CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Pyotr]

My DD is convinced it’s because people are getting tested less. She gave examples of people she knows who tested positive and then others in the household came down with it but did not test because they figure that’s what it is. But I’m pretty sure that was already happening and I can’t see it accounting for such a huge drop. I think she’s afraid to get her hopes up that we could possibly be turning the corner. I know I get that way, it’s kind of hard not to sometimes.

Testing did decrease, just not at the same rate as cases. Hospitalizations have been falling like a rock but they are still too high.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1361111880748597251

 

[jlwhitney]

Hospitalizations countinue to fall which is one of the biggest markers. Doesn’t really matter if people are testing less or pcr changed
Threshold as much as seeing hospitalizations to continue to decline.

 

[Jonfw2]

So, the media, because I dunno it’s evil I guess, has started in with the “OMG! Vaccinated people are still getting Covid!” headlines.

Yes. A very small number of vaccinated people will get Covid. But it will be WAAAAAY less than if we weren’t getting vaxxed. Oh- and they won’t need to be hospitalized and they definitely won’t die.

There is your headline, media.

 

[anniemae]

I am getting increasingly concerned about the SA and UK variants spreading. They were talking about it on the news this morning and it is concerning. They were not sure the vaccine works against the SA one. It seems every time I get hopeful, I get knocked down again.

 

[amylevan]

So, the media, because I dunno it’s evil I guess, has started in with the “OMG! Vaccinated people are still getting Covid!” headlines.

Yes. A very small number of vaccinated people will get Covid. But it will be WAAAAAY less than if we weren’t getting vaxxed. Oh- and they won’t need to be hospitalized and they definitely won’t die.

There is your headline, media.

I was watching national news last night, it was probably NBC but im not positive, and the vaccine report actually annoyed me. Nothing they said was factually incorrect but it wasn’t really the full story either. They were emphasizing you could still get COVID after vaccinated (no mentioning that it’s rare and likely non-severe), that you will still spread it (this is a possibility, but not proven yes or not yet). They were talking about life after vaccination and whether grandparents could finally hug their grandkids, and that didn’t even get a yes answer. Still no socializing and reservations about in person dining and the gym. Basically, you’re vaccinated and nothing really changes for you. Now I’m not saying that you should rip your mask off and immediately host a raging party, but for gods sake, hug your grandkids. Go out to dinner (especially if restrictions still have capacity low).

My husband who hasn’t really been keeping up with this stuff turned and looked at me and asked why on earth he should bother with the vaccine. Great. That’s just the kind of news we need. Let’s convince people the vaccine isn’t going to change anything so that we never come close to getting enough to get it. I was frustrated.

 

[huskies90]

Lots of health departments aren't reporting daily this weekend due to the holiday.

That is why we look at the 7 day moving average.

Hospitalizations countinue to fall which is one of the biggest markers. Doesn’t really matter if people are testing less or pcr changed
Threshold as much as seeing hospitalizations to continue to decline.

Agreed. Hospitalization trend is the best measure.

 

[Sixerr]

Nice content.

 

[Jonfw2]

Annie, my best advice on that is look at Israel. Their numbers have plummeted for ages 60 and above. Covid will soon not exist for them. That’s where we are headed here.

 

[DopeyDame]

My DD is convinced it’s because people are getting tested less. She gave examples of people she knows who tested positive and then others in the household came down with it but did not test because they figure that’s what it is. But I’m pretty sure that was already happening and I can’t see it accounting for such a huge drop. I think she’s afraid to get her hopes up that we could possibly be turning the corner. I know I get that way, it’s kind of hard not to sometimes.

If that were the case you'd see a rise (or at least not a drop) in the percentage positive. Since both case rate and percentage positive are dropping, you can have a good feeling that the drop is real.

I think it's a combination of things -
Certainly it's a huge fall from the holiday bump. (Laws may not have changed significantly, but the number of people travelling in November and December was staggering compared to the previous 8 months. It was risky behavior and we all paid the price.) Also, as people saw the huge bump in January, at least around me, people started laying low again. People seem to be taking precautions more seriously again compared to the late summer/fall.
I'm sure some of it is part of the natural rise and fall of a virus, too.
Finally, of course, vaccines! they're getting out there, and getting (mostly) to the most vulberable.

