Attack of the Lakeshore Lodge

[peder]

VLL cannot possibly utilize all 900 rooms for DVC. Let's call it 750+ as some hotel rooms would be turned into larger units, even though the hotel side has its own presidential suites in that mix.

1000+ units between VLL, the cabins and the residuals of PIT would essentially give DVD enough inventory to sell through 2040.

Disney can sell inventory as fast as it wants, it just needs a different pricing level to push inventory faster.

And even if VLL doesn't have that many DVC rooms, don't forget that with Disneylandforward and streamlined DVC approval processes there, we could easily see an announcement of 1 or 2 new DVC properties down there, which would still create the inventory glut that you're describing.

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

And yes, some of our trailer/truck combos along with Class A rv's are quite luxurious (and at least comfortable). Because no matter where we travel with them, we always stay/sleep AT HOME.

Having stayed at the Fort, both in an RV and in a cabin, it is hard to express what a special place it is. I hope that whatever Disney does with LL will complement the Fort rather than divide it…

Just chiming in to say I am an avid fan of Ft. Wilderness and have been visiting for the last 20 years, most recently last month when we stayed for a week through Christmas in the new cabins. I alternate renting an RV versus the old cabins and both have their charms for us - including our two small dogs.

Going forward, I will only stay in the new cabins and that relates to the reason why I did not buy a FW at CFW - I need to know what will happen at lakeshore lodge:

- Will there be new waterfront cabins?
- Part of CFW association and drive down dues?
- Replacement Trails End restaurant?
- Lazy River?

Before I buy any points here, I will need those questions answered and will guess I'm not alone. If I'm DVD, I would think giving those answers as soon as possible would help stimulate demand during construction?

 

[Brian Noble]

They may be some legal constraints on how early they can claim something will definitely be part of CFW/DVC.

 

[The Jackal]

DVD has a lot of inventory to sell. VDH has slowed down a lot. If it continues at its current pace it will take about 10 years to sell out. RIV still has several more years to sell out, unless they do a fire sale. PIT will take a few years to sell out and AUL we all know the story there. I almost forgot the FW Cabins, the sales there are very slow. DVD is currently in uncharted territory with so many resorts being actively sold. LL could make 6 active resorts.

 

[CraigInPA]

MK is getting a fairly significant investment cycle and they've spent the better part of a 15 years removing cash rooms from the MK area. I really think there's an appetite for more MK cash rooms. Poly long houses, Bay Lake Tower, BVK, CCV and the Cabins are a pretty large reduction from their cash inventory since Magic Kingdom's last major expansion.

I believe that the most recent VGF conversion was a result of Disney not filling enough rooms at GF, and wanting to move that inventory to DVC for both the immediate cash infusion as well as shifting maintenance costs to DVC. It's clear that the same thing happened at CCV and Poly. During each quarterly analyst's call, they announce their room occupancy rate. By removing these rooms from the inventory, they can fill the remaining rooms at the prices they want to charge without discounting, and get to report a higher percentage of room occupancy, which helps the current management look good. With 30k total hotel rooms at WDW, shifting 1500 to DVC is a 5% slice. If those rooms were previously unoccupied, that would raise the occupancy rate 1-2% for the year, which is pretty significant.

 

[paults]

I think they should put in all cabins here and rename it CBTL

 

[Tatebeck]

As long as there is no Cabin In The Woods TM

Edit: Actually after thinking about that comment, I would REALLY love a spooky DVC resort that leads into MK by the Villian's land or by the Haunted Mansion.
I would buy that resort day 1

 

[LittleBitGoofy]

As long as there is no Cabin In The Woods TM

I'm never going to get to see the Merman. Sigh.

 

[Tatebeck]

I'm never going to get to see the Merman. Sigh.

Only if DVC goes... Underwater Yeaaaaahhhhhhhhhh

 

[mamaofsix]

Well, proper phrasing is important here.

The FW Campfire/Singalong/Movie nightly is open to any WDW Resort guest (Fort, DVC, other on-property). But generally NOT open to the "general public" (people visiting WDW for the day who are staying off-site.

