I guess it all depends. If you are only buying APs for the discount, then I think the 7/4 would be better. The 7/4 would save you the cost of buying an AP. However, if you already have APs or are buying them because you're going more than one time in a year, then the AP discount would probably work out better. For us the AP discount is better as we are planning 4 trips during the next year - one this coming June, one in Oct., one in Dec. and one in June 2005.
If this helps, a co-worker of mine is paying $1,760 with the 7/4 deal at CBR for a waterview room in June for 2 adults, 1 junior and 1 child.
I would try for the 7/4 deal if you are only buying APs for the discount. You will probably come out ahead but like Disney Debbie said, you need to do the math.