Buyers remorse.. and lots of it.

[num]

as someone buying soon, its not an investment. if i ever rent points it’s to take a year off from disney. but if i go to disney, i get a really nice resort and not having to worry what room rates are that year. i’m lowering my total vacation cost for 47 years (bought resale because direct benefits don’t add up) with an initial lump purchase. i’m guaranteed a stay at one of 14 beautiful resorts with my family.

if you want to talk about investments in terms of rewarding experiences sure. but if this is worth double in 20 years that would be an accident and even less of a reason to sell because room rates will probably be on another planet

 

[havoc315]

as someone buying soon, its not an investment. if i ever rent points it’s to take a year off from disney. but if i go to disney, i get a really nice resort and not having to worry what room rates are that year. i’m lowering my total vacation cost for 47 years (bought resale because direct benefits don’t add up) with an initial lump purchase. i’m guaranteed a stay at one of 14 beautiful resorts with my family.

if you want to talk about investments in terms of rewarding experiences sure. but if this is worth double in 20 years that would be an accident and even less of a reason to sell because room rates will probably be on another planet

Very well said.

 

[AdamsMum]

I am also a little bit concerned about the ”disney selling DVC rumour” -

Remember that is a rumour. Anyone can start a post and make up their own rumour. I really don't see Disney dumping all these Deluxe resorts, which are right on their property to another timeshare company. Remember some of the units are owned by Disney and they rent them out at seriously inflated prices, and they can rent out villas that haven't been booked I think within 60 days. The membership pays all the costs of running the properties (except for the part of the points owned by Disney).
I think someone was just stirring the pot with that rumour. A lively discussion ensued. Don't let that be the reason you walk away. As for being the only Disney fan in your family, you might find it's a little more acceptable once your family stays at the Poly.
In the end, only you know your circumstances, I've had some times when money kept me awake at night during my life, and it isn't fun.
I'm also an international owner by the way and I've sold a contract in the past. After commission and FIRTPA tax (which is 15% now), I broke even after a few years of using the points. The selling process wasn't that complicated, I had to have the documents notarized which cost me $30 (canadian), my real estate lawyer did it for me. The only glitch I had was that I tried to sent through Canada Post which uses Fedex. As it turned out they never transferred my documents to FedEx. I ended up being a few days late with the paperwork because of that. When I retrieved my docs I sent overnight through FedEx for $40.

 

[RoseGold]

On the other hand, we can look at likely outcomes. An intelligent diversified investment portfolio should grow by 10-20x over 40 years. A 2060 DVC contract will with certainty be worthless in 40 years.

I only plan to hold 10 years, but sure, let's play.

I'd argue BC/BW actually went up in relative value as they aged, because of their superior locations and legacy charts. The same is definitely possible for BLT/VGF if DVC keeps pumping out mediocre location, locked down stuff with sky high points. There's something to be said for much cheaper buy in and just staying O14 or whatever home resort.

So, sell at year 20, and you did pretty well.

Obviously, this isn't an investment. But plenty of us own because we like math and we like to use it to our advantage. I've been an owner for almost four years. If I were to sell right now, I'd be up five figures, and that's all in: after paying all my dues/closing/commission for many stays in hotels I would never pay cash for -- I'm looking at you Poly! Heck, SSR has gone up so much, I am seriously looking at selling.

I’d argue buying resale isn’t much commitment at all. Everyone acts like this is a 40 year commitment, but it doesn’t have to be.

 

[havoc315]

I only plan to hold 10 years, but sure, let's play.

I'd argue BC/BW actually went up in relative value as they aged, because of their superior locations and legacy charts. The same is .

so, pretty easy calculation as we get to specifics.
Fortunately, you can find historical average resale prices.

we can look at resale prices 2017-2020:

https://www.fidelityrealestate.com/blog/long-term-value-of-disney-vacation-club-ownership/
BCV went from $98-132. But over that 4 year stretch, you would have paid about $28 in dues. For a total ROI of $4 per point.
Or basically, an annualized ROI of about 1%. But wait… you also paid closing costs and re-sale commission. So unfortunately, your ROI is negative. You lost money.

Still— you got 4 vacations at low cost….. maybe. Assuming you could have gotten an annualized ROI of 6-7% without DVC.. that $98 per point still would have gone up to $132 investment, without having paid the dues. After you factor in closing costs, resale commission…
So each trip ended up just costing you the dues, plus closing costs and re-sale commission. pretty good deal to pay about $13 per point per year for your trips. — slightly better than renting. And, if you held for 10 years instead of 4 years, you eventually get it down to about $8-10 per point per year. Pretty good deal.

So as an investment, awful. As a way to get a cheaper vacation, excellent if you hold it long enough.