That being said, the number of true "off property" general public guests who venture over to the FW campfire singalong (which has diminished in value since Chip & Dale no longer circulate the crowd nightly for photos and autographs since the Covid recovery) is relatively few and Disney does not want to pay a CM to try to check/enforce that. They generally only do that around the main pool during summer holidays.

Bama Ed

PS - and oh, the lazy river water feature was in the original plans for R* back in 2019. I assume that this new resort is the same design but with different wallpaper, throw pillows, and lobby theming (Tiana is the latest IP to get a push). Thus I expect a lazy river of some sort/size/simplicity to be at the new resort - I hope the name pays homage to River Country in some way.

PS - that having been said, I usually burn a cube of sugar on the end of a stick, let it catch on fire and blow it out, at least once a trip before I sit down to watch the cartoon and/or the start of the nightly movie.

I really hope they don't change the decor and lobby theming too much from the original concept art. It was wonderful to see so many classic Disney IP represented - bambi, thumper, pocahontas, little bear. At least to me, if felt like the Tiana restaurant wasn't a great fit to the North East / Forest theme. Now that they've built TBA, perhaps that might change and we'll get something else.

Loved the A-Frame and "treehouse" cabin concepts. Fingers crossed those will be kept.

 

[RichVIII]

I believe that the most recent VGF conversion was a result of Disney not filling enough rooms at GF, and wanting to move that inventory to DVC for both the immediate cash infusion as well as shifting maintenance costs to DVC. It's clear that the same thing happened at CCV and Poly. During each quarterly analyst's call, they announce their room occupancy rate. By removing these rooms from the inventory, they can fill the remaining rooms at the prices they want to charge without discounting, and get to report a higher percentage of room occupancy, which helps the current management look good. With 30k total hotel rooms at WDW, shifting 1500 to DVC is a 5% slice. If those rooms were previously unoccupied, that would raise the occupancy rate 1-2% for the year, which is pretty significant.

^ this. Executives winning with this strategy.

I do agree we are in uncharted territory with so many active resorts, but not sure they care. Aulani is renting for cash. VDH they need something to sell for a while. Cabins and now Lakeshore seems like more cash opportunities all while shifting the costs to DVC in the long-term.

 

[ocdb8r1]

^ this. Executives winning with this strategy.

I do agree we are in uncharted territory with so many active resorts, but not sure they care. Aulani is renting for cash. VDH they need something to sell for a while. Cabins and now Lakeshore seems like more cash opportunities all while shifting the costs to DVC in the long-term.

Agreed. I think we need to look at it another way - if Disney wants to expand or build at WDW why would they build anything OTHER than a DVC? Almost every single resort or expansin the past 20 years has been a DVC. The only exceptions are:

• Art of Animation (2012) - however this was really just converting the abandoned (already built) Pop Century Buildings
• Grand Destino Tower (2019) - the single genuine non-DVC expansion in over 20 years
• Galactic Starcruiser (2022) - not really a resort....and we all know how this one ended

What incentive is there to build anything NOT a DVC, particularly when they can rent any unsold/undeclared inventory? The only thing I can think of would be in order to add moderate and/or value capacity, but I suspect they're happy with the capacity they have in those categories with little interest in expanding them.

Keep in mind, all the announced park capacity expansion with new rides (and/or replaced rides with higher draw/throughput) comes with an expectation they'll be drawing higher attendance AND higher on-site stays.

 

[Brian Noble]

Grand Destino Tower (2019) - the single genuine non-DVC expansion in over 20 years

And this was in service to CSR's convention business.

 

[tidefan]

^ this. Executives winning with this strategy.

I do agree we are in uncharted territory with so many active resorts, but not sure they care. Aulani is renting for cash. VDH they need something to sell for a while. Cabins and now Lakeshore seems like more cash opportunities all while shifting the costs to DVC in the long-term.

W. Edwards Deming would be turning in his grave... (See Point #2 of Deming's 7 Deadly Sins of Businesses).

 

[RichVIII]

W. Edwards Deming would be turning in his grave... (See Point #2 of Deming's 7 Deadly Sins of Businesses).

I had to look this up (so thank you for expanding my knowledge) and yes, agree.

Seems like a lot of companies (or executives) are focused on it. Whether it is to sell, boost stock, etc.

