*note, I mean this is a dialogue but please don't take this personally, I think we both love WDW, I have nothing against you and I am not out to get you in anyway, I am out to make sure people are getting as unbiased and straightforward information as they can*
Of course you didn't title your thread "WE" don't need to book FPs in advance, or "Conclusion: I wont be prebooking FP+" it was "No need to prebook FPs" straight forward. Which really begs the question here, are you trying to help people figure out the system, how best to plan their trips, or are you trying to win a point about whether FP+ is great or terrible ? Whether Disney can do any wrong or not ? Not trying to make this personal in anyway, but I have yet to see you agree with a single post about the potential negative outcomes of FP+. Lots of people who don't like FP+ glad admit some of the benefits, as I myself have.
YOU have found availability, and for every time YOU have posted availability, others have posted they found NO availability.
So in fact, people have said exactly what we predicted, they waited beyond their 60 days and were unable to get what they wanted.
Also its an exaggeration on your part to say people argued "nothing" would be available, that seems mathematically impossible, you'd have to have enough people prebooking to take the entire capacity of FPs for the day, but the base of the point still is, people waiting beyond the 60 day mark have been shut out from what they wanted.
Your "Debunking" Debunked !
And indeed lots of reports of just that, people only finding scraps when booking at 30 days. LOTS of posts about it.
Your "Debunking" Debunked !
Glad you have been able to get things done at RD, that still seems to be the best way to go. Yet, we are also getting reports of SB times escalating much faster first thing in the morning. Showing up to some of the headliners with immediately posted wait times of 30 and 45 mins. Reports from people getting in line at RD when the SB wait time has said 10 mins and waiting 20 and 30 mins.
Your "Debunking" Debunked !
You don't start with a clean slate. Period. People have been booking for 60 days. You MAY be able to get what you want, but ironically even some the undoubtedly slanted photos you have posted indicate that the times available for rides are not those of a clean slate.
Your "Debunking" Debunked !
I know its really hard for you to acknowledge the dozens of posts of other people whose experience doesn't match yours, and no one is denying what you have experienced. But again, just because you experienced it doesn't mean others do. We have again, I don't know how many times this needs to be repeated, dozens, of posts of people even some in this thread, about doing last minute trips and finding nothing but scraps.
Your "Debunking" Debunked !
Read basically every response here again, really. No one has said you "can't" get FP+ without a computer, they have said you are at the mercy of the kiosk and whats available after others have been booking for 60 days ... and that's entirely true. Again, lots of posts about people not being able to get stuff.
Your "Debunking" Debunked !
I'm just going to post the same thing again, since you basically did.
Read basically every response here again, really. No one has said you "can't" get FP+ without a computer, they have said you are at the mercy of the kiosk and whats available after others have been booking for 60 days ... and that's entirely true. Again, lots of posts about people not being able to get stuff.
Your "Debunking" Debunked !
Funny because one of the pieces of advice posted repeatedly here on the boards for people unable to get what they want is just to book it for one person at a time, and try to overlap the times ... I think I have even see you support this advice ...
Your "Debunking" Debunked !
Ah and then we get to the crux of it, your mileage my vary, in fact we know it WILL vary. Except you don't tell people this, or at least other than in this post you don't. Instead we see "look no lines at the kiosk", when someone says you should book asap you say "Nah, we got what we wanted last minute" and time someone posts something negative about their experience, you try to come up with a counter example, even though you know that the capacity just isn't ther efor everyone to have you experience. Its mathematically impossible. Yet rather than recognize this, people choose to continue to prop up the idea that everything will be super smooth with FP+ and no one will be shut out of the FPs they want and everyone can get all the FPs they want.
Of course, you aren't the only one guilty of a offering a purely one sided account, of things, and all experiences are valid. Its good to know its -possible- to get things last minute, its also good to know you might get shut out at day 59 and 23 hours. But a rebuttal to rebuttal to rebuttal to rebuttal to rebuttal just doesn't seem productive in the grand scheme of things. I get the passion for WDW, lord knows I have it, but seriously can we be a little more objective in posts ?
The glowing experiences of last minute FP+ availability, and day of availability, have been "Debunked" as something people can rely on to plan their trips around countless times on these boards.
But that doesn't mean they aren't possible to experience, they just shouldn't be things we are telling people to plan their trip around and their likely hood is inversely related to the crowd levels and the utilization of FP+.