Beach Club extending contract date??

[Ginamarie]

More than 20% of OKW is 2057 at this point.

Disney will own the other points at OKW and can rent those units cash. They cannot tear down buildings willy nilly that have contracts associated to units therein.

It's one of the big issues at OKW.

This is right. The real estate reverts back to Disney and they'll be selling the units cash. They'll just have a LOT of extra units to sell cash for that period.

 

[havoc315]

More than 20% of OKW is 2057 at this point.

Disney will own the other points at OKW and can rent those units cash. They cannot tear down buildings willy nilly that have contracts associated to units therein.

It's one of the big issues at OKW.

I "guesstimated" 20%... I don't know the real number, but it's certainly far less than 50%.

While they can't tear down building "willy nilly"... your contract actually cites specific ownership of a specific unit. There is no guarantee that all units will be available for perpetuity of the contract. In fact, common practice is to declare more units as more points are sold.
DVC has yet to have the reverse situation -- can they "undeclare" units as points revert back. I'm an attorney but this is fairly far from my specialty, so I don't fully know the answer. But as long as they have enough units declared to meet the needs of the points in circulation, I don't believe it's a situation where they can't make changes.

As you said -- Disney will own the other points which they can rent out for cash. If they can rent is to a guest for cash, that's no different than renting it back to themselves for the purpose of re-development. As long as they are buying it back/renting it back from the OKW condo association, no difference between whether they give it to a guest or spend a month renovating it.

 

[sethschroeder]

There very well may be contract issues, but Disney already rents out unused units to cash guests... units get taken out of service for their scheduled refurbishments. So there is no guarantee of every room being available 365 days per year.

Again those rooms taken out for refurbishment are for the current membership benefit or in rare circumstances updates to the cash hotel like at AK Jambo which they have to block off a small number of rooms.

DVC has yet to have the reverse situation -- can they "undeclare" units as points revert back.

When they sell they can sell the specific units they want out to individuals. When they try to revert its unlikely they will own 100% of a unit which corresponds to owning a full building.

Disney also needs to follow rules regarding which rooms it can take for cash. Now they might skirt some rules but right now its easy for them to get away with it without being challenged but actual construction and changes are fairly noticeable. Also fairly certain their books could be audited regarding the finances and additional money from Disney being poured in unlike all other resorts would draw lots of questions.

Like the other points you are making its to far in the future with too much question around it to proactively predict a large change instead of smaller changes occurring which I think are safer bets.

if the resort is suddenly only 20% sold,

20% now is going to grow over time with every new contract they sell its more 2057 points. Plus the closer OKW gets to 2042 the "cheaper" those contracts become and Disney will be able to more easily ROFR and flip those points more quickly.

There is approximately 7.6m points total at OKW which means there are 6m points left to flip between now and 2042 if we go off your 20%.

50% of points would be 2.2m total points sold direct or 8,661 points per month (roughly the August or September direct sales). If they however sold closer to October which was 7064 points they would be around 44% sold out in 2042.

I think its fairly safe to think that Disney will take another stab at current OKW owners though as 2042 approaches to get them to add-on the extra 15 years at a "discount".

It depends on lots of factors. Depends on the degree of the rebuild, depends on the existing structure, etc. As we move to "greener" construction particularly, older buildings may not pass muster. Further, when you get to the point where you want to blow out all the internal walls to change the layout... you want to modernize all the electric, all the plumbing, all the appliances, all the flooring.... you get to the point where you're just keeping the old frame and the concrete poured foundation. At that point, it's cheaper to just start fresh, keeping nothing more than the concrete foundation, then being forced to make the project work within the existing frame.

And none of that will be known for 10-15+ years. Not proactively expecting Disney to take 2 resorts and another building completely out of commission for multiple years until they give us some inclination that that will be the plan.

Imagine it like this... you have an old suit

A resort is not a suit its pretty much the exact opposite because most people never have a suit even altered in their life. The opposite is true with houses and buildings which typically are not leveled but instead are updated/gutted.

 

[RoseGold]

I think its fairly safe to think that Disney will take another stab at current OKW owners though as 2042 approaches to get them to add-on the extra 15 years at a "discount".

