DLT price speculation thread

[DonMacGregor]

This has been beaten to death in the AP threads, but there is a lawsuit pending about this issue in CA. I would not bet on the current AP park reservation availability being permanent. There are a whole lot of ways Disney can keep out the unfavorable mix going forward.

And yet they rolled out updated Magic Keys (with revised reservation language and blockout dates for all Keys) and replaced the Dream Key with the Inspire Key last month and began allowing renewals last month, 9 months after the lawsuit was filed.

They could have quite easily continued the suspense of MK sales/renewals indefinitely, pending outcome of the litigation, but they didn't. They also could have revised the current reservation system to hard limit the number of reservations/entries allowed per pass, increased the blockout dates further, or simply announced they were ending the program entirely. But they didn't.

At the end of the day, Disney had literally half a year where they were selling absolutely zero Magic Keys and had the perfect circumstances to just end the whole thing, wash their hands of annual passes entirely in any shape, form or name, and allow every current pass to sunset. Easy-peasy lemon squeazy.

But they didn't.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

And yet they rolled out updated Magic Keys (with revised reservation language and blockout dates for all Keys) and replaced the Dream Key with the Inspire Key last month and began allowing renewals last month, 9 months after the lawsuit was filed.

They could have quite easily continued the suspense of MK sales/renewals indefinitely, pending outcome of the litigation, but they didn't. They also could have revised the current reservation system to hard limit the number of reservations/entries allowed per pass, increased the blockout dates further, or simply announced they were ending the program entirely. But they didn't.

At the end of the day, Disney had literally half a year where they were selling absolutely zero Magic Keys and had the perfect circumstances to just end the whole thing, wash their hands of annual passes entirely in any shape, form or name, and allow every current pass to sunset. Easy-peasy lemon squeazy.

But they didn't.

I have been posting alongside Rose Gold for a while now. Normally I stick to WDW threads. However, I don't recall either of us has proffered a theory that Disney will end the Magic Key or Annual Pass program on either coast. What we are saying -- when it was "beat to death" -- is the order of priorities for availability of park reservations may become reversed at the end of the lawsuit compared to what it is now. What is happening now is precisely consistent with what we are saying.

Disney has limited the number of MK/APs they have distributed. They will keep that number in their passholder programs. That's why they do allow renewals. The Dream Key was replaced by the Inspire Key, but only as a renewal option; not as a new sale at this time. Whether or not they revise some terms and conditions or blockout dates is also consistent with keeping the passholder program and limiting the number sold. That is what they are doing to get their "favorable mix." It is quite a leap from there to say they are ending the program entirely to achieve their idea of a "favorable mix."
People are commenting that they haven't had any trouble getting last minute park reservations. If the priority of Club 33, Oak, then Annual Passholders, then Ticketed guests and Resort guests (who, if they are AP can default to draw from the higher priority AP bucket) is reversed, then passholders may again have trouble getting reservations. Passholders did have trouble getting reservations last October, November, December until shortly after the lawsuit was filed. Then the passholder alone bucket was given a higher priority. So, that is the temporary situation; not the continuation of the passholder program.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I have been posting alongside Rose Gold for a while now. Normally I stick to WDW threads. However, I don't recall either of us has proffered a theory that Disney will end the Magic Key or Annual Pass program on either coast. What we are saying -- when it was "beat to death" -- is the order of priorities for availability of park reservations may become reversed at the end of the lawsuit compared to what it is now. What is happening now is precisely consistent with what we are saying.

Disney has limited the number of MK/APs they have distributed. They will keep that number in their passholder programs. That's why they do allow renewals. The Dream Key was replaced by the Inspire Key, but only as a renewal option; not as a new sale at this time. Whether or not they revise some terms and conditions or blockout dates is also consistent with keeping the passholder program and limiting the number sold. That is what they are doing to get their "favorable mix." It is quite a leap from there to say they are ending the program entirely to achieve their idea of a "favorable mix."
People are commenting that they haven't had any trouble getting last minute park reservations. If the priority of Club 33, Oak, then Annual Passholders, then Ticketed guests and Resort guests (who, if they are AP can default to draw from the higher priority AP bucket) is reversed, then passholders may again have trouble getting reservations. Passholders did have trouble getting reservations last October, November, December until shortly after the lawsuit was filed. Then the passholder alone bucket was given a higher priority. So, that is the temporary situation; not the continuation of the passholder program.

