Asia Disney Parks closed due to Coronavirus (SHDL, HKDL, TDL)

[mshanson3121]

It depends on where the clusters are in the US. We have vast distances in this country.

This. One reason it spread so rapidly in China, and even in the other places where it now is, is because of condensation. A massive amount of people in a small space.

 

[xuxa777]

 

[Brianstl]

It depends on where the clusters are in the US. We have vast distances in this country.

Knowing where the clusters are only helps if you are willing to forcibly quarantine people inside that geographic area. How do you think large segments of the population are going to respond to checkpoints in this country not letting people out of and not letting others into an area? Our political process is so poisoned in this country that we will have a large group declaring that the virus is being used to turned the country into a dictatorship.

 

[clarker99]

I just posted this on another thread:

‘In 2009, we had a 2 week holiday to Mexico booked. H1N1 caused Canada to block flights to Mexico. Through our travel agent (and tour company), we re-booked to go to WDW. So, WDW did not close.

H1N1 which (depending on what you read) had bw 200k-500k deaths related to it. This COVID-19 is not on that level at all.’

 

[QueenElinor]

It depends on where the clusters are in the US. We have vast distances in this country.

This. One reason it spread so rapidly in China, and even in the other places where it now is, is because of condensation. A massive amount of people in a small space.

More and more I think you guys are right. I guess I figured that if there is an outbreak, the virus would spread through this country like it did in China, but now I don't think so. Just over the past 24 hours, the virus from the man who died near Seattle was sequenced and it's very close to the very first US case, the one taken care of in that area a month ago. So big headlines today that there could be hundreds or thousands of people infected because the virus has been out circulating in the community for a month.

But.... where are the cases? There should be dozens of sick folks on vents up there, but there aren't. I don't think the virus has mutated into a benign form like in the Andromeda Strain. I think that we practice, accidentally, a whole lot more social distancing than what happens in a big Chinese city. I'm a lot more optimistic now that this virus can be contained.

 

[Germack]

I just posted this on another thread:

‘In 2009, we had a 2 week holiday to Mexico booked. H1N1 caused Canada to block flights to Mexico. Through our travel agent (and tour company), we re-booked to go to WDW. So, WDW did not close.

H1N1 which (depending on what you read) had bw 200k-500k deaths related to it. This COVID-19 is not on that level at all.’

H1N1 infected around 1/5th of the US population causing 12,469 deaths in the US and ~500K worldwide. Mortality rate was ~0.02%.

Mortality rate of COVID-19 is around 2% (100 times higher than H1N1). If it will infect as many people as H1N1 did a lot of people may die. COVID-19 has the potential to be much more dangerous than H1N1.

 

[clarker99]

H1N1 infected around 1/5th of the US population causing 12,469 deaths in the US and ~500K worldwide. Mortality rate was ~0.02%.

Mortality rate of COVID-19 is around 2% (100 times higher than H1N1). If it will infect as many people as H1N1 did a lot of people may die. COVID-19 has the potential to me much more dangerous than H1N1.

The numbers just arent trending to be a 500,000 death outbreak (Knock on wood). The 2% is on known cases. How many are unknown? How many are carriers and not even sick? The actual death rate is prob significantly lower. And the death rate in the US will likely be less for many reasons.

The age and health of the people who contract it seem to be a significant factor. People under 50 with no preexisting conditions or are not immune compromised are not dying anywhere near 2%, if at all.. The lack of context being reported is just unfair. Plus, are we to believe the China reports on the numbers?

Not trying to downplay but there just seems to be a crazy amount context-less hysteria being drummed up.

 

[QueenElinor]

H1N1 infected around 1/5th of the US population causing 12,469 deaths in the US and ~500K worldwide. Mortality rate was ~0.02%.

Mortality rate of COVID-19 is around 2% (100 times higher than H1N1). If it will infect as many people as H1N1 did a lot of people may die. COVID-19 has the potential to be much more dangerous than H1N1.

It definitely does, and that's why there's such alarm about this. But the government response to this is much greater than it was to H1N1 (although it was a pretty big response then). The steps that have been taken have really been unprecedented.

