FP+ Let's look at the math...

[magicbob]

The possibilities are mind blowing. I think it could happen relatively soon. Actually I am surprised it hasn't already been in place. I guess it could lead to more negative feedback though if they "were caught" doing this right now.

On the other hand, it could be viewed as helpful if Disney could spin it as a touring plan strategy.

Influencing behavior and pushing people toward attractions with capacity to spare are absolutely part of the plan. Of course, the spin will be that they are guiding people toward less busy attractions in order to minimize their waits.

 

[bcrook]

There's also the mathematical addition of time for families/groups and how legacy FP was handled vs. FP+ at the queue. Assuming the interaction is equal for FP- and FP+ at 15 seconds (time for guest to hand CM the FP and CM to wave them through, or time for guest to line up magic band and CM to wave them through, this is a high estimate but gives the idea). With FP- one guest could hold up the FP stack for their entire family at once with the same 15 second transaction time at check point one (assume a family of 5 for this example), and the entire family was waved through within the 15 second window and again at the second checkpoint (handing them over for all 5, same 15 second window). Total transaction time for CM interaction (line notwithstandin) for a party of five = 15+15 = 30 seconds.

With FP+ each guest must scan their own band, so checkpoint one goes from 15 seconds to 15 X guests so in this example, 1 minute, 15 seconds. Checkpoint two the same. So the FP- time was 30 seconds total interaction time, FP+ time is now 2 minutes 30 seconds interaction time for one family of five. And this adds up with each family/group. While single riders don't add to the burden, they won't necessarily alleviate it by going faster than they would have with FP- so they are a wash and there is nothing to counterbalance the additional time.

Now interaction time is unlikely to take as long as 15 seconds but even 3 seconds has a cumulative effect over the course of a day (much like traffic) because there are just flat out more interactions as it is now one-to-one guest-to-CM not group-to-CM.

Not a complaint, just an additional observation to be factored into the math

<-- fellow nerd.

I am so wrapped up in this, I am thinking about offering it as an elective in my school. The math, psychology, systems thinking, designing, computer programming, surveying techniques, history, and marketing is fascinating. Just looking at ride capacity and attendance is an exercise in numbers sense.

JimmyV has written a lot about your mathematical analysis on a couple of other threads. Those seconds do add up, and the amazing thing there is that the problem wasn't identified in earlier testing.

 

[iheartjuppy]

I will go take a look for JimmyV's posts, for sure This traffic infographic (not my creation, just a nerdy fan of it) also illustrates the issue pretty well, especially imagining the "oh my card is in here somewhere" guests who take longer than the factored in 15 seconds, building up the "traffic" even more

 

[wookiebeck]

Eventually it could balance out if the people who like to ride a lot of rides in a day downgrade their expectations, ride less rides, decrease the demand or percentage of those riding. That will take a few cycles through vacations - could take years.

I think that is the only wild card Disney has to play with. Decrease demand for the rides... They need a lot of people to accept less rides while at the same time getting more (different) people to lock into the fastpass system and use their three. The more diverse population using FP would be ideal for Disney, as long as a large percentage of the population doesn't bail on going to Disney in the future.

It does seem like a huge gamble and they are fighting against the math.

Why do you think the TV spot's tag line is "The best part of a Disney vacation isn't the parks, it's the resort!" Paraphrasing, although that is the gist of it.

It isn't how fast the changes take place, but the direction of the change.

 

[disneymagicgirl]

And if you want to get fancy and all with the math, the Erlang C formula used in telecom could prove useful.

Substitute "Guests" for calls and "Ride Slots" for agents/servers.

The Erlang C formula expresses the probability that an arriving customer will need to queue (as opposed to immediately being served). Erlang C assumes an infinite population of sources, which jointly offer traffic of A erlangs to N servers. However, if all the servers are busy when a request arrives from a source, the request is queued. An unlimited number of requests may be held in the queue in this way simultaneously. This formula calculates the probability of queuing offered traffic, assuming that blocked calls stay in the system until they can be handled. The Erlang C formula assumes that callers never hang up while in queue, that all calls begin and end in the same time period being considered, and that callers never try to call back after having hung up while in queue. These deficiencies make the formula predict that more agents should be used than are really needed to maintain a desired service level.