This is the worst possible approach. If Disney's legal argument at the time was right, everyone got the extension and it was Disney's responsibility to collect either the $15 or the quitclaim. So, when OKW expires, they have to either put a lien on/foreclose for the $15 or collect it from anyone who didn't comply.

If Disney was wrong, either everyone got the extension and the $15 wasn't enforceable -- or you only got the extension if you paid, and the quitclaim never mattered.

If it now costs $25, then none of these scenarios are right?

 

[sethschroeder]

This is the worst possible approach. If Disney's legal argument at the time was right, everyone got the extension and it was Disney's responsibility to collect either the $15 or the quitclaim. So, when OKW expires, they have to either put a lien on/foreclose for the $15 or collect it from anyone who didn't comply.

If Disney was wrong, either everyone got the extension and the $15 wasn't enforceable -- or you only got the extension if you paid, and the quitclaim never mattered.

If it now costs $25, then none of these scenarios are right?

Plenty of people have either signed the quit claim or will when they buy a resale contract. So they have that group to target.

Plus if they offer a great deal on points through 2057 people might take it to avoid the legal battle that might come in 2042. I suspect lots more will be discussed on it over time.

 

[Bearval]

This is the worst possible approach. If Disney's legal argument at the time was right, everyone got the extension and it was Disney's responsibility to collect either the $15 or the quitclaim. So, when OKW expires, they have to either put a lien on/foreclose for the $15 or collect it from anyone who didn't comply.

If Disney was wrong, either everyone got the extension and the $15 wasn't enforceable -- or you only got the extension if you paid, and the quitclaim never mattered.

If it now costs $25, then none of these scenarios are right?

I think DVD would just let the 2042 contracts expire and not accept dues payments from those who did not sign quit claim deeds or purchase the extension. Owners would have to sue and win to get those remaining 15 years for free while during that time period Disney will be renting the rooms out for cash. In any case it is still 20 years away and that is a long time. I would think during this time period DVD will be ROFR alot of 2042 contracts and reselling them as 2057 for the 2042 contracts that are sold and DVD does not ROFR the owners have to sign the quit claim to transfer the titiles.

 

[RoseGold]

I think DVD would just let the 2042 contracts expire and not accept dues payments from those who did not sign quit claim deeds or purchase the extension. Owners would have to sue and win to get those remaining 15 years for free while during that time period Disney will be renting the rooms out for cash.

You don't have to sue to have lawyers involved. And many lawyers already got involved when Disney threatened to start liens on those who didn't sign the quitclaim. Disney's behavior was pretty gross, as you can see on that thread.

There's an argument that Disney doesn't have the power to place a lien over some extension they made up. There's probably also an argument that they can square this in 2042 with $15, which might be looking a lot better by then. I have no idea if these arguments are true or not, but Disney did back off, which says something.

So now there is a LARGE set of OKW owners who never responded one way or the other, and no one knows what will happen in 2042. This is a mess and won't be happening at Beach Club.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Exactly. Disney is planning long term. Riviera restrictions are not an anomaly. They are the new normal for the next generation of DVC.
Let's remember, for Disney -- Their big profit is when they first open and sell a resort. New profits are minor after the resort is sold out.
They have been opening resorts at Disney approximately every 2-3 years... let's stretch that into the future, starting in the past..
Beach Club -- 2002
Saratoga Spring - 2004
Animal Kingdom - 2007
Bay Lake Tower - 2009
(non WDW Aulani in 2011)
Grand Floridian 2013
Polynesian 2015
Copper Creek 2017
Riviera 2019
Reflections -- planned for 2022, likely delayed but likely not cancelled.

Now, before we get into the future --- Disney can't make big money selling a handful of BLT contracts after right of first refusal. Meanwhile, the resale market has grown huge because there are so many resorts out there. So how can they continue to generate DVC profits??? They need to keep building new resorts. AND, they have to get buyers to buy the new resorts instead of re-sale. Thus, the resale restrictions are critical to Disney, moving forward...

So assume.. Reflections delayed to 2023-2024
2027 ____
2030 ____
2033 ____
2036_____
2039_____

So that's approximately 5 slots they will want to fill in before 2042. Where they going to put them?!? The best WDW real estate already has resorts. Now, I have some suspicions... they might try mod/value based DVC properties where studios run 8-10 points per night. (and rooms are smaller, in lower quality locations). I can imagine a DVC located adjoining Disney Springs.

