FP+ Details Are Out!

[Robo]

Well, just wait until the same day pool goes down. While opening early and not holding people for an internal rope drop has made a huge difference, I think the prospect of them running out even sooner is likely to turn even the improved system into a stressful situation again.

We also need to consider the possibility of "same-day, on-line FastPass PLUS" bookings in this mix.
If that is a part of the mix, consider what would happen at, say, 8:30AM if that was the time that the FP+ computer system started accepting same-day FP+ reservations.
The "running of the bulls" could become (largely) "virtual" as many guests on-line all at once, were trying for remaining TSMM FP's.
And, that is only for DHS.
Soarin', Test Track, Exp. Everest, Safari, Space Mtn. (et al) would all likely generate their own eddy current of
on-line hopefuls.

 

[doconeill]

I thought your number 2 said headliners might be gone already by same day. My number 4 is happiness and light for everyone. Enough prebooking slots to make everyone happy. But also enough same day slots (even fore headliners) to make all those folks happy..... assume a total number of same day slots as they have now.

As I said, worst case numbers say they'd be gone.

Either 2 or 3 can be unicorns and sunshine as well, at least to the level it used to be, if predicted numbers are wrong.

But regardless, there will still be some who won't be happy because they still couldn't get a TSM Fastpass and the wait is 2+ hours long.

 

[mom2rtk]

We also need to consider the possibility of "same-day, on-line FastPass PLUS" bookings in this mix.
If that is a part of the mix, consider what would happen at, say, 8:30AM if that was the time that the FP+ computer system started accepting same-day FP+ reservations.
The "running of the bulls" could become (largely) "virtual" as guests on-line all at once, were trying for remaining TSMM FP's.
And, that is only for DHS.
Soarin', Test Track, Exp. Everest, Safari, Space Mtn. (et al) would all likely generate their own eddy current of
on-line hopefuls.

Just how I want to start a relaxing day on vacation.

At least Disney has reliable IT systems so it's not like the system would just freeze up or crash while I was trying to make same-day FP reservations, right?

 

[Shaden]

they will be able to have a better prediction on FP+ levels and can put the availability of an unused FP+ into the most available time slot.

so if a FP+ for space mountain was for a 1pm-2pm return and the guest didn't use it or change it to another attraction, at 2:01 that slot goes back into the system and can be distributed into a time slot where FP+ usage isn't scheduled to be maxed out. now, if there are no slots left int he day with availabiilty, then yes, i would say that FP+ is gone. however, the real bene, is that they have realtime data to know every minute to what level the FP+ crowds are at each attraction. i think the key will be to learn to constantly check the kiosks as availability will constantly be changing. the analogy i've used before is the 'jobs board' on the Bee-Movie...that's what will be going on in the background with the FP+ system. personally i think it would be awesome to put it on a jumbotron infront of each attraction to see the availabillity fluctuate constantly.

This actually makes no sense.

If a FP isn't used, its gone. It can't go into the system for a time slot where FP+ usage isn't maxed out, because there would already be a spot there !

Each ride has a maximum# of riders/hour. Lets say its 100, makes it easy and lets assume they are all FPs, since it doesn't effect the equation anyway.

So from 1-2 all the FPs are booked. but from 3-4 only 65 of the 100 slots are booked. If I miss my FP from 1-2 ... you can't ADD a slot from 3-4 ... you can still only have 100 riders between 3 and 4.

 

[mom2rtk]

Either 2 or 3 can be unicorns and sunshine as well, at least to the level it used to be, if predicted numbers are wrong.

OK, as long as I get unicorns AND sunshine.

 

[mom2rtk]

This actually makes no sense.

If a FP isn't used, its gone. It can't go into the system for a time slot where FP+ usage isn't maxed out, because there would already be a spot there !

Each ride has a maximum# of riders/hour. Lets say its 100, makes it easy and lets assume they are all FPs, since it doesn't effect the equation anyway.

So from 1-2 all the FPs are booked. but from 3-4 only 65 of the 100 slots are booked. If I miss my FP from 1-2 ... you can't ADD a slot from 3-4 ... you can still only have 100 riders between 3 and 4.

That's correct. The missed spots would have already been filled by someone brave enough to try standby.

 

[ArwenMarie]

Furthermore, does one really think Disney will create a FP+ system where it's only for prebookings and that the prebookers are the only ones who get to use the kiosks to mix & match their FP+'s while the same day "have nots" are in stand by lines, looking on in horror?

I don't see why not. It's not like they are banning people from riding unless they prebooked, it would just be standby.

