Buyers remorse.. and lots of it.

[havoc315]

We bought BLT direct back in 2009.

We are about 25% thru the "lifetime" of the resort. If we took a linear approach, it should be worth about 25% less.

But it's not linear because you have competing factors:
You have ordinary inflation PLUS Disney inflation (the increased demand for Disney that outpaces regular inflation), driving the price up. While you have the passage of years driving the value down.

So the first X number of years, the inflation surpasses the value lost in contract duration.
But at some point, the lack of remaining years will outpace the inflationary gains.

We know that the contract value will hit 0 on the contract expiration date -- 2060.
So at some point before 2060, you will see a decline. Just hard to measure exactly when that will be. No DVC contract has ever expired before. But we are now entering the final 20-year-window for several resorts. So we have the canary in the coal mine. My educated guess -- Those 2042 resorts won't see many more years of increasing value. By the mid 2020's, values will remain pretty flat. And by 2030, you'll start to see noticeable decline.

 

[Lorana]

But you've paid dues of about $35 over those 5 years... plus closing costs, divided over 5 years, probably still at least $2 per point. So, you paid $102 per point, so far, for points now selling for $120-$130. And if you resold now, you'd be looking at about an 8% commission and more closing costs. So maybe you'd clear $110 per point.
So paid $102, can "cash in" for about $110.
That's a very very poor return for 5 years.

Now, you got great value -- You basically got 5 years of vacations for very low cost. But that's very different than an "investment."

If you’re going to calculate this as what their return is, then you should be subtracting out the cost of their vacations for those five years, since if they had invested instead, they’d have had to pay out of pocket for those Disney vacations. Thus, the return is more than just the difference between what they paid ($102/point) and what they’ll get back if they sold now ($110/point) because they didn’t spend $xxxx per year on vacations.

 

[eMoneyBug]

OP, what are the stats on your purchase? Home Resort, # of points, cost per point, you plan on travelling once every 3 years or 2 or 1 ? or you really can't determine? Do you have children that are already Disney fans that you can leave some years to?

 

[havoc315]

If you’re going to calculate this as what their return is, then you should be subtracting out the cost of their vacations for those five years, since if they had invested instead, they’d have had to pay out of pocket for those Disney vacations. Thus, the return is more than just the difference between what they paid ($102/point) and what they’ll get back if they sold now ($110/point) because they didn’t spend $xxxx per year on vacations.

No, vacations are an entirely separate line item of discretionary spending. You don’t “subtract” the vacation cost, if you’re looking at it as a vacation. After all, it’s impossible to truly calculate the vacation value. WDW wants you to compare it to a full price cash room, but that’s not typically a true comparison.

If you’re not looking at it as an investment, then you can just calculate the total cost/gain, compared to having invested.

So for example — say after re-sale, you had a gain of $10 per point, after 5 vacations over 5 years.

Say you had invested instead, with no vacations —say hypothetically, you calculate your investment would have increased in value by $50 (per point)

So in total, 5 vacations cost you $40 per point under this scenario. Or about $8 per point per trip.

So it’s not an investment — but got 5 vacation stays on the cheap — paying about $8 per point per year!

 

[Lorana]

No, vacations are an entirely separate line item of discretionary spending. You don’t “subtract” the vacation cost, if you’re looking at it as a vacation. After all, it’s impossible to truly calculate the vacation value. WDW wants you to compare it to a full price cash room, but that’s not typically a true comparison.

You said they didn't get much return, because their buy-in cost was $102, but they would sell for $110. My point was only that if you were going to talk about the return they got from their DVC, you should absolutely include the value of the vacations they took over those five years. It's not just $8/point; it's $8/point + the cost of accommodations they didn't have to pay out of pocket for. That's their return on this "investment" (and, yes, I completely agree DVC isn't an investment, but if we're going to talk about the end value of DVC after selling and compare it to investing that money, you SHOULD consider the value of the vacations you didn't pay for as part of that comparison, IMHO). At the end of the day, sure, the only cash they'll have in their pocket is the $8/point... except that in the past five years, the money they would have spent on vacations could have been invested and had its on return, I guess is what I'm saying.