The problem is, in much of the world there's no capacity to respond. That's what worries me.

...How many are unknown? How many are carriers and not even sick?...

Not many according to the WHO who just returned from China. Although I'm not sure they got the whole picture over there, even though they were on the ground. No one has the full picture from China and that is a BIG part of the problem. Whether that's deliberate (maybe) or because they're overwhelmed (definitely) the data just is pretty patchy.

 

[TwoMisfits]

The numbers just arent trending to be a 500,000 death outbreak (Knock on wood). The 2% is on known cases. How many are unknown? How many are carriers and not even sick? The actual death rate is prob significantly lower. And the death rate in the US will likely be less for many reasons.

The age and health of the people who contract it seem to be a significant factor. People under 50 with no preexisting conditions or are not immune compromised are not dying anywhere near 2%, if at all.. The lack of context being reported is just unfair. Plus, are we to believe the China reports on the numbers?

Not trying to downplay but there just seems to be a crazy amount context-less hysteria being drummed up.

That's b/c the numbers only include those confirmed to have been tested and found positive...and deaths only include the same...

When the CDC does flu estimates, they don't use "exact" numbers in this way. To do so, they say would wildly undercount overall infection and overall death rates.

So, with the incredible lack of testing to start in this virus outbreak, probably everything (both good resolutions and bad) is being severely undercounted...so the guesstimate of 2% death (when the actual running rate is 7-8% b/c they are only looking at confirms of infections and deaths from those infections) is probably close to on point...although it could go worse...or better...probably based on how places get overwhelmed...

Here's how the CDC does count the flu every year...see the last line...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
Why doesn’t CDC base its seasonal flu mortality estimates only on death certificates that specifically list influenza?
Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has been recognized for many years that influenza is underreported on death certificates. There may be several reasons for underreporting, including that patients aren’t always tested for seasonal influenza virus infection, particularly older adults who are at greatest risk of seasonal influenza complications and death. Even if a patient is tested for influenza, influenza virus infection may not be identified because the influenza virus is only detectable for a limited number of days after infection and many people don’t seek medical care in this interval. Additionally, some deaths – particularly among those 65 years and older – are associated with secondary complications of influenza (including bacterial pneumonias). For these and other reasons, modeling strategies are commonly used to estimate flu-associated deaths. Only counting deaths where influenza was recorded on a death certificate would be a gross underestimation of influenza’s true impact.

 

[SarahInMN]

Mortality rate of COVID-19 is around 2% (100 times higher than H1N1). If it will infect as many people as H1N1 did a lot of people may die. COVID-19 has the potential to be much more dangerous than H1N1.

Most recent estimates (using 1099 lab confirmed cases with a spectrum of severity of disease) published in NEJM puts covid19 mortality closer to 1.4% and Anthony Fauci’s editorial points out (based on observational data of infected individuals having no or minimal symptoms) that the likely case fatality rate is under 1% because many people have it but do not know it or seek care. This would put it on par with a really nasty pandemic level influenza strain but nowhere near the Spanish flu mortality rate.

Granted seasonal influenza has a mortality rate of around 0.1% so lower than Covid19 (or maybe not if Fauci is right) but we’ve already seen 18,000 US flu deaths this season alone.

Covid19 isn’t mers or SARS or Ebola or the Spanish flu.

 

[Brianstl]

Most recent estimates (using 1099 lab confirmed cases with a spectrum of severity of disease) published in NEJM puts covid19 mortality closer to 1.4% and Anthony Fauci’s editorial points out (based on observational data of infected individuals having no or minimal symptoms) that the likely case fatality rate is under 1% because many people have it but do not know it or seek care. This would put it on par with a really nasty pandemic level influenza strain but nowhere near the Spanish flu mortality rate.

Granted seasonal influenza has a mortality rate of around 0.1% so lower than Covid19 (or maybe not if Fauci is right) but we’ve already seen 18,000 US flu deaths this season alone.

Covid19 isn’t mers or SARS or Ebola or the Spanish flu.

