DLT price speculation thread

[RoseGold]

DLT is coming along and some paperwork has been filed. So, let's follow Pete's excellent speculation and let's go!

For background, it is September 2022. After averaging over $300 a point earlier in 2022, VGC has dropped below $300 and the formerly rare contracts are sitting on the market. VGC has sold very little direct at all for many years, possibly even closing the waitlist. The list price for direct VGC is $310. VGC resale in 2021 was in the $280s.

For historical context, before VGF2 started sales, DVC suspended VGF1 direct sales. The GF direct price at that time was $255. All VGF2 contracts had no 2022 points, even though the resort was scheduled to open in Summer 2022, and DVC had to have some VGF1 contracts, through foreclosure. There were no reports of any VGF1 contracts being sold with 2022 points during direct sales. Shortly before VGF2 went on sale, the prices for all resorts, including sold out were increased, Riviera from $201 to $207. VGF2 started sales in March 2022 at the Riviera price of $207 with excellent incentives that took it as low as the $180s or 170s. Opening VGF2 price with incentives was lower than GF's resale prices just months before, which had been in the $190s, even almost breaking $200 at resale for months.

DVC has millions of unsold Aulani and Riviera points. VGF2 is completely declared, but is not sold out with about six months of sales.

DLT is the only hotel construction Disney has gotten approved in Anaheim in decades. Polynesian Tower at WDW has started construction and is scheduled for "late 2024" which likely means no new DVC for 2023.

 

[Spinster Travel]

I can't wrap my mind around what will happen . With the prospect of 4 resorts on sale at one time, normally I'd think it would HAVE to fall in line with the others (and dare I say, require Aulani to go on a fire sale to get that thing moving), but with the demand at DL being so high, I really can't figure this one out. I can't wait to see how it plays out though

 

[ehh]

I would select 213-223 if available, so I guess 220 is probably closest. Since early 2017, DVC has increased base prices 6 straight years in late Jan/early Feb. I don't see any reason why they wouldn't continue this. Considering inflation and the persistent flexibility they have to reduce prices by offering discounts, I expect them to be a bit more aggressive this upcoming price change.

Specific changes last 6 Jan/Feb:
171 > 176 (+5)
176 > 182 (+6)
182 > 188 (+6)
188 > 195 (+7)
195 > 201 (+6)
201 > 207 (+6)

I expect them to be more aggressive considering inflation (and the general awareness thereof) but I don't expect them to match the ~8% of the CPI based on current discounts, but if they do that puts it at +16 at $223/pt. However, if there's a very clear recession by late December I could see them going conservative and stick to the recent pattern and increase by just +6 to $213/pt. These are my high/low. Ultimately I think we'll see a jump bigger than prior years on the normal schedule, something more like a +10 to +14 bump to $217-221/pt.

I expect this price to apply to VDH, AUL, VGF, and RIV. They'll find the sweetspot for each with discounts. Considering this will not be a small number of points, around 3.4mil if the VGC points chart is matched, I think it's extremely unlikely they price VDH at a premium. VGC is currently at an extreme premium because it's sold out and they only have a few hundred points at a time to sell and they have to have margin over resale (which is also their supply).

I even expect VDH to have discounts, even in pre-sales (RIV and VGF2 both did), at least for existing owners.

I expect longterm demand to be lower than many are expecting (hyperbolically, some seem to think the entire resort will sell out in pre-sales). Based on VGC's original sales, it's reasonable that demand will be lower than the best-selling WDW resort any given month (RIV/VGF for now, Poly2 later). In 2023, I think it's likely discounted prices will be closer to VGF than RIV, but I'd expect stronger discounts later into sales.

 

[Genie+]

Would they, could they make the point chart higher for DLT?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Everyone jumped off a cliff with VGF2, and they were all wrong.

Prior to VDH going on sale, RIV/VGF/AUL will get a price increase. VDH will launch at that same price, which I expect will be around $215. It will launch with incentives for existing owners.

VGC sold-out pricing is irrelevant because sold-out pricing has never affected actively selling resorts.

Would they, could they make the point chart higher for DLT?

Higher than Grand Cal? I would be shocked. "Better" resorts (as defined by Disney) have higher points charts than "worse" resorts.

 

[Jwaire]

It's going to be a large resort in terms of size (I've read 300+ rooms?). I don't see it being over $220. It's not going to be priced at a premium point wise. The premium will come with the number of points required per night. It will be the same base price available for every other resort when it goes on sale.

I also expect them to lower the minimum buy-in points (50 maybe?) since they'll be targeting California residents who only stay a few nights here and there throughout the year. Those saying it's going to have a 150 point minimum are going to be surprised.

