I'm not usually one to prognosticate (although my prediction of VGF2 as the next
DVC was dead on), but let's look at the issues regarding APs:
2. AP's sold to non-FL and CA residents are relatively small in number. They exist for the die hard Disney fans, which is a tiny number, and DVC members, which is a larger number.
The non-DVC die hard fans are coming and staying, likely on site, for multiple trips or for very long trips (as we've seen with non-US users of this board). I don't think we can even guess as to what the behavior of the die hard fans are regarding revenue in park, since one can make the argument that die hard fans already probably own every souvenir, but the counter argument that new souvenirs come out monthly can quash that. I think it's safe to say that the die hard fan probably isn't staying or dining off site. So, their incremental revenue is probably close to, if not greater than, the "average" person who comes for a week and buys individual passes. The difference is their theme park admission price. Realistically, the theme park admission price is a smallish fraction of the entire trip considering the price of Disney lodging, food, and souvenirs. The numbers of passes sold in this category, and the iffiness of the revenue model, probably mean this will remain available, but only as an Incredipass.
The DVC members get a discount. DVC leverages that discount to sell direct contracts. DVC members aren't paying for Disney lodging. DVC members may or may not be paying for Disney food and souvenirs. DVC members are the "lower revenue customers" that Chapek would like to curtail in the park. But, the trade-off between the cash coming in from DVD/DVC and the lower revenue in the park isn't clearly defined. If DVC eliminates AP discounts, would that push people toward resale? Would it de-value DVC's direct sale pricing? If DVC owners don't have AP's, would they buy a lower number of individual days in the Disney parks (I did on my recent trip) and *gasp* go to Universal or SeaWorld instead? If those people in the 1000+ DVC rooms at 95% utilization suddenly stopped going to Disney parks, "gate figures" would fall (see #1 above). In addition to the falling gate figures, Disney would also suffer from the loss of ancillary revenue (e.g., I ate lunch at Universal, instead of having lunch at Disney). I believe that DVC AP's will continue, if only because DVC, who has a seat at the table, will rightfully claim that eliminating one of the biggest direct sales incentives may cripple their future growth.
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