 

[havoc315]

You said they didn't get much return, because their buy-in cost was $102, but they would sell for $110. My point was only that if you were going to talk about the return they got from their DVC, you should absolutely include the value of the vacations they took over those five years. It's not just $8/point; it's $8/point + the cost of accommodations they didn't have to pay out of pocket for. That's their return on this "investment" (and, yes, I completely agree DVC isn't an investment, but if we're going to talk about the end value of DVC after selling and compare it to investing that money, you SHOULD consider the value of the vacations you didn't pay for as part of that comparison, IMHO). At the end of the day, sure, the only cash they'll have in their pocket is the $8/point... except that in the past five years, the money they would have spent on vacations could have been invested and had its on return, I guess is what I'm saying.

What’s the “value” of a night in a room if:
1. The rack rate is $600, with housekeeping
2. You can get it, without housekeeping, renting points through an agency for $450
3. You can get it, as cash, through a Disney special offer, with housekeeping, for $420
4. You can get it, renting points from a friend or forum, for $400, without housekeeping
5. you can get it through a secret Hotwire deal, with housekeeping, for $375
6. You can get it, through Disney, at rack rate of $600 with free dining for 5 Disney “adults”, with the free dining valued at $400… does that mean the it only cost $200?
7. if you didn’t own DVC, you would have stayed in a cheap off-site hotel for $150– then is $150 the actual value of your DVC, since it’s the replacement?

I’m not saying you shouldn’t look at the vacations you received. I’m just saying it’s almost impossible to actually calculate that as an investment or return.

Instead, you can just look at what you paid and determine if you got a good deal.
If you use a $1 coupon on a $5 McDonalds burger, you wouldn’t turn around and say, I got a 20% return on my McDonalds investment. You’d just say, I got the burger for $4. In fact, if everyone is using the coupon, then everyone is getting it for $4. So you didn’t exactly save, you just paid the same as almost everyone else.

So you can look at that DVC held for 5 years, and say “I feel I got an excellent value, my vacation stays ended up only costing me $180 per night.”
And you might find that was well worth the cost. Of course, it’s a similar cost to the tens of thousands of other DVC owners. Many of whom are very happy customers, who would agree that it ended up being well worth it.
And some might look back at regret, “it wasn’t worth it, having to book 11 months in advance was so aggravating. I ended up taking a couple trips that I wish I hadn’t taken, spending so much on tickets and airfare because I felt locked in. I wish I had never bought, I would have only taken the trips I really wanted to, I would have been able to plan last minute, and could have stayed in a fantastic off site location for less money”

So much of the value of DVC subjective. So all we can do is say, “I objectively paid $x, and subjectively it was well worth the price.”

 

[RoseGold]

I would buy an extension to my 2042 resort if offered then...

There’s no way IMO. OKW extension is still a cluster, it was a failure at the time. DVC doesn’t want the old charts around at all.

Theyll slap some paint on and resell before they extend anything.

 

[Lorana]

What’s the “value” of a night in a room if:
1. The rack rate is $600, with housekeeping
2. You can get it, without housekeeping, renting points through an agency for $450
3. You can get it, as cash, through a Disney special offer, with housekeeping, for $420
4. You can get it, renting points from a friend or forum, for $400, without housekeeping
5. you can get it through a secret Hotwire deal, with housekeeping, for $375
6. You can get it, through Disney, at rack rate of $600 with free dining for 5 Disney “adults”, with the free dining valued at $400… does that mean the it only cost $200?
7. if you didn’t own DVC, you would have stayed in a cheap off-site hotel for $150– then is $150 the actual value of your DVC, since it’s the replacement?

I’m not saying you shouldn’t look at the vacations you received. I’m just saying it’s almost impossible to actually calculate that as an investment or return.

Instead, you can just look at what you paid and determine if you got a good deal.
If you use a $1 coupon on a $5 McDonalds burger, you wouldn’t turn around and say, I got a 20% return on my McDonalds investment. You’d just say, I got the burger for $4. In fact, if everyone is using the coupon, then everyone is getting it for $4. So you didn’t exactly save, you just paid the same as almost everyone else.