It's like the perfect storm of good news, for a change. Let's just hope we keep heading in the right direction!

 

[huskies90]

I didn't see the headline about vaccinated people getting Covid but when I went to the CCN Covid updates page, I saw these two contradicting headlines right on the same page. Take what you read in the media with a dose of common sense...

It's not vaccinations that have been driving down Covid-19 cases in the US, one expert says

More than 38 million Americans have so far received at least their first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine -- but it's not the vaccinations that have driven Covid-19 numbers down across the US, one expert told CNN on Sunday. "It's what we're doing right: staying apart, wearing masks, not traveling, not mixing with others indoors," said Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

4 million people flew in the US over the weekend, despite warnings from health officials

This weekend has been one of the busiest for pandemic air travel in more than a month.

 

[Jonfw2]

I didn't see the headline about vaccinated people getting Covid but when I went to the CCN Covid updates page, I saw these two contradicting headlines right on the same page. Take what you read in the media with a dose of common sense...

It's not vaccinations that have been driving down Covid-19 cases in the US, one expert says

More than 38 million Americans have so far received at least their first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine -- but it's not the vaccinations that have driven Covid-19 numbers down across the US, one expert told CNN on Sunday. "It's what we're doing right: staying apart, wearing masks, not traveling, not mixing with others indoors," said Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

4 million people flew in the US over the weekend, despite warnings from health officials

This weekend has been one of the busiest for pandemic air travel in more than a month.

That would be funny if it weren’t so sad.

 

[Pyotr]

I am getting increasingly concerned about the SA and UK variants spreading. They were talking about it on the news this morning and it is concerning. They were not sure the vaccine works against the SA one. It seems every time I get hopeful, I get knocked down again.

Israel primarily has the UK strain and Pfizer’s vaccine is working well there.

J&J’s vaccine was tested in South Africa and it 100% prevented hospitalizations and deaths after 28 days.

Don’t let the news get you down.

 

[Ariel484]

I don’t even blame the government. I blame the citizens. Way too many people here don’t like being told what to do so they don’t do it.

The weird thing for me is supporters of the former president being so anti-vax. They usually follow him like disciples but on this one thing, they diverge???

Did he ever encourage people to actually get the vaccine? I know his aides wanted him to get it on-camera to instill public confidence in it, but he never actually did, right? His M.O. the entire time was not to fear the virus (even after he himself had it) so I think that's the message his supporters took from him.

 

[erin1715]

I just wanted to say I check this thread many times throughout the day to keep my spirits up. So thank you all for sharing the good news!

 

[Colleen27]

My DD is convinced it’s because people are getting tested less. She gave examples of people she knows who tested positive and then others in the household came down with it but did not test because they figure that’s what it is. But I’m pretty sure that was already happening and I can’t see it accounting for such a huge drop. I think she’s afraid to get her hopes up that we could possibly be turning the corner. I know I get that way, it’s kind of hard not to sometimes.

That has been happening all along, though, and early on when tests were hard to come by was even being encouraged. There has been some decline in testing, probably because there's somewhat less demand for it when the virus is less prevalent in an area and people are therefore less concerned about exposure, but the positivity rate is falling as well. That points to a genuine decline in cases, because if people simply aren't seeking out testing unless they're symptomatic or seeking medical care, the number of tests run would be lower but the percentage of them coming back positive would be higher. When both measures - cases and positivity rate - decline together, that's genuinely good news.

I was watching national news last night, it was probably NBC but im not positive, and the vaccine report actually annoyed me. Nothing they said was factually incorrect but it wasn’t really the full story either. They were emphasizing you could still get COVID after vaccinated (no mentioning that it’s rare and likely non-severe), that you will still spread it (this is a possibility, but not proven yes or not yet). They were talking about life after vaccination and whether grandparents could finally hug their grandkids, and that didn’t even get a yes answer. Still no socializing and reservations about in person dining and the gym. Basically, you’re vaccinated and nothing really changes for you. Now I’m not saying that you should rip your mask off and immediately host a raging party, but for gods sake, hug your grandkids. Go out to dinner (especially if restrictions still have capacity low).

