BLT sold for 66.25PP

[Jason@dvcstore]

I'll bet that it passes ROFR. The resort still hasn't sold out so I can't imagine Disney buying back more points. With the upcoming Grand Floridian DVC, they don't need a surplus of points accumulating at Bay Lake Tower like they did at Saratoga Springs. This is all just another indication of the poor state of our economy.

I agree.

Jason

 

[wdrl]

They wouldn't have to hold onto it that long. Once ROFR'd, it would simply pool into all the other inventory owned by DVD, and become a new contract. In essence, the 160 points for 2011 would come from developers points pool.

I'm not sure that DVD can do what you are saying. If DVD reacquires a stripped deed that has no points until 2012, it cannot "create" additional points for 2011. BLT has a finite number of points -- 5,733,530 by my estimate -- for each year, and if a Member already used 160 of those points in the 2011 UY, then DVD cannot turn around and offer those same 2011 points to another buyer.

In my opinion, DVD will not be able to resell those points until the 2012 UY.

 

[Chuck S]

I'm not sure that DVD can do what you are saying. If DVD reacquires a stripped deed that has no points until 2012, it cannot "create" additional points for 2011. BLT has a finite number of points -- 5,733,530 by my estimate -- for each year, and if a Member already used 160 of those points in the 2011 UY, then DVD cannot turn around and offer those same 2011 points to another buyer.

In my opinion, DVD will not be able to resell those points until the 2012 UY.

But DVD holds a vast number (even 5% of a resort is a sizable number of points.) The contract itself is dissolved and added to the pool of unsold developer points upon ROFR. DVD does not resell any specific contract it reacquires through ROFR. DVD only sells new contracts, it does not technically sell a "used" contract.

 

[wdrl]

But DVD holds a vast number (even 5% of a resort is a sizable number of points.) The contract itself is dissolved and added to the pool of unsold developer points upon ROFR. DVD does not resell any specific contract it reacquires through ROFR. DVD only sells new contracts, it does not technically sell a "used" contract.

I agree with you, up to a point. Even if a reacquired 160-point deed has only 2012 or 2013 points available, the real estate interest represented by those points are still counted as part of the 2% stake that DVD is obligated by the Master Declaration to own at each resort.

However, I believe reacquired points are still tied to a specific Use Year and once used in a UY, the points cannot be recreated within that same UY. Even though DVD holds a minimum of 2% of a resort's total points, it still could not reacquire a deed that has only 2012 points and resell it with 2011 points. Let me use an example, albeit extreme in nature, to demonstrate my point:

A resort has 2% owned by DVD and 98% by DVC Members. The Members use their full allotment of 2011 points to book 98% of the villas at the resort, and then sell all of their deeds. All of the deeds are stripped of 2011 points. DVD reacquires all of the deeds and wants to resell them. Although DVD could put its original 2% ownership stake on the market with 2011 points, it could not offer 2011 points for the 98% stake that it reacquired from the original Members. If it did, the resort would end up with double the amount of points for the 2011 UY. I doubt that the State of Florida would look too kindly on a timeshare developer who sells 196% of a resort's available space to the general public.

 

[Plutofan]

That would be a great deal if it passes ROFR. I find it hard to believe that Dsiney will allow it to pass.

 

[tjkraz]

I'll bet that it passes ROFR. The resort still hasn't sold out so I can't imagine Disney buying back more points. With the upcoming Grand Floridian DVC, they don't need a surplus of points accumulating at Bay Lake Tower like they did at Saratoga Springs.

One contract doesn't exactly qualify as a surplus. Disney still has significant marketing efforts directed at BLT and there's every reason to believe they could quickly flip the contract for $130+ per point. For a resort in active sales, that's far better than allowing a resale price precedent of $66 per.

Far different circumstances than SSR which had nearly 3x as many points to sell, has been available from the developer for nearly 8 years now, and whose pricing has already been undercut by resale prices.

This is all just another indication of the poor state of our economy.

One eBay resale transaction does not stand as an economic indicator. TTS' listings are all $95-100+. Until proven otherwise, this particular listing is the aberration...not signs of a new trend.