So you can look at that DVC held for 5 years, and say “I feel I got an excellent value, my vacation stays ended up only costing me $180 per night.”
And you might find that was well worth the cost. Of course, it’s a similar cost to the tens of thousands of other DVC owners. Many of whom are very happy customers, who would agree that it ended up being well worth it.
And some might look back at regret, “it wasn’t worth it, having to book 11 months in advance was so aggravating. I ended up taking a couple trips that I wish I hadn’t taken, spending so much on tickets and airfare because I felt locked in. I wish I had never bought, I would have only taken the trips I really wanted to, I would have been able to plan last minute, and could have stayed in a fantastic off site location for less money”

So much of the value of DVC subjective. So all we can do is say, “I objectively paid $x, and subjectively it was well worth the price.”

I hear what you’re saying, but I also think you’re complicating this comparison. I also didn’t ask to make subjective comparisons as to whether DVC was a good deal or not. I am just pointing out that if you want to make an objective comparison of dollar amounts between what you’d get back selling DVC and after five years versus what you’d expect as a return had you invested, you need to factor in the value of the vacation money that wasn’t spent owning DVC versus what you would have spent had you invested the money but needed to pay out of pocket for vacations. In that case, I’d argue the objective comparison is to compare what you would have spent if you paid cash; presumably you know your vacation habits and what level of accommodations you’d normally purchase and what the usual deals are for the time of year you’d travel.
If I ultimately paid $102 per point for my DVC and sold for $110, and let’s say I had 100 points, and pre-DVC I spent $2000 per year on Disney vacations, it’s not just that I made a profit of $800 at the end of 5 years. I also did not spend $10,000 on vacations AND I made a profit of $800. I just feel that if you’re going to make an objective comparison, and going to factor in all the costs of DVC, that mathematically comparison should include what you would have spent on those DVC vacations. That is after all the objective point of DVC, to reduce those costs of vacationing.

Whether it’s *worth it* ultimately is, yes, subjective, and there’s a lot of factors that can contribute to it. And yes ultimately most of us own for the subjective reasons.

 

[hhisc16]

There’s no way IMO. OKW extension is still a cluster, it was a failure at the time. DVC doesn’t want the old charts around at all.

Theyll slap some paint on and resell before they extend anything.

If only the OKW extension was completed correctly...

 

[havoc315]

If I ultimately paid $102 per point for my DVC and sold for $110, and let’s say I had 100 points, and pre-DVC I spent $2000 per year on Disney vacations, it’s not just that I made a profit of $800 at the end of 5 years. I also did not spend $10,000 on vacations AND I made a profit of $800. I just feel that if you’re going to make an objective comparison, and going to factor in all the costs of DVC, that mathematically comparison should include what you would have spent on those DVC vacations. That is after all the objective point of DVC, to reduce those costs of vacationing.

But you're assuming that what is really unknowable is knowable. Yes, lots of people convince themselves they know exactly what they would have done if they didn't own DVC, but that's just attempted rationalization in most cases. Just because I like a certain vacation in my 40 with young kids, doesn't mean I'm going to want the same type of vacation in my 50's without kids. Of course, if I have effectively pre-paid my Disney vacations, I might continue to take them, and I might be perfectly happy. But if I hadn't pre-paid the Disney vacations, can I truly swear with absolute certainty that I wouldn't have taken another type of trip?
Or maybe, had someone not pre-paid for Disney, they may have decided to only go 3 out of 5 years, instead of all 5. Especially, maybe if one years, airfares spiked out of control. Since you already pre-paid the DVC, you bit the bullet and paid the airfare -- But then you are spending EXTRA on your vacations because of your DVC ownership.
Or take me, as an example -- I can honestly say that owning DVC saves me almost nothing on my vacations. Instead, I bought DVC to give myself some extra vacations.
Prior to DVC, I spent $xxxx per year on vacation. Since owning DVC, I actually spend a bit more than $xxxx per year. As I still take my non-Disney vacations, and now I have an added annual cost of Disney tickets, airfare to Orlando, etc -- I didn't have those expenses as often before I owned DVC.

So you can't just say, "what I would have spent on those DVC vacations" -- Because most people, if they didn't own DVC, would not have spent for the same vacations. They might have taken a year off from Disney (or more than a year), they may have stayed less days, they may have booked free dining, they may have stayed off property.

