Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[Mit88]

$20 is too high a price point for streaming.
That plus piracy, free streaming once it's officially unleashed on the internet and it's not a good platform for a big budget movie.

$20 is the price point of every recent straight to VOD rental. Invisible Man, Scoob ($25 to purchase day of release), Trolls, and will be the price of Bill and Ted on Sept 1st. But yes, its too high for the consumer, especially ones that know it will be available to pirate soon after. IIRC Trolls 2 did like $20M In rentals its first weekend, which is good, but thats a family movie. Most families with children don’t know, or don’t want to bother with pirating a movie and risk getting caught. The audience for movies like Mulan, New Mutants, Tenant, Black Widow are all savvy enough to find ways to watch the movie without paying.

It’s not as easy as dropping the movie to VOD and wallah, we’re making billions of dollars. Unfortunately thats not how it works in real life, which is why the theater’s are so important

 

[gottalovepluto]

Presumably it will maybe be like when all the ADRs were removed. Delete all those affected and email everyone saying they need to do it all again.

Sounds about right TBH

 

[Mit88]

well, Disneyland still isn't open ....

And I’m sure there will be some that take credit for their “I told you so” if its Disneyland that doesn’t open until November.

“Oh, you thought I meant WDW? No, no, I knew they were going to open on July 11th from the day they closed. It was Disneyland that I was talking about”

 

[mattpeto]

They’d need to make $800,000,000 on VOD in order to just break even. Very, very, very slim chance Mulan comes to VOD. There are also contracts in place that these movies need to meet a theatrical window in order to drop on VOD/Streaming. Hence why New Mutants continues to try and release in theaters

"Mulan cost $200 million to produce, meaning under normal circumstances it'd need to earn at least $400 million worldwide to make its money back. But if Mulan is pushed back further, Disney would likely have to invest even more money into Mulan promotion"

https://screenrant.com/tenet-mulan-release-date-delayed-cost-marketing-budget/
They probably would get at least 100M back, but maybe waiting a couple of years is worth to them for a potential big payout. The theater business is very fragile now.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I know the idea of "are the parks making money" with the low attendance - at lease execs on the Universal side are saying they are doing "much better financially than if they were closed" (might just be spin of course)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1288821365605388289

 

[gottalovepluto]

The insiders on the other boards said Sept/Oct timeline for implementing whatever they decide.

The “insiders”

 

[Tjddis]

It will. People probably said the same thing after 9/11

I don’t know. 9/11 was a very different situation. The need at that time was to get everything back to full normal ASAP in order to show the world we were not going to be cowed. This time that approach would appear to be counter productive in terms of the virus spread.
So way back when (it seems so long ago) when everyone was speculating on an opening date I threw out the idea that they would be better off long term staying closed at least for the summer and looking at a late fall/early winter reopen depending on virus situation. some of my reasons were centered around if the climate would keep people away to the point where it would not be an economic win to open. Also the negative perception it could inflict on the brand. I am very happy that nothing as been traced back to date to WDW and hope that continues. But wondering if they would have been better off. I know the economy is a paramount concern as well, but if it never recovers to its full extent wouldnt that be more damaging than the relatively short term loss of this summer? Not a question to you specifically Eric, just wondering what the board thinks and using your comparison as a jumping off point...

 

[Mit88]

"Mulan cost $200 million to produce, meaning under normal circumstances it'd need to earn at least $400 million worldwide to make its money back. But if Mulan is pushed back further, Disney would likely have to invest even more money into Mulan promotion"

https://screenrant.com/tenet-mulan-release-date-delayed-cost-marketing-budget/
They probably would get at least 100M back, but maybe waiting a couple of years is worth to them for a potential big payout. The theater business is very fragile now.

Again, this is if they release IN theaters. VOD is a much different animal. Movie Theaters don’t get the film reels from these studios for free. Theaters make most of their money on concessions.

Let’s say you rent Mulan and you’re with 4 of your family members

$20 for 5 people to watch a movie at home

Average cost of a movie ticket was $9.11 in 2019 (and thats generous)

$9 x 5 people = $45.

They’re making less than half the money for a family Of 5 to watch a movie at home than they would in a theater. The money adds up

That’s assuming everyone that watches the movie at home is actually paying for it.

 

[WorldOfPooh]

Again, this is if they release IN theaters. VOD is a much different animal. Movie Theaters don’t get the film reels from these studios for free. Theaters make most of their money on concessions.

Let’s say you rent Mulan and you’re with 4 of your family members

$20 for 5 people to watch a movie at home

Average cost of a movie ticket was $9.11 in 2019 (and thats generous)

$9 x 5 people = $45.