 

[bobbyg4eagle]

One contract doesn't exactly qualify as a surplus. Disney still has significant marketing efforts directed at BLT and there's every reason to believe they could quickly flip the contract for $130+ per point. For a resort in active sales, that's far better than allowing a resale price precedent of $66 per.

Far different circumstances than SSR which had nearly 3x as many points to sell, has been available from the developer for nearly 8 years now, and whose pricing has already been undercut by resale prices.



One eBay resale transaction does not stand as an economic indicator. TTS' listings are all $95-100+. Until proven otherwise, this particular listing is the aberration...not signs of a new trend.

The US economy is still struggling as are many of the middle class. DVC owners are likely in the middle class and DVC can be easily sold for cash. Given the extra expenses beyond lodging for Disney visits, I would expect that some DVC owners who have taken advantage of DVC ownership for several years could be inclined to sell. The Federal Reserve has essentially printed trillion of dollars with little to show for it, except a richer upper class, a growing subsidized lower class and a shrinking middle class to pay for it. IMO we are in the middle of the woods and not near the edge.
DVC prices will continue to be under pressure as the middle class continues to bare the brunt of a manufactured printed paper bounce in the US economy. Maybe with a falling dollar, foreigners will find it cheap enough to revive housing and timeshares, but they are likely to purchase direct.

 

[jesschris]

I am sure Disney knows what they are doing to make a profit. But that is a great price for BLT. Wish I could get in at the price.

 

[tjkraz]

The US economy is still struggling as are many of the middle class. DVC owners are likely in the middle class and DVC can be easily sold for cash. Given the extra expenses beyond lodging for Disney visits, I would expect that some DVC owners who have taken advantage of DVC ownership for several years could be inclined to sell. The Federal Reserve has essentially printed trillion of dollars with little to show for it, except a richer upper class, a growing subsidized lower class and a shrinking middle class to pay for it. IMO we are in the middle of the woods and not near the edge.
DVC prices will continue to be under pressure as the middle class continues to bare the brunt of a manufactured printed paper bounce in the US economy. Maybe with a falling dollar, foreigners will find it cheap enough to revive housing and timeshares, but they are likely to purchase direct.

Interesting comments but I'm not really sure how it applies to the comments that I quoted. DVC continues to sell BLT points for around $130 per point so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them ROFR at $66.

And I don't see how one eBay transaction at such a low price really says anything about the state of the resale market when others are asking (and getting) 30-40% more.

On eBay, it's very common to see dramatic swings in price for even moderately priced items. You could see the same item sell for $35 one day, $50 the next day and $20 the third day. Depends greatly on things like time dime and day of the auction close, who happens to be looking...even things like holidays and sporting events can pull eyeballs away from computers.

 

[bobbyg4eagle]

Interesting comments but I'm not really sure how it applies to the comments that I quoted. DVC continues to sell BLT points for around $130 per point so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them ROFR at $66.

And I don't see how one eBay transaction at such a low price really says anything about the state of the resale market when others are asking (and getting) 30-40% more.

On eBay, it's very common to see dramatic swings in price for even moderately priced items. You could see the same item sell for $35 one day, $50 the next day and $20 the third day. Depends greatly on things like time dime and day of the auction close, who happens to be looking...even things like holidays and sporting events can pull eyeballs away from computers.

I think it's the trend that is important. It looks like Disney is foreclosing on about 100 contracts per month and maybe taking over more outside the foreclosure process. I don't see why they would spend any money for points when they can get them for practically nothing. ROFR was assumed to provide a floor/support for prices. Even the brokers encourage not to bid too low because if the seller accepts, DVC will purchase from under you. That looks like a false threat and it now appears that DVC has pulled their 'bid' price and sellers are faced with lower and lower offers. $60 may be purchased by DVC for BLT, but either way, the trend is in place.

 

[utahkennedys]

One thing I notice on the resale site from the sponsor is that there are several 50 pt BLT listings that just aren't selling week after week...I know they are stripped but still...usually 50 point contracts sell no matter what resort they are at fairly quickly. That is the size I am watching for.

 

[tjkraz]

I think it's the trend that is important.

I'm still unclear on which trend you are referring to. DVC has exercised ROFR on contracts in recent months...it just isn't happening with the same frequency as in years past.

