FP+ Let's look at the math...

[JimmyV]

I'm going to be so sad to see if it just opens up with a traditional setup. Because that would mean Disney is ignoring the issues that have developed.

I just don't see where a FP return line could assemble outside of the ride's normal queue area. At least with Space Mountain, the line can stretch into Tomorrowland's plaza. And over at BTMRR, they can swing the FP queue over on the side by Tom Sawyer's Island. But if they open up the Mine Train with a Mickey outside the waiting area causing a massive FP return line to form outside of the ride, Fantasyland is going to be a nightmare. You are right that if this happens it will be proof that they aren't paying attention. But at this point, I have a hard time believing that they can ignore everything that has been posted here (which they read), and all the photos that have been posted to Twitter (which they have seen). They are going to have to get the FP return line indoors, out of the heat, out of the sun, and into some themed queue area or the villagers will storm the castle.

 

[bcrook]

Chiming in late on DAK...I think the reason DAK has had the least issues with this is because there are other things to do there other than rides. The two animal trails absorb a lot of people, and for substantial amounts of time. And the three shows. DAK is my favorite park because it is so beautiful, you can just chill there and have a great time. I think I spent 45 minutes watching those monkeys in Asia do acrobatics last time

Interesting comments. I like DAK too. And more restaurants are on the way...

Let's look at the profile at that park:

• The park itself absorbs people a lot of people on the trails and shows. (Is it really different than DHS or Epcot though?)
• The place clears out at three after the parade (is that part of the reason for getting rid of it? People won't know to leave?)
• Most of the rides only appeal to a fraction of the visitors (Everest height restriction and thrill ride, kali water ride, dinosaur rough and scary). Are the rides themselves self-limiting? Also single rider line at EE helps those thrill lovers.
• The safari appeals to all, but there are only 9000 FP to give away it represents a small part of the potential 100,000 needed there a day.
• People can enjoy rides with short waits at rope drop and and from 4:30-close.

How much time does a person actually need to worry about long lines in DAK? From 10:45 - 3:45? 5 hours? At Epcot, soarin and TT are battles from open to close. DHS open to close. MK open to close.

I wonder what percentage of people hop away from DAK to another park (what percentage of people have hoppers or APs?). I would imagine more than half of population leaves well before closing. Do they go to water parks? Back to resorts? DTD? Home?

DAK will need to start pulling its weight in regards to FP. As the line builds for Kali as it gets hotter, more people will bite the bullit in DAK and burn FP in that park.

 

[clsteve]

I just don't see where a FP return line could assemble outside of the ride's normal queue area. At least with Space Mountain, the line can stretch into Tomorrowland's plaza. And over at BTMRR, they can swing the FP queue over on the side by Tom Sawyer's Island. But if they open up the Mine Train with a Mickey outside the waiting area causing a massive FP return line to form outside of the ride, Fantasyland is going to be a nightmare. You are right that if this happens it will be proof that they aren't paying attention. But at this point, I have a hard time believing that they can ignore everything that has been posted here (which they read), and all the photos that have been posted to Twitter (which they have seen). They are going to have to get the FP return line indoors, out of the heat, out of the sun, and into some themed queue area or the villagers will storm the castle.

At least it's a much smaller and easier castle to storm.......

 

[mom2rtk]

They are going to have to get the FP return line indoors, out of the heat, out of the sun, and into some themed queue area or the villagers will storm the castle.

Belle's village isn't far away. I heard about the beastly way those villagers can behave........

