Disney's Q1 FY14 Earnings Results Webcast 2/5 @ 5PM

[ArthurKing1220]

Yes, I'm sure Disney has gotten to where they are by lying to investors and Wall Street when it comes to profit drivers (attendance up, guest spending up, etc.)

These analysts would crush Iger and company if they thought he was misleading them, but hey, I'm sure you have it all figured out. These analysts are all just Disney World fans.

I know about 75% of this board is rooting for Universal to overtake WDW, or even just to cut into their market share, but guess what? Not going to happen anytime soon, if ever.

This is a well-known issue amongst analysts. It's just one that Disney refuses to resolve and in fact has made worse as they've doubled down on DVC. There's nothing legally misleading about what they're doing -- they're within the bounds of accounting rules and standards -- but it is obfuscating the growth components of the category all the same.

There's no reason not to release these figures unless there is something that they don't want to fully reveal to the market and/or their competitors. The ambiguity allows them to obscure the fact that organic, park-based growth is more likely than not notthe primary driver of growth in this category and hasn't been for a few years now.

I get concerned when I see an entertainment conglomerate becoming a miniature real estate developer. Particularly where they use the revenue derived from that foray to obscure the fact that one of their halo segments (the parks) is delivering underwhelming growth. Maybe, that's just crazy 'ole me though.

P.S. In your response to your edit about Universal: I'm not rooting for anything. Don't confuse critique with ill intentions.

 

[mvk]

This is a well-known issue amongst analysts. It's just one that Disney refuses to resolve and in fact has made worse as they've doubled down on DVC. There's nothing legally misleading about what they're doing -- they're within the bounds of accounting rules and standards -- but it is obfuscating the growth components of the category.

There's no reason not to release these figures unless there is something that they don't want to fully reveal to the market and/or their competitors. The ambiguity allows them to obscure the fact that organic, park-based growth is more likely than not notthe primary driver of growth in this category and hasn't been for a few years now.

I get concerned when I see an entertainment conglomerate becoming a miniature real estate developer. Particularly where they use the revenue derived from that foray to obscure the fact that one of their halo segments (the parks) is delivering underwhelming growth. Maybe, that's just crazy 'ole me though.

P.S. In your response to your edit about Universal: I'm not rooting for anything. Don't confuse critique with ill intentions.

These analysts and institutional investors are smart enough to know when they're being duped. If they thought for a second that Disney was hiding something, it would be a huge issue.

They gave per capita (up 8% on higher ticket prices plus increases food and beverage spending) and per room spending (up 5%) numbers. How detailed do they have to get into on a quarterly earnings call?

 

[OnSpaceshipEarth]

Yes, I'm sure Disney has gotten to where they are by lying to investors and Wall Street when it comes to profit drivers (attendance up, guest spending up, etc.)

These analysts would crush Iger and company if they thought he was misleading them, but hey, I'm sure you have it all figured out. These analysts are all just Disney World fans.

I know about 75% of this board is rooting for Universal to overtake WDW, or even just to cut into their market share, but guess what? Not going to happen anytime soon, if ever.

I'm a Disney fan through and through and don't give a flying flip about Universal(never have). I do hope that their growing success prompts Disney to up the ante, though, in all areas(especially the parks).

 

[Yellowstonetim]

These analysts and institutional investors are smart enough to know when they're being duped. If they thought for a second that Disney was hiding something, it would be a huge issue.

They gave per capita (up 8% on higher ticket prices plus increases food and beverage spending) and per room spending (up 5%) numbers. How detailed do they have to get into on a quarterly earnings call?

I thought it was rather clear, too. They are either telling the truth or lying to investors which would get them in trouble. It isn't worth it. They are making money all the way around and it is a good quarter.

While you cannot make long term conclusions, it is telling that all the doom and gloom about MM+, supposed shorter trips, more time at Universal, etc., that was stated about this fall and winter was not reflected in the 4th quarter. It is only one quarter, but it is one quarter with higher profits.