But really, by the time you hit 2042, there won't be many great locations for DVC expansion.

So do we expect Disney to just say, "ah well, we made huge profits from DVC over the last 50 years, guess that's all done."

No way. Come 2042 -- they get some of the best real estate at all of Disney world returned to them - Beach Club/Boardwalk.
They will take advantage of that. That will be the future of DVC. I can even imagine both BCV and BWV being practically demolished, with a new mega DVC replacing them.
2042 -- BCV/BWV demolition..
2043 -- Renovated OKW
2046 - the new Epcot area resort
2049 - the new Boulder Ridge
etc

The only way they can keep building "new" resorts is if they eventually retire the "old" resorts.



2042 ---

They will not tear down the resorts that costs too much ( look at polynesian villa) . They will refurbish and up the point charts. They will most likely stagger sales to avoid an influx of resorts again. If they stagger it right they will have a constant stream of "new resorts" to sell. So they might do BRR and say that takes 3 or 4 years and HHI which might take around 4to 7 years to sell out then Bwv at another 4 years, then BCV which would probably go in another 3 to 4 years. Now this brings us to SSR time frame which might take another 8 years to sell out. Over that time period Ak and OKW will come into play soon after BLT and ect ect ect.
So no I never see another extension in the horizon for any dvc resort.

 

[havoc315]

Again those rooms taken out for refurbishment are for the current membership benefit or in rare circumstances updates to the cash hotel like at AK Jambo which they have to block off a small number of rooms.



When they sell they can sell the specific units they want out to individuals. When they try to revert its unlikely they will own 100% of a unit which corresponds to owning a full building.

Disney also needs to follow rules regarding which rooms it can take for cash. Now they might skirt some rules but right now its easy for them to get away with it without being challenged but actual construction and changes are fairly noticeable. Also fairly certain their books could be audited regarding the finances and additional money from Disney being poured in unlike all other resorts would draw lots of questions.

Like the other points you are making its to far in the future with too much question around it to proactively predict a large change instead of smaller changes occurring which I think are safer bets.

What are you even talking about?? Nobody is suggesting Disney do anything untoward. It's not hard to negotiate with the condo association to reassign units, so some revert back to Disney. And the reason the condo association would do it -- Because it is for the benefit of the condo association! Pursuant to the quitclaims, Disney will in fact own LOTS of the units.
If there is a massive "points vacancy," ... then OKW owners could see massive annual dues. Selling units back to Disney creates a subsidy for the dues.
If you go to the OKW Condo Association in 2050... and it's a choice of, "$60 annual dues per point to keep all units, or return a quarter of your units for a 2-month refurb, and then your owners can use them until 2057, and then we can keep dues at $10 per point" ---
Hmm, which would the condo association prefer??

20% now is going to grow over time with every new contract they sell its more 2057 points. Plus the closer OKW gets to 2042 the "cheaper" those contracts become and Disney will be able to more easily ROFR and flip those points more quickly.

There is approximately 7.6m points total at OKW which means there are 6m points left to flip between now and 2042 if we go off your 20%.

50% of points would be 2.2m total points sold direct or 8,661 points per month (roughly the August or September direct sales). If they however sold closer to October which was 7064 points they would be around 44% sold out in 2042.

You're assuming there won't be a tail off in direct sales as we get closer to the end of the contract.

I think its fairly safe to think that Disney will take another stab at current OKW owners though as 2042 approaches to get them to add-on the extra 15 years at a "discount".

Because of how the quitclaim was legally structured, that's not a very simple task. All they can really do is offer them a chance to buy new 2042-2057 contracts. And real estate laws can cause difficulty with targeted discounts like that, as opposed to general public offerings.

And none of that will be known for 10-15+ years. Not proactively expecting Disney to take 2 resorts and another building completely out of commission for multiple years until they give us some inclination that that will be the plan.

And that's precisely why I can see them working on semi-major refurbs of OKW *prior* to the expiration in 2057, so you don't have to take it completely out of commission.

