Beach Club extending contract date??

[dboules]

Anyone have insight as to if the beach club will extend the expiration date at some point in the future?
I’m thinking about a point add on but I have always wanted the beach club so trying to factor in the contract end date to my decision.

 

[RoseGold]

The OKW extension was such a mess, I doubt it ever gets attempted again.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/dvcs-old-key-west-extension-ordeal.3078317/
So few took Disney up on it, there's a bunch of mess about the quitclaims. And now a lot of things are confusing about the end days of the OKW contracts. On the plus side for Disney, it created a weird middle ground where Disney can use ROFR to repackage, as they have been doing heavily lately.

If DVC were going to extend, I wouldn't pick BC/BW. They're prime location. Much easier to throw on some paint and sell them at full price again.

I would definitely buy only if you want the 2042 end date.

 

[drusba]

Disney has mentioned nothing about an extension and you should likely assume it is highly unlikely to occur. An extension was atempted with OKW years ago and was mainly a failure from Disney's view point because most did not buy into it. Moreover, it created legal headaches for Disney concerning what to do about contracts not extended.

More important, an extension is inconsistent with the modern DVC's mindset to maximize profit even if it injures members, e.g., over the last ten years Disney has adopted several restrictions all designed to show its hate of resale purchasers, and come 2042, it is likely that the vast majority of BCV owners will be resale purchasers. The problem to Disney with an extension is that doing so will significantly lower the ability of Disney to make the huge profits it could make if it instead ended the current BCV in 2042 and then began a second and new BCV with all new contracts and ownership interests. An extension would require leaving the ownership and point structure as is, while ending BCV and starting anew would allow Disney to redo the points per unit and greatly increase the total points applicable to the resort and to any given unit and any given room size, meaning it will have a lot more points to sell than if there were only an extension.

 

[Phatscott25]

Yes I'm scared to see what that point chart will look like when that happens!

 

[RoseGold]

starting anew would allow Disney to redo the points per unit and greatly increase the total points applicable to the resort and to any given unit and any given room size, meaning it will have a lot more points to sell than if there were only an extension.

Bingo. In 2042, slap some paint on it, inflate the Riviera 3 chart a little, and print some money.

 

[Novatrix]

Yeah, no way they'll ever think of extending the current BCV contracts. Right now a Tower Studio at Riviera is the same number of points as a BCV studio. In future, they'll want BCV 2.0 studios to be 3 times the price so Riviera can look like a bargain.

 

[dboules]

Thanks all! We own at VWL and AKL... We should have waited at VWL to buy Beach Club instead; but we do love VWL though.
I will likely just buy some resale points at Saratoga Springs given the low per point price and lower maintenance fees.

 

[mustinjourney]

Disney has mentioned nothing about an extension and you should likely assume it is highly unlikely to occur. An extension was atempted with OKW years ago and was mainly a failure from Disney's view point because most did not buy into it. Moreover, it created legal headaches for Disney concerning what to do about contracts not extended.

More important, an extension is inconsistent with the modern DVC's mindset to maximize profit even if injures members, e.g., over the last ten years Disney has adopted several restrictions all designed to show its hate of resale purchasers, and come 2042, it is likely that the vast majority of BCV owners will be resale purchasers. The problem to Disney with an extension is that doing so will significantly lower the ability of Disney to make the huge profits it could make if it instead ended the current BCV in 2042 and then began a second and new BCV with all new contracts and ownership interests. An extension would require leaving the ownership and point structure as is, while ending BCV and starting anew would allow Disney to redo the points per unit and greatly increase the total points applicable to the resort and to any given unit and any given room size, meaning it will have a lot more points to sell than if there were only an extension.

about the ONLY way I could see them doing an extension would be if they were in a cash flow situation in which they needed to print money ASAP and didn't want to take the risk of building a new property.

 

[mustinjourney]

Yeah, no way they'll ever think of extending the current BCV contracts. Right now a Tower Studio at Riviera is the same number of points as a BCV studio. In future, they'll want BCV 2.0 studios to be 3 times the price so Riviera can look like a bargain.

I'm all for hyperbole -- but 3x the price? Let's be somewhat real here. Instead of 15 points a night in low season -- you'd be looking at something closer to 17-18. They can't go over VGF on a point per night without upgrading that property greatly.

 

[Sandisw]

I'm all for hyperbole -- but 3x the price? Let's be somewhat real here. Instead of 15 points a night in low season -- you'd be looking at something closer to 17-18. They can't go over VGF on a point per night without upgrading that property greatly.

I think you will see the same points charts at RIV.

 

[Novatrix]

I'm all for hyperbole -- but 3x the price? Let's be somewhat real here. Instead of 15 points a night in low season -- you'd be looking at something closer to 17-18. They can't go over VGF on a point per night without upgrading that property greatly.

I guess we'll find out if my statement was unreasonable in 22 years.

I will say if you look at the historical trend, comparing 7 nights at each of the following resorts in May
OKW - '91 - 85 pts - original price per point in today's dollars $86.03 - price for a week's worth of points in today's dollars $7,312.55
BCV - '02 - 114 pts - original price per point in today's dollars $108.56- price for a week's worth of points in today's dollars $12,375.84
Riv - '19 - 155 pts (preferred) - original price per point in today's dollars $188 - price for a week's worth of points in today's dollars $29,140

No one thought Riviera's point chart would be that high since it was built at a moderate property, I wouldn't bet that they won't go higher than the VGF point charts.

 

[RoseGold]

No one thought Riviera's point chart would be that high since it was built at a moderate property, I wouldn't bet that they won't go higher than the VGF point charts.

