Disneyland Reopening Speculation Superthread

[montreid]

Yes @theluckyrabbit posted earlier this week higher up -- yes, trending downward off the peaks.

OC - prior to the surge was flirting with Orange tier but couldn't sustain the rate level of <3.9 per 100,000. OC peaked about 99 per 100,000 at end of the year and currently ~46 per 100,000 with downward trends continuing.

https://ochca.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/cc4859c8c522496b9f21c451de2fedae
Refresher:
Current rules states we need to stay in each tier 2 weeks and achieve new tier levels for 2 weeks before dropping down again.
Under BEST circumstances, that will require 3 tier drops over 6 weeks to get to yellow tier where DLR can reopen at 25% capacity.

Next step: OC to get <7.0 per 100,000 and sustain for 2 weeks to red tier. Day 0 currently.

A few models for San Diego (which tracks relatively the same as OC throughout the pandemic) has a Red tier drop by end of March.

So under OPTIMAL conditions looking at Mid-May for Yellow.

 

[TikiTikiFan]

I wonder if we might see policy changes to the tiers regarding reopening as Newsom faces more political pressure with the recall effort/criticisms from Dem party members/etc. To tread lightly here to avoid political rabbit holes and stay on topic, it could be possible we’ll see a new approach if cases continue to trend downward. There’s been a lot of speculation in the news about how he might switch tactics so guess we’ll see.

I’m hoping at the least we see the tier system modified in some way. I think with the political chaos this all just got a bit harder to predict for us Disney armchair analysts.

 

[DLgal]

Yes @theluckyrabbit posted earlier this week higher up -- yes, trending downward off the peaks.

OC - prior to the surge was flirting with Orange tier but couldn't sustain the rate level of <3.9 per 100,000. OC peaked about 99 per 100,000 at end of the year and currently ~46 per 100,000 with downward trends continuing.

https://ochca.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/cc4859c8c522496b9f21c451de2fedae
Refresher:
Current rules states we need to stay in each tier 2 weeks and achieve new tier levels for 2 weeks before dropping down again.
Under BEST circumstances, that will require 3 tier drops over 6 weeks to get to yellow tier where DLR can reopen at 25% capacity.

Next step: OC to get <7.0 per 100,000 and sustain for 2 weeks to red tier. Day 0 currently.

A few models for San Diego (which tracks relatively the same as OC throughout the pandemic) has a Red tier drop by end of March.

So under OPTIMAL conditions looking at Mid-May for Yellow.

I follow someone on FB who analyzes OC metrics. He has us qualifying for red tier either feb 8 or 11, so if we sustain the numbers for 2 weeks, switching to Red tier either Feb 25 or Mar 2. It depends whether they use the prior 7 day or 14 day average. They had been using 14 day averages until they switched to the "ICU Demand" model and went with 7 day moving averages. So, we have to wait and see what they decide to do going forward.

I can see a scenario where Disneyland is able to reopen in mid April.

I can also honestly see a scenario where the governor relents and allows theme parks to open in Orange tier. He seems much more willing to bend to pressure now.

 

[AZMermaid]

But able to open and open are different things. If they hit yellow on Mid April, it seems likely that DL will at that point start to recall cast members and will still need 3-4 weeks to be ready. Maybe they’ll call back a week before hitting yellow, but after all this, I don't think they’ll jump the gun by much. But hearing April-May as even a possibility gives me a glimmer of hope for my Memorial Day weekend stay. Now just the issue of tickets.... haha. Hopefully hotel guests will have priority. I’ve got to think so. When we analyzed this to death earlier, hotels at full capacity (4-5 per room, every room) would still not hit 30% parks capacity. It also seems possible that they’ll just open 2 hotels at first.

 

[SeaDis]

I wonder if we might see policy changes to the tiers regarding reopening as Newsom faces more political pressure with the recall effort/criticisms from Dem party members/etc. To tread lightly here to avoid political rabbit holes and stay on topic, it could be possible we’ll see a new approach if cases continue to trend downward. There’s been a lot of speculation in the news about how he might switch tactics so guess we’ll see.

I’m hoping at the least we see the tier system modified in some way. I think with the political chaos this all just got a bit harder to predict for us Disney armchair analysts.

Exactly. This happened in WA last week-- the Gov had set four metrics to meet and, surprise, dropped it to only need 3 out of 4 which allowed the large metro areas to start phase 2 on 2/1. Other areas are at 2 out of 4 and I suspect will follow quickly.

I speculate none of this is set in stone. They tweaked it on the way up and no reason they can't tweak on the way back.

 

[montreid]

I follow someone on FB who analyzes OC metrics. He has us qualifying for red tier either feb 8 or 11, so if we sustain the numbers for 2 weeks, switching to Red tier either Feb 25 or Mar 2. It depends whether they use the prior 7 day or 14 day average. They had been using 14 day averages until they switched to the "ICU Demand" model and went with 7 day moving averages. So, we have to wait and see what they decide to do going forward.

I can see a scenario where Disneyland is able to reopen in mid April.

I can also honestly see a scenario where the governor relents and allows theme parks to open in Orange tier. He seems much more willing to bend to pressure now.

