April 2022 Direct Sales Numbers

[Sandisw]

Someone mentioned April direct sales of VGF units to new members would only reflect half a month. Is that accurate?

Yes. That is correct...It also reflects half of the sales from March when current owners added on in big numbers with the initial incentives. That is why the next month or two of sales will be a better indicator of what is happening with the two resorts, side by side, with all those deciding to buy direct, as it will have been open to everyone.

I won't be surprised to see that the VGF number goes back down, simply because many owners choose to add on when it first opened. We know that over 62K of points were sold just the first day due to the luggage set incentive!!!!

 

[KTownRaider]

Someone mentioned April direct sales of VGF units to new members would only reflect half a month. Is that accurate?

It was noted in the March Direct Sales report that the first deeds 'were not recorded with the Orange County Comptroller until March 15' despite sales to existing members starting on 3/3. Using that as a reference point, it stands to reason that there could be a couple week lag from 3/31 (date that sales opened to new members) for initial new member sales to be recognized/recorded (possibly around 4/12-ish).

https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...-sales-resume-direct-sales-jump-in-march-2022

 

[Royal Consort]

I mean that's just going to happen, right? The newest resort is going to have the youngest owners almost as a rule.

I'm 33 and don't own Old Key West because it went on sale when I was 2.

Sure but until recently OKW was a drop product so younger people could certainly choose to buy this over newer and more expensive resorts. My comparison was between RVA and VGF. It will be interesting to see which resort sells more to new members over the coming months.

Generally speaking I would anticipate new master contracts at VGF would skew a bit older anyway. There seems to be lots of DINKS at RVA. VGF has mo, dad, grandad, uncle Bob and aunt Josaphine who no one really wanted on the trip in the first place.

I would love a peek at Disney's data.

 

[NorCalDisFan]

And let the debate begin - are the resale restrictions hurting RIV sales?

So now the main arguments are
- RIV sold points is strong vs. disappointed
- RIV less sold points (even if still strong) is due to resale restriction vs. location and personal preference?

 

[Sandisw]

So now the main arguments are
- RIV sold points is strong vs. disappointed
- RIV less sold points (even if still strong) is due to resale restriction vs. location and personal preference?

Also, were the really high VGF numbers for March and April only that high because so many current owners added on in March? Did that level of sales continue??

 

[RKS03]

Also, were the really high VGF numbers for March and April only that high because so many current owners added on in March? Did that level of sales continue??

Agreed. The member incentives were quite good. I’d guess the existing member numbers will drop soon and we’ll see how new customers will decide.

 

[Sandisw]

Agreed. The member incentives were quite good. I’d guess the existing member numbers will drop soon and we’ll see how new customers will decide.

And i really believe that in order for them to abandon them, they really need to see data like this continue.

If sales end up similar the next few months between the two, I’d venture they will stick it out and both VDH and Poly tower will end up with them.

 

[Brian Noble]

I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I'd bet heavy that Disney is not going to go backward on removing resales of RIV and future resorts from the Club. This is a long-term play, and one that other timeshare companies---including at least one peer---have already been doing for years. Most buyers don't have even a basic understanding that the resale market exists, let alone the subtleties like this, and those other systems are perfectly capable of selling shiny "new" timeshare points that carry similar restrictions. There is no reason to believe that Disney's pixie-dust fueled Reality Distortion Field will be any less successful.

The other companies that withdraw resales have ways of "washing" dirty points, either through a new purchase or junk fees. It would not surprise me if Disney eventually did something like that, but if they do I suspect it will not be cheap.

 

[RKS03]

And i really believe that in order for them to abandon them, they really need to see data like this continue.

If sales end up similar the next few months between the two, I’d venture they will stick it out and both VDH and Poly tower will end up with them.

Yes and like you’ve pointed out elsewhere on a potential Poly2 purchase (would purchase if new entity), they do seem to lead to incremental direct purchases. I actually suspect once VGF2 is cleared out it’ll be easier for them to just go full steam ahead with resale restrictions.

 

[NorCalDisFan]

I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I'd bet heavy that Disney is not going to go backward on removing resales of RIV and future resorts from the Club. This is a long-term play, and one that other timeshare companies---including at least one peer---have already been doing for years. Most buyers don't have even a basic understanding that the resale market exists, let alone the subtleties like this, and those other systems are perfectly capable of selling shiny "new" timeshare points that carry similar restrictions. There is no reason to believe that Disney's pixie-dust fueled Reality Distortion Field will be any less successful.

The other companies that withdraw resales have ways of "washing" dirty points, either through a new purchase or junk fees. It would not surprise me if Disney eventually did something like that, but if they do I suspect it will not be cheap.

Then, eventually dvc resale value gets lowered like others. Resale value is the one of the best parts of DVC. Not sure it's good to either members or Disney.

 

[hglenn]

Then, eventually dvc resale value gets lowered like others. Resale value is the one of the best parts of DVC. Not sure it's good to either members or Disney.