Let's say there is a family planning a big vacation...resort, food, etc. They log in 60 days ahead to get their FP+. Nothing good is available. That family is still within the window where they can cancel, they probably haven't even paid their balance yet. I would think the priority for Disney is going be to make sure that their guests who are buying vacation packages get the ride package they want, even if it means there are hardly any same-day FPs left for a particular day.

 

[Robo]

This actually makes no sense.

If a FP isn't used, its gone. It can't go into the system for a time slot where FP+ usage isn't maxed out, because there would already be a spot there !

Each ride has a maximum# of riders/hour. Lets say its 100, makes it easy and lets assume they are all FPs, since it doesn't effect the equation anyway.

So from 1-2 all the FPs are booked. but from 3-4 only 65 of the 100 slots are booked. If I miss my FP from 1-2 ... you can't ADD a slot from 3-4 ... you can still only have 100 riders between 3 and 4.

You first distinguish "FP slots" from "FP riders," but then you say that if 45 of the FP slots are not filled, they can't fill them with riders.

What am I not getting?

 

[Shaden]

You first distinguish "FP slots" from "FP riders," but then you say that if 45 of the FP slots are not filled, they can't fill them with riders.

What am I not getting?

No no, you are missing the point, the point is that if someone skips/misses their fast pass from 1 - 2 ... they can't add the FP back into the system to be used at a later time. The riders/hour capacity does not change.

So if you can do 100 riders per hour, and I have a ride booked for 1-2 but miss it, you can't just add that FP back into the system to be used from 3-4, from 3-4 there can still only be 100 riders and either all those spots are booked, or they aren't.

 

[Robo]

No no, you are missing the point, the point is that if someone skips/misses their fast pass from 1 - 2 ... they can't add the FP back into the system to be used at a later time. The riders/hour capacity does not change.

So if you can do 100 riders per hour, and I have a ride booked for 1-2 but miss it, you can't just add that FP back into the system to be used from 3-4, from 3-4 there can still only be 100 riders and either all those spots are booked, or they aren't.

But, YOU said that there were 45 unclaimed FP slots in the 3-4 hour.

Filling them with riders who originally had 1-2PM booked would not cause the riders-per-hour to go off course.
You neglect to factor in that the standby line (actually BOTH lines) was "REDUCED" by the number of "FP no-shows" in the 1-2PM hour
and those guests who would have ridden a bit "later" rode a bit "sooner."
Adding those previous "FP no-shows" to fill available, "planned-for" FP positions should work.

 

[damo]

No no, you are missing the point, the point is that if someone skips/misses their fast pass from 1 - 2 ... they can't add the FP back into the system to be used at a later time. The riders/hour capacity does not change.

So if you can do 100 riders per hour, and I have a ride booked for 1-2 but miss it, you can't just add that FP back into the system to be used from 3-4, from 3-4 there can still only be 100 riders and either all those spots are booked, or they aren't.

Sure it can. It is just like letting someone go in front of you. As long as the fastpass line wasn't empty, there is still a space available but the time just gets pushed back. This is the same argument as people not using their fastpasses until the end of the day. The space doesn't disappear, it just gets moved back.

If 100 people are in line and number 50 jumps out, that means that number 100 will get to ride a bit earlier and there will be a bit of time leftover at the end. This just moves everyone else's time up by one person. That time can be filled at any time during the day.

This is the biggest thing that people couldn't understand about holding fastpasses until the end of the day.

 

[Shaden]

But, YOU said that there were 45 unclaimed FP slots in the 3-4 hour.

Filling them with riders who originally had 1-2PM booked would not cause the riders-per-hour to go of course.

No, you aren't understanding it, there are 45 unused spots, you can not ADD the spot that was missed from 1-2 into that slot, you can't increase the number to 46 unused spots. Someone can book any of those 45, but the missed slot from 1-2 can not be added into the system for a later time, because you can not increase the capacity at a later time. You can still only have 100 riders per hour.

 

[Robo]

Sure it can. It is just like letting someone go in front of you. As long as the fastpass line wasn't empty, there is still a space available but the time just gets pushed back. This is the same argument as people not using their fastpasses until the end of the day. The space doesn't disappear, it just gets moved back.

If 100 people are in line and number 50 jumps out, that means that number 100 will get to ride a bit earlier and there will be a bit of time leftover at the end. This just moves everyone else's time up by one person. That time can be filled at any time during the day.

This is the biggest thing that people couldn't understand about holding fastpasses until the end of the day.

Bingo!