Absolutely he can and probably will as the whole yellow tier 25% without any future beyond that was such a lead balloon and really made no sense from many standpoints -- but avoiding the weeds as to not get distracted -- the current rules stand-- yellow tier.

Entering by end of Feb is an aggressive model and at the tail end of the predictions-- still possible as the curve really is improving last week--- BUT the stay-at-home restrictions were lifted this week, so will be interesting to see if that impacts significantly (balanced with the increased vaccinations into 1A and the elderly.

Mid-April for yellow is like predicting that Gamestop's short squeeze would happen.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

Exactly. This happened in WA last week-- the Gov had set four metrics to meet and, surprise, dropped it to only need 3 out of 4 which allowed the large metro areas to start phase 2 on 2/1. Other areas are at 2 out of 4 and I suspect will follow quickly.

I speculate none of this is set in stone. They tweaked it on the way up and no reason they can't tweak on the way back.

Yeah, certainly the existence of the vaccine now makes it a different world than it was 6 months ago, so there is a reasonable argument for changing the guidelines/tier system as the vaccination rate continues to improve.

 

[DLgal]

Yeah, certainly the existence of the vaccine now makes it a different world than it was 6 months ago, so there is a reasonable argument for changing the guidelines/tier system as the vaccination rate continues to improve.

Not to mention that our governor actually said that the tier system would be in place "until there is a vaccine available."

At this point, with declining metrics (if they continue on that path), a strong case can be made for eliminating the tiered framework altogether in favor of providing basic guidelines that all businesses should adopt in order to open all sectors safely.

 

[lily_belle]

I realize there are so many “what if’s” and other variables but it does make me happy to see speculation happening again. I would be thrilled if I could have a redo on the Mother’s Day trip that was cancelled last year but realistically planning on October.

 

[edhmom]

I realize there are so many “what if’s” and other variables but it does make me happy to see speculation happening again. I would be thrilled if I could have a redo on the Mother’s Day trip that was cancelled last year but realistically planning on October.

I'm holding onto hope to celebrate my daughter's 21st birthday in June this year. Was supposed to celebrate 20th last year, but to celebrate her 21st at Disneyland would be pretty cool. She's not holding her breath, but I'm hopeful.

 

[TexasErin]

I have reservations for VGC for June 12-22. I got fantastic prices on flights from Dallas to LAX. I am going crazy trying to figure out if I should just change my flights to WDW and book there instead. I hate to wait and not be able to get any good DVC reservations at WDW, but I hate to give up the chance to go back to Disneyland. We all miss it so much!

 

[amyg1975]

Great America plans to reopen on May 22nd. https://www.cagreatamerica.com/park-update Interesting!

 

[DLgal]

Great America plans to reopen on May 22nd. https://www.cagreatamerica.com/park-update Interesting!

Yeah, I found that announcement odd, although that is their usual opening date every season, isn't it?

 

[Kender]

Yeah, I found that announcement odd, although that is their usual opening date every season, isn't it?

They usually open in late March, but with a limited open schedule. Late May kicks off summer hours.

 

[BadPinkTink]

https://www.latimes.com/california/...reopen-countys-covid-19-numbers-remain-steady
SeaWorld San Diego has announced that it will reopen Saturday under the state’s operating rules for zoos and aquariums.

Reservations will be required, and park rides will remain closed, according to Friday’s announcement. The park reported it would release more details about its reopening Monday.

 

[midnight star]

https://www.latimes.com/california/...reopen-countys-covid-19-numbers-remain-steady
SeaWorld San Diego has announced that it will reopen Saturday under the state’s operating rules for zoos and aquariums.

Reservations will be required, and park rides will remain closed, according to Friday’s announcement. The park reported it would release more details about its reopening Monday.

Nice! The San Diego zoo reopened this weekend so makes sense Sea world is opening now too

 

[mlggator22]

I went to the zoo yesterday. It was so nice to be out the house. It was a great experience.

They had a brand new baby giraffe that was born on Saturday, so not even a full day old when I saw him or her (not sure if it was a boy or girl)

 

[Lumpy1106]

I went to the zoo yesterday. It was so nice to be out the house. It was a great experience.

They had a brand new baby giraffe that was born on Saturday, so not even a full day old when I saw him or her (not sure if it was a boy or girl)

Was it as crowded as the pictures I saw on Social Media? We thought about heading down there but decided it would be too much of a "zoo" (pun intended). With nothing else going on it seemed like the place everyone would be headed.

 

[mlggator22]

you have to make reservations. We got there right at opening it was really nice. By the time we were ready to leave at 2 pm, it was definitely more crowded, but not to the point that you couldn't space yourself out. I had no problem keeping greater than 6 feet distance at most places. The only time it got overly crowded for me were at the Gorillas and at the hippo (both were right up against the glass which was drawing a lot of people). In those cases, I just moved on. It was less crowded that other times that I have gone. It was less crowded than Disney World was in November.

 

[montreid]

Zoo tends to be crowded and social distancing not well practiced. Sea World has been very good and improved since reopening.

Didn't go this weekend, but colleague did Safari park -- it was a bit mayhem there per her report.