DVC point balancing 2022 vs 2021

[ford91exploder]

Respectfully, if the cash rooms you saw were there due to breakage, MS could have "pulled them back" for members who wanted to book them for points.

The cash inventory you saw was almost certainly available because of Member trades for selected options in one of the Collections, most likely cruises. Many here do not realize how many members use points to cruise (probably because everytime it's mentioned, someone tells them how it's a bad value, and they should rent points instead).

no question some of it was exactly that, But we had been ‘locked out’ about a dozen times and there was always cash inventory available far too often to be a coincidence. Until i see hard evidence proving otherwise. I think funny business is happening

 

[Matty B13]

There have been some instances of rooms being all gone at the 11 month mark recently, ie. AKV value rooms for December and VGF as well for December. Then magically appearing after a few complaints with no real good explination.

 

[Leight19]

There have been some instances of rooms being all gone at the 11 month mark recently, ie. AKV value rooms for December and VGF as well for December. Then magically appearing after a few complaints with no real good explination.

To add to this, some of the rooms pulled were not possible by traditional booking methods. For example, gf studio would be booked by someone for 11 months through 11 months plus 2 days but somehow plus 3 days was blocked for them to book. This would not be possible unless dvcm pulled rooms beyond the 11 mon window without having the consecutive days needed to book that far out.

 

[pkrieger2287]

Per the POS, Disney is also permitted, at their own discretion and without oversight, to estimate what breakage will be, given historical data (to which members do not have access), and using those projections, convert rooms to cash and sell those rooms outside normal booking windows.

It’s important to note that when this happens, it is not simply Disney using their own points to book a room outside of the home resort window, it’s a conversion of a dues-paid room into a room for CRO to sell to cash-paying non-members.

The total revenue from breakage is not known, only that it has maxed out every year for at least the past 12 years.

I imagine this revenue is why Disney is so eager to build more and more timeshare resorts over cash rooms, and will continue the practice of converting cash rooms into timeshares (a la PVB, CCV, etc.).

The membership is a captured audience all too happy to pay to keep the lights on year-over-year for the next 20-50 years. For a long time this has been a symbiotic relationship. We love our Disney.

But it seems Management for the past decade seems to be willing to test the limits further and further to find our breaking point. And if the latest sales figures are any indication, the most severe restrictions leveled against the membership notwithstanding, they are still leaving a ton of money on the table.

THis is actually what I believe occurred ahead of the 50th booking window. They jumped the 11-Month window and claimed it was due to "historic data".

 

[EYL]

Seems like "breakage" leads to a conflict of interest on Disney's end of things. Does anyone know if other timeshares have breakage as well?

 

[Bing Showei]

I think there are two simpler explanations.

The simplest: the timeshare model compresses the ROI of a resort's development into just a handful of years during sales, rather than over the viable lifetime of the property. Because publicly traded companies are evaluated quarter-by-quarter, this acceleration is a smart move for the balance sheet.

Maybe another (and one I've been convinced of for a long time now): DVC shifts the risk of unexpected drops in travel demand from WDW to individual owners. This is important becase WDW is so highly dependent on air travel to make it work; Central Florida just isn't Southern California, Shanghai, Tokyo, etc.

What you’re describing is the principal function of a timeshare, and I agree those are the most straightforward reasons as to why Disney got into the timeshare business in the first place.

What I’m suggesting is that in all likelihood, we are grossly underestimating the income generated by breakage and that this annual income stream through the life of a timeshare resort likely eclipses any revenue stream beyond ROI of the traditional cash resort model over the life of the property, or for comparison purposes, the first 50 years of a resort life.

Disney designs and sells a system that will invariably book studios first. This cannot be overstated.

In the sales center, projection models are built around the cost comparison between a hotel room and a timeshare studio; on the management side, studio policies were changed to accommodate 5 in a room even when there are only 4 official sleeping surfaces; on the developer front, new properties will boast "tower studios" that will be near impossible to book, point charts that make standard studio rooms cheap, and oversell resorts with small contracts that lean towards studio usage while bungalows and cabins eat up a disproportionate number of points. We see it in Pete Scheidle's DVC availability charts today.