P_W = {{\frac{A^N}{N!} \frac{N}{N - A}} \over \sum_{i=0}^{N-1} \frac{A^i}{i!} + \frac{A^N}{N!} \frac{N}{N - A}}

where:
A is the total traffic offered in units of erlangs
N is the number of servers
PW is the probability that a customer has to wait for service.

It is assumed that the call arrivals can be modeled by a Poisson process and that call holding times are described by a negative exponential distribution.

 

[redrosesix]

subbing - I love this stuff but I'm too sleepy to read it right now

I still think the biggest issue is that if you give out too many FPs, at some point none of the SB guests will be able to ride. This is why I think we won't be getting more than 3, or at least much more than 3, per day.

I find it strange that Disney gave FP+ riders priority over SB, as opposed to the old system where they took some from each line. By doing so, they've completely limited what they can do with the system.

And I don't think I could tour a park where every single ride I did was set to a schedule.

 

[JimmyV]

subbing - I love this stuff but I'm too sleepy to read it right now

I still think the biggest issue is that if you give out too many FPs, at some point none of the SB guests will be able to ride. This is why I think we won't be getting more than 3, or at least much more than 3, per day.

I find it strange that Disney gave FP+ riders priority over SB, as opposed to the old system where they took some from each line. By doing so, they've completely limited what they can do with the system.

And I don't think I could tour a park where every single ride I did was set to a schedule.

The real test will come when the Mine Train opens. 90% of the guests will want to try to get a FP for it. Not sure what happens on a day when there are 70,000 people in the park. That ride could become "by appointment only". I'm not sure how a standby person will be able to ride after, say, 11:00 a.m. The way Disney handles that ride will speak volumes as to the future of, and math associated with FP+ in terms of percentage of ride capacity, how many slots they save for "day of" guests, how they blend the FP and SB lines, etc.

 

[mom2rtk]

The real test will come when the Mine Train opens. 90% of the guests will want to try to get a FP for it. Not sure what happens on a day when there are 70,000 people in the park. That ride could become "by appointment only". I'm not sure how a standby person will be able to ride after, say, 11:00 a.m. The way Disney handles that ride will speak volumes as to the future of, and math associated with FP+ in terms of percentage of ride capacity, how many slots they save for "day of" guests, how they blend the FP and SB lines, etc.

I wonder if they will be conservative in their initial issuing of fastpasses for this ride, in case they have issues that come up, causing them to have less throughput than anticipated. Of course there would be no shortage of SB riders waiting in the wings, but it could make scoring a FP at all that much harder.

 

[maehlers]

I don't really care if the new system reduces my wait time drastically if I only get to ride three rides. Even if they double the FPs and give me six FPs, only six attractions in a day isn't worth the price of admission.

I have a question... One of the video blogs I watch went over how she uses FP+ and said that once they use their first FP they get on My Disney Experience via their phone and choose another. The way she explained it was that you could only have 3 "in hand" at a time. But she stays onsite. Perhaps this is false or maybe I misunderstood?




(Planning for trip in late August.)

 

[practicallyperfect77]

I have a question... One of the video blogs I watch went over how she uses FP+ and said that once they use their first FP they get on My Disney Experience via their phone and choose another. The way she explained it was that you could only have 3 "in hand" at a time. But she stays onsite. Perhaps this is false or maybe I misunderstood?




(Planning for trip in late August.)

I have never heard of anyone getting more than 3 FP+. There was a glitch that allowed you to circumvent the system, but that has been fixed. 3 it is.

 

[bcrook]

I have a question... One of the video blogs I watch went over how she uses FP+ and said that once they use their first FP they get on My Disney Experience via their phone and choose another. The way she explained it was that you could only have 3 "in hand" at a time. But she stays onsite. Perhaps this is false or maybe I misunderstood?




(Planning for trip in late August.)

That is not the case. Three a day. One park no repeats.
This thread is exploring the math behind why the number is three and why it is going to be very difficult to add anymore after the three.

But, the math strongly supports the number of three could go to two during high peak times.

 

[estherhead]

I think hoppers work well in conjunction with rope drop, if that is not your thing...I am not sure. As Jimmy said, off site guests would have a terrible time hopping. If I stay at the boardwalk area I would have to have a hopper for the reasons you mentioned about Epcot. Food and drink and wandering around. but if downtown Disney is cool, maybe I will transition down there with everyone else in evening. Playing right into the hand of Disney. I do agree too that DHS needs the next upgrade. Get rid of the tiers there first. How many ride slots would be needed to remove tiers? Hmmmmm... New question.