Again, it's easy to say, "after all the calculations, I paid $xxx per trip for my years in DVC, and that's a really great price." But people are fooling themselves if they think they can objectively say, "and that saved me $xxx!"
If you're familiar with the store Kohls, you know every item on the store is perpetually on sale. And on top of that, they flood the market in 30% off coupons.
So you buy a sweater with a sticker price of $60, but it's on "sale" for $40, and you then get your 30% off coupon (the coupon you can actually pick up in the front of the store as you walk in), and now it's only $28!
And on the bottom of the receipt, they will print, "today's savings: $32!"
And it makes you feel really good, you paid only $28 and you saved $32!

In the end, that's DVC. You're buying a product, you're paying the same thing as most other people who bought the product. And maybe - hopefully - you're really happy with the price you paid. So, "I really like this sweater, and it was only $28!" -- That's a true statement. But, "I saved over 50% on this sweater!" -- that's a bunch of BS.

 

[Lorana]

But you're assuming that what is really unknowable is knowable. Yes, lots of people convince themselves they know exactly what they would have done if they didn't own DVC, but that's just attempted rationalization in most cases.

I'm not sure what I'm suggesting is really any more unknowable than predicting what the return on investment will be for that same money if you had invested it. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance, any more than past vacation patterns are a guarantee of future vacations. However, if I'm trying to create an objective comparison, or at least as objective as possible, I can compare what my ROI would be if I had invested that money -- and in that I making assumptions about what my return rate would be AND making an assumption I won't use that money for anything else. (But, again, if I'm not buying DVC, then my vacation money has to come from somewhere...).

So you can't just say, "what I would have spent on those DVC vacations"

You also can't just say, "I'd have invested my money, it will earn x return, and I would never have spent it," by that same logic.

It's clear we don't agree on how to calculate a comparison between them. But in your example, if I skip a year of taking vacations, then I'm likely renting out my points and using that money to fund a different vacation - in which case I've earned more back from my initial cost of buy-in, and my DVC is still enabling a "free" vacation. If my vacation patterns change and I'm no longer wanting to use my DVC, well then, we're doing what we were originally comparing: selling the DVC and comparing the $102 cost of owning for five years against the $110 received for selling. Where we are disagreeing is that you think the value of vacations or of rental income shouldn't factored into the "return" of owning DVC; I think they should.

And it makes you feel really good, you paid only $28 and you saved $32!

I'm not talking about savings. I'm talking about the value received. The two are different. Let me try another example to highlight the difference.
Take the first I noted above. Let's say my vacation pattern is to spend $2000 per year on vacations. I buy 100 points in DVC and over 5 years, I spend $102 per point factoring in initial buy-in, closing costs, and annual dues for 5 years. I go on vacation for five years on those points, (or I don't and I rent for five years, and get $2000 in income for renting them out). Now when I sell, I make $110 per point. I've gotten $800 back, but I also never spent the $10,000 on five vacations I would have spent otherwise. That for me is the value of my return: the $800 in profit I made, plus the $10,000 I essentially got "for free" that was in my budget and plans to spend anyway.

But if I wanted to talk about savings, I could talk about the accommodations I booked with my DVC that I wouldn't have bought without DVC. For example, I'm staying in an AKV Grand Villa for 3 nights over Thanksgiving. That costs me 298 points, and thus $2,392.28 in dues. The price if I had booked this with Disney directly would have been $9924. I just saved $7,531.72 by owning DVC! Woohoo! Sure makes me feel good about my DVC and what I can save over having it versus not.

But, in a value comparison, I don't factor that in. Why? Because I absolutely would never have spend nearly $10k on 3 nights at the AKV to begin with. If I was paying out of pocket for this trip, I'd have booked a 1BR and not paid for my SIL & family, for a cost of $3597 for the 3 nights. (Now, I'm still seeing value here, because I would have been willing to spend $3597, but I ultimately only spent $2392.28 in dues). This is the point I think you're making, and I agree with you on that. These types of savings calculations - the cost of the accommodations I'm booking now, rather than factoring in the cost of my vacation budget - is the feel good savings that is subjective.

