CDC bans cruises in U.S. waters until October citing ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks on ships

[SolitaryPhoenix]

Cruise lines are definitely delaying the cancellation process to maintain sufficient liquidity. Several cruise line analysts have pointed this out. However, the 125% FCC will eventually hurt the bottom line. Cruising is looking at a 2 year recovery before getting back to normal. That is based on current predictions. Key word: “current”. DCL is losing almost an entire year at this point, now they are looking at giving just as many discounts for 2021 and 2022. On top of that, they may have to reduce future cruise prices due to a lack of demand. If they do that, will those who already rescheduled try to reschedule again for an even cheaper fair? Regardless, availability is tight due to the increased purchasing power of those with cancelled cruises. We had our first cruise scheduled for this year and had booked concierge. There is no incentive to use FCC because comparable rooms aren’t available. I think DCL will have to find new incentives and that is the hold up. We saw the same with WDW. Hard to make things right with customers with no end in sight. But for now, I think they should cancel prior to PIF in order to minimize the 125%. Although, I have also read that fewer people are taking the incentive due to lack of communication and increased in uncertainty. It’s an interesting cost/benefit analysis.

My family and I have decided to take a refund and reschedule late 2021/early 2022 because of the uncertainty. Unfortunately we'll lose out on the incentive, but I don't want to get caught up in the re-schedule/cancel/re-schedule/cancel roundabout. Our cruise is scheduled for October 2nd, so of course we're pretty reconciled at this time that it's going to be cancelled, but we have 2 concierge rooms, and won't get our fairly large (over $2k) deposit back unless Disney cancels, or we would've already.

 

[T & R]

but we have 2 concierge rooms, and won't get our fairly large (over $2k) deposit back unless Disney cancels, or we

As concierge for Oct 2, I believe you would lose a lot more than just your deposit if you cancelled now.

 

[SolitaryPhoenix]

We've been PIF for some time, well before the time we needed to be, and we were still hoping to cruise a couple months ago, weren't even thinking of cancelling. Up until fairly recently the plan has always been we weren't not going unless Disney cancelled.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

People keep saying "when the vaccine is ready everything will be safe." (Shorthand, but it's essentially what is being said - "in spring if there is a vaccine we can all sail" is what is coming out here.)

I think people are skipping over the next hard part of the process, which is vaccine production and distribution. We're all used to being able to walk in for our tetanus booster. But a new vaccine doesn't have immediate universal availability. The polio vax, as an example, took about 4 years to really get to most people.

I know some people have faith in modern production and distribution. But I think it's misplaced, particularly in the US where vaccines are being developed on a high-profit model. I think the best case scenario is 18-24 months to fully roll out a vaccine, and that assumes it is a vax more like measles/polio. If it's more like flu, and requires an annual administration, it becomes markedly more complex and drawn out.

And that's not even getting into those who won't get the vaccine.

Even if DCL is sailing in the spring, it will be on a heavily modified model, and that model will be in place a while.

 

[JM23457]

People keep saying "when the vaccine is ready everything will be safe." (Shorthand, but it's essentially what is being said - "in spring if there is a vaccine we can all sail" is what is coming out here.)

I think people are skipping over the next hard part of the process, which is vaccine production and distribution. We're all used to being able to walk in for our tetanus booster. But a new vaccine doesn't have immediate universal availability. The polio vax, as an example, took about 4 years to really get to most people.

I know some people have faith in modern production and distribution. But I think it's misplaced, particularly in the US where vaccines are being developed on a high-profit model. I think the best case scenario is 18-24 months to fully roll out a vaccine, and that assumes it is a vax more like measles/polio. If it's more like flu, and requires an annual administration, it becomes markedly more complex and drawn out.

And that's not even getting into those who won't get the vaccine.

Even if DCL is sailing in the spring, it will be on a heavily modified model, and that model will be in place a while.

Not to mention the issue of whether the vaccine is very effective or not, or if it has side effects.

 

[Snowwhyt]

People keep saying "when the vaccine is ready everything will be safe." (Shorthand, but it's essentially what is being said - "in spring if there is a vaccine we can all sail" is what is coming out here.)

I think people are skipping over the next hard part of the process, which is vaccine production and distribution. We're all used to being able to walk in for our tetanus booster. But a new vaccine doesn't have immediate universal availability. The polio vax, as an example, took about 4 years to really get to most people.

I know some people have faith in modern production and distribution. But I think it's misplaced, particularly in the US where vaccines are being developed on a high-profit model. I think the best case scenario is 18-24 months to fully roll out a vaccine, and that assumes it is a vax more like measles/polio. If it's more like flu, and requires an annual administration, it becomes markedly more complex and drawn out.

And that's not even getting into those who won't get the vaccine.

Even if DCL is sailing in the spring, it will be on a heavily modified model, and that model will be in place a while.

Previously there was a pandemic preparedness group in the White House. They actually made a book to address the issues that you’ve addressed above. Currently they’re working on getting enough vials made in the US. The over 100 contenders for a vaccine had been narrowed down to seven and two Of those are extremely promising. What they cannot tell is the length of time the vaccine works. So far it appears to be six weeks and counting.
The government has put out a plan to handle possible problems.
https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/06/16/fact-sheet-explaining-operation-warp-speed.htmlCould something go wrong, probably, will it stop the process, no, but might slow it down.
So this is the hope the “vax-ers “ have. And it is possible?? Well ABC & CBS made it sound possible in October until the vials were a concern. But only that as a hiccup because both vaccines are working so far. So now the new date is “late 2020”
But then the essential workers get the dose first, with I’m guessing “at risk” to follow. General public 2021.