On many resorts they have undeniably given up using ROFR to prop-up prices. Just don't know if that will hold true for a BLT offer which is substantially below resale pricing and half of what DVC is offering.

On resorts like SSR, AKV and most of the "sold out" properties, I agree it isn't worth re-acquiring points. But that's as much a function of demand as supply. In this case, DVC could still re-sell at a mark-up of $50 or so.

DVC may also see value in making a statement that such lowball offers will not slide through. Yes, they have abandoned such tactics at most resorts but while they still have a few hundred thousand points to sell at BLT, I don't think they want to see resale asking prices fall from $95-100 to $65-70.

 

[erikawolf2004]

There was a listing on ebay that closed today @ $54.02, fully loaded contract of 150 at the AKV.

 

[jnsolomon]

There was a listing on ebay that closed today @ $54.02, fully loaded contract of 150 at the AKV.

I would not consider that particular contract loaded. It was an Oct UY with the 2010 contracts not banked. It was part of a bankruptcy sale and they probably can't bank the points now because the 2011 dues are not paid. By the new time the new owner takes ownership in 6-8 weeks, it will be too late to bank the points and the points will only have 3 months until they expire. To me, this drops the value by about $10 a point.

Also the buyer is responsible for closing costs and paying the 2011 dues, not to mention it was specifically stated that there was NO guarantee to a clean and clear title.

Certainly not anything I would want to get involved with.

 

[dbs1228]

I would not consider that particular contract loaded. It was an Oct UY with the 2010 contracts not banked. It was part of a bankruptcy sale and they probably can't bank the points now because the 2011 dues are not paid. By the new time the new owner takes ownership in 6-8 weeks, it will be too late to bank the points and the points will only have 3 months until they expire. To me, this drops the value by about $10 a point.

Also the buyer is responsible for closing costs and paying the 2011 dues, not to mention it was specifically stated that there was NO guarantee to a clean and clear title.

Certainly not anything I would want to get involved with.

I saw that also, to risky!

BLT came with 2011 Feb UY points buyer did pay closing etc... but even with that it was 74.00 pp

 

[disneynutz]

But DVD holds a vast number (even 5% of a resort is a sizable number of points.) The contract itself is dissolved and added to the pool of unsold developer points upon ROFR. DVD does not resell any specific contract it reacquires through ROFR. DVD only sells new contracts, it does not technically sell a "used" contract.

They must either create small contracts or turn over small contracts to Fidelity. The number of smaller contracts the Fidelity has listed is much greater than the other brokers.

Bill

 

[AllieV]

Look at OKW for example, they sold it initally for about $50 per point...obviously making a good profit, then they ROFR at $45 and resell it at $90 and add the 15 extra years without additional building costs. Obviously there is good profit on that.

They don't sell new contracts on these older ones, though, right? Or can current DVC members buy contacts at "sold out" resorts?

 

[Chuck S]

They don't sell new contracts on these older ones, though, right? Or can current DVC members buy contacts at "sold out" resorts?

DVC will sell you a new contract for any resort, as long as they have points available.

 

[AllieV]

DVC will sell you a new contract for any resort, as long as they have points available.

Cool! Is this new? About 4 or 5 years ago, we almost bought SSR but decided to buy a house instead. I had told them I wasn't interested in SSR but might buy a Boardwalk contract. They said Disney doesn't do that. Then when he explained the ROFR and that Disney always buys back (then anyway), I said, "so what do you do with all those points if you don't resell them?" He said people buy extra points sometimes for a particular vaca.

 

[dbs1228]

Cool! Is this new? About 4 or 5 years ago, we almost bought SSR but decided to buy a house instead. I had told them I wasn't interested in SSR but might buy a Boardwalk contract. They said Disney doesn't do that. Then when he explained the ROFR and that Disney always buys back (then anyway), I said, "so what do you do with all those points if you don't resell them?" He said people buy extra points sometimes for a particular vaca.

Yes you can absolutely buy sold out property direct if they have the points, or wait until they do. If you are interested in any sold out property look at resale 1st you will save a ton of money. BWV has had contracts sell in the low 50.00's pp vs. 115.00 direct.