tiberius said:
Living in south Texas, I have seen my share of hurricanes and their problems. I remember watching the approach of Hurricane Katrina and listening to local radio discuss and wonder why New Orleans was not being evacuated as early as Thursday and Friday before it hit. .
Trying to remember---but on one of those days it was still forecasted for the Florida Panhandle. Since fortune telling does not exist--they could have gone into a pre-prep mode...but order an evacuation for something that is 3 states away....is a bit unrealistic and hindsight is 20/20.
All the "but we knew it was going to hit"---well no we really didn't. Not until the target began shifting west and that didnt' start until Thursday--I don't recall what time. (I think about 5ish--with the first advisory including New Orleans at about 9pmish).
And in looking up the evacuation plans of New Orleans--when the target finally did shift to New Orleans and it was in the 72 hour window (and in the cone---it really was out of the cone for a good bit)---it was too close to nighttime to order an evacuation right way. They have to have so many hours of daylight remaining and they didn't and they couldn't order an evacuation. Not sure if this is a law or what.
Then it was only voluntary--and I recall Mayor Nagin saying in a press conference Sunday am (or maybe saturday, I don't recall) that he woudl do what he had to do to legally make people leave. There IS something screwy about the evacuation process.....if the Mayor did not have that power. I know here--we don't wait for the governor--but then again he doesn't wait for us and we get on the ball ASAP.
But one cannot implement a plan until their is a threat of danger---in florida....when we get into the cone (or it is so close that though we are not in a cone--we will be soon)--our Emerg svcs change their status to where they are watching the storm--getting everything in ready just in case something has to be done--but they don't tell us to do anything they just tell us to standby.
I think there is something weird about their preps--b/c though Mayor Nagin--a little too late wanted to make people leave--the way he was talking was almost like he didn't have the power to make people leave. Very weird. Perhaps some New Orleanians can shed some light on that.
Hindsight is 20/20 and I really wish I did screen shots of the different forecasting maps with the cone to show that indeed--NOLA wasn't in teh cone for quite a good bit--so to begin making people do stuff even if they had the power to do so--resources are better spent evaluating the storm for where it looks like it will go--not where everyone's crystal ball is telling them it would go. The storm could have just as easily slammed the panhandle and then we'd all be here screaming about why the govt focused their energies on New Orleans b/c they get missed every single time.
But it was about 5pm or so (I think on Thursday) when the projections were first changed to include New Orleans as a possible likely target.
Hurricane forecasting is a science that is not perfected just yet. We have come a long way since the turn of the century and even since Camille. However it is still not perfect--we are blessed we get as much time as we do and yes everyone shoudl be on their toes..but ultimately emergency preparedness for natural disaster--is a local thing--not a federal thing.