A resort is not a suit its pretty much the exact opposite because most people never have a suit even altered in their life. The opposite is true with houses and buildings which typically are not leveled but instead are updated/gutted.

In my experience, buildings are leveled all the time. So not sure what you're talking about.
It's actually funny... I know 1 neighborhood, that was a fairly typical suburb in the 1960's and 1970s, when most of the houses were built. Lots of very 60s-70's style 2000 square foot ranches, colonials, etc. Since then, it has become 1 of the richest and more desired neighborhoods in the country. Whenever 1 of the old houses is sold, 95% of the time, the new owner levels the old building and puts up brand new construction. At best, they keep the original building and add on an extension three times larger, turning the original structure into a garage.

Here is a google street view of the neighborhood:



Go back 5-10 years... all 3 houses would have been similar. But the original houses on the left and right were leveled, with new larger homes build in their place. The middle home is likely to be sold in the coming years, and it will then get leveled and replaced, just like its neighbors.

When talking premium real estate, the land is worth a whole lot more than any structure that sits on top of it. And the Beach Club real estate is some of the most valuable in the world.

 

[sethschroeder]

All the uncertainty is why I am happy with my RIV contract and not needing to worry about any of this for my future with DVC.

Hmm, which would the condo association prefer??

Since its 22 years from now and we have no solid information..... I am going to say its impossible to say what the facts or options will even be by 2042. I just don't see Disney dumping a bunch of extra money in to OKW for 15 years they can't actually sell it as a new resort.

I also have not come across anything stating anything on maintenance fees in 2042 and who is responsible for what. This is without even settling the incoming dispute regarding those who have not signed the quit claim.

You're assuming there won't be a tail off in direct sales as we get closer to the end of the contract.

Wouldn't this point to less reason to invest more money in to OKW until they can do a full 50 year flip?

And that's precisely why I can see them working on semi-major refurbs of OKW *prior* to the expiration in 2057, so you don't have to take it completely out of commission.

Are you forgetting SSR which will expire in 2054 and is the largest resort (other than AUL)? Then you also will have AKV expiring in 2057 with OKW as well. Meaning they will be selling SSR for a number of years. They could easily keep selling SSR, take OKW out of commission completely, and have OKW completely rebuilt before SSR is sold out more than likely.

They could more easily split off Jambo and start selling that right away as well like last time while completely redoing Kidani.

Way to many moving parts that far out to predict so I am going with the simplest explanation of a facelift and selling the resort again. With OKW being an active resort again going with the simplest explanation they do a normal refresh and sell that.

If somehow its way more money to just do a facelift or their studies in 10-15 years point to them making way more money by leveling the resort than that is what they will do I will wait to hear that from Disney though or at least credible rumors.

In my experience, buildings are leveled all the time.

I never said they are never leveled. Plenty information on the aging US home even as the US continues to build new homes. Really depends where you live but old homes do stick in there.

That neighborhood likely is seeing a drastic change to the size of home so makes sense why they might be completely leveled there more often. My point has been I don't automatically see a drastic change coming to BWV/BCV as a whole other than some room configuration changes and as outlined Disney I doubt has started to run any studies on the costs of flipping the resort as of yet that could be leaked so we know what way they were leaning.

https://housemethod.com/home-warranty/median-home-age-us/http://www.oldhouseweb.com/how-to-advice/how-old-are-americas-houses.shtmlhttps://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/historical_data/index.html

 

[havoc315]

All the uncertainty is why I am happy with my RIV contract and not needing to worry about any of this for my future with DVC.



Since its 22 years from now and we have no solid information..... I am going to say its impossible to say what the facts or options will even be by 2042. I just don't see Disney dumping a bunch of extra money in to OKW for 15 years they can't actually sell it as a new resort.

I also have not come across anything stating anything on maintenance fees in 2042 and who is responsible for what. This is without even settling the incoming dispute regarding those who have not signed the quit claim.



Wouldn't this point to less reason to invest more money in to OKW until they can do a full 50 year flip?



Are you forgetting SSR which will expire in 2054 and is the largest resort (other than AUL)? Then you also will have AKV expiring in 2057 with OKW as well. Meaning they will be selling SSR for a number of years. They could easily keep selling SSR, take OKW out of commission completely, and have OKW completely rebuilt before SSR is sold out more than likely.

