Attendance in this economy? Really????

[DanenRox]

well when you consider that this year 1,2 or 3 were not on the charts - they are definitely saying less people will be there.

they had very few 4's this year.

At the risk of sounding argumentative, I beg to differ. I have referred to crowd predictors pretty regularly when planning our trips and 3's were not hard to come by in off-seasons. It was fairly easy to put together of week of 3,4,5's if one could travel in Sept/Jan and didn't mind fluctuating weather patterns. For example, as recently as this past September crowd predictions were lower than what they're estimating for next September. I'm puzzled.

 

[eporter66]

Disney for a lot of folks is a pre-paid vacation. Arrangements were made months ago so they will still attend. Next year is when you will really see a slow down for cash Guests.

DVC will not be hit as hard on reservations but you will continue seeing people selling their contracts at low prices just to get rid of them.

I would have to agree with both thoughts here. We just got back from WDW (10/18-10/24) and it was the most crowded we have ever seen October. But, as mentioned, these vacations were planned many months (even a year or more) in advance. October was always a fairly slow time when we had visited previously.

People are going to take the vacations they already paid for. I would imagine that attendance will sink over the coming months.

 

[kimberh]

We had friends go in Oct, she said they had one 20 min line. I think that is a pretty slow crowd. The last time we went in Oct, I was shocked at how crowded it was. With the discounts that I am seeing come out now, I think Disney is getting ready. I feel that we will wait and take advantage of one of them. We leave Sat for Europe. This trip has been planned for months, way before the economy turned. I sure would not have planned it now. Since it was already paid for, we are taking it. I think the same thing is happening for Disney, 2009 will tell the tale.

 

[hakepb]

Although some of the slow-dowm may be offset by locals, that instead of taking a ski-trip, stay close and go to WDW.

 

[Brian Noble]

I have referred to crowd predictors pretty regularly when planning our trips and 3's were not hard to come by in off-seasons.

There has been year-over-year growth, but it's been modest---in the single percentages per year. But, Len changed the way he rated crowds 2-3 years ago; you can't compare crowd calendar numbers from before and after, because the formulas are completely different, and the numbers mean different things.

For reference, here are the resort-wide attendance figures from the last several years for all four parks. These are compiled from a report that was originally done by a publication called Amusement Business Today. That publication is defunct, but the Themed Entertainment Assn. together with Economics Research Associates have carried the torch since then. A fan site carries the summaries.

http://www.coastergrotto.com/theme-park-attendance.jsp

2003: 37.7 Million guests
2004: 40.7M, 8% growth
2005: 42.9M, 5.4%
2006: 45M, 4.8%
2007: 46.9M, 4.2%

These are mostly unique guest-days. Disney counts parkhoppers as only one for that day (attributed to the first park visited). But, I suspect that guests attending hard-ticket events plus regular park operating hours count as 2. So, to the extent to which the parties have grown (and they have) the numbers above probably over-estimate the daily gate.

Disney has also gotten very good at marketing periods when the kids are in school to other groups, reducing seasonal differences. The halloween and christmas parties have been very successful in attracting guests to previously slow times, as has Food & Wine. Flower & Garden hasn't done quite as well. Of course, some of that is cannibalized from summer, but some is new travel as well.

 

[DanenRox]

Interesting Mr Noble, thank you.

 

[Brian Noble]

I also think there is a lot of merit to the idea that because vacations are planned at least a month or so in advance, any economy-induced drop off hasn't quite hit yet.

I don't think the gas price spike over the summer made a big difference to most people. After all, even someone driving a full day to get to WDW is driving only about 1,000 miles round trip. Figure 20mpg, and an extra $2/gal adds only $100 to a trip---not a deal breaker, though there was a lot of pessimism.

The stock market collapse didn't really start until late September, and didn't feel "real" to a lot of people until a week or two after that. That's been a much bigger deal psychologically, and I don't think it's worked it's way through leisure travel just yet.

 

[gray52]

I think also that you have to factor in the parks themselves. Most of us saw a drop off in the other parks when Animal Kingdom opened. A new park nobody had seen yet. Now that thrill is gone, and coupled with more and more people going to WDW, the parks are more crowded.
We used to go every January or February and/or October... after last years October trip, we'll never return during that month. It wasn't July crowds or Christmas week crowds, but it was tight.

1992 – Off Site
1995 – Dixie Landings (Honeymoon)
1997 – Off site
2000 – Villas at Disney Institute
2001 - Swan
2002 – CSR
2003 – Off site
2006 – POFQ
2007 – CBR
2008 – Disneyland (Hotel Del Coronado)
2009 – OKW/POFQ

 

[PSU]

Funny, guess it depends on perspective....my DH and I are considering DVC solely because we have visited in Oct the past two years and fell in love with the F&W festival....Crowds at the park were there, but we mixed it up with food and golf...The weather was great- not too hot and warm enough to really enjoy a swim after being out for a few hours....