The specific quote was:

I would not bet on the current AP park reservation availability being permanent. There are a whole lot of ways Disney can keep out the unfavorable mix going forward.

We're not talking about what they HAVE done, but this suggestion that they are likely to do more (hence assuming otherwise is a bad bet). My point was that Disney had every opportunity under the sun, over the last 9 months, to alter the "current AP park reservation availability" whether it is adjusting or eliminating the Magic Key program (which many others suggested they would), and they took the extremely moderate course of slightly modifying existing Keys, and at least temporarily pausing new sales. That quote also references the lawsuit as if Disney is somehow simply going to sit around waiting until the suit is resolved before making their final moves. That is absolutely NOT how Disney operates. They leave nothing to chance legally. They've already determined what their reaction to the lawsuit will be, regardless of outcome, and have implemented those changes now rather than waiting until later.

While there may be a "Disney can keep out the unfavorable mix going forward" option in a desk drawer somewhere, they clearly, when presented with the golden opportunity, chose not to go any further than they have. The suggestion was that there is likely to be ADDITIONAL changes to the system, which makes little to no logistical sense, given they could have (and likely would have) affected every change they wanted to when it was most easy and convenient to do so.

 

[Sunnyore]

This has been beaten to death in the AP threads, but there is a lawsuit pending about this issue in CA. I would not bet on the current AP park reservation availability being permanent. There are a whole lot of ways Disney can keep out the unfavorable mix going forward.

I blame that lame lawsuit for why I am now blocked for 2 weeks at xmas/NY. I hate the reservation system as much as the next person, especially when I change my mind and don’t want to go, but still have to go to avoid the penalty of a no show. But overall it was working fine for me and my friends that are all local. I am dreading any upcoming changes because I’m sure it’ll end up requiring even more planning ahead.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

The specific quote was:



We're not talking about what they HAVE done, but this suggestion that they are likely to do more (hence assuming otherwise is a bad bet). My point was that Disney had every opportunity under the sun, over the last 9 months, to alter the "current AP park reservation availability" whether it is adjusting or eliminating the Magic Key program (which many others suggested they would), and they took the extremely moderate course of slightly modifying existing Keys, and at least temporarily pausing new sales. That quote also references the lawsuit as if Disney is somehow simply going to sit around waiting until the suit is resolved before making their final moves. That is absolutely NOT how Disney operates. They leave nothing to chance legally. They've already determined what their reaction to the lawsuit will be, regardless of outcome, and have implemented those changes now rather than waiting until later.

While there may be a "Disney can keep out the unfavorable mix going forward" option in a desk drawer somewhere, they clearly, when presented with the golden opportunity, chose not to go any further than they have. The suggestion was that there is likely to be ADDITIONAL changes to the system, which makes little to no logistical sense, given they could have (and likely would have) affected every change they wanted to when it was most easy and convenient to do so.

I can I think of three “going forward” ways to reduce passholder access and change “the mix” while still keeping a passholder program. 1. Severely restrict the park reservations available to passholders (once the impact of the lawsuit ends), 2. Huge price increases for Magic Keys and APs — like $3,000 to $5,000 per pass. 3. Further severely restricting the number of annual passes distributed. Disney has already used all three methods in very moderate increments. Edited to add: Take away free parking or parking discounts.

 

[RoseGold]

Disney's behavior blocking out all the DL weekends almost immediately that caused the lawsuit in the first place was pretty telling. It was disgusting. After that, Disney's language about APs in general and their "unfavorable mix" is not subtle at all. There are many ways Disney can block the kind of easy AP access the poster I was responding to assumed. They aren't using those levers now, but they could. A factor in play is the lawsuit. Eventually, it will be done, which could change this discussion.

To me, the writing on the wall about APs has been there for quite some time now, especially for DL.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I can I think of three “going forward” ways to reduce passholder access and change “the mix” while still keeping a passholder program. 1. Severely restrict the park reservations available to passholders (once the impact of the lawsuit ends), 2. Huge price increases for Magic Keys and APs — like $3,000 to $5,000 per pass. 3. Further severely restricting the number of annual passes distributed. Disney has already used all three methods in very moderate increments. Edited to add: Take away free parking or parking discounts.

We can probably think of dozens of ways. You keep missing my point.

