Beach Club extending contract date??

[TCRAIG]

If they’re that strapped for cash, they’d sell HHI and Vero - while I would love a Beach Club extension - I can’t see that happening.

 

[fgaini]

i mostly agree... but suspect it will be more than a slap of paint.
It’s the BEST real estate at Disney outside of Magic Kingdom resorts. It books super solid for Epcot Festivals.

They will take the time for a major re-build or renovation. Add more rooms. Upgrade the rooms so to demand even higher prices.

Tend to agree. They will upgrade and resale. No need to extend.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Tend to agree. They will upgrade and resale. No need to extend.

I too agree. What if a total upgrade renovation you could add say 20% more rooms? Nobody really knows what the price point will be in 25 years. We do know that the points charts only continue to increase. We are not talking about millions in profit, but quite possibly a billion. Do the math and it gets scary on what the future could hold on this property. Disney probably cannot wait for 2042 to put whatever plans it has into action.

 

[CarolMN]

converting a wing of Yacht club could be an easy next resort. Especially considering how much Epcot is getting upgraded right now.

Might be an easy convert, but the YC is an important part of the profitable convention business. I don't think a DVC conversion is very high on the list of future options. Might not even be on the list at all.

 

[pasealfondo9]

I too agree. What if a total upgrade renovation you could add say 20% more rooms? Nobody really knows what the price point will be in 25 years. We do know that the points charts only continue to increase. We are not talking about millions in profit, but quite possibly a billion. Do the math and it gets scary on what the future could hold on this property. Disney probably cannot wait for 2042 to put whatever plans it has into action.

Very interesting take. Resale restrictions on RIV do make a lot of sense based on these arguments right? DVC is really thinking long term on this issue. Everybody enjoy your 2042 contracts while you still have them. 20+ years for your current contracts is not a bad deal.

 

[havoc315]

Very interesting take. Resale restrictions on RIV do make a lot of sense based on these arguments right? DVC is really thinking long term on this issue. Everybody enjoy your 2042 contracts while you still have them. 20+ years for your current contracts is not a bad deal.

Exactly. Disney is planning long term. Riviera restrictions are not an anomaly. They are the new normal for the next generation of DVC.
Let's remember, for Disney -- Their big profit is when they first open and sell a resort. New profits are minor after the resort is sold out.
They have been opening resorts at Disney approximately every 2-3 years... let's stretch that into the future, starting in the past..
Beach Club -- 2002
Saratoga Spring - 2004
Animal Kingdom - 2007
Bay Lake Tower - 2009
(non WDW Aulani in 2011)
Grand Floridian 2013
Polynesian 2015
Copper Creek 2017
Riviera 2019
Reflections -- planned for 2022, likely delayed but likely not cancelled.

Now, before we get into the future --- Disney can't make big money selling a handful of BLT contracts after right of first refusal. Meanwhile, the resale market has grown huge because there are so many resorts out there. So how can they continue to generate DVC profits??? They need to keep building new resorts. AND, they have to get buyers to buy the new resorts instead of re-sale. Thus, the resale restrictions are critical to Disney, moving forward...

So assume.. Reflections delayed to 2023-2024
2027 ____
2030 ____
2033 ____
2036_____
2039_____

So that's approximately 5 slots they will want to fill in before 2042. Where they going to put them?!? The best WDW real estate already has resorts. Now, I have some suspicions... they might try mod/value based DVC properties where studios run 8-10 points per night. (and rooms are smaller, in lower quality locations). I can imagine a DVC located adjoining Disney Springs.

But really, by the time you hit 2042, there won't be many great locations for DVC expansion.

So do we expect Disney to just say, "ah well, we made huge profits from DVC over the last 50 years, guess that's all done."

No way. Come 2042 -- they get some of the best real estate at all of Disney world returned to them - Beach Club/Boardwalk.
They will take advantage of that. That will be the future of DVC. I can even imagine both BCV and BWV being practically demolished, with a new mega DVC replacing them.
2042 -- BCV/BWV demolition..
2043 -- Renovated OKW
2046 - the new Epcot area resort
2049 - the new Boulder Ridge
etc

The only way they can keep building "new" resorts is if they eventually retire the "old" resorts.



2042 ---

 

[RoseGold]

There are plenty of ideas for DVC to print money after whatever goes in Reflections's spot: Poly Tower, BLT2, Coronado adjacent, Yacht Club parking lot. The skyliner expansion to Coronado could naturally add in some mediocre location Coronado2 property, like RIV to CBR. This would also work for an All-Stars Skyliner expansion, also a no-brainer to streamline transportation.

SSR is so big that there needs to be a lot of points in 2057 ready for that one to retire. The question is size. RIV was so much bigger than BR, Poly, VGF, so it will be interesting to see if there are some smaller, more special resorts or if they stick to huge business hotel like RIV, and move those points. Reflections was supposed to also be huge.