 

[JimmyV]

I think that there is another facet to AK that is impactful. That park has more 8:00 a.m. openings than any other park. Much of the criticism of FP+ comes from commandos who are trying to maximize rides. Those commandos are also probably the most likely to make Rope Drops. If you make RD at AK, you can head straight for the Safari, then make a beeline for Everest, and, frankly, ride Everest multiple times as a SB before the line bumps up to even a modest 15 minute wait. And as you noted, the single rider line makes Everest a viable option throughout the day. Should you choose to do Kali in the morning, you can do that too with little wait. Touring at a brisk, but not ridiculous pace will allow you to knock off the Safari, Everest twice, and Kali all before 9:30. So with no tiering, all you need to obtain is a FP for the Safari and or Kali later in the day if you want to ride them a second time, one for Nemo if you don't want to wait in a long line, and perhaps one for Dinosaur if that is your cup of tea. Or substitute one of those for Primevel Whirl or another ride on Everest. Bottom line is that people who want to maximize their touring at AK need only get to the park by 7:50 to do so, and neither FP- nor FP+ matters all that much. Then the question becomes, do you hang around after you have done everything by noon, or do you leave. We don't hop, but use our AK day to do a nice, Signature meal because we are back at our resort in time to shower and change clothes in plenty of time to get dressed up.

 

[Paula Sedley-Burke]

Why not open one of the parks all night? Say it's every man/woman/child for themselves night! Just SB lines. No FP+. Be so cool. Ride as many rides as you like till you fall asleep! Then a certain percentage of people would not appear the next day too tired and dizzy having had their fix of Tot 5 times in a row..

 

[Huey]

I think there are many interesting points through this thread but still think data is the reason for FP+ as well as the reason it could have significant improvements in the future.

OP's logic is right, especially if you drove down to a minute by minute FP return time (which clearly isn't feasible) but which would result in almost no FP queue time if the same number of FP were equally distributed through the hour. Those minute by minute returns should be guaranteed a walk on.

What is obvious is that a FP+ return of say 2:40 to 3:40 for a princess M&G is really a return time of 3:20 to 3:40. You don't want to risk DD missing the parade so don't go before 3.00 which forces that whole hours worth of queue into a twenty minute slot, this is logistically horrific because the 3:40 to 4:40 may be skewed towards the 3:40 end of the hour because people deliberately booked after the parade. Once the bunching and backlog is created it is very difficult to mitigate unless the FP system is dynamic and adapting during the day.

So, a live computerised algorithm combining shortening and lengthening of FP windows, with an increase/decrease in FP number availability and a wider number of attractions in play could theoretically lead to reduced stand by and fast pass time for everyone and possibly even more than three FP per day (Surprise FP) and multiple park FP. It could also theoretically reduce the requirement for tiering (reaches for straws to clutch at them).

Certainly the number of people entering the park day by day and hour by hour can be used to predict FP usage and SB wait times once enough data is available.

I can see an app advancement which says; you are coming to splash between 2.00 and 3.00. If you come between 2:40 and 2:50 you can have an extra FP to ride POTC between 3:20 and 3:30. Given the above logic both should be a walk on so you get two rides which may have had a combined 40 minute wait (20 minute FP wait on SM and 20 minute stand by on POTC - I have experienced both) with less than half that wait. Now, this does benefit the user but more importantly keeps you out if queues and eating Dole Whips.

As a seasoned commando I know that the POTC wasn't a problem before, but it's more of one now. Without increasing the FP options you can never aim for narrowing return windows which offer "bait" to take the offer and move you to am area of the park Disney wants you in rather than where you want to be.

Hope that makes sense and offers a hint of optimism that there is a longer end game that can be played with the data. Of course, it could stay as is in which case I best get adapting *** I still want my Disney fix.

 

[ArwenMarie]

Interesting comments. I like DAK too. And more restaurants are on the way...

Let's look at the profile at that park:

• The park itself absorbs people a lot of people on the trails and shows. (Is it really different than DHS or Epcot though?)
• The place clears out at three after the parade (is that part of the reason for getting rid of it? People won't know to leave?)
• Most of the rides only appeal to a fraction of the visitors (Everest height restriction and thrill ride, kali water ride, dinosaur rough and scary). Are the rides themselves self-limiting? Also single rider line at EE helps those thrill lovers.
• The safari appeals to all, but there are only 9000 FP to give away it represents a small part of the potential 100,000 needed there a day.
• People can enjoy rides with short waits at rope drop and and from 4:30-close.