But if you have a vacation budget you use every year, and your DVC takes the place of that vacation budget, then you should absolutely factor in the value of that vacation budget when determining the value of your DVC ownership.

The subjective parts -- like me being able to treat my SIL and family to a Disney trip, and us booking a Grand Villa we'd never pay cash prices for; not to mention the years of memories we are making -- is an entirely different factor, because then there are things like 11 month booking windows, not being able to take advantage of discounted room rates or free dining plans, not having daily housekeeping (but, having free laundry, free parking), etc. that would come into play, and those can be very subjective to the individual.

 

[havoc315]

This discussion is truly just becoming academic...... We aren't disagreeing on the bottom line, just the best way to look at it.

I'm not sure what I'm suggesting is really any more unknowable than predicting what the return on investment will be for that same money if you had invested it. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance, any more than past vacation patterns are a guarantee of future vacations. However, if I'm trying to create an objective comparison, or at least as objective as possible, I can compare what my ROI would be if I had invested that money -- and in that I making assumptions about what my return rate would be AND making an assumption I won't use that money for anything else. (But, again, if I'm not buying DVC, then my vacation money has to come from somewhere...).

But 5 years after putting money into an actual investment, you can then calculate with absolutely certainty what it earned. 5 years after owning DVC, you can calculate how much you spent. But it's impossible to truly know what you would have spent if you didn't buy DVC.

But ok, I'll play along for my own scenario, over 10 years, I would have spent about $5000-$8000 on Disney accommodations, as I would have taken 2-3 trips. With DVC, I go far more often. I won't go through every calculation, but assuming I break even on re-selling, after buying direct, so I've basically paid for dues after 10 years...
My DVC investment actually lost $8,000 to $11,000. As I would have spent $8,000-$11,000 less if I hadn't purchased DVC. Actually, on top of that, I wouldn't have spent so much on Disney tickets, Disney dining, airfare.... so really, my DVC "investment" actually lost about $25,000-$30,000.

Now, that said... I'm not unhappy at all! Because, in the end, I think I got good value. I'm glad I took more Disney trips than I otherwise would have. I think I did so at a fair price. But I'm not going to rationalize it as an imaginary savings.

You also can't just say, "I'd have invested my money, it will earn x return, and I would never have spent it," by that same logic.

Absolutely true!! But that still begs the question then, when you made the purchase, did you make the purchase INSTEAD of something else, or did you make the purchase IN ADDITION to all your regular spending.
Basically, there are only 3 options:
1 -- you spent money that otherwise would have been saved/invested -- And this is the scenario I've been using for my calculations.
2 -- You BORROWED the money -- That could mean financing the purchase. It could mean you put off paying down your credit cards. Under this scenario, the calculations are FAR worse than I've been estimating.
3 -- You sacrificed a different purchase in order to make the DVC purchase. But then this begs the question of what else were you going to purchase. Because you're now giving up something of value. (either by not purchasing it, or selling off something you own). And whatever you're giving up has to be factored in.


No matter what, you're giving up something, whether it be an investment opportunity, or you're taking on debt, or you gave up on purchasing something else.

It's clear we don't agree on how to calculate a comparison between them. But in your example, if I skip a year of taking vacations, then I'm likely renting out my points and using that money to fund a different vacation - in which case I've earned more back from my initial cost of buy-in, and my DVC is still enabling a "free" vacation. If my vacation patterns change and I'm no longer wanting to use my DVC, well then, we're doing what we were originally comparing: selling the DVC and comparing the $102 cost of owning for five years against the $110 received for selling. Where we are disagreeing is that you think the value of vacations or of rental income shouldn't factored into the "return" of owning DVC; I think they should.

I am factoring in rental income. But now factor in the time and inconvenience of doing so. Factor in that you aren't always able to find a renter. I had 6 excess points that couldn't be banked or transferred. Unsurprisingly, couldn't find anyone to rent 6 points.
In the scenario where you are renting our your DVC points, those points aren't enabling a free vacation -- you're just cutting your losses.
At best, renting your points becomes a break even scenario.