The Spanish Flu wasn’t the Spanish Flu until the second wave of infections. It was similar to a typical flu epidemic until the really deadly second wave.

 

[SarahInMN]

The Spanish Flu wasn’t the Spanish Flu until the second wave of infections. It was similar to a typical flu epidemic until the really deadly second wave.

My point though is neither is Covid19 based on available data.

 

[Thecouch]

I actually wonder if I already had it in Australia. Early Dec I had my worse flu in years including 24hrs where my chest was on fire. Took me weeks to recover. I work with a few guys that travel to China all the time. Plus get train that stops at suburbs that are almost all chinnese and Korean. No way early Jan 60k people in one area suddenly got it when it has such a long period to show signs. I reckon its been around for while. I know in Australia they said this year flu shot wasn't very successful. How would they know it wasn't coronavirus if they didn't know to test for it
This article about 2019 flu season in Australia says it didn't effect many but higher death rate espically in older people
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/04/health/flu-australia-america.html

 

[TomServo27]

My point though is neither is Covid19 based on available data.

You also have to factor in that we have much better healthcare than they did 100 years ago. So it could be as deadly or even more deadly than the Spanish influenza was but it is just mitigated by better healthcare.

 

[SarahInMN]

You also have to factor in that we have much better healthcare than they did 100 years ago. So it could be as deadly or even more deadly than the Spanish influenza was but it is just mitigated by better healthcare.

True.

 

[Brianstl]

My point though is neither is Covid19.

We really don’t know enough yet to make a judgement like that. It obviously doesn’t have they same mortality rate as something like Ebola. Outside of that we don’t know what is going to happen as the virus spreads into large segments of the world’s population and starts to mutate. We know far less about this virus in the human population than we know at this point. The unknowns represent risks that are best to do everything possible to avoid. Nassim Taleb covers the risks when you deal with things like this virus in his writings.

 

[mckennarose]

I actually wonder if I already had it in Australia. Early Dec I had my worse flu in years including 24hrs where my chest was on fire. Took me weeks to recover. I work with a few guys that travel to China all the time. Plus get train that stops at suburbs that are almost all chinnese and Korean. No way early Jan 60k people in one area suddenly got it when it has such a long period to show signs. I reckon its been around for while. I know in Australia they said this year flu shot wasn't very successful. How would they know it wasn't coronavirus if they didn't know to test for it
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/04/health/flu-australia-america.html

I suppose it's possible. Some news sites were reporting on the Washington cases that it could've been spreading there for 6 weeks undetected. That would suggest that people had it and recovered just fine. They didn't have a sudden high mortality spike for unknown reasons or they would've had a lot more attention earlier. I've also seen them report that they think it probably IS in other areas of the US, just not detected yet.

And the fact that the coronavirus was first noted in China (not with that name) in the beginning of December by the doctor that was arrested for "spreading rumors". How long could it have been spreading in China before that? It really could be anywhere.

 

[SarahInMN]

We really don’t know enough yet to make a judgement like that

based on available data it doesn’t look like mers or SARS. According to experts, fatality rate is at 2% or 1.4% depending on methodology and several experts/epidemiologists are questioning if it’s lower. I just don’t think this is the harbinger of a civilization collapse that the media is propagating. I could be wrong but there is a ton of sensationalism out there too.

 

[Brianstl]

I said based on available data it doesn’t look like mers or SARS. According to experts, fatality rate is at 2% or 1.4% depending on methodology and epidemiologists are questioning if it’s lower. I just don’t think this is the harbinger of a civilization collapse that the media is propagating.

It won’t be the collapse of civilization even in a worst case scenario with this virus. Most people exposed to the virus won’t get it, vast majority who get it won’t need to be hospitalized and the vast majority of those hospitalized won’t die in a worst case scenario. It still could be something that won’t be pleasant to go through.

 

[SarahInMN]

It won’t be the collapse of civilization even in a worst case scenario with this virus. Most people exposed to the virus won’t get it. It still could be something that won’t be pleasant to go through.

I don’t disagree getting sick is unpleasant and the fatality rate is higher than seasonal flu but the run on food, goods, and surgical masks is being fed by the media.