 

[ArthurKing1220]

These analysts and institutional investors are smart enough to know when they're being duped. If they thought for a second that Disney was hiding something, it would be a huge issue.

They gave per capita (up 8% on higher ticket prices plus increases food and beverage spending) and per room spending (up 5%) numbers. How detailed do they have to get into on a quarterly earnings call?

I've told you exactly what I want: I want to see DVC broken out from the parks & recreation category to disambiguate their growth claims. Not a complicated request but one that Disney has refused to do for several years now. I wonder why?

I thought it was rather clear, too. They are either telling the truth or lying to investors which would get them in trouble. It isn't worth it. They are making money all the way around and it is a good quarter.

No one is claiming Disney is lying. They're withholding category information. It's their legal right to do so -- there is no obligation that they break it down. But it raises questions about the actual composition of their growth. 10Qs and 10Ks are not necessarily corporate "tell-alls" -- they're corporate "tell the minimum required by law, plus what we feel internally will benefit our position." Corporations and investors disagree about how to draw that line. I'm sure you can tell what side I'm on vis-a-vis this particular issue.

 

[Yellowstonetim]

They gave per capita (up 8% on higher ticket prices plus increases food and beverage spending) and per room spending (up 5%) numbers.QUOTE]

I've told you exactly what I want: I want to see DVC broken out from the parks & recreation category to disambiguate their growth claims. Not a complicated request but one that Disney has refused to do for several years now. I wonder why?

No one is claiming Disney is lying. They're withholding category information. It's their legal right to do so -- there is no obligation that they break it down. But it raises questions about the actual composition of their growth. 10Qs and 10Ks are not necessarily corporate "tell-alls" -- they're corporate "tell the minimum required by law, plus what we feel internally will benefit our position." Corporations and investors disagree about how to draw that line. I'm sure you can tell what side I'm on vis-a-vis this particular issue.

What does DVC matter? Per room spending was up, ticket prices were up with increased attendance, and there was increased food and beverage spending. Why does it matter whether they stayed at All Stars or a DVC? They still spent more and profits were up.

Am I missing something?

 

[OnSpaceshipEarth]

They gave per capita (up 8% on higher ticket prices plus increases food and beverage spending) and per room spending (up 5%) numbers.QUOTE]



What does DVC matter? Per room spending was up, ticket prices were up with increased attendance, and there was increased food and beverage spending. Why does it matter whether they stayed at All Stars or a DVC? They still spent more and profits were up.

Am I missing something?

Yeah...I was wondering the same thing. If they are staying at a DVC property why should that not count as growth for Parks and Resorts?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Actually, I was blessed with great timing. I'm luckily at the ripe old age of 26, the only thing that made me stressed and dropping those 10 pounds in 2009-2010 was trying to find gainful employment. I started my 401 in 2011 and bought my home just as the housing market bottomed out at their lowest prices and interest rates. And now my assets are diversified over a multitude of options and I'm a year ahead on my mortgage...I feel pretty good about my financial future and living life to the fullest each day. Who says Millennials don't have a hold on their future? However, there are many out there not so lucky and your advice is quite applicable to them.

And to you as well...

Those "diversified" assets you speak of are going to ride a roller coaster over your whole working life (realistically... 60 years)...and at somepoint you will sell some of those assets to pay for things that are a ridiculous waste of money (weddings...$300,000 psychology degrees)...that you wished nothing more than to have back.

Congrats on that year though.

Still...live now.

Mitt Romney once said "there's two types of Americans...the millionaires and the FUTURE millionaires"

Well...he lied...but he also set a new world record by saying a dozen words with that much shoe leather in his mouth.

I have 3 houses...but that doesn't mean much...live in the now. I'll check you down the road

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Yes, I'm sure Disney has gotten to where they are by lying to investors and Wall Street when it comes to profit drivers (attendance up, guest spending up, etc.)
.

You realize that all business do this to some extent...

And banks, analysts, ratings agencies, hedge funds, mutuals, insurance, and even government officials all support the lies...in a roundabout way.

Because they all get paid somewhere down the line...in some way or another.