I'm not talking about savings. I'm talking about the value received. The two are different. Let me try another example to highlight the difference.
Take the first I noted above. Let's say my vacation pattern is to spend $2000 per year on vacations. I buy 100 points in DVC and over 5 years, I spend $102 per point factoring in initial buy-in, closing costs, and annual dues for 5 years. I go on vacation for five years on those points, (or I don't and I rent for five years, and get $2000 in income for renting them out). Now when I sell, I make $110 per point. I've gotten $800 back, but I also never spent the $10,000 on five vacations I would have spent otherwise. That for me is the value of my return: the $800 in profit I made, plus the $10,000 I essentially got "for free" that was in my budget and plans to spend anyway.

I understand the numbers are for illustration but they aren't making much sense.
First, if you spend $2,000 on vacations -- Let's remember, DVC is only paying for the hotel component. Not for your airfare, park tickets, food, etc. And those things increase significantly in cost every year. And that's part of the reason that DVC is a great product for Disney -- it locks you into paying increased costs every year.
So -- Let's say you spent $5,000 on vacation pre-DVC, $2000 on the hotel, and $3000 on the other parts of the trip.
Well... those other parts are going to keep increasing, at a rate faster than other vacations.

Now, getting to your points -- You're using the example of someone who bought many years ago for $65, now able to sell at about $120. I don't know how valid that calculation really is. As 5 years ago, the average pricing was more like $80 per point. So I do think the claim of going from $65 to $120 in 5 years is simply wrong. But let's adopt it for the sake of the argument.
DVC: Initial purchase -- $7500 ($6500 + closing costs)
DVC, additional payments: $750 per year in dues
Total spent over 5 years: $11,250
Sell the points for $120 per point, pay commissions and closing costs: re-coup, $10,800

NET: -$350

Compared to:
Initial investment: $7500
Annual addition to investment: $750
Total accumulated over 5 years: $14,000 to $16,000 (with ROI of 5%-9%). [EDIT DUE TO DUMB PRIOR MISTAKE]:
Total spent over 5 years: $11,250

Total NET: $3000-$5000

So total cost of DVC, factoring in the time value of money:, about $3300 to $5300
Over 5 years, factoring in the time value of money -- You basically paid $660 to $1100 per year.

Ahh.... then you wouldn't have had vacations. Absolutely true -- But that's why there is a difference between a purchase and an investment.
Now, thanks to the fantastic supposed-increase in the re-sale value, you truly got a great deal. Paying only $660 to $1100 per vacation, where renting 100 points would cost you somewhere between $1500 and $2,000. You potentially saved around 50% compared to renting the points....
Though renting would include different calculations of the time value of money, since you still have the lump of money at the start but then you're withdrawing from it.
Assuming you run out your DVC until expiration, then the break-even compared to renting is about 10 years, give or take based on a few factors. But if you re-sell, it depends on the point you re-sell and the value you get.
If re-sale prices truly go from $65 to $120 over just 5 years, then buying was quite wise compared to renting points. On the other hand, if we were to see it go from $95 to $105 in 5 years, the math may actually work better in renting. (not in the mood to go through all the calculations right now to be exact.)


And if you really want to run the calculations for DVC without factoring in the time value of money, then you're not actually calculating an investment. Once we consider the time value of money, we see how Disney exaggerates the break even point and savings of DVC.

But if I wanted to talk about savings, I could talk about the accommodations I booked with my DVC that I wouldn't have bought without DVC. For example, I'm staying in an AKV Grand Villa for 3 nights over Thanksgiving. That costs me 298 points, and thus $2,392.28 in dues. The price if I had booked this with Disney directly would have been $9924. I just saved $7,531.72 by owning DVC! Woohoo! Sure makes me feel good about my DVC and what I can save over having it versus not.

But, in a value comparison, I don't factor that in. Why? Because I absolutely would never have spend nearly $10k on 3 nights at the AKV to begin with. If I was paying out of pocket for this trip, I'd have booked a 1BR and not paid for my SIL & family, for a cost of $3597 for the 3 nights. (Now, I'm still seeing value here, because I would have been willing to spend $3597, but I ultimately only spent $2392.28 in dues). This is the point I think you're making, and I agree with you on that. These types of savings calculations - the cost of the accommodations I'm booking now, rather than factoring in the cost of my vacation budget - is the feel good savings that is subjective.

