Attendance in this economy? Really????

[crisi]

Clearly, they've decided that getting people to pre-pay---and thus commit---to Disney vacations long-term is in their best interests. Because DVCers feel like they've already paid to stay there, they're much more likely to come even in down times. True, some might just come and hang out in their resort, cook meals, and swim in the pools, but even in tough economic times, I don't think the fraction doing that will be large.

And if that number is significant, Disney can cope via reduced hours in the parks, reduced events (i.e. Fantasmic isn't running nightly), reduced restaurant hours and staffing, etc. They know very well how to make certain attractions "seasonal," how to run a parade only three times a week, how to remove and add characters from a meal, and only take reservations for a half full restaurant because you don't want to have a full staff.

 

[CaptHomer]

As mikeandkarla stated it is based on historical averages not on any predictions.

I think it will be a year or so before the crowds drop because people have already paid for their trips. Might not see any change if the economy picks up in the next 6 months or so.

 

[snowbunny]

I tried making ADR for Feb. 14, 2009, Valentines Day at The California Grill today and nothing is available until late in the evening. Sounds like the economy is doing just fine.

That's largely people who already have plane tickets paid for and aren't going to cancel at this point. The real test will be how bookings look for next summer and beyond.

There was a poster on another thread who said as noted above that Fantasmic is being cut back to 2 days per week starting in January. That's just one example of how WDW can pull back on expenses if they see a slowdown in attendance. The recent "free on your birthday" innovation is of course simply an attendance booster that they saw no need to offer in the past.

 

[Mouseaholic!!!]

DH and I use unscientific ways to determine how busy WDW or DL will be.....castmember rates. 2008 has been a very good year for us.

We just spent a few days at DL for DOUBLE the normal castmember rate. We stayed at the Grand Cali and for 4 of our 5 nights, no lights were on in the rooms at night across the Briza courtyard from us. DL was empty - everything was a walk-on - even the biggies!

In 29 days we will be staying at a DVC 1 BR for 65% off the normal rate - and not OKW or SSR. We have NEVER seen castmember rates for more than a 50% discount.

Disney will not give castmember discounts AT ALL if the rooms are nearly sold out so what does this tell you?


Next - David Westin at ABC News told all staff that there would be another round of belt-tightening......after 18 months of layoffs already. Heck, they aren't even buying newspapers for the newsroom!

All Divisions of Disney have been told to expect layoffs soon - and that is after the Iger cost cutting of the last few years.

We have all watched are beloved WDW and DL loose a little of it's shine as maintenance budgets were cut and staffing cutback.

These are not happy times inside the Disney world. The only good thing I can say is they have gold-standard health care --- for all the employees still working under tremendous stress.

65% discounts in 2008 - when you all say it was so busy. Heck --- in 2009 they might just PAY US to stay there the way things are going!!!!!

WOO HOO for 30-year castmember rates!!!!!


Parks and Resorts is a cost center with a very high profit. Lower attendance, lower profit. Lower profit = layoffs.

 

[twinklebug]

Whether or not people are visiting the resorts will be directly related to how secure they feel in their jobs. If companies are still cutting back, attendance will go down no doubt. If unemployment is up, attendance is down. It's not that we couldn't all use a disney break in stressful times, but doing so might up the stress in other ways.

My bet - next summer will have lower attendance than usual and we should see some big enticements on Disney's park to fill the rooms. June/July... 5s & 6s sounds right - typically those are busy months and while attendance will suffer right now people going have it in their head that they WILL go no matter what it takes. It will be at this time next year we'll see the big difference... people don't usually plan more than a year in advance and those who'd be planning for next October now are currently saying - I wonder how stable my job is really.

This said, to bring it around to the forum we're in... DVC is an exception to the rule with the exclusion that those who've lost their jobs may turn to selling their DVC contracts for some cash on hand. I'm betting DVC attendance will stay the same despite the cost of travel and passes. I'm happy I've bought in so I can continue to take trips and pray my job stays secure.