So I understand why several people see the vaccine as useless for years since nobody knew we had a team of government people a few years ago to handle the problem. That is the way it was.
Sorry for poor grammar it’s never been my thing.

 

[CamColt]

Hey Gang! Let's remember to keep this thread on topic as pertaining to DCL. This isn't the place to get into speculation on a vaccine. If you want to discuss that, or anything else in general, we have the Community Board for that. Thanks for your cooperation!

 

[Snowwhyt]

Just like the delays coming up for the Wish. Same thing happens for a Vaccine. But both will be affected by months not years.
I wonder if the delays in listing new sailings has to do with when the Wish will have her actual sailings. I’m willing to put down a deposit for additional sailings if my January or May sailings don’t happen. By willing I mean I just got more gift cards from Sams club.

 

[gotomu212]

No, I don't think they just started the planning process, either. The process I mentioned is probably something they've been planning for quite a while. They won't necessarily do the fall cancellations until more fall cruises have reached PIF. DCL is in no hurry. I do think there is a good chance they will cancel all of fall in one blow after releasing 2021 itineraries. Maybe a week afterwards, to minimize the overwhelming of the phone lines. That would make DCL look careful & safe in not sailing until 2021 (positive publicity), while doing it in one blow would also avoid the number of times cancellation-related news about DCL appears (negative publicity).

A little bit of a spin off, but I do wonder if this situation eventually changes DCLs no risk reservations up to PIF (with the exception of concierge). I know we’ve jumped on new releases every year to take advantage of opening day prices and then backed out as our plans firmed up because the only cost is letting Disney hold a small amount. I know if deposits were non-refundable or only refundable as FCC, we wouldn’t make potential plans so far out. I’d guess there are a lot of people making tentative 2021 plans that really think “there’s little chance I go” and availability dries up.

 

[auntlynne]

It's killing me. I have to sit back for some time now and watch every cruise that I would like to re-book to fill up and the rooms I want gone while I wait for DCL to cancel my upcoming Dream cruise that they've known for months is not going to sail.

I would it is a lot harder for those booked in Concierge to wait this out. You can't just cancel like the rest of us - you would lose your deposit. I get it.

 

[auntlynne]

https://disneycruise.disney.go.com/guest-services/passport-travel-documentation/
Its stated multiple times on this page on DCL website,
It is your responsibility to ensure that you have all the proper documentation to board the ship and enter each of the countries on your cruise itinerary.

It is the cruiser's responsibility to get visas, passports... all only obtainable by an individual. But DCL should (and I would believe) notify those cruising whether citizens of certain countries - and I mean US and Canada, principally, would not be allowed into certain ports.

I don't believe there are any ports where DCL would port, if they did not allow North Americans to enter, that they would even visit.

And that may be what's holding up a lot of their decision making. At least that's what I am hoping.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

It is the cruiser's responsibility to get visas, passports... all only obtainable by an individual. But DCL should (and I would believe) notify those cruising whether citizens of certain countries - and I mean US and Canada, principally, would not be allowed into certain ports.

I don't believe there are any ports where DCL would port, if they did not allow North Americans to enter, that they would even visit.

And that may be what's holding up a lot of their decision making. At least that's what I am hoping.

Typically, a ship cannot sail with passengers that cannot debark the ship in any given port (for whatever reason). They would be denied boarding.

 

[The Sasquatch]

My family and I have decided to take a refund and reschedule late 2021/early 2022 because of the uncertainty. Unfortunately we'll lose out on the incentive, but I don't want to get caught up in the re-schedule/cancel/re-schedule/cancel roundabout. Our cruise is scheduled for October 2nd, so of course we're pretty reconciled at this time that it's going to be cancelled, but we have 2 concierge rooms, and won't get our fairly large (over $2k) deposit back unless Disney cancels, or we would've already.

Not sure I follow, I am on the same cruise in concierge. We can’t do anything now until Disney cancels so you would be offered the 125% to book your late 2021/early 2022

 

[Daisybell911]

Woke up this morning, hoping to see my cruise was officially cancelled but alas, no. I'd love to know what is going on behind the scenes. Last cancellation I dealt with, I had my email within 24 hours. Ugh!

 

[Giraffe Lounge]

So much for Castaway Cay-only cruises...

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/cor...0200720-mdw4dm24e5gwhj4ck3hltnmtpu-story.html

 

[randumb0]

So much for Castaway Cay-only cruises...

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/cor...0200720-mdw4dm24e5gwhj4ck3hltnmtpu-story.html

I was coming on to post the same thing. We have a looonngggg way to go

 

[Clojel]

Woke up this morning, hoping to see my cruise was officially cancelled but alas, no. I'd love to know what is going on behind the scenes. Last cancellation I dealt with, I had my email within 24 hours. Ugh!

I think the delay is almost certainly due to a debate on whether to just cancel the cruises directly effected by the CDC no sail OR cancelling the rest of 2020. I can’t imagine DCL wants to cancel a handful of cruises and then have to cancel the rest a month later. It sucks though, it would be way better to just KNOW for sure what the heck is happening so we can plan accordingly.

I’m on a Nov dream cruise and already PIF so I’m holding on to the slightest glimmer of hope that it goes....but at this point...seems REALLY unlikely!

 

[Daisybell911]

My reservation was finally deleted from the app and website. I guess we will hear word on something this morning. Sad it had to go but glad to get the refund.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

With the Bahamas closure, there is no end date. So DCL, betcha, cancels to the end of the CDC current guidance and drags their feet and wait.

Even though, seriously, the Bahamas are not going to take a ship sailing from Florida by October.

 

[JM23457]

So much for Castaway Cay-only cruises...

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/cor...0200720-mdw4dm24e5gwhj4ck3hltnmtpu-story.html

And even with this they're still selling October cruises...