The point is for every one we can think of, Disney can probably think of 10. The issue is, they have probably already thought of them, but as I have said several times now, even when they had the optimal opportunity, they only opted to take the steps they did. They have made small but important changes to the reservation language, increased MK pricing, and allowed existing passholders to renew. That suggests they will, at some point, also start selling new Keys again, quite possibly with limited numbers (never adding new Keys and simply allowing existing Keys to continue to renew in slowly decreasing numbers is a ridiculously unnecessary process and just ending the whole program would be infinitely easier). Everything you list could have easily been done before the rollout of the renewals, but wasn't.

I don't buy that Disney has other significant moves that they are going to just sit on until some other shoe drops., or ease in additional restrictions slowly as to not hurt anyone's feelings. In the realm of litigation and pure business, If Disney wants to stop something, they stop it. If they want to step on your neck, they just do it. That's just how Disney operates. Could they do far "worse"? Of course they could, but if they wanted to they would do it and be done with it.

 

[DonMacGregor]

To me, the writing on the wall about APs has been there for quite some time now, especially for DL.

Simple question: why didn't they?

They had ample opportunity, and if we're to believe your theory, they absolutely hate the passes anyway. So, again, why didn't they just end them after the lawsuit was filed and in the 6 or 7 months before the first existing Magic Keys were coming up for renewal just last month? I mean, if they hate AP/MK's so badly, why wait for the outcome of the lawsuit? The suit gives them the perfect, tied up in a ribbon, opportunity to can the whole thing. Instead, they just let several hundred thousand of them renew.

 

[RoseGold]

The point is for every one we can think of, Disney can probably think of 10. The issue is, they have probably already thought of them, but as I have said several times now, even when they had the optimal opportunity, they only opted to take the steps they did.

Right. They got sued after pulling gross shenanigans. I don't believe they are above shenanigans, but they in the middle of a lawsuit about this exact topic. So maybe not the time to be pushing the fine print.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Right. They got sued after pulling gross shenanigans. I don't believe they are above shenanigans, but they in the middle of a lawsuit about this exact topic. So maybe not the time to be pushing the fine print.

Except the fine print is exactly what they changed in quite clear fashion, so they were overtly responding to the very core of the litigation, not shying away from it.

Disney is the heartless profit-driven mega-corp, led by its evil overlord Bob Chapek: a man who would sell his mother for 30 pieces of silver. Bob and Disney hate the "undesirable" annual passholder and feel the passholder is not a viable source of revenue. Bob and Disney allegedly want to be rid of passholders of any and all kinds yet, when given the opportunity to end it all cleanly and permanently, they do what? Allow hundreds of thousands to renew at marginal price increases, additional clearly stated blockout dates, and revised language that addresses the core issue of the California lawsuit? That's it?

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

You keep missing my point.

… That suggests they will, at some point, also start selling new Keys again, quite possibly with limited numbers (never adding new Keys and simply allowing existing Keys to continue to renew in slowly decreasing numbers is a ridiculously unnecessary process and just ending the whole program would be infinitely easier).

I am sorry. I do not mean to miss your points.

Forget the other poster’s statement for a moment about not having trouble getting whatever reservations he wanted.

As to your point that the fact that they did certain things indicates Disney wants a continuation of the pass program, I agree with you.

I also think that sales of new annual passes will eventually open up again. But, my difference in point of view is I do not believe the pause in sales is just a temporary pause due to crowding, lack of employees or the other reasons the bloggers guessed. I do not believe that re-opening of sales will then be wide open, unlimited and continuous like it was up through 2019. Disney capped the number of passes they deliver. So, as people do not renew, they will have some to sell eventually. The times when they sell new passes will come and go to keep the number of passes at or under the new cap. The window of new sales may be short — until they are sold out again. I also think that litigation may still be having some impact on when the window opens. Trial is expected in the summer of 2023.

If you are one of the many people waiting, I sincerely hope you are able to get the new passes you need when the sales window opens. Do not hesitate for any reason when that happens.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I am sorry. I do not mean to miss your points.

Forget the other poster’s statement for a moment about not having trouble getting whatever reservations he wanted.

As to your point that the fact that they did certain things indicates Disney wants a continuation of the pass program, I agree with you.

