Anyone already post that paper FP will be gone at MK as of 1/14?

[wisblue]

Except the reservation CMs are hard selling the FP+. When I called to make my reservation, December 31st, I was given a lengthy MB explanation, given explicit instructions on how to log into MDE and instructed to make an account immediately, and told 5 times to make ride reservations as soon as possible.

This discussion is more about how many people will arrive at park opening than how many will make FP+ reservations on the 60 day mark. But, even then, you can tell people to make those reservations, but they still have to discipline themselves to mark their calendars and actually take action.

If Disney can alter people's inclination to procrastinate and sleep in to this great extent, I will be surprised and impressed. And I will adapt.

 

[momof2n2]

I used a lot of words to get here, but I put this into the category of "I'll wait and see what happens and adapt to it if there is a dramatic change". I don't think Disney wants that kind of a crush at opening and, if it starts to happen, I suspect that they would do something about it.

Hmmmm - like maybe go back to EMH?

I have to share this anecdote from our last trip because it just adds to my perception of how totally clueless a lot of WDW guests are.

On Friday, December 27, we got on a DME bus at about 4 PM. On the ride to SSR, we heard the couple behind us talking about making a reservation for a character dinner, and it was obvious that they were talking about making a reservation for that night. As the woman is fiddling around on her phone, she says to her husband "everything says 'not available', maybe they don't do those things over the holidays". And the husband says "or maybe they are already booked for tonight".

When people who plan like this are the competition for making FP+ reservations and arriving at the park early to get rides done, I'm not too worried.

Yes, this is my favorite kind of competition. I used to feel very sorry for these folks, but now I am a bit relieved they exist.

Just as I would venture to say DISers are not the majority in terms of planning-style, I would also say that people who are that uninformed are also not the majority.

It's the in-between group I am most worried about. The ones that are smart enough to know they need a plan but don't want to do it themselves. This would be a great niche for an already special group of travel agents. Doing the FP+ bookings as they do the ADRs now.

It pretty much looks like this on any given Tuesday during the slow times that we have visited.

http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorized/touring-hollywood-studios-with-tiered-fastpass-november-20-2013/

This! is one of my all time favorite Josh posts! I have sent the link to that page to lots of friends.

I am so grateful that the biggest stressor I had when I woke this morning is, "What should I do about that vacation we have planned." It could be so much worse. But still, I do wonder, "What should I do about that vacation we have planned..." We didn't travel two years in a row d/t family things (babies, etc.) and have been looking forward to a two-week extravaganza of fun. Trying to decide if fun should be a house in the panhandle; a non-WDW week in central FL; or suck it up and hit the parks.

 

[crostorfer]

That looks pretty typical. It was pretty much like that on Sunday, December 28 when we visited, except that everything was an hour earlier because the official opening time (no EMH) was 8 AM. I don't know how this translates into numbers, but think about it this way. I think I saw that the entire seating capacity for the Fantasmic theater is about 7000. I think it is safe to say that the number of people in the area between the ticket booths and the turnstiles is nowhere close to that number. Even if 6000 people were to arrive at the park for opening, the process of getting them through the gates would greatly reduce the number able to physically enter the park in that first hour. Anyone arriving right at opening would find a massive line that would probably keep them out of the park and out of lines for at least a half hour. Some more numbers. If there are 20 lines with 2 tapstiles each (I don't know the actual number) and it takes 10 seconds per person to go through the process of getting the green light to enter the park, that would mean 240 people could enter the park each minute. A crowd of 6000 when the gates first open would mean a wait of 25 minutes for the last person to get in. That's hard to picture. I know one time we arrived at DHS at 8:30 (before we knew about the unannounced early openings). The line went out past the security checks and wasn't moving because the park hadn't opened yet. Right about then they took the cork out of the bottle and the lines started moving. We were into the park within less than 15 minutes. I can't imagine what a line of 25 minutes would look like.