They could more easily split off Jambo and start selling that right away as well like last time while completely redoing Kidani.

Way to many moving parts that far out to predict so I am going with the simplest explanation of a facelift and selling the resort again. With OKW being an active resort again going with the simplest explanation they do a normal refresh and sell that.

If somehow its way more money to just do a facelift or their studies in 10-15 years point to them making way more money by leveling the resort than that is what they will do I will wait to hear that from Disney though or at least credible rumors.



I never said they are never leveled. Plenty information on the aging US home even as the US continues to build new homes. Really depends where you live but old homes do stick in there.

That neighborhood likely is seeing a drastic change to the size of home so makes sense why they might be completely leveled there more often. My point has been I don't automatically see a drastic change coming to BWV/BCV as a whole other than some room configuration changes and as outlined Disney I doubt has started to run any studies on the costs of flipping the resort as of yet that could be leaked so we know what way they were leaning.

https://housemethod.com/home-warranty/median-home-age-us/http://www.oldhouseweb.com/how-to-advice/how-old-are-americas-houses.shtmlhttps://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/historical_data/index.html

We’ve beaten this to death, so I’ll just be brief.
Your OKW statements miss the point. They can start offering new 50 year contracts at OKW to start the moment the old contracts expire. And if you start a major refurb in 2055 or 2056, you can speed it up, being ready to fully go pretty quickly after the contract expiration. A mere facelift won’t generate massive sellers.

As to Beach Club, I suspect they will want to at least double the number of villas. Mere room reconfiguration won’t accomplish that. Currently, BCV is a mere 2 floors. No “preferred” view rooms... for the most part, not great views. A taller building could give premium views to Epcot and towards the Boardwalk.
Particularly by 2042 when attendance should continue to rise, they will easily be able to sell far more units than the current BCV.
Again, I’m not saying they definitely will level the existing structure. Maybe they will build an attached tower, maybe they will build over and above existing units. But regardless of how it’s executed, I expect a massive increase in the number of units, in addition to making the units bigger and more premium.

 

[SL6827]

There is no way Disney will extend the Beach Club. They are kicking themselves now for the lower points per night needed. I am shocked they haven't done any YCVs yet. I think they might sell out Vero Beach but keep HH.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Of all the resorts I find OKW's future the most fascinating. It a a beautiful, spread out resort with very large rooms. So when all the contracts expire, will Disney have the appetite to keep the current vibe? Will their hunger for bigger profits instead have them knock down the current buildings, not space them out so much, making the rooms smaller, and drastically increasing the points charts? And since we are over 25 years away, could their plans change multiple times as leadership of this division seems to change fairly often? As mentioned above there are a lot of resorts that will be expiring around the same time, so which ones get the love first? Let me see in 2057 I will be 103 year old, unfortunately I will not be around to see what happens. Wish I believed in re incarnation, maybe come back as a Cast Member.

 

[havoc315]

They will not tear down the resorts that costs too much ( look at polynesian villa) . They will refurbish and up the point charts. They will most likely stagger sales to avoid an influx of resorts again. If they stagger it right they will have a constant stream of "new resorts" to sell. So they might do BRR and say that takes 3 or 4 years and HHI which might take around 4to 7 years to sell out then Bwv at another 4 years, then BCV which would probably go in another 3 to 4 years. Now this brings us to SSR time frame which might take another 8 years to sell out. Over that time period Ak and OKW will come into play soon after BLT and ect ect ect.
So no I never see another extension in the horizon for any dvc resort.

Agreed they will likely stagger sells. They do have a history of tearing down in order to build bigger and better resorts that can make more profit.
They tore down one of the Contemporary Garden Wings to build BLT, they tore down a whole section of CBR in order to build the Riviera.

In both cases, where they projected demand for more rooms, they tore down the old structures in order to build new structures with more units.

Personally, for BCV, I'd do something theme like the art deco luxury Miami beach hotels. Maybe a tower with views to the lake and to Epcot, along with a rooftop pool. Double the amount of units, including "penthouse" Garden Villas on the top floors.

