out of any meaningful FPs.

I think that is what clsteve was hinting at. I think that is definitely coming, but I haven't seen evidence of this yet. Disney would be silly not to utilize this aspect of the MM system.

 

[bcrook]

This is exactly where I wonder if when they will use FP's to influence this- especially from an advance reservation perspective. Looking at the total Parks footprint, I think it's safe to assume they'd love to do a little "norming" across the footprint- turn a 7 Park and a 2 Park into a 5 and 4, from a capacity perspective. So, would they open a higher percentage of DAK FP's for advance reservation (say 90%) versus 60% for an MK or EPCOT to influence Park choice, opening the rest as capacity normed?

It would mean a great difference in touring plans and same day availability. Not saying it's happening now or in the very near future. But, something to keep an eye on since something caused the huge delay and cost overruns. It has to be the complex distribution rules behind this......

The possibilities are mind blowing. I think it could happen relatively soon. Actually I am surprised it hasn't already been in place. I guess it could lead to more negative feedback though if they "were caught" doing this right now.

On the other hand, it could be viewed as helpful if Disney could spin it as a touring plan strategy.

 

[iheartjuppy]

There's also the mathematical addition of time for families/groups and how legacy FP was handled vs. FP+ at the queue. Assuming the interaction is equal for FP- and FP+ at 15 seconds (time for guest to hand CM the FP and CM to wave them through, or time for guest to line up magic band and CM to wave them through, this is a high estimate but gives the idea). With FP- one guest could hold up the FP stack for their entire family at once with the same 15 second transaction time at check point one (assume a family of 5 for this example), and the entire family was waved through within the 15 second window and again at the second checkpoint (handing them over for all 5, same 15 second window). Total transaction time for CM interaction (line notwithstandin) for a party of five = 15+15 = 30 seconds.

With FP+ each guest must scan their own band, so checkpoint one goes from 15 seconds to 15 X guests so in this example, 1 minute, 15 seconds. Checkpoint two the same. So the FP- time was 30 seconds total interaction time, FP+ time is now 2 minutes 30 seconds interaction time for one family of five. And this adds up with each family/group. While single riders don't add to the burden, they won't necessarily alleviate it by going faster than they would have with FP- so they are a wash and there is nothing to counterbalance the additional time.

Now interaction time is unlikely to take as long as 15 seconds but even 3 seconds has a cumulative effect over the course of a day (much like traffic) because there are just flat out more interactions as it is now one-to-one guest-to-CM not group-to-CM.

Not a complaint, just an additional observation to be factored into the math

<-- fellow nerd.