I've arrived at DHS at 8:45am for a 9am opening, in late September, and not actually gotten into the park until 9:30 before. When we entered the TSMM wait at 120 minutes. I absolutely believe 6000 people are capable of showing up at RD. DHS is the most difficult park to implement the RD strategy with. Too many variables. Even if half that number show up at RD, if they only have one or two bag check lines open it's a terrible, frustrating process to try to get in, while people arriving after you, without bags, zip on past you. I'm going to have to employ my US strategy at WDW from now on. I go in with absolutely nothing in my hands, so we can zip right through.

 

[wisblue]

I've arrived at DHS at 8:45am for a 9am opening, in late September, and not actually gotten into the park until 9:30 before. When we entered the TSMM wait at 120 minutes. I absolutely believe 6000 people are capable of showing up at RD. DHS is the most difficult park to implement the RD strategy with. Too many variables. Even if half that number show up at RD, if they only have one or two bag check lines open it's a terrible, frustrating process to try to get in, while people arriving after you, without bags, zip on past you. I'm going to have to employ my US strategy at WDW from now on. I go in with absolutely nothing in my hands, so we can zip right through.

Then I guess the message would be to get there before 8:45. As the pictures in the easywdw post show, there were precious few people there at 8:15, so there would be no marginal advantage to arriving much before that.

It's still hard for me to picture a number of people that would almost fill the seating area of Fantasmic waiting outside the park gates before they open.

As skeptical as I am about masses being willing to arrive at opening, I am that much more skeptical about masses arriving an hour before opening. The uninformed guest who has a FP+ reservation with a 9-10 AM return time is more likely to think "we have to get there before 10" than "we'd better get there by 8".

This still brings me back to the point that the number of people able to enter the park and get in lines is controlled by the park entry procedure, not the number of people waiting to get in. If all of the gates are open and lines are backed up past the bag check, the people who get in within a few minutes of opening are still going to have a big head start on those masses who are waiting outside.

 

[eangel12]

I've arrived at DHS at 8:45am for a 9am opening, in late September, and not actually gotten into the park until 9:30 before. When we entered the TSMM wait at 120 minutes. I absolutely believe 6000 people are capable of showing up at RD. DHS is the most difficult park to implement the RD strategy with. Too many variables. Even if half that number show up at RD, if they only have one or two bag check lines open it's a terrible, frustrating process to try to get in, while people arriving after you, without bags, zip on past you. I'm going to have to employ my US strategy at WDW from now on. I go in with absolutely nothing in my hands, so we can zip right through.

We had the same experience in September at HS on a "level 1" day! My hubby ran for tickets and by the time I arrived with stroller, stand by was 120 mins and our return time was 10:30am. I took a photo...I'll try to find and post!

 

[wisblue]

We had the same experience in September at HS on a "level 1" day! My hubby ran for tickets and by the time I arrived with stroller, stand by was 120 mins and our return time was 10:30am. I took a photo...I'll try to find and post!

If you didn't get through the gate until 9:30, I'm surprised that the FP return time was as early as 10:30.

Even before FP+, if we went ride to TSMM immediately on opening and rode the ride first with no wait, the FP return times were already later than that.

 

[crostorfer]

If you didn't get through the gate until 9:30, I'm surprised that the FP return time was as early as 10:30.

Even before FP+, if we went ride to TSMM immediately on opening and rode the ride first with no wait, the FP return times were already later than that.

This kind of ties in to what I was alluding to in a previous post. If you are there in low season with a bunch of rookies, a huge majority of them had no idea what a FP even was. They all go straight to standby. Now, everyone who books on site through Disney will know what a FP+ is. Whether or not they will have the fortitude to book their times and stick with them remains to be seen, but the playing field for on site guests has been leveled between first timers and veterans in terms of FP awareness now. I used to count on the 1st timers in low season to not have any idea what they are doing. Now, we're all rather equal.

 

[wisblue]

This also gets back to the fundamental disagreement.

I don't think that just having 3 FP+ reservations handed to them makes inexperienced guests the equals (in terms of efficient park touring) of guests who know what attractions to choose FPs for, what times to select, and how to tour the park the rest of the time.