 

[damo]

No, you aren't understanding it, there are 45 unused spots, you can not ADD the spot that was missed from 1-2 into that slot, you can't increase the number to 46 unused spots. Someone can book any of those 45, but the missed slot from 1-2 can not be added into the system for a later time, because you can not increase the capacity at a later time. You can still only have 100 riders per hour.

That would only work if there is nobody to fill the missed spot. However, there is a continual stream of fastpass users so everyone just moves up and the open space keeps being pushed to the end.

Everyone gets to ride one person sooner until the time where an extra person is added back in.

 

[Shaden]

Sure it can. It is just like letting someone go in front of you. As long as the fastpass line wasn't empty, there is still a space available but the time just gets pushed back. This is the same argument as people not using their fastpasses until the end of the day. The space doesn't disappear, it just gets moved back.

If 100 people are in line and number 50 jumps out, that means that number 100 will get to ride a bit earlier and there will be a bit of time leftover at the end. This just moves everyone else's time up by one person. That time can be filled at any time during the day.

This is the biggest thing that people couldn't understand about holding fastpasses until the end of the day.

No,

Ok, this is actually really simple.

Each ride has a maximum capacity per minute/hour/day. We will pretend that number is 100/hr.

You can divide that number up any way you like it, 25 standby, 75 FP, 50/50, or 100 FP 0 SB. The capacity does NOT change.

Now, IF you want to insist that there are standbys as well, I can do this, although its much easier to prove my point using only FPs.

You can not add a missed time slot from one time to a later time, because you can not change capacity. If the ride is running under capacity, then of course there is space, but you aren't adding a slot back into the system, you are just using unbooked capacity later in the day.

If between 8am and 9am only 70 people ride the ride, you can't add those 30 spots later in the day and have 130 people ride between 3-4.

If I book a FP from 1-2, and I don't show up. You can not add that FP into the system at a later time.

Even if someone from standby takes my spot, there are an unlimited number of standby people, they keep coming, and you don't really impact the levels of standby later by allowing people in earlier.

So again, put it in numbers, if we have a 50/50 split of capacity, and I book an FP from 1-2, and don't show up, sure someone from Standby rides instead. But I can't add that FP spot later in the day, I can reassign a standby slot as FP, and from 3-4 I can split it 51/49. But I can not ADD a spot.

Of course the problem with that scenario is that, as I noted, the supply of standby is not really finite for all intent and purpose.

Its not like there are 600 standby riders a day, so as long as you average 50/hour, you will get them all done. If you let 51 ride one hour, there are still 50 waiting for every other hour.

You can not create more capacity.

 

[Shaden]

That would only work if there is nobody to fill the missed spot. However, there is a continual stream of fastpass users so everyone just moves up and the open space keeps being pushed to the end.

Everyone gets to ride one person sooner until the time where an extra person is added back in.

And no, that's not true, FPs are booked in a certain time Frame based on a capacity over time split between SB and FP riders.

This is especially true with pre-booked FPs.

If I book my FP for the 3-4 hour time slot 60 days out.

And between 9am and 3pm 100 people don't show up for their FPs, I am not going to show up an hour early and say, here let me use my FP ...

 

[DonaldTDuck]

We also need to consider the possibility of "same-day, on-line FastPass PLUS" bookings in this mix.
If that is a part of the mix, consider what would happen at, say, 8:30AM if that was the time that the FP+ computer system started accepting same-day FP+ reservations.
The "running of the bulls" could become (largely) "virtual" as many guests on-line all at once, were trying for remaining TSMM FP's.
And, that is only for DHS.
Soarin', Test Track, Exp. Everest, Safari, Space Mtn. (et al) would all likely generate their own eddy current of
on-line hopefuls.

I don't think the morning of will be a virtual stampede. I think there will be few people booking attractions 60 days out. And of those, they will be limited by the tiering to one headliner. BUT as the day approaches, more people will be firm in their plans and start taking all those available spots, especially for TSMM and Soarin'. I think people will get in from one park, get out the smart phone, or room phone if on property, and book for the next day. Same day fps for those 2 rides could easily be gone. Maybe EE too.
I still think this has New Coke written all over it. In NC's case, research was done wrong. In this case, research is impossible because you can't test it as it will be used because it will affect 60,000 people or more and it must be seen how it will affect all of them. Those tests they've done have no relationship to what will actually happen. If Coke can screw up this big, and Gaylord Entertainment can close Opryland to open a mall that can never catch up to Opryland's profits, then even the geniuses at Disney can screw up. I only wander if they can back off this decision like Coke did, fast and thoroughly.