I agree. If my only option when buying into DVC were to stay at the resort I bought into, I wouldn't.... nor would I buy direct knowing that I could only sell it to the pool of people who want to stay at that resort only. Same reason why I wouldn't buy RIV direct. I would buy RIV resale but that wouldn't be my only contract.

 

[Sandisw]

I agree. If my only option when buying into DVC were to stay at the resort I bought into, I wouldn't.... nor would I buy direct knowing that I could only sell it to the pool of people who want to stay at that resort only. Same reason why I wouldn't buy RIV direct. I would buy RIV resale but that wouldn't be my only contract.

I think if these stay, what will happen is that resale buyers will become owners who have multiple resorts for different trip. While I get it is not exactly the same, there are many owners who do self impose restrictions by staying at the same resort, or few resorts, every trip.

I am a RIV/VGF person and have no desire to stay elsewhere. But, in 2042, when the resale choices are small and direct options are larger, this will seem like a blip and everyone will be used to it.

We also have to remember that there is nothing that prevents from DVD from putting in an exchange program that allows restricted resale owners to pay a "fee" to trade points into ones that are good for a stay at a different resort.

For example, they could decide to allow me to pay a one time reservation fee to "trade" my RIV resale points for a stay elsewhere, using points that they own that are valid. Similar to how they now allow people to change DVC points into Reservation points, and then get to use them to book WDW resorts that are not DVC.

Lots of ways this can all go if restrictions stay around.. The whole goal is to get people to buy direct and as soon as they can make resale an inferior product, they have achieved that goal!

 

[Brian Noble]

eventually dvc resale value gets lowered like others

First: I don't think that's true. One of those "others" is Marriott, and it holds resale value well---primarily because the underlying rental rates support it, much as DVC does.

Second, why would Disney care if it does? Plenty of timeshares are easy to sell at eye-popping prices even though resale values are zero, and collapsing resale prices makes inventory recycling via ROFR that much easier.

 

[hglenn]

First: I don't think that's true. One of those "others" is Marriott, and it holds resale value well---primarily because the underlying rental rates support it, much as DVC does.

Second, why would Disney care if it does? Plenty of timeshares are easy to sell at eye-popping prices even though resale values are zero, and collapsing resale prices makes inventory recycling via ROFR that much easier.

I'm not versed in Marriott - so if you buy Marriott resale you can only stay at one designated hotel?

 

[Brian Noble]

Not quite. If you buy Marriott points resale, you have to pay a fee to enroll them in the system. It's about 18-20% of the retail price.

I have no idea what happens if you don't pay the enrollment fee.

 

[havoc315]

I still think it’s a very minimal effect. I think ultimately RIV “hurts” RIV compared to VGF.
There is nothing wrong with RIV, but it does not have anything just amazing going for it. It’s a moderate location that has a skyliner. And the resort itself is like a giant JW Marriott etc. To a lot of people it just doesn’t have this huge draw to it. Once again it’s perfectly fine, but to me that’s it.

What hurt Riviera was the timing of Covid -- The entire place shutting down just as the resort was opening.

Up to the Covid closure, it was selling just as well as any other new resort during their respective periods.

 

[havoc315]

And let the debate begin - are the resale restrictions hurting RIV sales?

From the article:

"In April 2022, 93,218 points were sold for Riviera, largest single-month sales since 153,416 points were sold in March 2020 at the cusp of the COVID-19 pandemic."

So not, the fact that sales are still increasing 2 years in... The fact that it's still selling 93,000 points when in direct competition with a brand new offering..... Pretty clearly sales aren't hurt.

 

[sethschroeder]

So now the main arguments are
- RIV sold points is strong vs. disappointed
- RIV less sold points (even if still strong) is due to resale restriction vs. location and personal preference?

Its always been strong for what Disney expected and I have said this since the first money DVC direct went back on sale and was something like 50k points.

RIV really didn't lose a beat month over month when VGF came out. That should outline that its not really impacting buyers. VGF simply pulls in extra buyers just like Disneyland Tower will pull in extra buyers that would normally not be buying DVC direct.

Heck if someone wants to say RIV is struggling because of resale restrictions I would counter that VGF is selling more direct BECAUSE of the resale restrictions and new VGF owners wanting the future resort options.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Honestly I really like both RIV and the grand. Resale restrictions lead me the grand for direct. But that is my own opinion. I am waiting on the sidelines for RIV resale contract when the market goes down.

 

[hhisc16]

Yes. That is correct...It also reflects half of the sales from March when current owners added on in big numbers with the initial incentives. That is why the next month or two of sales will be a better indicator of what is happening with the two resorts, side by side, with all those deciding to buy direct, as it will have been open to everyone.

I won't be surprised to see that the VGF number goes back down, simply because many owners choose to add on when it first opened. We know that over 62K of points were sold just the first day due to the luggage set incentive!!!!

Just curious, where did the 62k for the first day info come from?

That is about 12 million dollars in one day! Is that a record for a single day of sales for DVC?!?