How much time does a person actually need to worry about long lines in DAK? From 10:45 - 3:45? 5 hours? At Epcot, soarin and TT are battles from open to close. DHS open to close. MK open to close.

I wonder what percentage of people hop away from DAK to another park (what percentage of people have hoppers or APs?). I would imagine more than half of population leaves well before closing. Do they go to water parks? Back to resorts? DTD? Home?

DAK will need to start pulling its weight in regards to FP. As the line builds for Kali as it gets hotter, more people will bite the bullit in DAK and burn FP in that park.

I think it is different than DHS...DHS has shows, but the park itself doesn't absorb people's attention like DAK. As for Epcot, I am always boggled that they let Soarin and TT back up like they do, yet they don't open WS at 9 am. I think a lot of people would love to tour it in the morning, especially people with kids. Let families go do their Agent P adventures in the morning! Makes no sense to me...they don't want to build more rides, yet they keep half the park closed til lunch.

That's a good point about Kali...we don't know what that will look like once it gets hotter.

 

[bcrook]

I think it is different than DHS...DHS has shows, but the park itself doesn't absorb people's attention like DAK. As for Epcot, I am always boggled that they let Soarin and TT back up like they do, yet they don't open WS at 9 am. I think a lot of people would love to tour it in the morning, especially people with kids. Let families go do their Agent P adventures in the morning! Makes no sense to me...they don't want to build more rides, yet they keep half the park closed til lunch.

That's a good point about Kali...we don't know what that will look like once it gets hotter.

It sure seems like you are right. The attendance at DAK is equal to DHS and slightly below Epcot and there are less rides. The guests have to go somewhere - so the argument that park absorbs them better makes sense.

But it is only working for half the day, and I guess that is why we are getting that evening show, Pandora, and improvements in Africa in conjunction with the new show opening.

During sustained peak season with more people getting on the FP train, DAK will become more in play. I will be surprised if tiers don't show up there this summer.

70,000 FP slots simply isn't enough to work.

 

[bcrook]

Good question. How many rides to get rid of tiers? They need to not only be rides but no height restriction rides.

No height restrictions would be a bonus!

Here is what MK has and it doesn't need tiers right now.

50,000 FP slots for High demand rides (Mountains, ETWB, Peter Pan)

Another 190,000 slots available for other rides and attractions. That comes out to 4 FP for every paying person in attendance based on 60,000 people (moderate level).

IF DHS was going to reach those numbers what would they need?

35,000 Attendance for the moderate - peak times. They would need 140,000 FP available.

Right now, this theme park has approximately 101,000. with 22,000 being high demand (RnRc and TSMM).

So I think they need a high demand ride that appeals to the masses and can handle 13,000 people a day.

AND then 27,000 more ride slots.

That means three more rides that can handle 10,000 FP slots (that is Splash Mountain territory).

So maybe it would be better to have one ride like that and three more simpler rides. Although One ride like Under the Sea would absorb 18,000 riders or more a day. The problem is... people don't necessarily choose rides like that for FP.

Here is what DHS needs to catch up with MK:

1. High Interest ride that can absorb 13,000 FP (Big Thunder capacity)
2. One high capacity low thrill ride (Under the Sea or Haunted Mansion type)
3. Two high interest rides with 8000 ride (think Peter Pan or even the tier 1 Maelstrom).

That is quite bit. And that doesn't even consider the fact that attendance would skyrocket. So I think there needs to be one more ride to handle more people in the park.

4. Another high interest family ride.

 

[ArwenMarie]

It sure seems like you are right. The attendance at DAK is equal to DHS and slightly below Epcot and there are less rides. The guests have to go somewhere - so the argument that park absorbs them better makes sense.

But it is only working for half the day, and I guess that is why we are getting that evening show, Pandora, and improvements in Africa in conjunction with the new show opening.

During sustained peak season with more people getting on the FP train, DAK will become more in play. I be surprised if tiers don't show up there this summer.