Studios always book up first. In most resorts, this immediately creates breakage; legal breakage by way of the lock-off premium. Again, a system designed so that studios will always go first with a healthy 2x point cost for 1BRs that make the 2BRs (that will immediately become unbookable) look like a steal.

I suspect breakage income beyond the 2.5% of operating budget is a healthy revenue stream for Disney. One that would exist with or without a theme park for the life of the contract we signed. It's not hard to see that as a compelling motivator to build more timeshare.

And while we're on the topic... how can Disney justify breakage profits going to BVTC from Riviera when a subclass of owners there do not even benefit from the existence of the BVTC exchange system? That sounds a lot like DVCMC having its cake and eating it too.... along with your lunch... and then kicking you in the crotch for good measure.

 

[Rm4OneMore]

There have been some instances of rooms being all gone at the 11 month mark recently, ie. AKV value rooms for December and VGF as well for December. Then magically appearing after a few complaints with no real good explination.

Our kid's fall break is the first week in October. At the 11 month mark I tried to book our week long trip and had to wait list the rooms at AKV. The next day I received the room. Very suspicious.

 

[Leight19]

Our kid's fall break is the first week in October. At the 11 month mark I tried to book our week long trip and had to wait list the rooms at AKV. The next day I received the room. Very suspicious.

I may be wrong but think this could be from someone walking room. A lot of times you can pick up days that are blocked at 11 month window when walkers move past dates.

The issue that shows interference is when rooms get pulled from inventory past 11 month window without blocking all dates from 11 month to the date. This would indicate someone is pulling rooms without following the 11 mo booking window creating “holes” in availability past 11 months.

 

[Sammie]

Why would you? If you enjoy booking your vacations onsite for a considerable discount, why should you give up because some of the people in current management do shadowy actions?

I am not convinced at this point anything shadowy is going on. This is like buying a car from the same dealer. As long as they act in good faith we are lifelong customers. However once they did something that was very shady we were done with them.

Matty B13 said:
There have been some instances of rooms being all gone at the 11 month mark recently, ie. AKV value rooms for December and VGF as well for December. Then magically appearing after a few complaints with no real good explination.

Why is that suspicious, people hold and cancel rooms every day every hour. That available you see might be only one room. Both of those room categories and locations are always in demand.

As to getting rooms within that 60 day prior we have always been successful in doing that, if the rooms have not been booked.

 

[AaronEuth]

I am not convinced at this point anything shadowy is going on. This is like buying a car from the same dealer. As long as they act in good faith we are lifelong customers. However once they did something that was very shady we were done with them.

Matty B13 said:
There have been some instances of rooms being all gone at the 11 month mark recently, ie. AKV value rooms for December and VGF as well for December. Then magically appearing after a few complaints with no real good explination.

Why is that suspicious, people hold and cancel rooms every day every hour. That available you see might be only one room. Both of those room categories and locations are always in demand.

As to getting rooms within that 60 day prior we have always been successful in doing that, if the rooms have not been booked.

The specific instances they are referring too are when rooms were available and booked at 11 months, but not at 11 months plus two or three days. Because of how the booking window works, if you have the room at 11 months (as in a confirmed reservation) you should be guaranteed it for an additional 7 days. Because only people who have a confirmed reservation have access to those days....unless a room has been removed from inventory. If memory serves me right it was a VGC grand villa (of which there are only two) and some akv value rooms.

 

[Bing Showei]

This is like buying a car from the same dealer. As long as they act in good faith we are lifelong customers. However once they did something that was very shady we were done with them.

The analogy is flawed unless you’re talking 1911 when Henry Ford was the only dealer in town and you decide to stop buying his cars entirely.