 

[doconeill]

No,

Ok, this is actually really simple.

Each ride has a maximum capacity per minute/hour/day. We will pretend that number is 100/hr.

You can divide that number up any way you like it, 25 standby, 75 FP, 50/50, or 100 FP 0 SB. The capacity does NOT change.

Now, IF you want to insist that there are standbys as well, I can do this, although its much easier to prove my point using only FPs.

You can not add a missed time slot from one time to a later time, because you can not change capacity. If the ride is running under capacity, then of course there is space, but you aren't adding a slot back into the system, you are just using unbooked capacity later in the day.

If between 8am and 9am only 70 people ride the ride, you can't add those 30 spots later in the day and have 130 people ride between 3-4.

If I book a FP from 1-2, and I don't show up. You can not add that FP into the system at a later time.

Even if someone from standby takes my spot, there are an unlimited number of standby people, they keep coming, and you don't really impact the levels of standby later by allowing people in earlier.

So again, put it in numbers, if we have a 50/50 split of capacity, and I book an FP from 1-2, and don't show up, sure someone from Standby rides instead. But I can't add that FP spot later in the day, I can reassign a standby slot as FP, and from 3-4 I can split it 51/49. But I can not ADD a spot.

Of course the problem with that scenario is that, as I noted, the supply of standby is not really finite for all intent and purpose.

Its not like there are 600 standby riders a day, so as long as you average 50/hour, you will get them all done. If you let 51 ride one hour, there are still 50 waiting for every other hour.

You can not create more capacity.

But you are assuming that the standby riders are in a rigid time as well, but they are not. Especially when you want to apply an "endless supply" of standby riders.

If a FP rider misses their slot, then the standby line moves ahead by one, compared if the FP rider showed up on time.

Then, when the FP takes a later slot, it just pushed back the standby riders after that back to their original slots.

Net effect? zero.

Ancient writeup about it.

 

[d1gitman]

This actually makes no sense.

If a FP isn't used, its gone. It can't go into the system for a time slot where FP+ usage isn't maxed out, because there would already be a spot there !

Each ride has a maximum# of riders/hour. Lets say its 100, makes it easy and lets assume they are all FPs, since it doesn't effect the equation anyway.

So from 1-2 all the FPs are booked. but from 3-4 only 65 of the 100 slots are booked. If I miss my FP from 1-2 ... you can't ADD a slot from 3-4 ... you can still only have 100 riders between 3 and 4.

actually it makes perfect sense....if your slot is 1:00-2:00 and you miss it, at 2:01 your slot is back in teh system and the virtual grouping from 2:10-3:10 have an added slot...if 2:10-3:10 is at 100% capacity with no room to add the missed FP+, it can just continue to scan the system for the next virtual grouping with availability. very simple, very effective...at least in my mind

 

[d1gitman]

And no, that's not true, FPs are booked in a certain time Frame based on a capacity over time split between SB and FP riders.

This is especially true with pre-booked FPs.

If I book my FP for the 3-4 hour time slot 60 days out.

And between 9am and 3pm 100 people don't show up for their FPs, I am not going to show up an hour early and say, here let me use my FP ...

correct.

however, i believe that the more frequently people use the system, the better it functions. if people check the kiosks (or smartphones) often, the will have access to these recaptured openings and have the option to take advantage by switching with one that they already have, or booking as one of their original FP+, thus filling in the recaptured availability.

the FP+ system won't and can't be 100% efficient but it can be more efficient than the current FP system. right now, if 100 people skip their FP within the same time frame, there is no way to recapture that other than for Disney to manually put back into the system by way of turning on the FP machine again and distributing for the later return times.

however, if some of the slots missed are recaptured more closeley to the missed time frame, it allows them to more effectively "fill in all the available spaces". the net effect to guests is more useable FP+ openings than under the current system.

If there are 1,000 FP+ openings per day alloted for Space Mountain and currently the efficiency is 70%, thats only 700 slots being used with the other 300 taken but not used being used. lets say the FP+ system achieves 90% efficiency, that's 200 more openings re-released back to the guests throughout the day. it also, allows FP return times not to be always pusshed to the end of the day but rather they are filled in similar to a "just in time" format.

the live data is why this is all possible.

additionally, if certain attractions are getting backed up too long in the stand by line they can shut downt eh FP+ openings for a bit and let the same day FP+ bookings and changes be diverted to other attractions with shorter lines.

I fully expect that ultimately, the system will be better for Fastpassing and stand by lines.