I disagree that OKW will be renovated. I think they spend as little on it as possible, because of all the issues with the extension.

 

[pasealfondo9]

Exactly. Disney is planning long term. Riviera restrictions are not an anomaly. They are the new normal for the next generation of DVC.
Let's remember, for Disney -- Their big profit is when they first open and sell a resort. New profits are minor after the resort is sold out.
They have been opening resorts at Disney approximately every 2-3 years... let's stretch that into the future, starting in the past..
Beach Club -- 2002
Saratoga Spring - 2004
Animal Kingdom - 2007
Bay Lake Tower - 2009
(non WDW Aulani in 2011)
Grand Floridian 2013
Polynesian 2015
Copper Creek 2017
Riviera 2019
Reflections -- planned for 2022, likely delayed but likely not cancelled.

Now, before we get into the future --- Disney can't make big money selling a handful of BLT contracts after right of first refusal. Meanwhile, the resale market has grown huge because there are so many resorts out there. So how can they continue to generate DVC profits??? They need to keep building new resorts. AND, they have to get buyers to buy the new resorts instead of re-sale. Thus, the resale restrictions are critical to Disney, moving forward...

So assume.. Reflections delayed to 2023-2024
2027 ____
2030 ____
2033 ____
2036_____
2039_____

So that's approximately 5 slots they will want to fill in before 2042. Where they going to put them?!? The best WDW real estate already has resorts. Now, I have some suspicions... they might try mod/value based DVC properties where studios run 8-10 points per night. (and rooms are smaller, in lower quality locations). I can imagine a DVC located adjoining Disney Springs.

But really, by the time you hit 2042, there won't be many great locations for DVC expansion.

So do we expect Disney to just say, "ah well, we made huge profits from DVC over the last 50 years, guess that's all done."

No way. Come 2042 -- they get some of the best real estate at all of Disney world returned to them - Beach Club/Boardwalk.
They will take advantage of that. That will be the future of DVC. I can even imagine both BCV and BWV being practically demolished, with a new mega DVC replacing them.
2042 -- BCV/BWV demolition..
2043 -- Renovated OKW
2046 - the new Epcot area resort
2049 - the new Boulder Ridge
etc

The only way they can keep building "new" resorts is if they eventually retire the "old" resorts.



2042 ---

Now, where could they put those new 4-5 resorts before 2042? I can only think of one location by the seven seas lagoon... what else?

 

[havoc315]

Now, where could they put those new 4-5 resorts before 2042? I can only think of one location by the seven seas lagoon... what else?

As I suggested, some wild speculative guesses:

-Mod/value based resorts that you can put anywhere. (For that matter, OKW and SSR are also non-premium locations)
- I can see appeal to a Disney Springs located DVC property.
-Still room between Contemporary and Polynesian
-Could build north of Magic Kingdom and create a back door, like the International Gateway at Epcot.
-space southeast of DHS

 

[_auroraborealis_]

They really cannot renovate OKW and do a new DVC. The other issue with the extension is deeds that are 2057 are atached to units all over the resort. You cannot just tear down a building with 2057 deeds.

 

[Ginamarie]

So this leads me to another aspect of the conversation.
IF you love Beach Club/Boardwalk area and suspect these will turn into DVC2 properties 2-3 years after the 2042 end date.. does this make the Rivera resale points a better value? You can pick up Riviera resale for like 140-145/point now. Sure- this means a bunch of time where you can only use those points at Riviera, but if Reflections is just a few years out, and then something else new every few years and THEN those Epcot properties turn into DVC2.. those Riviera resale points are going to be worth a lot more than 145/point.

 

[sethschroeder]

No way. Come 2042 -- they get some of the best real estate at all of Disney world returned to them - Beach Club/Boardwalk.
They will take advantage of that. That will be the future of DVC. I can even imagine both BCV and BWV being practically demolished, with a new mega DVC replacing them.
2042 -- BCV/BWV demolition..
2043 -- Renovated OKW
2046 - the new Epcot area resort
2049 - the new Boulder Ridge
etc

Personally:

• OKW will not get a renovation before 2057, they will just keep flipping the resort and make it cheaper if needed
• They will not demolish and instead will do quicker updates to BCV/BWV than building from scratch (only reason to level the buildings is if they are building bigger towers which I doubt)
• I also think Disney pre-sells the 2042 flipped resorts where if you buy BWV 2.0 you get BWV 1.0 points to use the last 1-2-3 years before your new resort comes online (either out of ROFR or Disney's points that they use for "cash" rooms)

Now, where could they put those new 4-5 resorts before 2042? I can only think of one location by the seven seas lagoon... what else?

