Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[gottalovepluto]

So basically all they did was rename old Annual Passholders to Legacy Passholders. All of the other discounts, they already announced a few weeks ago. It really brings up more questions than answers, and everyone on the AP FB page are all pretty confused over it.

Not even that much. It’s basically a discount card now so ex-APs will keep coming to DtD/DCA buying merch and food.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

So basically all they did was rename old Annual Passholders to Legacy Passholders. All of the other discounts, they already announced a few weeks ago. It really brings up more questions than answers, and everyone on the AP FB page are all pretty confused over it.

I think what it does is "lock in" these discounts for people no matter what (or any) "Membership" they buy in the future. So if they pick a pass that comes with 10% discount on merch, they still will get 30% going forward anyway due to this legacy pass, whereas new passholders would just get the 10%

 

[Brianstl]

Did anyone notice the UBS analysis yesterday of Disney. They believe that the Parks are going to explode (attendance wise) in 2022 due to pent up demand. The sooner they can safely bring things back, the sooner people will return.

That isn't exactly what the analyst said. He expects the parks to return to their historical averages of attendance in 2022.

What has been overlooked in his statement that should scare pass holders was this part, "higher margins long-term given operational improvements implemented during the pandemic." This is a Wall Street analyst loving Disney ditching the AP program at Disneyland. This will only encourage Disney to massively change the AP program at WDW when they are ready to roll something out to the general public again.

 

[Brianstl]

I think what it does is "lock in" these discounts for people no matter what (or any) "Membership" they buy in the future. So if they pick a pass that comes with 10% discount on merch, they still will get 30% going forward anyway due to this legacy pass, whereas new passholders would just get the 10%

Not really, it clearly states that the discounts are only for a limited time until new membership offerings are announced.

 

[jessiegirl1982]

Not even that much. It’s basically a discount card now so ex-APs will keep coming to DtD/DCA buying merch and food.

Yeah, but only for the next 3 weeks and M-TH only so super convenient for those like me in the SFV!

I think what it does is "lock in" these discounts for people no matter what (or any) "Membership" they buy in the future. So if they pick a pass that comes with 10% discount on merch, they still will get 30% going forward anyway due to this legacy pass, whereas new passholders would just get the 10%

That would be amazing, but I won't hold my breath! It sounds more just like a marketing ploy that essentially holds no value.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Not really, it clearly states that the discounts are only for a limited time until new membership offerings are announced.

oh whoops, I misread that - yeah, then this is pretty minimal if it doesn't carry forward

 

[AvidDisReader]

It's not as simple of an equation as many might guess actually. It's not just about how many Guests are coming but about what Guests are coming. Right now, the "typical" Disney Guests (flying from out of state and staying for 6-nights/7 days) just aren't coming. Most of the Guests in the parks (especially now) are AP holders, locals, some drive-market Guests, and some DVC members. As a result, hotel occupancy at non-DVC resorts is just not up to where it needs to be, which is why you see hotels like YC and GF not opening select restaurants. There are brief periods of exception (like the week after Christmas) but WDW is not built to be a weekends and holidays destination. Even during those weekends and holidays, the parks aren't consistently selling out. One would expect -- at 35% capacity -- that every day in between Christmas and the New Year would've been sold out at all parks, but the reality was that maybe only two of those days were sold out across all the parks.

WDW just has too much infrastructure to be relatively empty most weekdays, so I'd argue that once they see more Guests staying in the resorts consistently (they aren't going to throw open the doors to tons of new shops and restaurants for one week only), you'll start to see more offerings. More resort Guests mean more Guests coming for out of town, which means longer stays (which, by definition, encompass weekdays).

So yes, capacity is a factor but first they need to be consistently meeting current capacity with Guests who are staying in their hotels. I think they'll be in a much better place in that regard by late spring or early summer. I'd also be stunned if they haven't raised capacity by the start of summer.

It has already been speculated that just before Christmas capacity was increased to 40%, there were several comments on this in this forum a whole bunch of pages ago. The Quarterly phone call early next month we should know for sure.

 

[andyman8]

It has already been speculated that just before Christmas capacity was increased to 40%, there were several comments on this in this forum a whole bunch of pages ago. The Quarterly phone call early next month we should know for sure.

Whether all the parks were full at 35% or 40% during the two days within that period that park passes were sold out is really beside the point. As I’ve said previously, they’re not hitting their cap most days, and right now, they’re not even coming close. To see more offerings come back, that’s going to be the primary metric, not necessarily maximum “capacity.”

Also, as someone who was there during the holiday, I don’t agree with that speculation.

 

[TXAKDisneyFan]

Can you give your point in a nutshell? I can't figure out what you are advocating for.

If the vaccines are shown to prevent transmission, then anyone who can get one should.

There was talk of vaccine hesitancy esp re: kids a couple pages ago. First, re: the assertion that not many people will get their kids vaccinated, or at least as part of a trial: that's not true. Per my prior post, the 12-15 study where I'm at is full.

Second, there's a whole lot of talk about if and when things will normalize at wdw. I don't see how masks, distancing, etc, go away without as many ppl getting vaccinated as possible.

