DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[wabbott]

No idea what value there is in tracking the price of Disney stock daily unless you are perhaps a day trader. If you are investing for your retirement, the horizon should be a much longer timeframe. Work with your financial advisor to have a portfolio that matches your goals and look at how things are going perhaps quarterly. Might include various stocks and/or mutual funds. If you own various mutual funds, those fund managers make the decisions on which stocks to own. Markets move up or down for a lot of reasons, some of which are totally unrelated to a specific company and there isn't anyone with a good enough crystal ball to predict the future.

Those with short memories probably forgot how much the markets were down when covid first got started. Things recovered as time went on. Or even 6 months ago when many acted like all of the markets would always go up 10+% annually?

I'm not selling. I've been a long-term buy and hold investor for almost 50 years, and I've seen plenty of crashes. Six months ago, I told the old coots that I drink coffee with that making money in the market was getting too easy. And when that happens, a correction is coming. But I am vitally interested in seeing DIS healthy and run properly. As long as the stock is high, the likelihood of corporate raiders buying the company is lessened. It almost happened in the mid 80s, and then again in 2004 when Comcast made a hostile bid. I want to see it flourish and continue to provide quality family entertainment forever. As I'm sure everyone here on these discussion boards do. We love the product and it's a big, big part of our lives. That's why the stock price is important.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I'm convinced that if you took all the stock analysts and laid them end to end they still wouldn't reach a conclusion.

I was about to write something similar...if anything most analysts are contrarian. They usually raise price targets when they want their firms to unload and the opposite when their overlords want to load up on the cheap. One thing that's abundantly clear from seeing the market in action for decades, but very specifically the last few years starting in 08, is that it is closer to a ponzi scheme run by mostly criminals that work within the loose framework allowed by the laws their very institution created. The illusion of it being a free market that allows all participants an equal chance of making riches is just smoke and mirrors much like the Haunted Mansion.

 

[New Mouse]

Not just increasing subs but increasing per sub revenue.

Per sub revenue is going to increase by default as people fall off all those free or discounted subscriptions.

 

[BrianL]

Per sub revenue is going to increase by default as people fall off all those free or discounted subscriptions.

Yeah, that will be me when my sweetheart 3 year sub expires in November! I'll just have to deal with it.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Yeah, that will be me when my sweetheart 3 year sub expires in November! I'll just have to deal with it.

same here! It is a sweet promo though

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

.

 

[wabbott]

I think Eisner kind of fell backwards into that one, if i remember correctly when he came in the company was struggling mightily, and he thought he could use the direct sales as a quick money grab. I don't believe he realized just how beneficial it would actually turn out to be

Disneywar, pg 96.: "Operating income at Disney jumped from less than $300 million when Eisner and Wells took the helm to nearly $800 million in 1987. An internal analysis commissioned by (CFO) Gary Wilson to help understand the company's burgeoning profit found that nearly all of it came from just three sources: raising admission prices at the theme parks; greatly expanding the number of company-owned hotels; and distributing the animated classics on home video."

Also, the home video sales was the idea of a Katzenberg lieutenant named Bill Mechanic. Everyone opposed it - Eisner, Katzenberg, Wilson, Roy Edward, Frank Wells. But after the first two movie videos (Pinocchio and Sleeping Beauty) made a fortune, all opposition to home video collapsed. This was happening alongside the wider discussion about the future of Disney animation. Roy Edward fought mightily to keep it, saying it was "the soul of the company." Eisner & Co. said it was too expensive any more. But the home video success helped convince Eisner there was money to be made in animation.

So you were correct, Eisner wasn't the driving force of the home video strategy, but he at least had the good sense to seize the opportunity once it became evident.

 

[DeeBee3]

Good point above about subscribers - we got it when the amazing deal came out before Disney+ went live. Honestly, not sure I will continue paying at the higher price. I'm going to weigh my options and figure out how much we actually use the service.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Good point above about subscribers - we got it when the amazing deal came out before Disney+ went live. Honestly, not sure I will continue paying at the higher price. I'm going to weigh my options and figure out how much we actually use the service.

I think that’s a good way to value analyze, but for the majority I think they will let their promo laps, and be stuck paying for it

 

[BrianL]

I think that’s a good way to value analyze, but for the majority I think they will let their promo laps, and be stuck paying for it

I mena, I use D+ all the time, so for me, it's a no brainer. It's still the best deal in streaming. I have greatly enjoyed not having to worry about it though and would sign up for another 3 years, even at a higher price, in a second.

 

[RivShore]

Disneywar, pg 96.: "Operating income at Disney jumped from less than $300 million when Eisner and Wells took the helm to nearly $800 million in 1987. An internal analysis commissioned by (CFO) Gary Wilson to help understand the company's burgeoning profit found that nearly all of it came from just three sources: raising admission prices at the theme parks; greatly expanding the number of company-owned hotels; and distributing the animated classics on home video."