 

[CraigInPA]

W. Edwards Deming would be turning in his grave... (See Point #2 of Deming's 7 Deadly Sins of Businesses).

Violating #2 is pretty much standard for any public company.

 

[ocdb8r1]

W. Edwards Deming would be turning in his grave... (See Point #2 of Deming's 7 Deadly Sins of Businesses).

I had to look this up (so thank you for expanding my knowledge) and yes, agree.

Seems like a lot of companies (or executives) are focused on it. Whether it is to sell, boost stock, etc.

Violating #2 is pretty much standard for any public company.

I don't necessarily like or agree with every decision made by Disney management...and there are many more that don't necessarily do me individually any benefits but that I can at least understand or appreciate. I don't agree that VLL is shortsighted or an emphasis on short-term profits.

First, DVC in general is not a "short-term" profit grab. Disney has realized that the benefits of having a "member" goes way beyond the short term profit injection they get from the initial sale of points. Members are very "sticky" in the Disney universe. That big initial financial commitment keeps them coming to the resorts on a very regular basis, in many cases increases their trip frequency to Disney World all while the same time ensuring blockbuster "occupancy rates" at DVC resorts. These all seem like long-term benefits.

Second, if Disney does go through with all the projects announced at D23 (many of which are already starting to break ground) I think it shows a dramatic commitment to sacrificing short-term profits for long-term investment. Overall park attendance has been on a softening trend in the past 3-4 quarters. In the past that would have spooked management and provided a nice excuse to cut/delay/revise ambitious projects. While I expect there will be some tweaks, Disney seems to be going guns blazing into a very aggressive expansion of the parks on both US coasts. All of that should result in additional capacity and additional demand, which should be catered for in resort room growth.

Third, we are approaching 2042 when Beach Club, Boardwalk and Boulder Ridge will all go offline. Who knows what will happen to those resorts, but I don't think it irrational to start building inventory to compensate for that loss (even if temporary).

Now, all of that doesn't mean it's going to pan out how Disney anticipates or how they want....but I don't think it's a bad (or short term) business decision.

 

[tidefan]

I don't necessarily like or agree with every decision made by Disney management...and there are many more that don't necessarily do me individually any benefits but that I can at least understand or appreciate. I don't agree that VLL is shortsighted or an emphasis on short-term profits.

First, DVC in general is not a "short-term" profit grab. Disney has realized that the benefits of having a "member" goes way beyond the short term profit injection they get from the initial sale of points. Members are very "sticky" in the Disney universe. That big initial financial commitment keeps them coming to the resorts on a very regular basis, in many cases increases their trip frequency to Disney World all while the same time ensuring blockbuster "occupancy rates" at DVC resorts. These all seem like long-term benefits.

Second, if Disney does go through with all the projects announced at D23 (many of which are already starting to break ground) I think it shows a dramatic commitment to sacrificing short-term profits for long-term investment. Overall park attendance has been on a softening trend in the past 3-4 quarters. In the past that would have spooked management and provided a nice excuse to cut/delay/revise ambitious projects. While I expect there will be some tweaks, Disney seems to be going guns blazing into a very aggressive expansion of the parks on both US coasts. All of that should result in additional capacity and additional demand, which should be catered for in resort room growth.

Third, we are approaching 2042 when Beach Club, Boardwalk and Boulder Ridge will all go offline. Who knows what will happen to those resorts, but I don't think it irrational to start building inventory to compensate for that loss (even if temporary).

Now, all of that doesn't mean it's going to pan out how Disney anticipates or how they want....but I don't think it's a bad (or short term) business decision.

I think that the comment was made in the aspect of Disney management potentially (not saying that they are) playing shell games converting rooms to DVC to improve "occupancy" numbers.

 

[mamaofsix]

The Dis just posted a “sail by” of the construction progress on instagram. Wow - this resort is massive. Looks like at least twice the width / breadth of Riviera. Keeps going and going…

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[patm95]

The Dis just posted a “sail by” of the construction progress on instagram. Wow - this resort is massive. Looks like at least twice the width / breadth of Riviera. Keeps going and going…

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Well this could solve a lot of availability problems!