Good question. How many rides to get rid of tiers? They need to not only be rides but no height restriction rides.

 

[magicbob]

My kid could easily pull 3 paper FP's for TOT in one day. Easily.

But how many babies in strollers did he/she shove out of the way while bolting through the park to accomplish that?

We now return to our regularly scheduled mathematics programming.

 

[clsteve]

I wonder if they will be conservative in their initial issuing of fastpasses for this ride, in case they have issues that come up, causing them to have less throughput than anticipated. Of course there would be no shortage of SB riders waiting in the wings, but it could make scoring a FP at all that much harder.

The When and How they open it up for FP reservations is going to be interesting, as well.

How much do they want to telegraph the grand opening date? Do they then tier it at MK or throw it in the pool with everything else? Do they not FP for the first month or so?

Lots of interesting scenarios with the dwarf train......

 

[mom2rtk]

The When and How they open it up for FP reservations is going to be interesting, as well.

How much do they want to telegraph the grand opening date? Do they then tier it at MK or throw it in the pool with everything else? Do they not FP for the first month or so?

Lots of interesting scenarios with the dwarf train......

I agree. Lots of different directions this could go. I wouldn't be surprised to see it more like the Wishes and MSEP FPs and not reliably available 60 days out for a while. Someone will just log in one day and stumble across it and notices will start showing up here.

Definitely going to be interesting to see roll out.

 

[clsteve]

I agree. Lots of different directions this could go. I wouldn't be surprised to see it more like the Wishes and MSEP FPs and not reliably available 60 days out for a while. Someone will just log in one day and stumble across it and notices will start showing up here.

Definitely going to be interesting to see roll out.

And the queue setup will be very telling- especially with the FP line issue during the last holiday weekend. How are the FP and SB queues the same or different from other rides since they now have the opportunity with 7DMT to make queue changes they don't with existing rides.

Are the Mickeys (and the number of them) the same and in the same spots, is the FP side more covered and more "interactive".... things like that

 

[ArwenMarie]

Personally, I would rather pay that "pretty penny" and get an Unlimited Express Pass and not have to worry about FP's and long lines.
I wish Disney would implement something like that for their guests. As much as Disney charges for their deluxe resorts you would think they would be offered some perks in the parks besides just EMH.

I know some people are very much against this but, I do not understand why.. I mean this is a part of life, many places of business charge for "extas". If you go to a concert you pay more for sitting at the front of the stage, if you stay at a hotel you pay more for the Club Level, if you shop at Sam's you pay a higher membership fee for the better sales and perks. The list goes on and on.

Disney does have an Unlimited Express Pass...the VIP Tour, $1800 bucks for six hours for ten people.

So, can they offer it? They already do and we know what the price is..very high!

 

[ArwenMarie]

In fact, that is why I still think they will be opening FP up to more than one park per day, because considering the parks themselves as the aggregate increases the distribution yield of attractions.

But wouldn't that essentially be removing the tiers? I guess they could tier all four parks, but tier them put together.

 

[mom2rtk]

And the queue setup will be very telling- especially with the FP line issue during the last holiday weekend. How are the FP and SB queues the same or different from other rides since they now have the opportunity with 7DMT to make queue changes they don't with existing rides.

Are the Mickeys (and the number of them) the same and in the same spots, is the FP side more covered and more "interactive".... things like that

That really will be interesting. I'm going to be so sad to see if it just opens up with a traditional setup. Because that would mean Disney is ignoring the issues that have developed.

But wouldn't that essentially be removing the tiers? I guess they could tier all four parks, but tier them put together.

I agree. They will have to incorporate tiering into their "fix" of the hopping issue. Otherwise DHS and Epcot will just become half day parks for everyone. Maybe this is the point at which they will go ahead and tier the other parks, and allow one tier 1 FP per day and two tier 2 FPs per day, regardless of park?

Otherwise, everyone would hop between DHS and Epcot and easily defeat the purpose of tiering.

 

[ArwenMarie]

Chiming in late on DAK...I think the reason DAK has had the least issues with this is because there are other things to do there other than rides. The two animal trails absorb a lot of people, and for substantial amounts of time. And the three shows. DAK is my favorite park because it is so beautiful, you can just chill there and have a great time. I think I spent 45 minutes watching those monkeys in Asia do acrobatics last time