Do you really want to go back to WDW so soon?

[lilypgirl]

So they are selfish for depriving you of Disney and you are not for possibly causing their death? No, they wouldn't stop me. But I would so much rather enjoy their company than a silly trip to Disney I could easily do without. But make your own choice.

I plan on it!

 

[Meglen]

Per Bob Iger, taking guests temperature is a possibility

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bob-iger-on-disney-after-coronoavirus-51586252700

This literally will only help some.. Many folks even someone from my hsbands work tested positive without any symptoms. Sure this is a great way to keep sick people out but this will not solve the issue at hand right now.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

This virus is transmittable through the eyes. I guess your mask goes over your whole head? Why do you think health care workers are in dire need of face shields?

So spittle or other bodily fluid doesn't go into their eyes when patients dont have a mask?

 

[TraderSamWDW]

It doesn’t matter. The issue is the death rate. And the death rate is LOW, far lower than the flu, far lower than heat waves. A very small number of people have died from the virus in the US. Most hospitals in the us are completely empty right now.

According to the CDC in the 2017-2018 season there was an estimated 44,802,629 cases of Influenza and approximately 61,099 deaths - which is a death rate of .1363 percent
at the time of this post there is (according to John Hopkins) 379,965 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 11,851 deaths for a death rate of 3.11 percent

If 44 million people get the COVID-19 and the death rate holds, that would be about 1,397,000 deaths

How exactly is the death rate lower than the flu?

 

[Maistre Gracey]

According to the CDC in the 2017-2018 season there was an estimated 44,802,629 cases of Influenza and approximately 61,099 deaths - which is a death rate of .1363 percent
at the time of this post there is (according to John Hopkins) 379,965 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 11,851 deaths for a death rate of 3.11 percent

If 44 million people get the COVID-19 and the death rate holds, that would be about 1,397,000 deaths

How exactly is the death rate lower than the flu?

The numbers are not correct. For every confirmed (tested) case of the virus, there are numerous cases undetected or reported.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

According to the CDC in the 2017-2018 season there was an estimated 44,802,629 cases of Influenza and approximately 61,099 deaths - which is a death rate of .1363 percent
at the time of this post there is (according to John Hopkins) 379,965 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 11,851 deaths for a death rate of 3.11 percent

If 44 million people get the COVID-19 and the death rate holds, that would be about 1,397,000 deaths

How exactly is the death rate lower than the flu?

You're assuming that the percentage of deaths remains constant as the number of confirmed cases rises. Many believe that there are already a lot more cases that were non-lethal (and in some cases, inconsequential). As the number of confirmed cases rise, that doesn't automatically mean that 3% of them will die. You have to compare the number of people with the disease (we don't yet know what that number actually is) and recalculate the %. The current statistics may be artificially high because we're only dividing by the number of confirmed cases. As the denominator grows, the death rate expressed as a percentage may decrease significantly.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

The numbers are not correct. For every confirmed (tested) case of the virus, there are numerous cases undetected or reported.

While that is true, to get the numbers about equal to influenza there would have to be about 3,799,650 cases of COVID-19 and 11,851 deaths - which means for every confirmed case there would have to be 9 - yes 9 - unconfirmed cases.

I can accept that the actual death rate is lower, but I will not buy into the notion that there are 9 unconfirmed cases for every 1 confirmed.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

While that is true, to get the numbers about equal to influenza there would have to be about 3,799,650 cases of COVID-19 and 11,851 deaths - which means for every confirmed case there would have to be 9 - yes 9 - unconfirmed cases.

I can accept that the actual death rate is lower, but I will not buy into the notion that there are 9 unconfirmed cases for every 1 confirmed.

Honestly I do not know. They do say many folks are a-symptomatic, so anything is possible I suppose.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

You're assuming that the percentage of deaths remains constant as the number of confirmed cases rises. Many believe that there are already a lot more cases that were non-lethal (and in some cases, inconsequential). As the number of confirmed cases rise, that doesn't automatically mean that 3% of them will die. You have to compare the number of people with the disease (we don't yet know what that number actually is) and recalculate the %. The current statistics may be artificially high because we're only dividing by the number of confirmed cases. As the denominator grows, the death rate expressed as a percentage may decrease significantly.

yes, for every 1 confirmed case there has to be 9 unconfirmed to get the ratios to be the same

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

And coupled with the sparsity of testing except for those with severe symptoms, as well as the rate at which the experts are saying this spreads (isn't that the biggest fear?), it's not out of the realm of possibility for there to actually be 10x more people who have it than are currently known.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

Honestly I do not know. They do say many folks are a-symptomatic, so anything is possible I suppose.

I do not know either. The death rate will change. All I know is that stating the death rate is lower than the flu as though it were a fact, and with 0 evidence to back it up is why the internet is a horrible place for the truth.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

And coupled with the sparsity of testing except for those with severe symptoms, as well as the rate at which the experts are saying this spreads (isn't that the biggest fear?), it's not out of the realm of possibility for there to actually be 10x more people who have it than are currently known.