Yes... that's part of it...

But if you have a vacation budget you use every year, and your DVC takes the place of that vacation budget, then you should absolutely factor in the value of that vacation budget when determining the value of your DVC ownership.

But now another point I alluded to, which is why this type of calculation isn't very feasible.
I'll illustrate, over 7 years:
Year 0: Vacation budget of $5,000: $2,000 on hotel, $1,500 on airfare, $1000 on park tickets, $500 on park dining, etc.
Year 1: I Hotel is now $2200, airfare is $1550, park tickets are $1100 and food is $550 -- You spent $5400. Went $500 over budget because of Disney inflation, which is worse than real inflation.
So you buy DVC to control your costs -- $7500 initial outlay to DVC:
Year 2: you are still paying dues: So $750. Airfaire is up to $1600. Park tickets are now $1250. Food is now $600. Total spent: $4200 (woohoo, you saved money as per your hypothesis!)
Year 3: Hotel dues: $775. Airfare, regular inflation: $1650. Park tickets: $1400. Food: 675: Total spent: $4500
Year 4: Hotel dues: $820, airfare $1750, park tickets: $1600. Disney food: $775: Total spent: $4945
Year 5: Hotel dues: $850. Airfare: $1850. Park tickets: $1800. Disney food: $900: Total spent: $5400 (more than your original budget!)
Year 6: Hotel dues: $880: Airfare: $2000. Park tickets: $2200. Disney food: $1050. Total spent: $6130

Now, maybe you would have increased your vacation budget over time anyway. These numbers are rough estimates -- I was increasing dues and airfare by under 5% per year. Increasing Disney tickets and dining by 10-15% per year, which is quite true for Disney.

And thus, we see why DVC is such a big winner for Disney. You *thought* you were saving money -- But in just 4-5 years, you're actually spending far more at Disney than you were previously. Locking you into that increased spending is a big reason why Disney sells DVC.

I just purchased 4-day tickets for my family for February -- Family of 4, $2500! I was thinking back to the last time we took a 4 day trip in February, about 5-6 years ago, when the tickets would have been about $1,000.
I doubt you will find many DVC owners who can honestly say they are spending less annually on vacation at Disney than they were 5 years ago. Whatever they have "saved" on the hotel, they have made up for in tickets and elsewhere.

The subjective parts -- like me being able to treat my SIL and family to a Disney trip, and us booking a Grand Villa we'd never pay cash prices for; not to mention the years of memories we are making -- is an entirely different factor, because then there are things like 11 month booking windows, not being able to take advantage of discounted room rates or free dining plans, not having daily housekeeping (but, having free laundry, free parking), etc. that would come into play, and those can be very subjective to the individual.

Some of those things -- like the housekeeping and parking, have real dollar values. Problem becomes, there are just so many different factors, you would need a spreadsheet hundreds of pages long to factor in everything, and it's not the same for all people. Free parking is irrelevant if you don't drive. While there is a cost to adding housekeeping, some people say they don't want it anyway. Free dining has an equivalent value, but can't say how often you would have been able to get free dining.
So some of it is subjective pros and cons. Some are objective but too difficult to measure.

 

[DonMacGregor]

This discussion is truly just becoming academic....

Becoming?

 

[Sandisw]

Think it’s time to get back on topic. Buyers remorse and what to do if one has it.

 

[DL1WDW2]

I had buyers remorse so I cancelled and now watching the value of buy in for fixed guaranteed week at Riviera …I guess I have Cancel remorse.

 

[num]

I had buyers remorse so I cancelled and now watching the value of buy in for fixed guaranteed week at Riviera …I guess I have Cancel remorse.

thats worse than buyer’s remorse. hope you find something that fits! for me it was a new car, or this. i hate car dealers, so this was the obvious choice

 

[VWLforever]

Buying a timeshare with plans to use it once is a terrible decision. Walk away and consider the deposit money lost as a lesson learned.

The odds of Disney selling off DVC are about equally likely as Disney selling off Animal Kingdom. Financial analysts could make a case for either transaction- but neither one is going to happen.