 

[Lorana]

Agreed they will likely stagger sells. They do have a history of tearing down in order to build bigger and better resorts that can make more profit.
They tore down one of the Contemporary Garden Wings to build BLT, they tore down a whole section of CBR in order to build the Riviera.

In both cases, where they projected demand for more rooms, they tore down the old structures in order to build new structures with more units.

Personally, for BCV, I'd do something theme like the art deco luxury Miami beach hotels. Maybe a tower with views to the lake and to Epcot, along with a rooftop pool. Double the amount of units, including "penthouse" Garden Villas on the top floors.

I’m also expecting that in 2042 they will convert all or Beach Club to DVC, as they know now that BCV can be a cash cow if they do it right. Leave Yacht as the hotel side for conventions.

 

[havoc315]

I’m also expecting that in 2042 they will convert all or Beach Club to DVC, as they know now that BCV can be a cash cow if they do it right. Leave Yacht as the hotel side for conventions.

It's possible.. I'm sure they have already started to map out long term possibilities though I'm sure it's dependent on many future factors.

DVC is a cash-infusion... huge cash infusion over first 2-3 years, then nothing really. A successful resort is a continuous revenue generator, so they really want both.

They have often converted to DVC where they have had excess inventory of deluxe rooms. They have priced their deluxe resorts so high, they do often have trouble filling them. And DVC can be more profitable than renting out rooms at a steep discount. So if, come the last 2030's, they are maintaining extremely high booking rates at Beach Club, then they won't convert -- they will simply build in addition. If occupancy rates are struggling, then they might convert the existing Beach Club.

 

[DaveNan]

I expect them to start selling the 2042 resorts "early". Once you get inside of 5 years the resale prices will drop. Disney will exercise ROFR and sell a new contracts starting in 2042, but you will get "early access" from the expiring points they have. This way they won't discount the price , but you will get "free" years on the front of the contract. "Buy now (in say 2039) and you get bonus points till 2042", when your contract starts. Those points would have BCV home status and convert to you new contract in 2042. This means they start selling in the 2042 resorts as early as 2037. So, if RR takes until 2025 and Reflections until 2028, there's only a 9 year gap to fill.... They will "guarantee a refresh by 204X".

 

[sethschroeder]

Your OKW statements miss the point. They can start offering new 50 year contracts at OKW to start the moment the old contracts expire. And if you start a major refurb in 2055 or 2056, you can speed it up, being ready to fully go pretty quickly after the contract expiration. A mere facelift won’t generate massive sellers.

• If they refurb in 2042-48 by 2057 that refurb will be old
• In 2055/56 its unlikely Disney owns a majority of points, no way Disney is sitting on points for 15 years from 2042 until 2057
• Membership has no benefit of giving up capacity so Disney can sell something in 2057 (end of life of resorts may have excess points and a shortage of rooms)
• What is the language about Disney taking back contracts and MFs? (why ever resell anything if Disney can saddle membership with all the MFs on contracts they take back, so I don't personally believe Disney can saddle membership with all those extra MFs)
• There is no guarantee Disney can get those who didn't sign the quit claim to give up their contract
• To far out to give an accurate guess at Disney ownership % of OWK in 2042
• In 2054 SSR will expire and it took them 5 years to sell out the first time (Aug 2003 - July 2008), which means it wouldn't sell out until 2059 or 2 years after OKW 1.0 ends
• In 2057 AKV will expire and if they need a quick refurb it can be Jambo which is attached to the Hotel side and could be done starting in the Hotel Rooms in 2055/56 with 2057 being the refurb on Jambo DVC having it complete for a 2058 opening date if SSR somehow sold out dramatically faster than SSR 1.0

 

[havoc315]

• If they refurb in 2042-48 by 2057 that refurb will be old
• In 2055/56 its unlikely Disney owns a majority of points, no way Disney is sitting on points for 15 years from 2042 until 2057
• Membership has no benefit of giving up capacity so Disney can sell something in 2057 (end of life of resorts may have excess points and a shortage of rooms)
• What is the language about Disney taking back contracts and MFs? (why ever resell anything if Disney can saddle membership with all the MFs on contracts they take back, so I don't personally believe Disney can saddle membership with all those extra MFs)
• There is no guarantee Disney can get those who didn't sign the quit claim to give up their contract

This is the type of thing you're saying which makes no sense. No guarantee Disney can get those who didn't sign the quitclaim to give up their contract?!?! Huh? Where did I suggest anybody would be simply asked to "give up" their contract?!?!
I did say contracts could be modified to reassign units, to consolidate the units that are under contract.
That can probably be done by the Condo association's agreement.
But if it did require consent of individual owners, a "guarantee" that people would accept modification is a non-issue. You offer an incentive, people are free to accept or reject the incentive. If the incentive is big enough, enough people will accept it, to make it work. The end.