 

[Brian Noble]

I found some more annual totals:
http://www.scottware.com.au/theme/feature/atend_disparks.htm

Interestingly, Animal Kingdom had a surprisingly small cannibalism impact. In 1997, before AK opened:

MK: 17M
EP: 10.1M
DS: 10.4M
Total: 37.5

in 1999, the first full year of AK's operation:

MK: 15.2
EP: 10.1
DS: 8.7
AK: 8.6

The non-AK total 34M (3.5M drop--about 10%) was more than made up with AK's 8.6M guests. The Resort-wide total that year was 42.6M.

9/11 had a much bigger impact on attendance.

2000: 43.2M
2001: 39.7M (-3.5%)
2002: 37.6M (-5.3%)

So, resort-wide attendance was back to 1997 levels, but with one extra gate to spread the guests through!

 

[OneMoreTry]

Disney will provide perks to DVC members if they begin to see a drop-off in our on-site spending. Yes, they know we are going to stay there on a regular basis. But Disney does not really make any money off our being there. Just like they make no money from the millions of locals. UNLESS we/they choose to go to WDW and spend.

Just like the locals, we are a "captive" audience. We are already there, so they don't need to entice us to make the trip or spend lots on lodging. And they know our savings on lodging gives us extra to spend on food, wine and merchandise.

So if they want to increase their revenue stream and they calculate that offering locals or DVCers a special deal will generate increased profit, they will conisder doing that.

IMHO

 

[Sully]

I tried making ADR for Feb. 14, 2009, Valentines Day at The California Grill today and nothing is available until late in the evening. Sounds like the economy is doing just fine.

 

[gracelrm]

This doesn't directly relate to future attendance and the economy, but during my trip earlier in October, I sure did notice a large number of people wearing "1st Visit" buttons. I mentioned it to my DH and he said he had noticed that as well and the economy & high gas/airline prices didn't appear to be keeping many new people at home. Our family also traveled out west in June 08 and the Natl. Parks that we visited were certainly staying pretty crowded. I know in our own circumstances - we had planned a 3-week trip out west and I was concerned that we needed to cut it short or not go at all due to the economy. DH's opinion was that things might get much worse in years to come - so we better go while we can. Maybe many people have that same idea - it's bad now, but it might be worse down the road - so lets go while it's possible.

Just a thought!

 

[mikeandkarla]

So I've re-up'd our subscription to another Disney site...this one predicts crowd levels for the coming year (among other things). In the next 12 mos, there are TWO DAYS they've predicted crowds at a "3"...(on a scale 1-10 with 10 = longer waits at major attractions). The remainder of the year, including brisk January to Hurricane-laden September, are 4's and higher! Really? Are they really predicting more crowds, higher attendance in the coming year...in this economy? Really?

I also have a subscription to that website. the crowd ranking numbers I think your looking at are a history of attendance for that particular day, not necessarily a prediction at the upcoming year with the state of the economy being a factor.

 

[eliza61]

I just priced out our January trip and I was SHOCKED to find that I need to budget over $3500 for 5 nights - this is with park tickets for my adult kids and the basic DDP, cab fares on the couple of occasions we won't use buses, tip $$, a festive dinner to celebrate a special occasion at Yachtsman Steakhouse (not using the DDP for that, using AP DDE), a supermarket visit for a few items, and RT car service for the airport, also just a couple hundred for spending money. Add in the airfare and we're up around $4500 I'm thinking this is alot for 5 people 5 days.....I think we'll curtail our visits and go less often after the two trips I've got booked.

Is January high season (I know it is for the Carribean, you know everyone wanted to escape the cold) That may account for the price. But thruthfully Diane, $3500 dollars breaks down to less than $150 per person, per day. That's not outrageous for meals & tickets. Not sure you could do NYC or Washington DC on 150/day including meals. I know that does absolutely nothing for the sticker shock.

 

[jakenjess]

Disney will provide perks to DVC members if they begin to see a drop-off in our on-site spending. Yes, they know we are going to stay there on a regular basis. But Disney does not really make any money off our being there. Just like they make no money from the millions of locals. UNLESS we/they choose to go to WDW and spend.

Just like the locals, we are a "captive" audience. We are already there, so they don't need to entice us to make the trip or spend lots on lodging. And they know our savings on lodging gives us extra to spend on food, wine and merchandise.

So if they want to increase their revenue stream and they calculate that offering locals or DVCers a special deal will generate increased profit, they will conisder doing that.

IMHO

I remember our guide telling us this when we bought in, that, although of course they're making money off us buying into DVC, it's really all the money that we spend while we're there on food, park tickets, etc., etc., where they make even more. It makes sense. It will be interesting to see what happens with crowd levels. We're going in April, our first time over a school vacation (though it's not Easter week like a lot of places, it's the week after). I'm hoping it's not TOO crazy!