They’re making less than half the money for a family Of 5 to watch a movie at home than they would in a theater. The money adds up

That’s assuming everyone that watches the movie at home is actually paying for it.

Not only that but the majority of the profits from movie theaters come from concessions. 1 cent soda syrup being sold for $7. 10 cent popcorn for $9. And those profits trickle down to the studios from the theaters through rentals.

 

[Mlchiranky]

This is a totally random thought... but with the cancellation of Halloween parties and the likely cancellation of Christmas parties... any thoughts/rumors on decor at the parks?

I watched the Decorating Disney: Holiday Magic documentary last night on Disney+... and I couldn’t help but wonder if these employees were furloughed. A lot of staff begin working on decor for the holidays long before Q4.

I’ll admit, selfish wondering over here... I have a trip planned in Dec and I’m hoping for at least a bit of Xmas magic

 

[gottalovepluto]

On my work social virtual drinking session last week with my immediate team of 10, someone asked if anyone had plans to go anywhere. Nope, not one person had plans to go anywhere right now even in our own country (UK).

Yeah but- UK. Most everyone I know is taking close local trips for vacay this summer in the US. We’d have gone if Disneyland was open but since they aren’t beach it was.

 

[Farro]

This is a totally random thought... but with the cancellation of Halloween parties and the likely cancellation of Christmas parties... any thoughts/rumors on decor at the parks?

I watched the Decorating Disney: Holiday Magic documentary last night on Disney+... and I couldn’t help but wonder if these employees were furloughed. A lot of staff begin working on decor for the holidays long before Q4.

I’ll admit, selfish wondering over here... I have a trip planned in Dec and I’m hoping for at least a bit of Xmas magic

I can't imagine why they wouldn't decorate. That would be silly.

I'm sure you'll get Disney Christmas Magic!

 

[Tjddis]

This is all consistent with what we heard early in the pandemic that if the Disney Parks didn't open by August that the Disney Corp (ESPN, Parks, Movies) would go bankrupt.

Those who keep wishing for the parks to be closed, well you may have nothing to come back to if you get your wish.

I don’t really think anyone was wishing for the parks to be closed. There were those that had some issues with how they handled communications during the shutdown, and those who questioned the wisdom, timing and approach to reopening when they did.

 

[Mit88]

Not only that but the majority of the profits from movie theaters come from concessions. 1 cent soda syrup being sold for $7. 10 cent popcorn for $9. And those profits trickle down to the studios from the theaters through rentals.

If you want to see a movie in an IMAX or specialty theater, you’re looking at spending close to $60 between just 2 people between tickets, popcorn, and drink. Unless you have A-List or another movie club card, but those will likely go away if/when movie theaters open back up. If you think Disney is hurting and upset about not making money from the parks, ask them how they feel about having to put Onward on Disney+ after only 2 weeks in theaters. Somethings like Hamilton and Artemis Fowl are much better off on that platform to bring in subscribers than a blockbuster like Mulan or Black Widow, or Soul.

 

[anthony2k7]

They also have a history of being wrong.

Err no, andyman8 doesn't as far as I recall.

 

[MrsBooch]

I can't imagine why they wouldn't decorate. That would be silly.

I'm sure you'll get Disney Christmas Magic!

I'm assuming as well that they will decorate for the holidays - I'm also hoping.

We are planning on being at Wilderness Lodge during the Thanksgiving holidays, the tree is usually up in the lobby by then sooo fingers crossed.

 

[Mlchiranky]

I can't imagine why they wouldn't decorate. That would be silly.

I'm sure you'll get Disney Christmas Magic!

I hope so too!!

 

[gottalovepluto]

I don't see Disney doing anything drastic.

Disney built the new reservation system to control the crowd levels. While it's possible that the demand is way below expectations, I'd still be pretty shocked if they uprooted a system they just put in to deal with the 2nd worst-case scenario.

Scaling back the resort openings is the next logical step. I also expect some packages for the locals to entice them to come back to the parks or stay at the resorts.

Universal looks like freaking geniuses for not implementing a park reservation system and for allowing park hopping.

 

[MickeyWaffles]

My favorite still so far on this board that I've seen is Disney won't open til November at the earliest

I mean, there were a lot of wrong people on both sides of it ... I recall someone on here connected to an “insider” who was adamant they had rock solid intel that the parks were to open May 19 or something ridiculous.

 

[anthony2k7]

well, Disneyland still isn't open ....

Or the waterparks at wdw