And membership would get a HUGE benefit from giving up capacity for a month... they could get far superior facilities to use for the last year of their contract. And less unused points means lower annual dues.
Yes, Disney does indirectly saddle membership with the maintenance fees on unsold points -- Did a full analysis recently. That's why recent resorts open with relatively high dues, but then they don't increase much the first few years -- Because as more points are sold, the costs are spread out over more people.

Example, Riviera is only about 25% sold right now. But budget for housekeeping is $6.7 million.
Riviera is similar in size to BLT. So in theory, since Riviera is only 25% sold, and BLT is nearly 100% sold, BLT maintenance fees should be 4x the Riviera..

-- yet, Housekeeping at BLT is $8.8 million. Only about 25% more than Riviera..
Per point.. a Riviera owner pays $2.20 for housekeeping. But a BLT owner only pays $1.54 per point for housekeeping.
Are Riviera rooms 42% more expensive to clean than BLT rooms? Or... more likely, are BLT owners benefiting from spreading costs out over more points??

 

[sethschroeder]

No guarantee Disney can get those who didn't sign the quitclaim to give up their contract?!?! Huh? Where did I suggest anybody would be simply asked to "give up" their contract?!?!

Except then where are you getting Disney owning such a large chunk of the resort? Do you have numbers on how many people have signed quit claims with a 2042 expiration at this point? Do you know what will happen with those who haven't signed the quit claim.

Again plenty of people have these discussions and I have not heard any definitive "this is exactly what will happen" or how many people exactly are in which of the ownership groups (2057 vs 2042 signed quit claim vs 2042 didn't sign quit claim). Every discussion seems to be left with no real answers as to what happens.

I did say contracts could be modified to reassign units, to consolidate the units that are under contract.
That can probably be done by the Condo association's agreement.

Except again Disney has to book those rooms they cant just randomly take rooms. They are required for the most part to book at 11 months like everyone else except in certain circumstances at which point rooms won't be booked and they can take for breakage income.

But if it did require consent of individual owners, a "guarantee" that people would accept modification is a non-issue. You offer an incentive, people are free to accept or reject the incentive. If the incentive is big enough, enough people will accept it, to make it work. The end.

But why offer an incentive when they don't need the resort ready to sell right away in 2057? Again as pointed out you have SSR expiring in 2054 (5 year sales cycle first time) and AKV in 2057 (7 year sales cycle first time). There will be plenty of capacity in SSR alone to be selling points through 2057/58.

So ask yourself why does OKW matter to sell right away when they will have SSR still selling?

And membership would get a HUGE benefit from giving up capacity for a month... they could get far superior facilities to use for the last year of their contract. And less unused points means lower annual dues.

For 1 year? Again if its in 2042 they are doing this update then it will be "old" by the time the resort expires and they need to sell the next 50 year contract.

Instead like I said Disney will take the money they have in the "bank" that is marked for the refurb. I don't see them dumping a bunch of extra money in to a resort for a 15 year contract sale then doing it all over again in 2057 for a 50 year contract sale.

Example, Riviera is only about 25% sold right now. But budget for housekeeping is $6.7 million.
Riviera is similar in size to BLT. So in theory, since Riviera is only 25% sold, and BLT is nearly 100% sold, BLT maintenance fees should be 4x the Riviera..

All this says is what happens as resort rooms are declared and have yet to be sold. What does the contract state about contracts either surrendered by owners, ended, or ROFR?

Again though no idea on Disney ownership % in 2042 anyways so I will move on from this conversation at this point. I think the OP got the BCV answer that its unlikely an extension will occur except possibly some presales in to BCV 2.0 if that happens.