With all that said, I think this resort is overhyped. I love the DLH for it's nostalgia factor, but it's location is not the greatest right now (if DisneylandForward ever goes forward that may change).

You're talking at least 20-25+ minute walk minimum through crowded Downtown Disney to get to the gates of Disneyland Park and California Adventure from the DVC building. The monorail is always shut down for weather, maintenance or lack of staffing.

The resort is just not as convenient as some of the off-property hotels on S Harbor.

The question becomes since the Grand Californian's hotel side is rarely completely booked, will they convert over hotel rooms and expand DVC there? Seems to be their strategy to handle these aging huge hotel properties.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I expect longterm demand to be lower than many are expecting (hyperbolically, some seem to think the entire resort will sell out in pre-sales). Based on VGC's original sales, it's reasonable that demand will be lower than the best-selling WDW resort any given month (RIV/VGF for now, Poly2 later). In 2023, I think it's likely discounted prices will be closer to VGF than RIV, but I'd expect stronger discounts later into sales.

Amen. The fanatics will make initial sales look amazing, but I think they could be challenged long-term for a number of reasons. First, the existing DVC membership is concentrated on the US East Coast and the UK. Second, West Coast people don't visit Florida all that often so the draw of the existing DVC portfolio won't be as strong. Lastly, people don't visit Disneyland for a week, they visit for a few days/nights. I think they could run into some pushback on the 150 point minimum buy.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

It's going to be a large resort in terms of size (I've read 300+ rooms?). I don't see it being over $220. It's not going to be priced at a premium point wise. The premium will come with the number of points required per night. It will be the same base price available for every other resort when it goes on sale.

I agree that it won't have a premium base price. But they're not going to inflate the points chart beyond Grand Cal, for all of the reasons you laid out later in your post. I think the premium will come from lower discounts.

I also expect them to lower the minimum buy-in points (50 maybe?) since they'll be targeting California residents who only stay a few nights here and there throughout the year. Those saying it's going to have a 150 point minimum are going to be surprised.

Are you also suggesting that these 50 point buyers would qualify for Blue Card?

With all that said, I think this resort is overhyped. I love the DLH for it's nostalgia factor, but it's location is not the greatest right now (if DisneylandForward ever goes forward that may change).

You're talking at least 20-25+ minute walk minimum through crowded Downtown Disney to get to the gates of Disneyland Park and California Adventure from the DVC building. The monorail is always shut down for weather, maintenance or lack of staffing. The resort is just not as convenient as some of the off-property hotels on S Harbor.

The question becomes since the Grand Californian's hotel side is rarely completely booked, will they convert over hotel rooms and expand DVC there? Seems to be their strategy to handle these aging huge hotel properties.

All good points.

 

[Jwaire]

I agree that it won't have a premium base price. But they're not going to inflate the points chart beyond Grand Cal, for all of the reasons you laid out later in your post. I think the premium will come from lower discounts.


Are you also suggesting that these 50 point buyers would qualify for Blue Card?


All good points.

I don't know what they'll do. I just think they'll have to do something for California residents, which is their target market. They just don't come to Disneyland to stay 4 or 5 days like we do at Walt Disney World.

Something else I'll point out, you won't even be getting your own security checkpoint/gate like the new Pixar Place Hotel or Grand Californian for DCA. You're going to walk 20-25 minutes to wind up in a long security line every morning to enter Disneyland Park and while DLH guests can use the DCA entrance at Gran Cal, most don't even know you can.

DVC was a tough sell at Disneyland and I'm not sure this tower is going to make it any better this go around.

 

[tidefan]

I put $220, but that, I think will be the base price. I think that there will be opening incentives to get this thing moving as quick as they can. All the points above are completely valid. In the pro-sales points, there is definitely pent up demand and this will be a popular destination.

However... I think that you will definitely see a lower per point contract size is the norm here for reasons laid out above. Many people that are not West Coast will buy for maybe a 4/5 night stay every 2 to 3 years. That's not going to require 150 point contracts. Also as stated above, there is much more "location-friendly" competition in Anaheim than in Lake Buena Vista. Some off site hotels are closer to gate entry than VDH will be. With 3.4 million-ish points, that is going to be a LOT of small contracts to sell. My guess is that what you'll see is somewhere around $215/$220 pp base and no discounts (or maybe a small first week of sales discount like they did for VGF1) for 100 points and under and I bet they have pretty generous discounts on higher point levels to try to drive those contract sizes. Time will tell.