70,000 FP slots simply isn't enough to work.

The new Lion King theatre looks bigger. That will probably add to FP capacity for the park as well.

I think DAK will get tiers along with MK for the new Mine Train...and soon.

 

[Paula Sedley-Burke]

I was thinking beyond the single ride and that FP + is trying to achieve more of a touring plan? Ride A at x time, then B at y time , then C at z time. If they had option A , B and C that rotated the three main rides and handed people these options as they entered the park based on park entry time for day guests would this work?

 

[bcrook]

I was thinking beyond the single ride and that FP + is trying to achieve more of a touring plan? Ride A at x time, then B at y time , then C at z time. If they had option A , B and C that rotated the three main rides and handed people these options as they entered the park based on park entry time for day guests would this work?

Throw in a show, one standby line or two with a 30 minute wait, two meals and an evening fireworks and the day is scheduled.

I do believe this is supported with the story about CMs taking classes on how to utilize the Jedi Mind Tricks. Some of the cast members at popular rides holding the yellow signs have been over heard quietly saying to guests... "This is not the ride you're looking for, move along, move along..." We will see how effective it is during spring break.

 

[Paula Sedley-Burke]

Throw in a show, one standby line or two with a 30 minute wait, two meals and an evening fireworks and the day is scheduled.

exactly! Don't forget the Dumbo popcorn bucket. One for each kid plus one as one always gets dropped. Tears at 1:22 pm . Bucket refilled at 1:35 pm. Good to go.

 

[MaryKatesMom]

As a former commando and Disney vet, I've ridden everything multiple times. So I will not wait in long SB lines, especially when I never had to in the past.

I arrive at RD, hit the headliners, do TS for lunch and dinner in the parks, then spend the afternoon enjoying the other options, whatever they are, so I am really dreading my upcoming trips. I REMEMBER pre-FP wandering around MK with SB lines too long to get in without missing my dining reservations. Of course back then, before the CC hold, if I missed them, oh well. Now I'm on such a tight schedule.

Will I be able to stop and see any of the performers in the WS because I'm standing in line at Maelstorm? Certainly taking the fun out of my trip.

Should I cancel all of my lunch TS ADR's because I want to ride TSM twice or Soarin' twice? We love San Angel Inn, Le Chef's, Grand FLoridian Cafe and Sci Fi , they are a must do for lunch spots for us, but will I have time for a break from MK to take the boat over to GF for lunch because I will be in line at POTC. I don't want to use one of 3 FP's on that but will be bummed if I don't get to see it. Why go to MK if I can't see the things I love.

If I find myself limited to 3 attractions a day, my math is simple. I can get a luxury room in just about any city Club level for less than I pay for CL at BC. Thanks to Trip Advisor, I can find a private walking tours of any city for much less than the cost of Theme Park tickets and wander around looking at "new to me" cities with a private tour guide. I've done that with many places in the US. I've had wonderful magical trips elsewhere but I haven't with Montreal or Phoenix. Maybe it is time.

 

[FlipHipster]

No height restrictions would be a bonus!

Here is what MK has and it doesn't need tiers right now.

50,000 FP slots for High demand rides (Mountains, ETWB, Peter Pan)

Another 190,000 slots available for other rides and attractions. That comes out to 4 FP for every paying person in attendance based on 60,000 people (moderate level).

IF DHS was going to reach those numbers what would they need?

35,000 Attendance for the moderate - peak times. They would need 140,000 FP available.

Right now, this theme park has approximately 101,000. with 22,000 being high demand (RnRc and TSMM).

So I think they need a high demand ride that appeals to the masses and can handle 13,000 people a day.

AND then 27,000 more ride slots.

That means three more rides that can handle 10,000 FP slots (that is Splash Mountain territory).

So maybe it would be better to have one ride like that and three more simpler rides. Although One ride like Under the Sea would absorb 18,000 riders or more a day. The problem is... people don't necessarily choose rides like that for FP.