For a “deluxe” near-park experience, Disney is the only show in town. Staying non-Disney, even on site at the Swolphin or Four Seasons, is a compromised choice. There is no other real economically-equivalent alternative to Disney’s timeshare.

My family still enjoys the theme parks and visiting multiple times per year. Disneys timeshare allows us to do it cost-effectively. To sell because we feel current management is acting in bad faith is a bit of cutting off our noses to spite our face. The product still has value to me and my family, regardless of how faithfully I feel current management is serving as a fiduciary.

Back in 2019, did you “trust” Disney did the right thing with the lock-off premium, claiming 1BRs were justifiably raised in cost because it was the highest in demand unit type, second only to studios?

If you didn’t believe this, why are you still an owner? Shouldn’t you have sold then? If you felt they did do the right thing, why do you suppose they reversed course and have never revisited that assertion again?

Your revised “wait and see” from when you originally wrote “no plans to sell” stance is a convenient hedge because it allows you to justify your continued ownership by proclaiming to have trust in the system. You let others do the work of raising issues with management, while you quietly benefit from Disney reversing course on poor policy that devalued your ownership share.

And while you sit on high, disparaging those who lack the moral integrity to disengage from someone they feel is untrustworthy, you hedge your bets, remaining faithful because, of course, you have that trust. Except you’ll book that 2020 room at a lowered rate courtesy of people you disparage who choose not to trust blindly, who choose not to sell, but instead choose to fight for what is the right way ownership should be treated.

All the meanwhile you’ll turn a blind eye to the possibility that maybe Disney isn’t as infallible as you need them to be in order to justify keeping your ownership. That’s not some higher moral integrity, that’s just cheap talk about hypothetical car dealers.

 

[Matty B13]

I am not convinced at this point anything shadowy is going on. This is like buying a car from the same dealer. As long as they act in good faith we are lifelong customers. However once they did something that was very shady we were done with them.

Matty B13 said:
There have been some instances of rooms being all gone at the 11 month mark recently, ie. AKV value rooms for December and VGF as well for December. Then magically appearing after a few complaints with no real good explination.

Why is that suspicious, people hold and cancel rooms every day every hour. That available you see might be only one room. Both of those room categories and locations are always in demand.

As to getting rooms within that 60 day prior we have always been successful in doing that, if the rooms have not been booked.

This was suspicious because no one could have gotten the rooms without something shady going on, and it wasn't till after a lot of calls "inquiring" about why the rooms were not available, that all of a sudden they magically appeared in the RAT....... with no explanation.

 

[JOLT]

This was suspicious because no one could have gotten the rooms without something shady going on, and it wasn't till after a lot of calls "inquiring" about why the rooms were not available, that all of a sudden they magically appeared in the RAT....... with no explanation.

I am not sure about VGF but AKV was for refurbishment of the hotel side rooms. The timeline was changed and the December rooms were released. I know VGF had/has a planned soft refurbishment during that time frame too.

 

[Marionnette]

I am not sure about VGF but AKV was for refurbishment of the hotel side rooms. The timeline was changed and the December rooms were released. I know VGF had/has a planned soft refurbishment during that time frame too.

I doubt that was the case with VGF. Every single room was taken out of inventory at the same time. Like the vanishing rooms around the 50th anniversary, the VGF rooms "magically" appeared one day after numerous members called to complain.

 

[JOLT]

I doubt that was the case with VGF. Every single room was taken out of inventory at the same time. Like the vanishing rooms around the 50th anniversary, the VGF rooms "magically" appeared one day after numerous members called to complain.

I am not against thinking DVC is doing shady things. It seems like a lot of people jump to worst case with only speculation. everyone knows Disney IT is not the greatest and glitches happen. they might not know about things until it is brought to their attention.

 

[Marionnette]

I am not against thinking DVC is doing shady things. It seems like a lot of people jump to worst case with only speculation. everyone knows Disney IT is not the greatest and glitches happen. they might not know about things until it is brought to their attention.