Honestly...you might want to be a little more skeptical...especially about Disney.

I've spent five years reading everything I could about the housing bubble and the very near global/civilization meltdown...asking why?

Unfortunately the answer is and always be the same... It's just how much sludge you put on top of it.

Short term greed twists the truth

 

[beer dave]

The only sense I could make of it was that on days of peak capacity (Christmas, NYE), they were able to allow 3000 additional guests in the park beyond what they have in the past. And the most direct way to do that would seem to be Standby queues (although I've never been in MK on these days, thus have no idea what Standby queues looked like before or after FP+)

Whatever the case, increasing total park capacity on the handful of days where they often have phased closures doesn't have an enormous impact on the bottom line. 3000 people with average ticket prices around $60 means $180K on...what...4 or 5 days per year?

Iger loses that sort of coin in his sofa cushions.

I agree they gave the impression that the 3K is far more meaningful than it appears to be.

I said this in another thread, but it seems more applicable here-- couldn't the increase in park capacity be due to the now larger park? Wasn't it in the last year that FLE walkways finally became open around the mine train construction? This holiday season may be the first occasion where the park has reached any level of closings, so it may have been the first time the park was at it's new capacity. If capacity is based on walkway volume, it doesn't matter where the people are in the park. Isn't the capacity really based on evacuation? (safety)

This would explain why there is no mention of increased capacity in the other parks.

 

[surferdave]

I think the extra 3000 are just the ones lined up in the World Showcase patiently waiting to meet Anna and Elsa.

 

[mvk]

You realize that all business do this to some extent...

And banks, analysts, ratings agencies, hedge funds, mutuals, insurance, and even government officials all support the lies...in a roundabout way.

Because they all get paid somewhere down the line...in some way or another.

Honestly...you might want to be a little more skeptical...especially about Disney.

I've spent five years reading everything I could about the housing bubble and the very near global/civilization meltdown...asking why?

Unfortunately the answer is and always be the same... It's just how much sludge you put on top of it.

Short term greed twists the truth

I'm well aware of the things that caused the housing bubble, and also what steps both corporations and governments around the world have taken to try to ensure it doesn't happen again (or at least limit damage). I'm in the risk department of one of the biggest banks in the country, one that wasn't affected at all by the financial meltdown.

I see everyday the things that are happening at large corporations, and the responsibilities they now have due to what happened five or so years ago.

It's not the wild west anymore, as it was a decade ago. Some smaller shops might be able to get away with stuff because the glare isn't on them, but large corporations and banks are not. They simply can't dupe investors and regulators into believing things aren't what they appear to be in financial reporting.

But yeah, let's just all act like Disney is lying to the public with their financials, because, well, just because it's Disney and they don't do anything right.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

You certainly have more faith than I do...based on experience...

But you can't possibly tell me that you feel the problems have been "corrected" to the point of confidence.

They backed off some of the most risky practices for sure...but much of the risky procedures and practices still remain...
Are you telling me that they reset leverage amounts back to glass Steagall? Or attempted to isolate speculation/investment/derivatives from the commercial side of these huge mega-banks... Which absolutely should be segregated (if not completely unrelated... Which the new deal accomplished as a safeguard effectively until
The Clinton's started thinking big?)

I'm understandably skeptical.

But I'm not saying that Disney lies about everything...far from it. But they do a bit of a shell game with their numbers to garner extra
Confidence from the markets and consumers. It's not illegal...I'm sure they are highly audited by the "big five" (half don't exist...because they were caught book cooking) and the ratings agencies (who gave highest level ratings to securities issued by bear, Lehman, and AIG backed junk in some case mere hours before they collapsed)...I'm sure they follow all the rules .

But Disney does legal number twisting... DCL is included (when they want to) within parks...when the two have absolutely nothing to do with each other. And DVC ( ddc) is not included in wdw/parks...where it absolutely could not exist on any level without it.

Just a matter of perspective...I suppose.

Is it PNC? Just a guess...please tell me
Not the horse and buggy bank...Wachovia was pure junk