Here is what DHS needs to catch up with MK:

1. High Interest ride that can absorb 13,000 FP (Big Thunder capacity)
2. One high capacity low thrill ride (Under the Sea or Haunted Mansion type)
3. Two high interest rides with 8000 ride (think Peter Pan or even the tier 1 Maelstrom).

That is quite bit. And that doesn't even consider the fact that attendance would skyrocket. So I think there needs to be one more ride to handle more people in the park.

4. Another high interest family ride.

Sorry I am way behind in this thread and this may be old, but I saw this and just wanted to say what a great post.

I was convinced that FP+ was just going to highlight a capacity issue for certain parks/rides, teiring anyone? However after watching the infomercial on Destination last night and hearing Staggs and company pitch MM+, I am now convinced they expect guests to book their 3 rides a day and go back to the resort. Go parasailing, golf, all the things you have to pay a little more for. Whether it pans out or not, not so sure but it appears the lack of attractions at DHS will be offset by people only spending 1/2 day there. On-siters that is. Offsiters will "encouraged" to spend more time in the parks since they aren't getting their resort $'s.

I will concede that there is a lot more to WDW than just the parks and they are trying to spread guests around. I don't necessarily see that as a negative, it just doesn't work for us on the premise that we go for the parks and attractions. The resorts are nice but its the parks/attractions that put us in the resorts.

But that's just us..

 

[clsteve]

Sorry I am way behind in this thread and this may be old, but I saw this and just wanted to say what a great post.

I was convinced that FP+ was just going to highlight a capacity issue for certain parks/rides, teiring anyone? However after watching the infomercial on Destination last night and hearing Staggs and company pitch MM+, I am now convinced they expect guests to book their 3 rides a day and go back to the resort. Go parasailing, golf, all the things you have to pay a little more for. Whether it pans out or not, not so sure but it appears the lack of attractions at DHS will be offset by people only spending 1/2 day there. On-siters that is. Offsiters will "encouraged" to spend more time in the parks since they aren't getting their resort $'s.

I will concede that there is a lot more to WDW than just the parks and they are trying to spread guests around. I don't necessarily see that as a negative, it just doesn't work for us on the premise that we go for the parks and attractions. The resorts are nice but its the parks/attractions that put us in the resorts.

But that's just us..

It's a very interesting argument or debate whether TDO is now more of a Parks Company or more of a Hotel/Timeshare Company. There are some interesting trends, backed by investment priorities and earnings (pointed out by many) that the needle may be moving to the right....

 

[FlipHipster]

It's a very interesting argument or debate whether TDO is now more of a Parks Company or more of a Hotel/Timeshare Company. There are some interesting trends, backed by investment priorities and earnings (pointed out by many) that the needle may be moving to the right....

No doubt. Maybe in 2 years or so it will start swinging back. I would love to see Star Wars land but 1/2 of me is glad they haven't built it yet. I'm not sure the current cadre could pull it off, not their forte and you don't want to be known as the guy that screwed up Star Wars Land.

Build Poly DVC, buy some more IP then in 2 years hand it to someone who can put the magic back in MK.

And yeah the FP math doesn't add up for me. I think adv booking kills it IMO. I know that's the sexy hook but it introduces too many issues. Add in a mobile/web app that lets you book from anywhere and you have really changed the game. If they were hard to get before....

 

[clsteve]

No doubt. Maybe in 2 years or so it will start swinging back. I would love to see Star Wars land but 1/2 of me is glad they haven't built it yet. I'm not sure the current cadre could pull it off, not their forte and you don't want to be known as the guy that screwed up Star Wars Land.

Build Poly DVC, buy some more IP then in 2 years hand it to someone who can put the magic back in MK.

And yeah the FP math doesn't add up for me. I think adv booking kills it IMO. I know that's the sexy hook but it introduces too many issues. Add in a mobile/web app that lets you book from anywhere and you have really changed the game. If they were hard to get before....

So very true....