I didn't mean to imply that there were nefarious motives behind the missing nights. But it definitely was not due to the refurbishment that is planned for VGF.

 

[Matty B13]

I doubt that was the case with VGF. Every single room was taken out of inventory at the same time. Like the vanishing rooms around the 50th anniversary, the VGF rooms "magically" appeared one day after numerous members called to complain.

There was definitely something weird/wrong going on with the VGF bookings for this coming December, it was magically fixed after a lot of phone calls to MS.

 

[CarolMN]

I am not against thinking DVC is doing shady things. It seems like a lot of people jump to worst case with only speculation. everyone knows Disney IT is not the greatest and glitches happen. they might not know about things until it is brought to their attention.

I tend to agree. There are so many booking & account combinations and restrictions that I doubt anyone knows the impact of a "simple" change. Couple that with the number of "fingers in the pie" (some who have no idea how DVC works) and it's not at all surprising that all these "glitches" are occurring.

I am not defending it, especially because I don't think DVC executives know or care how much most of us are disgusted by the recurring issues.

That said, I personally have not experienced website/online booking problems. But I have one simple membership, consisting of a master + add-on contract for the same resort. Both were purchased directly in late 90's. To the best of my recollection, many, not all, of the issues seem to occur for those with multiple memberships and or combinations of direct & resale contracts purchased under different restrictions. Again, not defending this - it's a problem DVD & DVCMC created themselves. It does explain the difficulty of maintaining a decent booking engine given some very poor decisions made by higher management.

This is all JMHO. YMMV.

 

[Red Dog Run]

Off topic I know. I have no problem with September. And I am sure there are others like me who shop for lower point seasons. Granted, I’m from South Louisiana and the weather in Orlando is about the same as home so I’m used to it.
Back on topic, I am looking forward to seeing the revised charts as I have a September 2022 trip already planned.

Where in South Louisiana? I'm from Chauvin.

 

[Red Dog Run]

What you’re describing is the principal function of a timeshare, and I agree those are the most straightforward reasons as to why Disney got into the timeshare business in the first place.

What I’m suggesting is that in all likelihood, we are grossly underestimating the income generated by breakage and that this annual income stream through the life of a timeshare resort likely eclipses any revenue stream beyond ROI of the traditional cash resort model over the life of the property, or for comparison purposes, the first 50 years of a resort life.

Disney designs and sells a system that will invariably book studios first. This cannot be overstated.

In the sales center, projection models are built around the cost comparison between a hotel room and a timeshare studio; on the management side, studio policies were changed to accommodate 5 in a room even when there are only 4 official sleeping surfaces; on the developer front, new properties will boast "tower studios" that will be near impossible to book, point charts that make standard studio rooms cheap, and oversell resorts with small contracts that lean towards studio usage while bungalows and cabins eat up a disproportionate number of points. We see it in Pete Scheidle's DVC availability charts today.

Studios always book up first. In most resorts, this immediately creates breakage; legal breakage by way of the lock-off premium. Again, a system designed so that studios will always go first with a healthy 2x point cost for 1BRs that make the 2BRs (that will immediately become unbookable) look like a steal.

I suspect breakage income beyond the 2.5% of operating budget is a healthy revenue stream for Disney. One that would exist with or without a theme park for the life of the contract we signed. It's not hard to see that as a compelling motivator to build more timeshare.

And while we're on the topic... how can Disney justify breakage profits going to BVTC from Riviera when a subclass of owners there do not even benefit from the existence of the BVTC exchange system? That sounds a lot like DVCMC having its cake and eating it too.... along with your lunch... and then kicking you in the crotch for good measure.

I'm too new to grasp all of this... for now, I'll absorb it through osmosis. But I am paying attention. Some will soak up. My question focuses on transparency. If true tweaking toward the Disney side occurs, what repercussions would DVC fear? I'm talking about jobs, etc. Does membership have a partnership with DVC, or is it one-sided. Without membership, there is no need for DVC management, so I would think the upper level would have some checks and balances.