Tons of locations

• Between VGF/MK on new walking path
• Convert remainder of WL Cash Rooms
• Finish Reflections
• Between Epcot/Magic Kingdom
• "Front side" of Epcot
• Yacht Club (Parking lot or conversion)
• Boardwalk Parking Lot by Tennis Court
• CBR (Aruba - other side of RIV Skyliner)
• DVC Value (Pop/AOA conversion to a AKV Value style resort - lower buy in cheaper rooms)
• Coronado (on new Skyliner between EPCOT and AK)
• 5th Gate Hotel (yes basically 0% chance at this point in next 20 years)

 

[sethschroeder]

So this leads me to another aspect of the conversation.
IF you love Beach Club/Boardwalk area and suspect these will turn into DVC2 properties 2-3 years after the 2042 end date.. does this make the Rivera resale points a better value? You can pick up Riviera resale for like 140-145/point now. Sure- this means a bunch of time where you can only use those points at Riviera, but if Reflections is just a few years out, and then something else new every few years and THEN those Epcot properties turn into DVC2.. those Riviera resale points are going to be worth a lot more than 145/point.

I don't think they take 2-3 years to flip those resorts. I think RIV is going to be the least expensive Epcot area resort in 23 years though.

Take a look at Poly (BCV), BLT (BWV), and CCV (RIV) for a comparison in how much the point requirements are going to change above RIV. Also BWV/BCV are going to be much more expensive as well.

I think I will be laughing in 20 years at how much more expensive those resorts are than RIV and how good of a deal I got on RIV.

 

[pasealfondo9]

So this leads me to another aspect of the conversation.
IF you love Beach Club/Boardwalk area and suspect these will turn into DVC2 properties 2-3 years after the 2042 end date.. does this make the Rivera resale points a better value? You can pick up Riviera resale for like 140-145/point now. Sure- this means a bunch of time where you can only use those points at Riviera, but if Reflections is just a few years out, and then something else new every few years and THEN those Epcot properties turn into DVC2.. those Riviera resale points are going to be worth a lot more than 145/point.

That´s an interesting take... So maybe RIV would be a good investment in the (very) long term. 15-20 years from now having bought RIV at $145 would have been a steal. Never looked at it this way. Do you agree?

 

[Ginamarie]

That´s an interesting take... So maybe RIV would be a good investment in the (very) long term. 15-20 years from now having bought RIV at $145 would have been a steal. Never look at it this way. Do you agree?

Yeah- I'm always looking long term. We have a contract waiting for ROFR now at Saratoga. I didn't want to consider the BC/BW properties because even though I like them, they're more expensive per point and have fewer years. (I don't mind staying at SS/OKW) I love that the Riviera contracts go out until 2070, and if they're the same price point as BC/BW- there's a lot more potential for those later years on the contract.

 

[havoc315]

Personally:

• OKW will not get a renovation before 2057, they will just keep flipping the resort and make it cheaper if needed
• They will not demolish and instead will do quicker updates to BCV/BWV than building from scratch (only reason to level the buildings is if they are building bigger towers which I doubt)
• I also think Disney pre-sells the 2042 flipped resorts where if you buy BWV 2.0 you get BWV 1.0 points to use the last 1-2-3 years before your new resort comes online (either out of ROFR or Disney's points that they use for "cash" rooms)

They are contractually required to renovate every 14 years, so OKW definitely will get renovations before 2057. With so many OKW contracts expiring in 2042, they have more room to shut down parts of the property for more significant renovation, helping them sell more "new" contracts. Talking renovation here -- not massive re-build. Just more than an average refresh. Enough to maybe get "new" buyers willing to spend $180-190 per point (in 2020 dollars).

I expect MUCH more than a refresh at BWV/BCV -- That area actually sells out the most often. So there is more demand than supply. So yes -- towers or larger buildings, nicer rooms and amenities.
They will want to maximize their profits by more rooms AND more points. More points means higher point chart. But you can't JUST increase the point chart. At Boardwalk, a 1 bedroom preferred goes for about 42 points per night, and is 712 square feet. At Grand Floridian, a 1 bedroom lake view is about 62 points per night and 844 square feet. At Riviera, a 1 bedroom is 812 square feet and about 60 points per night.
You can't just increase the "price" of a Boardwalk Villa from 40 points to 60 points overnight in 2042... People will rightfully rebel, "why should I pay Grand Floridian prices for a much smaller and lower quality room??"
So if they want to maximize points and rooms -- it will take a lot more than a fresh coat of paint.
That's not to say they will demolish everything existing, but there are lots of possibilities between total demolition and minor renovation. For example, they can do some new construction of much nicer units on the land between current BCV and Epcot, while also doing some major renovation and reconstruction of the existing BCV rooms.