I also think that sales of new annual passes will eventually open up again. But, my difference in point of view is I do not believe the pause in sales is just a temporary pause due to crowding, lack of employees or the other reasons the bloggers guessed. I do not believe that re-opening of sales will then be wide open, unlimited and continuous like it was up through 2019. Disney capped the number of passes they deliver. So, as people do not renew, they will have some to sell eventually. The times when they sell new passes will come and go to keep the number of passes at or under the new cap. The window of new sales may be short — until they are sold out again. I also think that litigation may still be having some impact on when the window opens. Trial is expected in the summer of 2023.

If you are one of the many people waiting, I sincerely hope you are able to get the new passes you need when the sales window opens. Do not hesitate for any reason when that happens.

I'm a current Magic Key holder and I renewed from the Dream to the Inspire.

I have zero doubt that they will curtail the number of passes sold, that WILL happen, but I don't think any additional changes in terms or blockout dates or pricing will occur. At least no price increases out of line with their traditionally progressive journey northward. If they plan on doing that prior to starting new sales again, they'll need to wait until existing passes are up for renewal again, or they'll have passes issued under two different terms of sale and use. That's not going to happen. If the plan was to significantly increase prices as a tool to limit sales before beginning new sales again, they could have easily done it during the past 6 or 7 months they had prior to allowing existing passes to renew, enjoyed that increased revenue now on the renewals, and avoided the need to do it later when they do start selling new passes again.

 

[Sunnyore]

It boggles me that if Disney hated AP/MKs why are they allowing monthly payments. You would wipe out a significant amount of people that way. Makes me think they still need the AP ppl no matter how unfavorable we are. I am also writing this while waiting for my check time for Plaza Inn Halloween pkg. I definitely spend money here.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

I'm a current Magic Key holder and I renewed from the Dream to the Inspire.

I have zero doubt that they will curtail the number of passes sold, that WILL happen, but I don't think any additional changes in terms or blockout dates or pricing will occur. At least no price increases out of line with their traditionally progressive journey northward. If they plan on doing that prior to starting new sales again, they'll need to wait until existing passes are up for renewal again, or they'll have passes issued under two different terms of sale and use. That's not going to happen. If the plan was to significantly increase prices as a tool to limit sales before beginning new sales again, they could have easily done it during the past 6 or 7 months they had prior to allowing existing passes to renew, enjoyed that increased revenue now on the renewals, and avoided the need to do it later when they do start selling new passes again.

Thank you for the quick reply. Yes and yes.
Glad you have passes. I am sitting on passes and want an upgrade.
You said you thought Disney will curtail the number of passes. According to Chapek and McCarthy’s statements, that has already happened. The limits are already in effect. They continue to sell Pixie passes at Disney World, but in the grand scheme of things the number of those sales are probably small potatoes with the heavy blackouts and only three park reservations.

 

[Sandisw]

Thank you for the quick reply. Yes and yes.
Glad you have passes. I am sitting on passes and want an upgrade.
You said you thought Disney will curtail the number of passes. According to Chapek and McCarthy’s statements, that has already happened. The limits are already in effect. They continue to sell Pixie passes at Disney World, but in the grand scheme of things the number of those sales are probably small potatoes with the heavy blackouts and only three park reservations.

They have also not increased the price of that, or the renewals, since announcing pricing in Aug 2021.

So, while I agree that they will continue the limit passes in existence, with on and off sales, they didn’t take advantage of raising the prices even in the typical fashion that they have always done.

I also think the move with DL passes renewals with updated and clear language that is directly at the heart of the lawsuit, was a move that they will have them, but pass-holders will see different aspects to them moving forward.

 

[TeamRiley]

Personally, I am all for getting rid of all types of annual and local passes at all the parks. But that is just me.

 

[taaren]

Wonder if we will still be in the recession the Fed is trying to put us in by the launch of DLT?

So I'm going to ignore the weird Fed comment and respond with, doesn't matter, I bought the VGC in 2008 at the beginning of the last recession and it still sold out, slower than DVD had originally hoped/anticipated, but sell out it did. DVD knows they have a product people will buy, even in a recession, it just might take longer/more discounts than they originally thought.

As others have pointed out, your distances are wrong. The walk from DLH is 0.5 miles to the Esplanade. During the pandemic they made people walk from Mickey & Friends Parking to the park and you’ll walk past DLH if you take the Downtown Disney route. I hate walking which is why I prefer to stay at BLT when at WDW and I don’t ever feel that DLH is that far at all. And if the monorail is reliable and hotel guests are allowed to use PP entrance to DCA, then the tower location is looking to be pretty amazing.

