Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[Pyotr]

Things will get better as time passes. Maybe not tomorrow, next month. 6 months, or a year, but life will get back to normal and we will forget about this mess.

I have a quick trip with my wife scheduled in May. I would love a few more signature restaurants open, specifically Flying Fish.

 

[IceSkatingPrincess]

Just got caught up on the last few pages....

It feels like this summer in here

Super excited for the extended Valentine's day hours though. I'll be there the 12th-17th and this is a lovely change from my trips last summer/fall!

 

[rpb718]

Disney should be able to make mask optional by this summer. The government says anyone that wants a vaccine will be able to get one by this summer. When that happens it it up to each person to take responsibility for their health and not rely on anyone else to wear a mask to protect them.

I love these posts that really think 100+ million doses of vaccine as well as the number of people able to administer said doses will miraculously show up all at once when they open up the vaccine to everyone. I expect by summer, everyone who want to get the vaccine will be able to try to get at least one appointment sometime during the later half of 2021. Most should be able to get both appointments for their follow-up shot.

 

[Karin1984]

Disneyland Paris just announced two events for 2021 are cancelled already: Disneyland Paris Pride (Gay days, but then organized by Disney, 12 June) and Electroland (series of concerts after hours, 2-4 July)

 

[rockpiece]

I think DHS is only running one side of Tower right now. Up to an 80 minute posted wait and the most I saw all of last week was 50 and it’s a freaking Monday.

 

[xuxa777]

I love these posts that really think 100+ million doses of vaccine as well as the number of people able to administer said doses will miraculously show up all at once when they open up the vaccine to everyone. I expect by summer, everyone who want to get the vaccine will be able to try to get at least one appointment sometime during the later half of 2021. Most should be able to get both appointments for their follow-up shot.

We are already a third of the way there with the rate of vaccinations only increasing. We will hit 100+ million by April 1st even at the current rate.

 

[Runnsally]

We are already a third of the way there with the rate of vaccinations only increasing. We will hit 100+ million by April 1st even at the current rate.

I think we’re only about a tenth, but I appreciate the optimism.

 

[jlwhitney]

We are already a third of the way there with the rate of vaccinations only increasing. We will hit 100+ million by April 1st even at the current rate.

I agree each week we are getting more and more efficient with the vaccines. I think we will end up with by summer more slots available then people that want them unless they start getting people convinced they should get it with solid goals of restrictions easing and such.

 

[Brianstl]

We are already a third of the way there with the rate of vaccinations only increasing. We will hit 100+ million by April 1st even at the current rate.

We are at 30+ million doses administered not at 30+million vaccinated. The dose count includes those administered as the second shot of the vaccine, we are around 25 million people that have received at least one dose and 5.6 million that have been completely vaccinated.

 

[xuxa777]

I think we’re only about a tenth, but I appreciate the optimism.

OP was discussing doses
The U.S. has administered 31.8 million doses, over 30% of the 100 million. Not optimistic, more realistic.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

 

[TwoMisfits]

OP was discussing doses
The U.S. has administered 31.8 million doses, over 30% of the 100 million. Not optimistic, more realistic.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

The only problem is that you need 200M doses with the current vaccines to inoculate 100M people...and the J&J vaccine put out bad news today that they will NOT have nearly as many doses as they thought for spring, so we're stuck in a mostly 2 doses paradigm for awhile...slowing things down some...

That said, spring and sun will help spread and severity (outdoors always being better than indoors and strong spring sun buffing folks immune system and burning virus out of the air) before folks might go for summer AC, so we could still do okay...

 

[Runnsally]

The only problem is that you need 200M doses with the current vaccines to inoculate 100M people...and the J&J vaccine put out bad news today that they will NOT have nearly as many doses as they thought for spring, so we're stuck in a mostly 2 doses paradigm for awhile...slowing things down some...