Now, that is a time period where BCV was increasing annually in re-sale price. Eventually, it will unquestionably go in the opposite direction. Since we know it’s value is $0 in 2042, the prices will start declining prior to 2042. So for someone buying in 2025, the math will be quite different than someone buying in 2017. The upward price movement won’t continue forever… nobody is going to pay $250 per point for a contract with 5 years left.

 

[RoseGold]

Eventually, it will unquestionably go in the opposite direction.

These are all depreciating assets with hard expiration dates. Yet, somehow they are all going up in value and have been for decades. Even BC, with not much time left on the clock.

I think there’s a decent math argument to holding BC for a few years now, because even if it depreciates, it won’t be linearly. There’s a strong case to be made for 2042 starter contracts in 2032. Buying in for 10 years is a lot less commitment than slapping down a house down payment on Riviera 2.

DVC always has a benchmark of cash hotel rates, which show no sign of stopping. Compare that BC point cost to cash rates, and it's looking pretty good!

My objective was to stay at deluxe for the cost of AoA or less. Right now, I'm at gain, if I sold today. I plan to sell when I break even, because I can't stomach paying taxes on DVC increase haha. Points for the cost of dues is AWESOME to me!

 

[Sandisw]

These are all depreciating assets with hard expiration dates. Yet, somehow they are all going up in value and have been for decades. Even BC, with not much time left on the clock.

I think there’s a decent math argument to holding BC for a few years now, because even if it depreciates, it won’t be linearly. There’s a strong case to be made for 2042 starter contracts in 2032. Buying in for 10 years is a lot less commitment than slapping down a house down payment on Riviera 2.

DVC always has a benchmark of cash hotel rates, which show no sign of stopping. Compare that BC point cost to cash rates, and it's looking pretty good!

My objective was to stay at deluxe for the cost of AoA or less. Right now, I'm at gain, if I sold today. I plan to sell when I break even, because I can't stomach paying taxes on DVC increase haha. Points for the cost of dues is AWESOME to me!

Just to clarify, there have been time periods where the assets were down considerably. It’s how I got BWV in 2012 for $55/ point. So it’s not a sure thing.

IMO, most do not buy with a get out in 10 year plan like you did.

Moat buy for long term vacations and ownership. So, resale value could tank at anytime and I do think no one should go into a purchase with the idea that they need or want an increase to make it make sense.

The thread is about buyers remorse so In that sense, no one should ever go through with it if they feel that before even owning, no matter what numbers say. Too expensive and too big of a risk with that mindset.

 

[RoseGold]

Just to clarify, there have been time periods where the assets were down considerably. It’s how I got BWV in 2012 for $55/ point. So it’s not a sure thing.

IMO, most do not buy with a get out in 10 year plan like you did.

Moat buy for long term vacations and ownership. So, resale value could yank at anytime and I do think no one should go into a purchase with the idea that they need or want it increase to make it
Work.

The thread is about buyers remorse so I’m that sense, no one should ever go through with it if they feel that before even owning, no matter what numbers say. Too expensive and too big of a risk with that mindset.

Oh, I totally agree. Mathematically, most of the cost is actually dues, so we are arguing over the piece that doesn't even matter. We should care about the totally opaque dues, and things like the garbage website driving up our costs.

Of course, with that point of view, might as well just buy RIV!

When I bought, with loaded contracts, even if the price plummeted, I would still be happy with my value. I was ready to unload at a loss and be happy. That's the best you can do in a resale market that has no promises.

 

[peabody58]

I would think that people who have 2042 Resorts and want to keep their contracts till the end would do well to rent points out in the last few years, thus optimizing the remaining value. Unless of course they want to actually stay at the resorts and then wave WDW goodbye in 2043.

 

[havoc315]

I think there’s a decent math argument to holding BC for a few years now, because even if it depreciates, it won’t be linearly. There’s a strong case to be made for 2042 starter contracts in 2032. Buying in for 10 years is a lot less commitment than slapping down a house down payment on Riviera 2.

It definitely won’t be a good “investment” in 2032. It might be a great vacation savings, it might not. All depends on the pricing in 2032.

 

[havoc315]

I would think that people who have 2042 Resorts and want to keep their contracts till the end would do well to rent points out in the last few years, thus optimizing the remaining value. Unless of course they want to actually stay at the resorts and then wave WDW goodbye in 2043.

not to nitpick.. it’s actually January 2042 that it expires.

 

[upritbass]

if you want to talk about investments in terms of rewarding experiences sure. but if this is worth double in 20 years that would be an accident and even less of a reason to sell because room rates will probably be on another planet

Happy accidents do happen. VGC is worth 60% more after two years and room rates are in another solar system

 

[Leight19]

Actually, that’s how I ended up buying. My boomer dad likes dave Ramsey, he was sponsored by a company that “sold” timeshares for a while, so he talked about it a lot.

