Anyone want to help improve my DVC Spreadsheet?

[Roveer]

I've been working on a DVC Spreadsheet for a while now. I wanted to get a handle on DVC Ownership vs staying in similar accomodations rack rate so I could see when/where Ownership made sense.

DVC Comparison Spreadsheet To save the file, use the right mouse button and select "save target as"

I got a little carried away and really started adding a bunch of stuff to the sheet. I'd appreciate it if a few fellow DIS'ers could take a look and tell me if I've made any huge mistakes. I'll continue to improve and when finished would like to share with all who want.

I picked 4 properties that My family and I are considering. Right now the sheet is set up for a 5 night stay (sun-thursday) during "Magic Season". I chose the minimum number of points to accomodate the stay based on 2010 point charts and based my cost per point looking at some listings on-line. I also factored in current maintenance fees. I based rack rate at 820.00 per night which is 2 bedroom territory for BCV and I think BWV. After all, no sense in comparing DVC to standard room. My family is no longer allowed in standard room anyway. There's 6 of us all over the age of 3.

I also made assumptions on 3% annual maintenance fee increase vs 1% annual rack rate increase. If someone wants to set me straight there I'd appreciate it.

The things I'd like people to check are

Row 21 - Cost of Points (is my math right for each resort?)
My 5, 10, 15 & 20 Year comparisons including the percentages above which indicate when DVC is better than RR (green)

What I'm finding is that DVC can be break-even or better in as little as 5 years in some cases and by the 20 year mark it appears to be 50+% cheaper than rack rate. Is my data correct here?

Any/All feedback is greatly apprecited.

 

[thelionqueen]

Although I have no suggestions, just wanted to comment that the spreadsheet is beautiful albeit a bit hard to understand for me.

Looks like someone loves Excel

Nice Work!

 

[Roveer]

I'm what you would call an excel madman. Right now It's in a form that came out of my brain with addition after addition. Once I've verified that all the assumptions & math are correct I'll start working on making is look better so that people can better understand it. I tried a little with my notes, but then they contributed to the complexity.

 

[rentayenta]

I would more of a hinder than a help but bravo on the gorgeous planning work sheet!

 

[wdrl]

I'd appreciate it if a few fellow DIS'ers could take a look and tell me if I've made any huge mistakes.

Really good effort and I don't think you've made any huge mistakes.

There are a couple points that I recommend you consider in your calculations. First, you may want to initially acquire slightly more points for each resort than you currently need for a reservation. This would protect you against future adjustments in the point charts, such as what has happened in 2010. Second, the point requirements for BWV and BLT assume you will be able to obtain a two-bedroom villa for the cheapest rate. In BLT's case, there will be very few value view rooms and you may have to book a Lake View room for 4 points more per night. You might want to rework your spreadsheet assuming that you'll need enough points for a LV at BLT and the Boardwalk/Preferred view at BWV. Each will add 20 points to your acquisition and MF costs.

 

[leith78]

Great spreadsheet. Found it to be helpful, as I'm also researching when the "break even" point will be for my family.

 

[lumpydj]

First of all - GREAT SPREADSHEET!! I love spreadsheets. I can totally follow yours. One thing to consider when figuring your "breakeven". Do you go to Disney EVERY YEAR and stay in a 2 bedroom? Do you never stay on weekends?

I can see by your spreadsheet that it is very flexible and you can put in certain scenarios - so you may want to consider the answers to those questions and plug in the "worst case" (staying weekends, not travelling every year if paying rack rates) to see what the break even would be.

When deciding where to buy, I noticed that you have some resale locations on there. You'll also need to factor in the non-monetary cost of the contract ending sooner than a new contract. (I know you didn't ask for advice on that, I just wanted to throw that in there...)

 

[Roveer]

Excellent responses. Thanks.

wdrl: You make an good point about minimum points. I guess I was just looking at absolute minimums and figured that points skewed higher for the sun-thurs for 2010 and was figuring they wouldn't skew further that way but would probably bounce back a little. Maybe I should re-think that. Also good point about minimum points needed for resorts with different room views. Although with cost being a pretty important factor I would have to make minimum points work (booking at the 12 month window, which at some of our choises is pretty much a must) to get Std room view Or take your advise and amass more points to allow at least lake or preferred view.