 

[hakepb]

Unfortunatley deeply discounted DVC room stays are a very bad thing for DVC members that may want to eventually try any "trade out" options. The less cash CRO gets for our rooms, the more points trade-outs will cost the next year

 

[Brian Noble]

That's largely people who already have plane tickets paid for and aren't going to cancel at this point.

Not to mention the local APers who want to go out to dinner on V-day.

 

[spiceycat]

At the risk of sounding argumentative, I beg to differ. I have referred to crowd predictors pretty regularly when planning our trips and 3's were not hard to come by in off-seasons. It was fairly easy to put together of week of 3,4,5's if one could travel in Sept/Jan and didn't mind fluctuating weather patterns. For example, as recently as this past September crowd predictions were lower than what they're estimating for next September. I'm puzzled.

I went in Sept - had to change from the first week to the second week because of family.

both of those weeks had no 3's - believe me I looked at his charts the 30 days before that I can.

now 4 and 5's yes - but didn't see any 3's from sept 1 - 18, 2008.

the week after the food/wine festavial starts and it gets crowded for that

so the only week you could be talking about is sept 20-27 - will admit did not even look at that week.

liked it better when he was doing the crowds - not the times for the rides.
now yes he can do better with times for the rides - because they have to be way off for that not to work.

guess it is just too hard to predict what the spring break crowds might be doing.

 

[spiceycat]

I have always gone on Disney hours.

check it often - if they cut back then they are expecting less people -if they increase the hours they are expecting more.

this is generally done about 2 weeks before.

 

[msdis]

With all the new pass types the one thing we are waiting for is the annual pass Epcot after 4 to be open to all guests and/or DVC guests. We have not bought any passes for 3 years. We used to buy AP's (for 10 years) but we no longer have that desire; been there, done that to death. We would prefer a pass that would allow us a nice little evening walk, a place we can get a bite to eat, and a place we can shop a little. We like to listen to Off Kilter and British Invasion and watch the fire works. We seldom will stand in line for the rides and paying 800 for 2 annual passes is not in the "make sense" budget for us any more but we would pay for the Epcot after 4 pass. I don't understand why they open it to FL residents only. This is another missed opportunity for Disney in my mind. They should be giving every possible sales opportunity they can. People want free stuff but we are willing to pay for something we can't have due to a restriction. We will be there in another week and we will still have a terrific time just the same but we would really like to visit just Epcot but even the one day pass is just not worth it. For a once a year 5 night trip Disney would still make way more money off us than a local who could visit much more often.

 

[snowbunny]

we would pay for the Epcot after 4 pass. I don't understand why they open it to FL residents only.

I just booked a room for a summer weekend at CSR for a convention and confirmation included a link to a nice website that offers discounted after-2 pm and after-4pm park passes specifically for convention attendees.

What a great idea! At DVC we hardly ever do full park days either and so often don't buy any park passes. A limited-hours ticket for restaurants would be useful.

 

[Entropy]

I also think there is a lot of merit to the idea that because vacations are planned at least a month or so in advance, any economy-induced drop off hasn't quite hit yet.

I don't think the gas price spike over the summer made a big difference to most people. After all, even someone driving a full day to get to WDW is driving only about 1,000 miles round trip. Figure 20mpg, and an extra $2/gal adds only $100 to a trip---not a deal breaker, though there was a lot of pessimism.

The stock market collapse didn't really start until late September, and didn't feel "real" to a lot of people until a week or two after that. That's been a much bigger deal psychologically, and I don't think it's worked it's way through leisure travel just yet.

I'm not sure that the stock market drop will be real to many people at all.
In my case, I look at my 401-K balance and my various mutual funds and they are down but that's just a piece of paper that represents what I will have at retirement more than 20 years from now. My vacations are paid for from the paychecks that I get now and they haven't changed. In fact, I'm in construction management and we have tons of work scheduled for the next two years.

 

[tinkerbell 766]

Forgive me for being so selfish, and perhaps even mean, but I for one am looking forward to perhaps lower park populations for the 2 perhaps 3 trips we have planned for next calendar year. I will not miss some of the european people and their chants and flags at all. The yelling and chanting often scared my youngest, and was uncalled for imo.