My husband who hasn’t really been keeping up with this stuff turned and looked at me and asked why on earth he should bother with the vaccine. Great. That’s just the kind of news we need. Let’s convince people the vaccine isn’t going to change anything so that we never come close to getting enough to get it. I was frustrated.

My husband has had the same reaction to the coverage. It feels like in the effort to discourage people from prematurely abandoning precautions, the media and the experts on the media circuit are taking a position that is basically designed to squash all hope whatsoever. And I think that's a serious mistake. Not only does fear-based motivation lose some of its effectiveness over time (so-called pandemic fatigue), presenting a situation as hopeless is not the way to get human beings to make good choices with the long view in mind. It seems likely to discourage vaccine uptake - because really, what's the point if it changes nothing? - and, paradoxically, make people less cooperative with masking and distancing and other mitigation efforts because they're more likely to start thinking in terms of "new normal" rather than the last months of a short-term collective effort to control spread.

If that were the case you'd see a rise (or at least not a drop) in the percentage positive. Since both case rate and percentage positive are dropping, you can have a good feeling that the drop is real.

I think it's a combination of things -
Certainly it's a huge fall from the holiday bump. (Laws may not have changed significantly, but the number of people travelling in November and December was staggering compared to the previous 8 months. It was risky behavior and we all paid the price.) Also, as people saw the huge bump in January, at least around me, people started laying low again. People seem to be taking precautions more seriously again compared to the late summer/fall.
I'm sure some of it is part of the natural rise and fall of a virus, too.
Finally, of course, vaccines! they're getting out there, and getting (mostly) to the most vulberable.

It's like the perfect storm of good news, for a change. Let's just hope we keep heading in the right direction!

I'm still not all that sold on the pivotal effect of the holidays. At best, it appears to be a regional effect and I generally don't think there's that much difference in how people as a group behave from place to place. I think the natural seasonality of a virus and of virus-vulnerable behavioral changes (like staying indoors for everything) has had a much bigger impact.

My state peaked in mid November. I know quite a few people who cancelled or scaled down Thanksgiving, but also quite a few who didn't. Almost no one cancelled Christmas. Every mass at our parish was full (to the capacity limit currently in place, which is far from the usual standing-room-only). But we didn't get the "surge on top of a surge" that all the experts were predicting. In fact, other than a sharp dip over the few days around Christmas (that coincides with a sharp short-term drop in the number of tests done) and rebound when testing levels went back to normal the next week, the trend has been consistently downward since just before Thanksgiving.

And as far as travel goes, TSA volume numbers show air travel is still significantly reduced from normal but Jan & Feb (so far) are showing much busier than any month from Apr through Oct. October brought the first million-passenger day of the pandemic; February has had 3 so far and we're only halfway through the month. On whole, people just aren't hunkering down the way they were early on in the pandemic.

 

[Jonfw2]

Colleen is bringing it lately!

 

[Jonfw2]

It was noted the other day that this being a holiday weekend is skewing our numbers lower. Very fair point. But with that in mind, let's take a look at MLK day which was exactly a month of Mondays ago: we had over 150,000 cases in the US. Today, we should be lower than 60,000.

 

[Farro]

As far as holiday surges, all I can say is Illinois never had a holiday surge - from Thanksgiving or Christmas.

I also expect our testing and vaccinations to be way down in Chicago area for a while, we are getting HAMMERED with snow/cold. On top of all the snow we've gotten already. Yuck.

 

[Jonfw2]

As far as holiday surges, all I can say is Illinois never had a holiday surge - from Thanksgiving or Christmas.

I also expect our testing and vaccinations to be way down in Chicago area for a while, we are getting HAMMERED with snow/cold. On top of all the snow we've gotten already. Yuck.

But also less people going out and being in contact with potential contagion.

 

[anniemae]

Someone mentioned on another thread that it is school vacation week for many schools. I know many are planning travel this week and next. Hope everyone stays safe. I was wondering why there were reports all over fb about how crowded Disney is right now.