Once it is know, then we can state that it is less deadly than the flu. Right now, there is not one bit of data to support that claim. That does not mean there will not be in the future, but if I knew the future, I would not be here.

But, saying, at this point in time that it is less deadly than the flu is not supportable by any current evidence. Could change, but at this point in time, it is a bogus internet factoid.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

Once it is know, then we can state that it is less deadly than the flu. Right now, there is not one bit of data to support that claim. That does not mean there will not be in the future, but if I knew the future, I would not be here.

But, saying, at this point in time that it is less deadly than the flu is not supportable by any current evidence. Could change, but at this point in time, it is a bogus internet factoid.

I wasn't comparing to the flu. It may be more or less deadly than flu. We don't know yet because they current death rate is based on extremely limited data. I do think the % death rate statistic will decline significantly once we have better/more accurate testing data, but that's just my personal speculation.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

I wasn't comparing to the flu. It may be more or less deadly than flu. We don't know yet because they current death rate is based on extremely limited data.

Understood, and agreed, my original rant was based on a statement about the flu. You my friend are clearly capable of long division and basic arithmetic

The death rate will certainly decline with more testing, I do not think that that is speculation at all - how much - well that can only be speculated.

See post 84 - that is what started this

 

[Minniesgal]

I want to go August 2021, I'm already wondering if that is realistic. Not because I don't think we will have some form of normality by then but because that has me start planning August 2020 and I can't see me being ready to do that.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

Most reports are suggesting 50% are asymptomatic.

 

[kboo]

Oh goodness... As Tiana says... "Please, please, PLEASE" yes! Disney masks. can you imagine how much safer it will be there if people find it cool to wear fancy-schmancy Disney masks?!❤❤

Per Bob Iger, taking guests temperature is a possibility

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bob-iger-on-disney-after-coronoavirus-51586252700

That would be helpful, as well as limiting ## in the parks, requiring masks, enforcing social distancing, etc. I have a feeling mask-wearing will become customary for many of us in the long term - in large crowds, on public transportation, in large cities. I live in NYC and even though the areas where I am are deserted, the few people out walking their dogs or getting groceries are virtually all wearing masks. It is actually unusual to see someone out without some form of face covering.

How do we fight this:
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1741938/

Yes. Wow. Over 700 deaths today, and we were hopeful over the weekend that we were flattening the curve. It is horrifying.

It doesn’t matter. The issue is the death rate. And the death rate is LOW, far lower than the flu, far lower than heat waves. A very small number of people have died from the virus in the US. Most hospitals in the us are completely empty right now.

NYC has 10s of thousands of hospital beds, they've converted ORs to multi-person ICUs, and yet the hospitals are overflowing. Please don't be like us. It was clearly in the community here in February, if not earlier, and our local leaders were largely reactionary and reacting weeks too late. Not to say they haven't been doing a good/decent job, but there had also been significant resistance for weeks over taking stricter measures. And now, 3 weeks later ... Healthy and young people here are dying; and it is disproportionately affecting the poor, undocumented and underprivileged.

It is hard to convey what it's like here - everything is surreal.

OP (@pinnocchiosdad ) - I hope you are holding up OK, DH is in healthcare as well - not caring for covid patients yet, as it's been 25 years since he's intubated someone, but he fully expects that will happen in the next 1-2 weeks.

For people disputing the ## - there are inaccuracies and undercounting in all categories. Many deaths at home, waiting for medical assistance, in the hallways of hospitals, are not attributed to Covid if they haven't been tested. There is still a decent % of false negatives, and whether you even have access to get tested depends sadly on your socioeconomic status. My DH was exposed to someone asymptomatic (no fever, nothing) who 2 days later was admitted to the hospital with severe symptoms and who tested positive. Even with all that, my DH was unable to get tested (was told he'd have to have a fever over 100.4 first). Luckily we live in a large enough apartment that he self-quarantined in a separate bedroom with an attached bathroom. The reality when you're living in it is very different from talking about the numbers you read online. NYC has 8 million people. A 1% death rate is 80,000 people. In NYC alone.

As for talking about returning to WDW: We have trips booked at the end of June and end of August. I haven't canceled them yet, because I am holding on to the hope that we will have flattened this curve, but of course that depends on everyone doing their part. If I have to cancel, it will be our own decision whether we think it's safe *enough* for us, and even if we do go, we are for sure going to be wearing masks. I treat as a little bit of hope (and maybe fantasy), but it's nice to think that we will have something pleasant to look forward to when the country starts to open up a little.

 

[kboo]

Additional question for people considering returning in 2020 if the parks are open - how would you feel knowing that there could be people like us, coming from the epicenter, who may be asymptomatic carriers?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Can we stop talking about COVID-19 in terms of death rate based on infection? Overall number of deaths as a measure of total population is already well above that of influenza. Full stop.

 

[KSkywalker17]

I think the game changer will be the test that will be able determine if you had the virus already. It looks like that‘s close but who knows when it will be distributed in mass. If it turns out my family has already been exposed and there’s virtually no danger of contracting it again, decisions become much easier.