Ever since TSMM has opened, I never detected any shortage of people who were there at park opening and were determined to get to TSMM as fast as they could. It was a lot worse when the literal rope drop at the end of the street unleashed a horde of guests toward that area. But, we were always able to walk (not run) right to TSMM and ride with a minimal wait. Now that they have eliminated that rope drop, the walk to TSMM is much less hectic, and I don't see that changing.

 

[Laketravis]

Let's not discount the fact that Disney is exerting monumental efforts in educating guests about FP+ before they arrive, something they did not do with legacy FP.

Mickey USB's, phone apps, emails, snail mail, instructional videos, MDE, all sorts of teaching aids.

I really don't think we will be able to count on advantageous conditions that in the past relied primarily on guest ignorance.

 

[wisblue]

Let's not discount the fact that Disney is exerting monumental efforts in educating guests about FP+ before they arrive, something they did not do with legacy FP.

Mickey USB's, phone apps, emails, snail mail, instructional videos, MDE, all sorts of teaching aids.

I really don't think we will be able to count on advantageous conditions that in the past relied primarily on guest ignorance.

I am not discounting or ignoring those things, but I do not think their impact will be that dramatic.

For one thing, even if those monumental efforts to educate are successful, are they going to include telling guests to arrive an hour before scheduled park opening so they can maximize how many things they can get done in addition to their FPs? Disney wants guests to be committed to attending a park. I think they care a lot less about what time they will get there. In fact, if their goal is to spread crowds more evenly throughout the day, they would definitely not be encouraging everyone to get there at opening.

I would also welcome your input on the issue of how many people can actually get into the park in that first 30-60 minutes. You have said that on your Thanksgiving trip you spent a lot of time observing how things were working and talking to CMs. In your extensive report about that, you said that the park entry process was a lot less efficient than it was with the old turnstiles. I assume that you mean by that that fewer people can get through the gates in a given amount of time.

Because we have usually arrived at the gate early enough to get through the turnstiles within 5-10 minutes or less after the first guests are admitted, I don't know how long it takes until there is no longer a constant stream of guests entering the park. But, I do know that there have always been a lot more people behind us than ahead of us. As I said above, until the constant flow of guests stops, the number of people entering the park per minute is controlled by the efficiency of the entry procedure, and not by the number of people crushing to get in.

I agree that the strategy of accumulating a lot of FPs, which succeeded in no small part because of guest ignorance about how the system worked, can no longer be used. But, I think that the strategy of arriving early, which has been touted long before there were any FPs at all, will still be the most successful, even if it is less successful than it used to be.

I know that some people think that FP+ will cause huge lines to build up outside the gates an hour before stated opening. As I said above, I am very skeptical about that. I guess this is one of those things that will take some time to evolve and in the meantime we just have to agree to disagree about how this will play out.

 

[crostorfer]

Let's not discount the fact that Disney is exerting monumental efforts in educating guests about FP+ before they arrive, something they did not do with legacy FP.

Mickey USB's, phone apps, emails, snail mail, instructional videos, MDE, all sorts of teaching aids.

I really don't think we will be able to count on advantageous conditions that in the past relied primarily on guest ignorance.

 

[magicbob]

Of course, how FP+ will eventually affect the number of people arriving at park opening is somewhere between pure speculation and an educated guess on everyone's part.

But, I think there are a number of things that you are overstating.

First, arriving early has ALWAYS been far and away the single most stated piece of advice from guidebooks and websites. And yet, a very high percentage of guests simply can't or won't get up early on their vacations and, even if they think that they will get there at opening, they take longer to get the party ready than they think and end up arriving later.

Second, I think you are overestimating the percentage of guests that employ that much strategy for touring the parks at all. Many guests don't arrive early because they don't want to, but there are probably that many more who don't realize how much of an advantage there is to arriving early. If they see that the park is open from 9 AM to 10 PM, they think that arriving at 11 AM IS early because that will still give them 11 hours in the park.

Third, while there may be some people who wouldn't have come at RD before who may suddenly be inspired to do so because of early FP+ reservations, or because they suddenly came to the realization that arriving at RD is advantageous, that number will be offset to some extent by guests who may have come early before but are now willing to use their later FP+ to take their time getting to the park. I'm not sure which of those forces will be stronger.