Unrelated note. As to Aulani... We have been there 4 times now and plan on going much more. In talking to people out there, it really didn't seem like they are in any rush to sell points. Yes, they definitely try to sell, and want to sell, that's not what I'm saying, but the vibe I got was that the rooms themselves stay pretty booked between DVC users booking at 7 months and the remaining inventory apparently does pretty well in cash sales. In other words, they are able to rent out the breakage inventory pretty well there. So, I think Aulani is a bit of an odd duck. It's not a DVC sales success, but it's not a failure either. They don't have a huge problem filling the place...

 

[RoseGold]

VDH will launch at that same price, which I expect will be around $215. It will launch with incentives for existing owners.

This is crazy to me to imagine a world where resale VGC has been over 280 for a long time and DLT is 215. If this is right, the time to buy VGC is soon.

 

[kristenrice]

I have a couple of things I've heard people say and want to throw something out there...

First, people have pointed out that locals and even tourists don't typically visit DL for a full week. It is a 2-4 day destination.
Second, because of this, and the fact that DLT will be mostly studios, a minimum contract of 150 points seems to be a bit excessive and may be a turnoff for sales, especially if DVD wants to "shoot the moon" with their pricing.

My question is, why should we assume that the points chart will be in line with the WDW resorts? If a typical DL stay is truly only 3 nights, then why wouldn't we see a studio priced at, say 50 points on the weeknights and 75 points on weekends? That would make an "average" contract 150-200 points for an "average" stay. I admit, that's hyperbole, but I wouldn't think that a starting range of 30 points for a studio would be entirely out of the realm of possibility. I think they will still fill the resort and sell the points. It may even quell the rental market because, at $22 a point, rentals would be almost the same as rack rates.

I'm sure I am missing something and my thought process is very elementary so feel free to point out the flaws in my logic .

 

[Jwaire]

Unrelated note. As to Aulani... We have been there 4 times now and plan on going much more. In talking to people out there, it really didn't seem like they are in any rush to sell points. Yes, they definitely try to sell, and want to sell, that's not what I'm saying, but the vibe I got was that the rooms themselves stay pretty booked between DVC users booking at 7 months and the remaining inventory apparently does pretty well in cash sales. In other words, they are able to rent out the breakage inventory pretty well there. So, I think Aulani is a bit of an odd duck. It's not a DVC sales success, but it's not a failure either. They don't have a huge problem filling the place...

Aulani is an odd duck. I think it was money loser for years, but its reputation (and Disney's mass marketing of the resort) has quietly turned it into more of a getaway. Do they still own all 20+ acres of land there or did they sell it off? If they put in a themed water park, they could really set it up to be a kind of like Disney Cruise-on-land destination.

This is crazy to me to imagine a world where resale VGC has been over 280 for a long time and DLT is 215. If this is right, the time to buy VGC is soon.

It's been dipping recently. I just don't feel like they're going to be equal resorts in any way (location, park access, food, entertainment, room type, etc.). Also, we know from Grand Flordian and coming soon Poly, the resale price doesn't matter.

My question is, why should we assume that the points chart will be in line with the WDW resorts? If a typical DL stay is truly only 3 nights, then why wouldn't we see a studio priced at, say 50 points on the weeknights and 75 points on weekends? That would make an "average" contract 150-200 points for an "average" stay. I admit, that's hyperbole, but I wouldn't think that a starting range of 30 points for a studio would be entirely out of the realm of possibility. I think they will still fill the resort and sell the points. It may even quell the rental market because, at $22 a point, rentals would be almost the same as rack rates.

I'm sure I am missing something and my thought process is very elementary so feel free to point out the flaws in my logic .

Because of Grand Cal's point chart. Many don't expect VDLH to exceed it.

 

[RoseGold]

If a typical DL stay is truly only 3 nights, then why wouldn't we see a studio priced at, say 50 points on the weeknights and 75 points on weekends?

Of course. DVC has several levers they can pull. Price, charts, and resale restrictions. I expect them to pull all three. I guess some people don't expect them to pull one or another.

 

[tidefan]

I have a couple of things I've heard people say and want to throw something out there...

First, people have pointed out that locals and even tourists don't typically visit DL for a full week. It is a 2-4 day destination.
Second, because of this, and the fact that DLT will be mostly studios, a minimum contract of 150 points seems to be a bit excessive and may be a turnoff for sales, especially if DVD wants to "shoot the moon" with their pricing.

My question is, why should we assume that the points chart will be in line with the WDW resorts? If a typical DL stay is truly only 3 nights, then why wouldn't we see a studio priced at, say 50 points on the weeknights and 75 points on weekends? That would make an "average" contract 150-200 points for an "average" stay. I admit, that's hyperbole, but I wouldn't think that a starting range of 30 points for a studio would be entirely out of the realm of possibility. I think they will still fill the resort and sell the points. It may even quell the rental market because, at $22 a point, rentals would be almost the same as rack rates.