I've been reading about how people economize at BWV with std view. Seems to be a popular concept.

lumpydj

As for acconomdations, with our family of 6 it's going to be 2 bedroom every time. Considering we've been to WDW almost every year over the past 8 (with the exception being arrival of more kids), I think it's safe to say that will continue. My kids (and me too), can't get enough of Disney. Yes, yes, the Grand Canyon and Mt. Rushmore will come, but for right now with little kids, they love their Disney. Just ask my 3yo who reminds us EVERY DAY about going to disney for dumbo, carpet, small world. Yes, at 3... So there, for those who say the kids will never remember. Boy will they be surprised when I tell them we are going in 9 days. It's a complete surprise. They think they are going to the beach for a day... Can't wait.

Glad to hear the sheet is accurate. In all my research I found very little that really showed the cost of DVC combined with maintenance fees with forward looks and resort comparisons. I need to get my head around these things before I can move forward otherwise I always feel like I have no idea what I buying. Using this sheet I can say "It's a good deal" and also know what I'm expected to pay each year.

Now, add to these figures, travel, food & park tickets and again it gets a little mind boggling. Some people would think we are crazy. Maybe, but if we are going to keep going year after year and in our case are forced to consider 2 rooms or bigger rooms and want to stay on property than at least it makes fiscal sense. That was the purpose of the exercise.

 

[muscarello4]

Thanks for the spreadsheet. I'm using it on hubby to further prove that DVC is a good deal for us.

 

[silmarg]

a very interesting spreadsheet.

I use it to compare a studio in SSR to staying at a Moderatre resorts at $149 a nite... and including weekends (as what is really my compate).

while the accomodations are better is a SSR studio (presumably - as I have not yet ever stayed there) you do lose mousekeeping (the DW is none too pleased about that).

There still is positive ROI (granted the break even is further out).

I think the increase in rack rate will be more than 1% - IMHO.

Nice job - from another Excel geek...

 

[Roveer]

I've never seen someone wield a spreadsheet. I hope it's an effective weapon in everyone's quest for DVC. Let the negotiations begin!!! That being said, I don't want anybody stealing my points... Happy that people are finding it useful.

 

[mishagray]

It does an interesting job comparing DVC ownership to rack rate rooms.

However! Don't try to use it to compare resorts with each other.

Your spreadsheet confirms what I have been seeing: that BLT is REALLY one of the cheapest resorts long term, due to a VERY low maintence. It's really the first "hotel" like resort and because of that there should be many efficiencies in energy and other factors that should keep it's fees lower long term.

Note how after 10 years it starts getting "cheaper" long term than many of it's "cheaper" priced resorts. I'm gonna pass on AKW now and go for BLT (remember: you can stay anywhere!). AWK owners have to pay for animals and higher security!

Some interesting additions: Trying to come up with an accurate remaining "value" for each resort so you can accurately compute real depreciation. BLT contracts are good till 2060 while others expire as early as 2042. Remember: At anytime you should be able sell your contracts (up until the last 5-10 years or so) and recoup some of your original costs! That actually makes the costs even lower (unless you plan on owning it till they expire!).

But a real analysis should include investing your DVC purchase money SOMEWHERE ELSE and looking at the lost opportunity costs. Assume an initial investment at the cost of the points, and how much you would have if you "Added" to the investment at the same rate as your maintence fees.

Then subtract from that cash investment your "rack rate" expenses. But in general increase rack-rate costs will eat away at your "investment" anyways.

 

[awilliams4]

Roveer,

I am not answering the questions you mentioned but I do similar tracking but my spreadsheet isn't as thorough as yours. I found All Ears' Accomodations link as a useful tool on tracking Rack Room rates. Thought I would mention that you may want to price your 2 Bedroom per resort instead of assuming all 2 Bedrooms are $820 per night. SSR's rates are lower than BWV while BLT's rates are more than BCV. You can see the list at All Ears. I take All Ears posted rack room rates and add another 12.5% to take tax into consideration that I would pay if I paid CRO for the room (or is it 11.5%?!?!? Either way it is significant)

I contacted All Ears about them not posting BLT's rates yet and they said they will be posted soon. So for BLT, I just went to Disney's site and got quoted on a BLT 2 Bedroom Lake View during various season's to keep my spreadsheet updated for BLT's rates as well.

 

[rcchello]

Now if only you could take into account the yearly room discount called free Dining. Disney has been discounting the cost of rooms by the price of a Dining Plan.

If you were willing to time your vacations to Disney Discounts or the availability of Annual Pass Discounts you may end up cheaper not buying DVC but buying Annual Passes instead or only coming during free Dining?

Now that would be a comprehensive spreadsheet.

 

[amberkow]

Thanks for putting this together! As another Excel "junkie" who is thinking about DVC, it's nice to see what else is out there!

 

[MisplacedTraveler]

Great spreadsheet! One minor suggestion, the cost of the points should be prorated over the length remaining on the contract since it will not cost $78*200 every year.