There really are so many factors with ride wait times and no two nights are exactly the same. A few tips I use when selecting rides after the fireworks are:
* Avoid a that ride had downtime during the day the waits will be longer once it has re-opened since there will be more
Genie+ redemptions used in shorter periods of time. So if it was pouring with thunder and lightening all the outdoor rides were most likely closed so there is probably a backup.
* The waits in the evening will usually tend to get shorter the later it get as people might be doing one last ride after fireworks and then leaving so doing some mid-tier rides then going to a headliner might be a strategy that works better for you. If you are hopping in a headliner ride 15 mins before park closes and the line doe end up being an hour at least you didn't miss any park time. YMMV of course based on your party and if they'd actually want to be at the park that late.
It isn't perfect though and sometimes you get caught in a line your didn't expect. Particularly in those indoor lines you can't see!