Also, the home video sales was the idea of a Katzenberg lieutenant named Bill Mechanic. Everyone opposed it - Eisner, Katzenberg, Wilson, Roy Edward, Frank Wells. But after the first two movie videos (Pinocchio and Sleeping Beauty) made a fortune, all opposition to home video collapsed. This was happening alongside the wider discussion about the future of Disney animation. Roy Edward fought mightily to keep it, saying it was "the soul of the company." Eisner & Co. said it was too expensive any more. But the home video success helped convince Eisner there was money to be made in animation.

So you were correct, Eisner wasn't the driving force of the home video strategy, but he at least had the good sense to seize the opportunity once it became evident.

Great piece of history, Thanks!!

 

[Jrb1979]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/disney-content-spend-profit-streaming-1235145367/

Sounds like they are going to go with less Marvel and less Star Wars and more C list shows.

 

[RivShore]

I posted the original article about this so I thought the followup opinion piece deserved a post. It is refreshing that a right leaning paper is finally saying "enough" with the abuse of powers in service of the culture wars...

https://nypost.com/2022/05/12/josh-hawleys-feckless-bid-to-slap-disney-is-a-blatant-abuse-of-power/

 

[RivShore]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/disney-content-spend-profit-streaming-1235145367/

Sounds like they are going to go with less Marvel and less Star Wars and more C list shows.

That article seems to be much ado about nothing much - they trimmed content spend by 1/33rd, that is barely more than a rounding error. And that cost trim was due to slower ramp up of spending during the first part of the year, probably due to Covid.

On the shows, I read it that, as a percentage of new content, more will be C list shows mainly because they are ramping up local productions not because they are slowing down the big franchise shows.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/disney-content-spend-profit-streaming-1235145367/

Sounds like they are going to go with less Marvel and less Star Wars and more C list shows.

i think that is a good maneuver, if they keep pushing SW, and Marvel, they are going to burn out both franchises

 

[bryaalre]

I mena, I use D+ all the time, so for me, it's a no brainer. It's still the best deal in streaming. I have greatly enjoyed not having to worry about it though and would sign up for another 3 years, even at a higher price, in a second.

I feel the same way. I use Disney+ for 3 main reasons; I like the new marvel and Star Wars shows, the back catalog of movies and shows and new movies when they’re added.

Movie tickets in my area are $15 a ticket. So, getting a new big movie added, practically monthly, is value for me alone.

As a customer I don’t want to see my 3 year promo end and pay higher but as a shareholder, I would like to see the ARPU be much higher than the $6.32 reported this past quarter for domestic subscribers.

 

[BrianL]

I feel the same way. I use Disney+ for 3 main reasons; I like the new marvel and Star Wars shows, the back catalog of movies and shows and new movies when they’re added.

Movie tickets in my area are $15 a ticket. So, getting a new big movie added, practically monthly, is value for me alone.

As a customer I don’t want to see my 3 year promo end and pay higher but as a shareholder, I would like to see the ARPU be much higher than the $6.32 reported this past quarter for domestic subscribers.

Actually, they're probably gonna get me to bundle in Hulu. I haven't wanted to do it becasue of my deal, but once I'm paying regular price, I may as well get in on it, what with new Futuramas and all.

 

[wabbott]

In digging through my Disney history library, from Kim Masters' Keys to the Kingdom: The Rise of Michael Eisner and the fall of Everyone Else, this New York Times interview was referenced:

https://www.nytimes.com/1984/10/17/movies/disney-hopes-eisner-can-wake-sleeping-beauty.html

''You could finance a new Disney World by the unused value of our film and television library,'' he said. ''There are 250 episodes of The Wonderful World of Disney and 400 Mickey Mouse cartoons that have never been syndicated."

Part of what he means by the word ''culturally'' is that until Walt Disney Productions was nearly ripped apart this year by two separate takeover threats from financiers, the company was tied psychologically to its founder, who died in 1966.

Mr. Eisner said his first priority was ''to bring peace to Disney'' and that corporate peace had been accomplished with 25 percent of the company's stock in the hands of the Bass brothers, Texas real-estate magnates whose land company was folded into Disney as a defense against a takeover.

 

[OKW Lover]

''You could finance a new Disney World by the unused value of our film and television library,'' he said. ''There are 250 episodes of The Wonderful World of Disney and 400 Mickey Mouse cartoons that have never been syndicated."

I would so love to see those!!!

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

I would so love to see those!!!

Me too! I think a good start would be to add House of Mouse to Disney+, i'd love to introduce my daughter to some of the older animations, and i feel like that show is a great vessel to hold her attention