I'm sure I am missing something and my thought process is very elementary so feel free to point out the flaws in my logic .

Because if that's the case, I think most people would just stay at the Best Western/Westin/Fairfield/Howard Johnson/etc. across the street... DL is very different in that the DL Hotels are also competing much more with off-site accommodations than in Florida.

I think a high point chart (higher than VGC) would turn off many potential buyers and they'd just stay at the Element (like we are doing next year!) or something like that...

 

[Jwaire]

Because if that's the case, I think most people would just stay at the Best Western/Westin/Fairfield/Howard Johnson/etc. across the street... DL is very different in that the DL Hotels are also competing much more with off-site accommodations than in Florida.

And, unfortunately, some of the off site hotels are much closer, have nicer rooms (talking to you Grand Cal) and include more amenities including more food choices.

 

[tjkraz]

Didn't we just do this with VGF?

There will be an increase to the $207 price in early 2023 and VDH's price will be whatever that rate is. Maybe they go higher than the usual $7-8 increase ($220?). Whatever.

It won't be $300 per point. It won't be $250 per point. There's some small chance Diercksen's regime could go off-book and introduce a higher rate for VDH than other resorts, but we have 10+ years of pricing history which suggests that won't happen.

The real money is in the point charts. And there's no way DVC will feel obligated to make VDH cheaper than VGC just because it's further away from parks, more rooms, etc. A 150-point minimum purchase will at most yield 2-3 weekends / long weekends per year in a studio. More in the cozy little Pods.

I get that there's pent up demand for a Disneyland DVC. But that demand has limits. It wasn't all that long ago that some were predicting VGF would sell out in 6 months. After the initial burst, sales plateaued and now we're looking more like 20-24 months. Even at current prices, DVC is already a THIRTY THOUSAND DOLLAR purchase. VDH has almost twice as many rooms as VGF2, and probably more than 2x as many points.

Edit: One more comment to add. For the last 2+ months, Riviera has outsold VGF head to head. There are at least 3 factors contributing to this:

1. Some buyers don't care about resale restrictions
2. Some buyers actually like Riviera better
3. Some buyers are sensitive to price; at 150 points, Riviera is currently $9 cheaper...about 4.3%

Speaking to the last point, DVC can't simply charge whatever they wish and assume customers will follow. For all intents and purposes, VDH won't have any DVC competition when it debuts. But there's enormous competition from surrounding hotels and properties. VGF's early sales success happened because the initial customer reaction was "wow, that's pretty good", not "ouch that really hurts." They can always raise prices / scale back discounts later in the process.

VDH is large enough that it will be bookable at 7 months. A lot of east-coasters will rethink their plans if prices are too high. Buy Riviera or VGF instead.

 

[Jwaire]

The real money is in the point charts. And there's no way DVC will feel obligated to make VDH cheaper than VGC just because it's further away from parks, more rooms, etc. A 150-point minimum purchase will at most yield 2-3 weekends / long weekends per year in a studio. More in the cozy little Pods.

History would disagree.

Many believed the resort studios at VGF would be more than the traditional studio. That didn't happen.
Many believed RIV would have a higher point chart than VGF. That didn't happen.
Many believed CC would have a higher point chart than BRV. That didn't happen either.

DVC knows what it's doing. They want this thing to sell and book up. They have a hard enough time filling the DLR hotels as it is between Sunday and Thursday. They're constantly running specials for affinity groups (Disney Visa holders, APs, etc.). Availability is wide open at Disneyland.

Now, they'll have more grand villas to pump up and sell at higher points per night, but I don't expect a standard studio, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom to exceed VGC. VGC has a high enough point chart as it is.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

The real money is in the point charts. And there's no way DVC will feel obligated to make VDH cheaper than VGC just because it's further away from parks, more rooms, etc. A 150-point minimum purchase will at most yield 2-3 weekends / long weekends per year in a studio. More in the cozy little Pods.

That is false, it's a myth, it's always been a myth, and I've debunked it over and over again. Points charts are proportional to the cash prices of the hotels, always. Grand Floridian is more expensive than Bay Lake Tower is more expensive than Animal Kingdom Savannah is more expensive than Wilderness Lodge is more expensive than Animal Kingdom Standard. The rank-order of points charts is exactly in line with the rank-order of rack rates.

The Villas at Disneyland Hotel will cost fewer points than the Villas at Grand Californian because the Disneyland Hotel (cash) is cheaper than the Grand Californian Hotel (cash).

 

[RoseGold]

The Villas at Disneyland Hotel will cost fewer points than the Villas at Grand Californian because the Disneyland Hotel (cash) is cheaper than the Grand Californian Hotel (cash).

Boldest prediction here!