In one of the calls, he told someone to never buy a timeshare except maybe Disney. My dad was not amused when I used this loophole, and hates Disney. But he was impressed recently at how my DVC has gone up in value, haha.

I had to like this because I believe I watched this exact episode he had haha. I do agree that his purpose wasn’t to recommend doing as investment but just to say it’s the one timeshare you could argue is good to buy into as a vacation expense.

Regarding opportunity cost it definitely needs to be taken into account on doing any math for dvc value but at end of day this is all discussion for fun so results of analysis based on percent return assumed don’t have to be perfect. However for me, and I assume many others, the percent to assume is very straightforward because I have a home mortgage and dvc money could have gone to my home instead.

 

[Paul Stupin]

These are all depreciating assets with hard expiration dates. Yet, somehow they are all going up in value and have been for decades. Even BC, with not much time left on the clock.

I think there’s a decent math argument to holding BC for a few years now, because even if it depreciates, it won’t be linearly. There’s a strong case to be made for 2042 starter contracts in 2032. Buying in for 10 years is a lot less commitment than slapping down a house down payment on Riviera 2.

DVC always has a benchmark of cash hotel rates, which show no sign of stopping. Compare that BC point cost to cash rates, and it's looking pretty good!

My objective was to stay at deluxe for the cost of AoA or less. Right now, I'm at gain, if I sold today. I plan to sell when I break even, because I can't stomach paying taxes on DVC increase haha. Points for the cost of dues is AWESOME to me!

Its been a bit of a mystery to me why the ticking clock hasn’t affected some 2042 resorts’ ppp, but sooner or later I wonder if something’s gotta give. I’d bet Disney will offer an extension at some point in the 2030s.

 

[Wakey]

Well I would agree don’t buy DVC as an investment. Having said that, a contract I bought for $65 5 years ago is now selling for $120-130 so has outperformed that speculative 7%

 

[kboo]

Well I would agree don’t buy DVC as an investment. Having said that, a contract I bought for $65 5 years ago is now selling for $120-130 so has outperformed that speculative 7%

I found a free ROI investment calculator and did this on our contracts:

BLT: 9+%
VGF: 10+%
RIV: -4%

Of course this doesn't take into account maintenance, fees, inflation, etc. I was surprised re: Riviera since we bought direct, but we did so very early on.

 

[havoc315]

Well I would agree don’t buy DVC as an investment. Having said that, a contract I bought for $65 5 years ago is now selling for $120-130 so has outperformed that speculative 7%

But you've paid dues of about $35 over those 5 years... plus closing costs, divided over 5 years, probably still at least $2 per point. So, you paid $102 per point, so far, for points now selling for $120-$130. And if you resold now, you'd be looking at about an 8% commission and more closing costs. So maybe you'd clear $110 per point.
So paid $102, can "cash in" for about $110.
That's a very very poor return for 5 years.

Now, you got great value -- You basically got 5 years of vacations for very low cost. But that's very different than an "investment."

 

[havoc315]

I found a free ROI investment calculator and did this on our contracts:

BLT: 9+%
VGF: 10+%
RIV: -4%

Of course this doesn't take into account maintenance, fees, inflation, etc. I was surprised re: Riviera since we bought direct, but we did so very early on.

Not surprising.... Like a car, when you drive it off the lot, it immediately loses value. You bought direct, and re-sale prices are lower than direct prices.
But looking at the trends, looks like re-sale pricing should soon exceed the price paid by early buyers.

We got our points at $170 per point... Now seeing re-sale in the $150 to $160 range.

Maximum re-sale value is probably obtained 20-25 years into contract length. (prices may continue to rise afterwards, but at some point within the last 15-20 years, they will start to decline).

 

[wfjny]

We bought BLT direct back in 2009.

We are about 25% thru the "lifetime" of the resort. If we took a linear approach, it should be worth about 25% less.

Instead I could sell my points for about 50-60% more than what I paid. AFter using it for 12 years. And using the various perks that came along (mostly AP discounts, but probably a few others).

While I did not purchase it with the idea of it being an investment, it has turned out to not be too bad of an investment.

Now, if I had invested the money in Bitcoin instead of DVC, yeah, life would be very different. Instead of having DVC, I would probably have a home in Golden Oaks...

 

[hhisc16]

Its been a bit of a mystery to me why the ticking clock hasn’t affected some 2042 resorts’ ppp, but sooner or later I wonder if something’s gotta give. I’d bet Disney will offer an extension at some point in the 2030s.

I would buy an extension to my 2042 resort if offered then...