I agree the next property will be at or higher than VGF's chart -- though maybe only the whatever view or only a few categories. RIV already whizzed past BLT's 10 year old chart and is uncomfortably close to VGF's.

By then the VGF chart will be 10 years old, and it will be time to inflate the points.

 

[RoseGold]

about the ONLY way I could see them doing an extension would be if they were in a cash flow situation in which they needed to print money ASAP and didn't want to take the risk of building a new property.

Even then, they could just switch over some Jambo/Poly rooms or a wing of Yacht Club. There are a ton of solutions that don't lock in the cheap 2042 charts.

 

[gdrj]

The $$$ from selling points new or knocking it down and making it larger is more profitable

 

[mustinjourney]

I guess we'll find out if my statement was unreasonable in 22 years.

I will say if you look at the historical trend, comparing 7 nights at each of the following resorts in May
OKW - '91 - 85 pts - original price per point in today's dollars $86.03 - price for a week's worth of points in today's dollars $7,312.55
BCV - '02 - 114 pts - original price per point in today's dollars $108.56- price for a week's worth of points in today's dollars $12,375.84
Riv - '19 - 155 pts (preferred) - original price per point in today's dollars $188 - price for a week's worth of points in today's dollars $29,140

No one thought Riviera's point chart would be that high since it was built at a moderate property, I wouldn't bet that they won't go higher than the VGF point charts.

You're comparing buy-in price in conjunction with points per night.

I'm specifically talking only about points per night.

Two completely different things.

 

[mustinjourney]

Even then, they could just switch over some Jambo/Poly rooms or a wing of Yacht Club. There are a ton of solutions that don't lock in the cheap 2042 charts.

that would still require capital expenditure.

Not a lot on the grand scheme of things...but still an outlay of cash.

extending a contract out would only cost some legal fees and administrative costs.

 

[mustinjourney]

Even then, they could just switch over some Jambo/Poly rooms or a wing of Yacht Club. There are a ton of solutions that don't lock in the cheap 2042 charts.

converting a wing of Yacht club could be an easy next resort. Especially considering how much Epcot is getting upgraded right now.

 

[BruinEd03]

that would still require capital expenditure.

Not a lot on the grand scheme of things...but still an outlay of cash.

extending a contract out would only cost some legal fees and administrative costs.

Yes, but they make a profit of $100 to $120 per point for new resorts versus whatever they charge per point to extend it. The cash outlay will be worth it given that these resorts have already proven themselves. In addition, they can fix any issues with the original design (structural or aesthetic), and in the meantime, they can have additional hotel rooms available for rent while one resort is being developed.

With Boulder Ridge, Beach Club, and Boardwalk all expiring at the same time, they can:

1.) Develop Boardwalk, rent out Beach Club and Boulder Ridge. This will last for approx. 3 years.
2.) Open up Boardwalk. Then begin working on Beach Club, while still renting out Boulder Ridge. This will last for approx. 3 years.
3.) Open up Beach Club, then begin working on Boulder Ridge. This will last for approx. 3 years.
4.) Open up Boulder Ridge. That should get them to 2051.

They would also have the option of redeveloping HH or Vero in the interim at any one of those points. People think those will be sold, but I'm not sure. DVC may not be able to make $100 to $120 per point, but they could make $50 per point without having to redevelop much, especially if they make people blue card members. HH and Vero Beach are much more accessible to people state side versus Hawaii.

Saratoga Springs expires in 2054, Animal Kingdom and Old Key West in 2057, Bay Lake Tower and Grand Californian in 2060, etc.

 

[havoc315]

Bingo. In 2042, slap some paint on it, inflate the Riviera 3 chart a little, and print some money.

i mostly agree... but suspect it will be more than a slap of paint.
It’s the BEST real estate at Disney outside of Magic Kingdom resorts. It books super solid for Epcot Festivals.

They will take the time for a major re-build or renovation. Add more rooms. Upgrade the rooms so to demand even higher prices.

 

[mustinjourney]

Yes, but they make a profit of $100 to $120 per point for new resorts versus whatever they charge per point to extend it. The cash outlay will be worth it given that these resorts have already proven themselves. In addition, they can fix any issues with the original design (structural or aesthetic), and in the meantime, they can have additional hotel rooms available for rent while one resort is being developed.

With Boulder Ridge, Beach Club, and Boardwalk all expiring at the same time, they can:

1.) Develop Boardwalk, rent out Beach Club and Boulder Ridge. This will last for approx. 3 years.
2.) Open up Boardwalk. Then begin working on Beach Club, while still renting out Boulder Ridge. This will last for approx. 3 years.
3.) Open up Beach Club, then begin working on Boulder Ridge. This will last for approx. 3 years.
4.) Open up Boulder Ridge. That should get them to 2051.

They would also have the option of redeveloping HH or Vero in the interim at any one of those points. People think those will be sold, but I'm not sure. DVC may not be able to make $100 to $120 per point, but they could make $50 per point without having to redevelop much, especially if they make people blue card members. HH and Vero Beach are much more accessible to people state side versus Hawaii.

Saratoga Springs expires in 2054, Animal Kingdom and Old Key West in 2057, Bay Lake Tower and Grand Californian in 2060, etc.

I'm not arguing this at all -- again -- my only point was if they were strapped for cash.

There's no doubt that starting over would be the best long term -- but you have to understand that sometimes VPs are in it for the short haul (bonuses/budgets), and making easy money in the short term might be beneficial if the cash is not flowing.