Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[Skippyboo]

The Mouse got $1100 bucks from me today. Had a week booked starting April 19. Booked it early last year. Booked May 21-26 last week as a back up for April. My FastPass day was today for May trip. Couldn’t see calendar past April. Cancelled April trip and all FPs (probably going to have to do it anyways). Still can’t do May FP. Call passholder hotline. Reason for FP problem is AP expires April 29. So they hooked me up with a temporary fix so I could book the FP for my trip dates. So I did my FPs and then renewed AP. Don’t know if I get the shutdown time added to end of new AP.

 

[mshanson3121]

I keep going back and forth on whether my June 18 trip is going to be ok. Any thoughts?

Highly unlikely. And if for some reason it is opened, more likely it'll still be resorts only, or minimal stuff in the parks.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

Every company is having cash flow issues at the moment. Hence the layoffs and spike in unemployment. Noone could've prepared for a circumstance such as this. Unless you are in healthcare, grocery, or fuel, there is a ripple effect that is destroying the national and global economies. This is staggering damage to everyone. It is going to take a long while to dig out of it. Disney will be ok long term but I dont think anyone comes out of this unscathed and neither individual or companies finances or makeup prior to this will be the same afterwards. Just have to all pull together and get through it.

At this point, I think all travel, leisure, and entertainment companies worldwide are in danger of bankruptcy and collapse. Disney is not immune to this.

 

[Mattimation]

At this point, I think all travel, leisure, and entertainment companies worldwide are in danger of bankruptcy and collapse. Disney is not immune to this.

I think Disney is diversified enough that they’ll be safer than similar, smaller companies - home entertainment like Disney+, Hulu, and digital downloads of other movies/shows will probably do incredibly well over these next few months. Of course not well enough to make up for all the losses, but Disney isn’t entirely helpless right now. I think before we see a bankruptcy we’d see them selling off some of their subsidiaries, or at least try to. Of course, if this really does last as long as some people speculate, pretty much every company is doomed. At this exact moment, I think Disney is relatively alright.

 

[Yarbogash]

At this point, I think all travel, leisure, and entertainment companies worldwide are in danger of bankruptcy and collapse. Disney is not immune to this.

Imho this is what people should be concerned about. Not if Disney is going to reopen on April 1. Disney was a cash poor company, carrying substantial debt that was committed to aggressive growth based on very high occupancy and earning estimates. As their corporate report from last week summarized, parks are closed, cruise ships not operating, film and tv production shut down, movie theatres are closed so new releases will go straight to digital, merchandising has been negatively impacted. They are lucky they got Disney+ going before this happened because it's going to be their only serious revenue stream for a while. If the closures extend beyond 3 or 4 months, Disney will end up needing a bailout, getting bought out or going bankrupt. Or a combo of those options.

https://deadline.com/2020/03/disney-risks-sec-debt-1202887541/

 

[Searc]

Especially after being locked in. If people have the means when this is over the first thing they’ll want to do is get out and enjoy life again.

A slight correction - no one is locked in their home.

 

[Chuckdlc]

Of course, if this really does last as long as some people speculate, pretty much every company is doomed. At this exact moment, I think Disney is relatively alright.

And that's the part that makes me believe we will see a point where the government chooses the economy over the continued struggle to keep cases at a minimum. I do not think the July 15 tax extension was simply a matter of adding 90 days. They wouldn't want taxes to be due right when people are returning to work. I think they have decided that there is a finite period of time during which the fight against the spread outweighs the need to preserve the financial stability of the population.

 

[Yarbogash]

Imho this is what people should be concerned about. Not if Disney is going to reopen on April 1. Disney was a cash poor company, carrying substantial debt that was committed to aggressive growth based on very high occupancy and earning estimates. As their corporate report from last week summarized, parks are closed, cruise ships not operating, film and tv production shut down, movie theatres are closed so new releases will go straight to digital, merchandising has been negatively impacted. They are lucky they got Disney+ going before this happened because it's going to be their only serious revenue stream for a while. If the closures extend beyond 3 or 4 months, Disney will end up needing a bailout, getting bought out or going bankrupt. Or a combo of those options.

https://deadline.com/2020/03/disney-risks-sec-debt-1202887541/

And I forgot to mention Disney owns 80% of Espn and broadcasts sports are over for now. Disney is basically invested heavily in everything that is taking the heaviest economic hit from the pandemic.

 

[rteetz]

A slight correction - no one is locked in their home.

You know what I mean...

 

[rteetz]

News

https://blogmickey.com/2020/03/disney-delays-cast-member-scheduling-for-april-1st-and-beyond

 

[Brianstl]

Between the low price and the the number of free subscriptions, Disney is generating much revenue through Disney+. Disney+ was a long term play that sacrificed initial revenue for rapid market penetration.

 

[Searc]

You know what I mean...

Yes, I do, but some will take you literally. Precise words matter, especially right now.

 

[rteetz]

Yes, I do, but some will take you literally. Precise words matter, especially right now.

This is a Disney discussion board. One shouldn’t be coming here for their news and information regarding what’s happening in their hometown or for scientific information regarding the virus. Let’s continue to focus on Disney and theme park operations in this thread.

 

[usrtyz]

I keep going back and forth on whether my June 18 trip is going to be ok. Any thoughts?

That’s when we are supposed to go too.

 

[TomServo27]

And I forgot to mention Disney owns 80% of Espn and broadcasts sports are over for now. Disney is basically invested heavily in everything that is taking the heaviest economic hit from the pandemic.

ESPN from what I’ve read should save hundreds of millions in rights fees. So while they are gonna lose a lot in advertising revenue that at least is mitigated by rights fees they don’t have to pay. Also they will still be getting subscription fees from cable but I’m sure there will be more cord cutting going on.

 

[Krandor]

I'm wondering why Disney doesn't release their upcoming movies onto D+ for a fee. I mean, we were going to spend $40 at the movie theatre seeing it. So, why not release Mulan on time, and charge $9.99 to see it? We'd gladly pay it!

$40 > $9.95. They'll wait and get the $40.

 

[mshanson3121]

$40 > $9.95. They'll wait and get the $40.

I'm sure they would prefer packed theatres, but it's pretty naive of them to think that people are going to flock to the theatres once they re-open, or that they'll even be allowed to have a full crowd. My guess is theatres will need to continue social distancing measures for awhile and probably run at half capacity. And I was just throwing that number out there. Honestly, we'd probably pay more than that. I would think some income during these months of shut down would be better than none. We're only talking a couple movies for the next few months. They'll have others down the road.

 

[Brianstl]

$40 > $9.95. They'll wait and get the $40.

That $40 is actually $20 after the theater gets their cut. The longer this goes on, the more they will need to find ways to generate revenue from the products they have put on the shelf, even at a lower than expected rate.

 

[VWLforever]

$40 > $9.95. They'll wait and get the $40.

Your math is off. Traditionally the studio that created the film gets 55% of ticket prices, whereas the theater gets 45%. So if Disney were to release a film direct to Disney+ and charge $22, they'd break even per each family of 4 who otherwise would've gone to the movie theater and paid $10 per individual. They would be ahead on smaller families, and behind on larger ones.

Now of course such an approach screws the theaters. But if the mass quarantines last for any prolonged period, I fully expect direct to streaming release to become commonplace. It could in fact be the death knell for the public cinema industry, even after COVID subsides.

 

[Miffy]

You have to wonder if Disney is putting off extending the closure to the last possible moment because they’re having cash flow issues and can’t afford to issue all the refunds right now. It wouldn’t be surprising.

I agree. Not only that, but they make money on the float, assuming there is a float.