That said, spring and sun will help spread and severity (outdoors always being better than indoors and strong spring sun buffing folks immune system and burning virus out of the air) before folks might go for summer AC, so we could still do okay...

you had me until the buffing part

 

[xuxa777]

The only problem is that you need 200M doses with the current vaccines to inoculate 100M people...and the J&J vaccine put out bad news today that they will NOT have nearly as many doses as they thought for spring, so we're stuck in a mostly 2 doses paradigm for awhile...slowing things down some...

That said, spring and sun will help spread and severity (outdoors always being better than indoors and strong spring sun buffing folks immune system and burning virus out of the air) before folks might go for summer AC, so we could still do okay...

Sure, but that is not what OP was saying. Regardless the US will most likely hit 100M fully vaccinated two doses by April if not sooner. About 500,000 doses average per day were administered around two weeks ago, we have doubled that rate as of today and will double that in a few weeks. The biggest hold up will be people wanting to get vaccinated at that point.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Sure, but that is not what OP was saying. Regardless the US will most likely hit 100M fully vaccinated two doses by April if not sooner. About 500,000 doses average per day were administered around two weeks ago, we have doubled that rate as of today and will double that in a few weeks. The biggest hold up will be people wanting to get vaccinated at that point.

Maybe depend where one lives but I am definitely not as positive - we have only been able to dose about 1/3rd of the people in my county that are eligible for phase 1 and no idea when more dosage is coming. Maybe things will change but from what I have seen of the rollout it makes me more pessimistic about timing of getting enough people vaccinated

 

[Farro]

Maybe depend where one lives but I am definitely not as positive - we have only been able to dose about 1/3rd of the people in my county that are eligible for phase 1 and no idea when more dosage is coming. Maybe things will change but from what I have seen of the rollout it makes me more pessimistic about timing of getting enough people vaccinated

I think come spring we will be in a much better position as far as getting the vaccine out. Do I think enough for easing restrictions in summer? Unfortunately no, but I do think we are still on track for fall getting some normalcy! (everywhere, not just Disney)

As everyone keeps saying, we just need to be patient. (says the girl who keeps looking out the window in Chicago and yelling about where is the snow plow!!! )

 

[mom2rtk]

Maybe depend where one lives but I am definitely not as positive - we have only been able to dose about 1/3rd of the people in my county that are eligible for phase 1 and no idea when more dosage is coming. Maybe things will change but from what I have seen of the rollout it makes me more pessimistic about timing of getting enough people vaccinated

Same here. My 87 and 80 year old parents still haven't even had an opportunity to sign up for an appointment. Through today, our county has only been doing onsite health care workers, first responders, long term care etc. We haven't moved to any general public yet. Neither the very old nor the very sick. So we haven't really even started. No idea how long it's going to take once it does get going.

 

[TwoMisfits]

you had me until the buffing part

Oh c'mon, Vitamin D plays a big role in your immune system - the sun is the best place to get it, and if this year goes like last year, everyone will be out getting it at outdoor dining and parks...til its too hot, and they rehide in AC...https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3166406/

 

[helloconnie]

OP was discussing doses
The U.S. has administered 31.8 million doses, over 30% of the 100 million. Not optimistic, more realistic.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

I am tracking this myself. As of Saturday, January 23, we had administered approximately 20,500,000 doses.
As of yesterday, that number has increased to 31,123,299. That is a HUGE jump in one week and averages OVER 1.5 million per day. Seems to me the new administration is already making a difference with their COVID vaccination plan. And don't forget, 38 states are now using the National Guard to help administer the shots.

The math makes it very possible for the 60% of Americans who said they will get vaccinated to have their first shots by the end of April. (as long as the supply chain from Pfizer and Moderna hold)

Adults of 18 in US = 209,128,094
60% who said they would get vaccinated = 125,476,856
Doses administered as of 1/31 = 31,123,299 (with 49,933,250 being distributed)
If vaccinations happen at goal rate of 1,500,000 per day (150,0000,000 in first 100 days) = approximately 92,000,000 vaccinated with 2 shots by April 30
If vaccinations happen at rate of 2 million per day = approximately 114,000,000 vaccinated with 2 shots by April 30

These are all without the J&J vaccine. J&J is behind in production. They pledged 12 million doses by the end of February and up to 100 million by the end of June, in their contract. Now they are saying they will deliver 60 million by the end of April.