 

[bonrea]

I'm one of the few people who don't think there's going to be a major down turn at disney (probably the sociologist in me)

• -Generally in bad times, people turn to "vices" to escape. that's why Vegas, AC, movies, theme parks tend to do well compared to other industries in tough times. People need to escape.
• -Disney is still a good "bang for your buck". Research any other vacations lately? I live on the east coast, let me tell you a week at one of the Jersey or Md shore beaches can easily set you back a couple of grand. $ for $ disney is still competitive. Throw in the ddp or free dining and for a vacation it's not so bad.
• -Disney does an excellent job marketing how affordable it can be. Throw in AAA or a code discount and a family of 4 can do disney pretty darn cheap.
• -Working folks tend to have a do or die attitude (or maybe it's just me. LOL) barring total job loss, I'm going to do a vacation. It may not be big but generally I will eat ramien noodles for months, cut back as much as humanly possible before I give up a vacation. Lastly regardless to what we think about it, people have and will charge vacations. I've done it before and while not the smartest move, I'm not going to be a hypocrite and throw stones at others who do.

I think there's going to be a slight slow down but I wouldn't count on getting into the GF for $89.00 bucks just yet.

I have to agree on this... People always turn to entertainment when they feel bad about things. Check out this link to see what Wall Street is saying. It is a good time to go and to buy Disney stock.

http://wdwnewsletter.com/2008/10/22/analysts-fear-park-slowdown-at-walt-disney-co/

Go Disney Go!!!

 

[Brian Noble]

I remember our guide telling us this when we bought in, that, although of course they're making money off us buying into DVC, it's really all the money that we spend while we're there on food, park tickets, etc., etc., where they make even more.

There is certainly something to this. Since 9/11 Disney has not started construction on a single cash-rental resort room. Not one. In fact, they've eliminated some---the mothballing of the 2nd half of Pop, consolidation of rooms into suites at ASMu, the conversion of 5th and 6th floors at AKL to AKV, and the demolition of the north wing at CR. Every resort development dollar spent since that time has gone to building DVC.

Clearly, they've decided that getting people to pre-pay---and thus commit---to Disney vacations long-term is in their best interests. Because DVCers feel like they've already paid to stay there, they're much more likely to come even in down times. True, some might just come and hang out in their resort, cook meals, and swim in the pools, but even in tough economic times, I don't think the fraction doing that will be large.

 

[ead79]

I tend to agree with the idea that WDW will begin to see the slowdown in early 2009 (or maybe in the 2nd quarter of '09). I think that if folks had already reserved and partially paid for a WDW trip, they are likely to still take it.

I do think the economy will affect attendance at WDW, but I don't think it's going to be a ghost town or anything near that type of drop off. I do think we'll see more targeted discounts (like free dining, discount codes, etc.) to convince people to go.

I actually think that Disney's latest marketing campaign (What Will You Celebrate?) is brilliant for these economic times. It enables Disney to appeal to a person's sense of a need to treat themselves despite shaky economic times, and I think it will resonate with a lot of potential guests.

Of course, if the economy gets too ugly, then Disney may really be in for some lean times.

 

[Mississippian]

I'm one of the few people who don't think there's going to be a major down turn at disney (probably the sociologist in me)

• -Generally in bad times, people turn to "vices" to escape. that's why Vegas, AC, movies, theme parks tend to do well compared to other industries in tough times. People need to escape.
• -Disney is still a good "bang for your buck". Research any other vacations lately? I live on the east coast, let me tell you a week at one of the Jersey or Md shore beaches can easily set you back a couple of grand. $ for $ disney is still competitive. Throw in the ddp or free dining and for a vacation it's not so bad.
• -Disney does an excellent job marketing how affordable it can be. Throw in AAA or a code discount and a family of 4 can do disney pretty darn cheap.
• -Working folks tend to have a do or die attitude (or maybe it's just me. LOL) barring total job loss, I'm going to do a vacation. It may not be big but generally I will eat ramien noodles for months, cut back as much as humanly possible before I give up a vacation. Lastly regardless to what we think about it, people have and will charge vacations. I've done it before and while not the smartest move, I'm not going to be a hypocrite and throw stones at others who do.

I think there's going to be a slight slow down but I wouldn't count on getting into the GF for $89.00 bucks just yet.

My wife and I took the children to Europe this past spring break using airline miles and a number of free hotel nights. The cost of the trip nevertheless about broke us.

I thought about booking a trip to Europe this coming spring for just my wife and me, again using airline miles. Instead we're using DVC points to stay three nights at WDW and three nights at Vero. We might add a fourth WDW night at a value resort at the start of our trip. We're doing this to save money.

If money is tight, we'll do a lot of cooking in our room. So our major cost will be tickets and transportation.

I should add, though, that there have been no "quick trips" to WDW for a while. We're watching our money. And I'm willing to bet others are doing the same. So even though we are going, and many other people are going, I do think there will be a drop-off in the number of guests.