So I agree that the DLH isn't that far at all, but the DL monorail I doubt will ever be reliable as a transportation method again sadly. I travelled to DL 7 (and a half) times in the last year for three day trips. I think I saw the monorail working once. It can't operate above a certain temperature, and several of my trips were in winter (SoCal winter, but still ...). Ten to fifteen years ago the monorail used to run more, but temperatures keep rising and sadly that means they just can't operate the monorail that often.

But I also don’t think there’s really a case to be made for buying direct at all. At least for me-just like VGC I’ll only use these points at DL, so if I can get resale points for $130 in a year, I’ll do that.

Hunh. Yours is the first post I've seen suggesting that resale will be cheaper in a year. That is giving me pause. I bought VGC for $96/pt in 2008 then added on in 2010 for $82/pt, and would not have expected that discount (but also didn't know resale existed in 2008, and if I did I would have bought anyways since $96/pt seemed ... reasonable at the time). Originally I thought I might wait for a resale contract at the DL Villas, but the resale values of all the resorts have held so high since the time I considered (and sadly passed on) buying BCV at $85/pt back in the early 10's, I had kind of given up on finding a resale contract on a walkable park below $150.

I'm likely going to buy 75 points at the VDLH at some point. I love my VGC points, use all of them, would buy another 75 there if I could afford it, but we also tend to group-fund cabanas at the DLH pool lately because we love the pool more than GCH's and its the best way we can afford to wait for a 4p check in time, so the VDLH appeals from that as well. We also love eating at Tangaroa, sharing drinks outdoors in that environment has been the highlight of many of our trips. As not-quite-locals I'm sure I and my non-DVC midcareer friends going to be part of the target audience for VDLH, many times when I board on a Southwest plane on a Thursday or Friday to LGB or SNA from OAK or SMF and everyone boarding has some variation of Mickey luggage or clothing, the flight attendants make jokes about this plane's destination being Disneyland. So the slightly-too-long-to-drive California market has got to be ripe for the picking of VDLH sales teams. Too many Bay Area/greater Sac people want short trips to the Mouse in conjunction with the conferences and special events for them to not be targeted, so what price will they bear is the main question in my mind. And for that reason I agree with all those who said I don't think that 150 pt minimum will happen with the VLDH, but that's about as much speculation as I'm willing to put out there.

I appreciate all the speculation on this thread, everyone has brought really interesting insights. Wish I'd found this thread sooner, you've given me a lot of food for thought.

 

[limace]

I’ve just paid a little attention to RIV resale prices and it appeared folks pretty quickly were able to pick up some $130ish contracts-and not worry about ROFR. The folks selling have to be in a real bind as they are taking a loss.

 

[The_MT]

I’m a Magic Key holder and just renewed my family’s Believe passes. I now own 100 resale VGC points and hope to buy 50-100 VDH points depending on the price. We live 30 minutes away and we like doing 2-night staycations a couple times a year which feel a lot different than our typical visits when we stay for just a few hours.

As far as annual pass sales go, Disney is a money-making machine with an insane amount of data and AI at their fingertips. Their new pass system gives them full control to maximize their profits by allowing a certain number of people to buy passes and then controlling the number of those passholders allowed in each day. I’m sure they look for the tipping point where they get the most money overall across one-time ticket customers and annual pass customers and they’ll continually adjust as data changes. I totally get that Disney makes way more from families buying one-time tickets, but they still get money from families like mine by allowing us to buy annual passes. If I couldn’t buy annual passes, my family would probably only go to the parks once a year or maybe less frequently than that.

With the reservation system we are basically paying to be “seat fillers” and I’m willing to accept that for as long as it serves my family. So far I have been able to get every unblocked day that I want so far. Even if it shows sold out for popular days, I’ve never had a problem getting that day when they add more availability or when people drop their reservations the night before. And we don’t stress about which rides we get on since we know we’ll be back a few weeks later. We make reservations far ahead for our staycation days and then just grab last minute reservations for other days. This works out for me since I’m local and my plans are flexible, not so well for those who need to travel to go to Disneyland. So the demographics of Magic Key holders is probably more localized than those in the previous program that didn’t require reservations. I don’t see any reason why Disney would eliminate annual passes now that they can control the numbers with the reservation system.

 

[LAX]

I voted for $275, but with "actual" price lowering to around $250 with incentives. Unless DVD destroys the resort's appeal with a ridiculous point chart, it should sell much better than other resorts.

LAX