What you suggest about pre-selling with "bridge points" does make sense. I could see it happening to some degree, but it's not really possible to do it in any big way. Remember -- those resorts are currently "sold out." The only points Disney has to sell are those that are purchased through ROFR. So they could only give BWV 1.0 points buy re-purchasing a ROFR contract from an existing owner. Giving away cash rooms -- only really makes sense if Disney is having trouble filling those rooms with cash.
More likely -- I can certainly see existing owners being given a generous pre-sale discount. (Your contract expires in 2042... it's now 2041, we will give you a 20% "add on" discount for any current ongoing resort. Or we will give you a chance to buy BWV 2.0, opening in 2044/2045 at a 20% discount.)

 

[RoseGold]

You can't just increase the "price" of a Boardwalk Villa from 40 points to 60 points overnight in 2042... People will rightfully rebel, "why should I pay Grand Floridian prices for a much smaller and lower quality room??"

Of course you can. Say the same sentence with BLT and RIV and smaller with worse location. Because that's what happened.

RIV already eclipsed a 10 year old point chart on a property with a far superior location. I bet the VGF chart is eclipsed by 2030, or whatever comes after Reflections. 2042 will be even more.

And, like BCV/BWV right now, the legacy point charts on the small, charming resorts with good locations will look more and more appealing.

 

[JrdnSpritzer]

If the price is right, and given my age (nearly 40) I'd be sorely tempted to pick-up some resale BWV/BCV, knowing we'd only have them for twenty years. We'd have our RIV for long-term and some resale BWV/BCV for Food and Wine.

 

[sethschroeder]

They are contractually required to renovate every 14 years, so OKW definitely will get renovations before 2057.

There is a huge difference between a normal facelift of rooms and calling it a resort renovation. A hardgoods refresh is very much different than a resort renovation. What they will do is the normal refresh they do at all resorts nothing "special".

With so many OKW contracts expiring in 2042, they have more room to shut down parts of the property for more significant renovation, helping them sell more "new" contracts.

No, no they won't. They will have 15 years left in the resort at which point they will need to flip 100% of the resort. Disney is not putting more than the expected amount of money in to the resort.

But you can't JUST increase the point chart.

Yes you can and it won't be exactly the same resort either.

You can't just increase the "price" of a Boardwalk Villa from 40 points to 60 points overnight in 2042... People will rightfully rebel, "why should I pay Grand Floridian prices for a much smaller and lower quality room??"

Because VGF will be 28 years old and over half way through its lifespan on the contract. It won't be a lower quality room by any extent.

To be very clear you don't need to rip down a full resort to redo it and vastly upgrade it. They will strip the inside completely and likely move walls but keep the base structure likely to the resort. Now I can absolutely see them leveling the VWL but I can't see them leveling BWV and BCV at the same time and taking years to rebuild them.

People are buying 22 year contracts for $200 BWV and $230 BCV currently on the direct side. That essentially is like paying $400+/point because of how short the contract is.

 

[havoc315]

Of course you can. Say the same sentence with BLT and RIV and smaller with worse location. Because that's what happened.

RIV already eclipsed a 10 year old point chart on a property with a far superior location. I bet the VGF chart is eclipsed by 2030, or whatever comes after Reflections. 2042 will be even more.

Perfect example and proves my point. The Riviera rooms are a fair bit nicer and bigger than BLT. Location advantage goes slightly to BLT, though plenty of people love the Skyliner access to Epcot and DHS.
That's why they can offer pretty similar charts, Riviera slightly higher... skyliner to 2 parks, and better rooms than BLT.

Let's compare:
I'll use today's date for comparison, November 17th:
BLT studio is only 339 feet and sleeps only 4 people. Riviera studio 423 feet and sleeps 5 people. So the Riviera studio is HUGE compared to the BLT studio, and sleeps an extra person.

BLT theme park view studio - 21 points. Lake view studio -- 18 points. Standard -- 15 points.
Riviera -- Tower studio (sleeps only 2) 12 points. Standard view studio -- 16 points. Preferred view -- 20 points.

So.... a BLT studio with "view" is actually 1 point more expensive than a Riviera "view" studio -- Despite being a much smaller room!
Standard views for both -- Riviera is only 1 point more than BLT, despite offering a much bigger nicer room.

So now, you can't just increase the point chart while offering smaller and worse rooms. The whole reason that Riviera can offer a point chart similar to BLT, while being in a slightly inferior location, is because of vastly superior rooms.

Extending the comparison -- the "view" Grand Villa at Riviera, tonight, is 108 points. The "view" Grand Villa at BLT is 106 points tonight. BLT Grand Villa -- a tiny 2044 sf. Riviera Grand Villa -- 2530 sf.
So the Riviera GV is a mere 2 points more expensive than the BLT... but 400 sf bigger!

Now imagine the Riviera offered the tiny rooms of the BLT, BCV or BWV -- it would then have a much lower point chart.