Lower crowds in '09.. sounds great

Thanks for that!!!
Us Europeans help your economy with our trips to USA!
In my experience it is the South Americans who are into the flag waving and chanting.
I am sure WDW would miss us Europeans and our money even if you clearly would not.

 

[Inkmahm]

Thanks for that!!!
Us Europeans help your economy with our trips to USA!
In my experience it is the South Americans who are into the flag waving and chanting.
I am sure WDW would miss us Europeans and our money even if you clearly would not.

Where are you people seeing allthis flag waving and chanting? I've never seen that anywhere at WDW. The worst I've seen is cheerleaders there for their competition who can't seem to stop cheering even in the ride lines.

 

[tinkerbell 766]

I was refering to the Brazilian teenage tour groups who seem to chant all the time. The flag waving was more sporadic. It didn't really bother me though. Just high spirits I guess!!!

 

[DonnaL]

Spicey.......we were there 9/21 thru 9/26.....walked on just about everything every day.......the longest line was probably at AK's EE and that was maybe 10-15 minutes. It was DH, DGS age 7, and myself this trip and we rode everything multiple times in a row simply because there was no waiting. Even Soarin was walk on........haven't ever seen that!!! DH and Gavin rode Space Mountain five times in a row!!! It was a great trip..........

 

[OneMoreTry]

I'm not sure that the stock market drop will be real to many people at all.
In my case, I look at my 401-K balance and my various mutual funds and they are down but that's just a piece of paper that represents what I will have at retirement more than 20 years from now. My vacations are paid for from the paychecks that I get now and they haven't changed. In fact, I'm in construction management and we have tons of work scheduled for the next two years.

The stock market drop won't hit main street until next year. If the predicted increase in unemployement from 6% to 8% happens then lots of people will feel the effect and vacations will be cancelled and DVC contracts wil be sold.

 

[Anal Annie]

I'm not sure that the stock market drop will be real to many people at all.
In my case, I look at my 401-K balance and my various mutual funds and they are down but that's just a piece of paper that represents what I will have at retirement more than 20 years from now. My vacations are paid for from the paychecks that I get now and they haven't changed. In fact, I'm in construction management and we have tons of work scheduled for the next two years.

You must be referring to commercial not residential construction?! Or are things in CA that much better than on the East coast? My DH works for a small Mom & Pop local lumber yard that is HIGHLY dependent on local construction of both varieties....business is scary down this past year and I have already been laid off from my job at an office furniture dealership...

We are still planning to go mid-August next summer simply because our accomodations are covered. But we still have to figure out how to buy our AP's and flights....I will probably try to squirrel away a portion of our tax refund. I am hoping the price of gas will remain steady for awhile and am hoping for big drops in airfare come late winter / early spring when the discount airlines release their summer schedules. We have not booked anything yet so our plans are subject to change if things don't turn around in a few months. We COULD also use miles that we have accrued on a miles credit card...but I was trying to save those for a more expensive trip. But that IS an option we have. Using miles for next summer would only leave us with having to come up with AP money & some spending money.

I think park attendance for 2009 remains to be seen and I think a lot of people will be like us and will wait a little longer than normal to plan anything for sure. For now, I am saying we're going. But I have to be realistic. The mortgage comes first...

 

[Anal Annie]

Where are you people seeing allthis flag waving and chanting? I've never seen that anywhere at WDW. The worst I've seen is cheerleaders there for their competition who can't seem to stop cheering even in the ride lines.

OMG! The Brazilian Tour Groups!! You have been blessed if you've never encountered them on any of your trips!! We ran into them on both of our last 2 trips...last January and July!! They're loud, chanting, flag waving obnoxious groups and they take all the Fast Passes in one shot and then come back in a large group and gunk up the lines. The Fast Pass system was not designed to have groups of 50-75 show up all at once. We were already in the stand-by line for the new Toy Story ride last July when a large group of them came back with their Fast Passes. They literally doubled our wait time by an hour!!! They can be very frustrating.

 

[Brian Noble]

I'm not sure that the stock market drop will be real to many people at all.

I agree 100%. But a lot of people think it is real---and if enough of them do, it will put a damper on discretionary spending.