So by the end of May, you could have 152 million - 174 million adults vaccinated.

The 174 million is 83% of all adult Americans but the big question is what about the 39-40% that have said they would not get the vaccine? You can't force them to get it but I would think that there will be a big Public Service Campaign to convince them to get the shot. I am betting that in the end, about 33% of adults will refuse the vaccine. That would mean 67% would get it. That number would be approximately 140,116,000 people. So if J&J delivers at least 30 million vaccines by the beginning of April, we will get the 67% vaccinated by the end of April.

If I was Disney, I would be making plans to return to somewhat normal operations by mid-May, but would not announce anything until the beginning of April sometime when we should know it these numbers will become reality.

 

[TwoMisfits]

I am tracking this myself. As of Saturday, January 23, we had administered approximately 20,500,000 doses.
As of yesterday, that number has increased to 31,123,299. That is a HUGE jump in one week and averages OVER 1.5 million per day. Seems to me the new administration is already making a difference with their COVID vaccination plan. And don't forget, 38 states are now using the National Guard to help administer the shots.

The math makes it very possible for the 60% of Americans who said they will get vaccinated to have their first shots by the end of April. (as long as the supply chain from Pfizer and Moderna hold)

Adults of 18 in US = 209,128,094
60% who said they would get vaccinated = 125,476,856
Doses administered as of 1/31 = 31,123,299 (with 49,933,250 being distributed)
If vaccinations happen at goal rate of 1,500,000 per day (150,0000,000 in first 100 days) = approximately 92,000,000 vaccinated with 2 shots by April 30
If vaccinations happen at rate of 2 million per day = approximately 114,000,000 vaccinated with 2 shots by April 30

These are all without the J&J vaccine. J&J is behind in production. They pledged 12 million doses by the end of February and up to 100 million by the end of June, in their contract. Now they are saying they will deliver 60 million by the end of April.

So by the end of May, you could have 152 million - 174 million adults vaccinated.

The 174 million is 83% of all adult Americans but the big question is what about the 39-40% that have said they would not get the vaccine? You can't force them to get it but I would think that there will be a big Public Service Campaign to convince them to get the shot. I am betting that in the end, about 33% of adults will refuse the vaccine. That would mean 67% would get it. That number would be approximately 140,116,000 people. So if J&J delivers at least 30 million vaccines by the beginning of April, we will get the 67% vaccinated by the end of April.

If I was Disney, I would be making plans to return to somewhat normal operations by mid-May, but would not announce anything until the beginning of April sometime when we should know it these numbers will become reality.

Some of that was states getting their admin in gear...VA had an amazing week, and it wasn't b/c they gave more doses than the last weeks, but that they finally recorded those doses when hiccups were found...

Not sure if that also plagued other states, but you may not see growth in numbers for Feb that you saw in Jan...especially since no new vaccine supply is really coming online with the J&J news...

PS - I've said elsewhere I see July as the goal month for normalcy - an Independence Day of sorts...so I'm not that unoptimistic, just cognizant of some of the hiccups that will likely plague rollouts (heck, even snow in the NE is gonna play a role this week)...

 

[mattpeto]

I've been the optimistic one, but the variants and their possible resistance to the vaccines have me very concerned right now. It goes way beyond my hopeful Disney trip in December. If the pandemic is still around (and we have to wear masks and it still feels like a partial Disney experience) the trip will get bumped.

Best case scenario: the vaccine distribution ramps up and the pandemic basically comes to an end in the summer time or fall time.

Worst case scenario: The variants pose too resistant to the vaccines and even worse, can cause reinfection. This would mean we are years away from normalcy.

Often cases, most of what you think is probably down the middle somewhere. For me it's about being honest with myself, I just know all scenarios could end up happening.