 

[mamapenguin]

Not even that much. It’s basically a discount card now so ex-APs will keep coming to DtD/DCA buying merch and food.

And what about all of the out of state Legacy Passholders? The DTD discount is worthless because we can’t get there.

 

[Brianstl]

Well, well. I think we found the DME replacement.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...up-to-develop-hubs-across-florida/ar-BB1d9VYy

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Well, well. I think we found the DME replacement.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...up-to-develop-hubs-across-florida/ar-BB1d9VYy

can it land right at the front of MK or will we still have to go through the TTC?

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

WDW just has too much infrastructure to be relatively empty most weekdays, so I'd argue that once they see more Guests staying in the resorts consistently (

They’re never going to get the capacity at their very expensive resorts back up if they don’t bring back perks like 60 day fastpasses.

 

[MickeyWaffles]

They’re never going to get the capacity at their very expensive resorts back up if they don’t bring back perks like 60 day fastpasses.

I actually think it will be harder for them to fill the mods and values due to not having the 60 day FP kind of perk. I may be wrong but I don’t think 60 day FP was necessarily a make or break selling point for people booking deluxe, but I think it did definitely help people choose a Disney value or mod over an off site option.

I think people will continue to pay the deluxe prices for prime location/convenience to a park & amenities. Resorts on the skyliner will probably be ok since that is a convenience selling point now.

But I really think the no 60 day FP will impact how full the values/mods are more than the deluxes though.

 

[Sarahslay]

That isn't exactly what the analyst said. He expects the parks to return to their historical averages of attendance in 2022.

What has been overlooked in his statement that should scare pass holders was this part, "higher margins long-term given operational improvements implemented during the pandemic." This is a Wall Street analyst loving Disney ditching the AP program at Disneyland. This will only encourage Disney to massively change the AP program at WDW when they are ready to roll something out to the general public again.

I really don't think this is something that should scare anyone, the analyst likely has no inside information that most other investors don't have. The scenario we have is that Disney has cut costs by trimming out entertainment, jobs, and other offerings that cost the company money but don't return anything. Just because DL does something it does not automatically mean that WDW is gonna go "You know what, that's a good idea", especially since they have different AP markets/structure than DL, it's not a cookie cutter scenario.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I actually think it will be harder for them to fill the mods and values due to not having the 60 day FP kind of perk. I may be wrong but I don’t think 60 day FP was necessarily a make or break selling point for people booking deluxe, but I think it did definitely help people choose a Disney value or mod over an off site option.

I think people will continue to pay the deluxe prices for prime location/convenience to a park & amenities. Resorts on the skyliner will probably be ok since that is a convenience selling point now.

But I really think the no 60 day FP will impact how full the values/mods are more than the deluxes though.

That is how I see it as well - even from comments from some people here. If you are staying deluxe, yeah those perks were nice, but it was more about the amenities at the resort and the quality of them and the location of them relative to the parks (e.g., walk to EPCOT)

whereas for the mods and especially the values (which there are a ton of rooms when full open) if you are on a smaller budget, deciding to pay the extra to stay on property vs off, those perks weigh more as otherwise the location and resort amenities aren't that different than staying at many off property places

 

[hertamaniac]

Well, well. I think we found the DME replacement.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...up-to-develop-hubs-across-florida/ar-BB1d9VYy

Battery powered jet engines? I can envision Tesla fast charging stations now for your jet.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I really don't think this is something that should scare anyone, the analyst likely has no inside information that most other investors don't have. The scenario we have is that Disney has cut costs by trimming out entertainment, jobs, and other offerings that cost the company money but don't return anything. Just because DL does something it does not automatically mean that WDW is gonna go "You know what, that's a good idea", especially since they have different AP markets/structure than DL, it's not a cookie cutter scenario.

I am sure they will look at what DLR does and if it is successful potentially learn from that and perhaps incorporate some elements of it - but I woudl be surprised if they just brought over what DLR does exactly - the customer base (e.g., what % is currently passholders) is very different

 

[Sarahslay]

That is how I see it as well - even from comments from some people here. If you are staying deluxe, yeah those perks were nice, but it was more about the amenities at the resort and the quality of them and the location of them relative to the parks (e.g., walk to EPCOT)

whereas for the mods and especially the values (which there are a ton of rooms when full open) if you are on a smaller budget, deciding to pay the extra to stay on property vs off, those perks weigh more as otherwise the location and resort amenities aren't that different than staying at many off property places

especially considering that many good neighbor hotels, that are sometimes the same or less as a value (and certainly a mod in most cases, unless you're lookin at four seasons), get the same "perks" as onsite resorts. If I were on a tight budget at this point I would say "You know what, I think it's time to check out some other options", and really consider an offisite villa or hotel. They are going to have to step it up in that budget category big time IMO.

 

[Sarahslay]

I am sure they will look at what DLR does and if it is successful potentially learn from that and perhaps incorporate some elements of it - but I woudl be surprised if they just brought over what DLR does exactly - the customer base (e.g., what % is currently passholders) is very different

Right, I could totally see them taking what works and changing some stuff, but as far as passholders needing to be "scared" I don't think anything scary is going to happen. Might prices go up? Absolutely, especially since they always do.