Fourth, if someone has a FP+ for that first hour, they may be inclined to arrive only within that first hour, and not at the beginning of the hour. Using DHS as the example if they continue opening 15 minutes or more before the stated time, the people who are there at opening and walk directly to TSMM will be on and off the ride by 9 AM before very many, if any, FP riders have arrived.

Finally, 6000 people at any park when the gates open sounds awfully high to me. I don't know exactly how many lines there are to get into the park, but it seems like it is less than 20. At 300 (or more) people in a line of single and double file, those lines would go way past the ticket booths and probably go past the bag check lines. I think they would open the gates to let people in before they would allow lines to extend back that far. If that many people start arriving that early, maybe the result would be more and earlier openings of the parks before the stated opening times. That would reestablish some gap between real park opening and the first FP return times.

I used a lot of words to get here, but I put this into the category of "I'll wait and see what happens and adapt to it if there is a dramatic change". I don't think Disney wants that kind of a crush at opening and, if it starts to happen, I suspect that they would do something about it.

wisblue, I agree with you (shocking, right?) about the role human nature will likely play in RD remaining a viable strategy. I think many people will INTEND to make it for their early FP+ reservation. But when that alarm clock goes off, they will hit snooze and blow it off. Then there will be others who get up but take longer to get ready and out the door than they expected (or perhaps underestimate the amount of time it will take to get there on WDW transportation, etc.).

 

[bjakmom]

wisblue, I agree with you (shocking, right?) about the role human nature will likely play in RD remaining a viable strategy. I think many people will INTEND to make it for their early FP+ reservation. But when that alarm clock goes off, they will hit snooze and blow it off. Then there will be others who get up but take longer to get ready and out the door than they expected (or perhaps underestimate the amount of time it will take to get there on WDW transportation, etc.).

For exactly these reasons, I also agree that RD has always and will always remain an advantage if you're willing to make sure you are in line at the gate at least 1/2 hour before park opening. What I wonder is what these 9-10AM prebooked FP+s will do to that advantage after that 1st hour - especially once (and I do believe it will come) that is pretty much all that will be left for many headliners days or weeks prior to your trip if you didn't book right away at your 60 day mark.

Did anyone else get the new little booklet they are sending out? They are clearly "SPOON FEEDING" FP+ info to resort guests now. I already received one last week for our end of August trip. It spells out FP+ and MDEx in the simplest of terms and even includes a little fridge magnet in the back that lists what dates you should book your ADRS, your FP+s and do online check in. Can they make it any easier? LOL Maybe off site guests will remain clueless for a while, but over the next couple of years, we will be touring with waaaay more FP educated guests. I have always said, taking away the whole process of getting your family awake, dressed, fed, on the bus and into the park before you can get an FP will totally change the system!

And I had a good laugh at the park by park, page by page "Enchanted must-dos we picked just for you!"
MK: Under the Sea; Big Thunder Mt RR; Wishes
Epcot: Test Track; and Turtle Talk with Crush (yep, that's all they recommended)
HS: Star Tours; Toy Story Mania; Light,Motors, Action!
AK: Expedition Everest; Kilimanjaro Safaris; FOTLK (hello, isn't that closed for now? maybe they know it'll be open by August?)

I'm another 'we'll see' person - I can make the best of anything, but I have lost so much enjoyment for planning these current trips - too much planning and timing. I have totally put on hold any trips that involve the whole family with multiple age groups and interests - that feels like a pita to me as things stand right now.

The biggest difference I experience with USF express passes and FP+ is - NO SET RETURN TIME!! That's a huge advantage and allows me to actually feel like I am on vacation and not still rushing around, keeping hour by hour appts (which I do enough in my real life). I know WDW can't do the same, but prebooking my FP times and only getting 3 a day feels like a double whammy. (where's the smilie with cymbals crashing on either side of my head when I need it?!)

 

[catra121]

Let's not discount the fact that Disney is exerting monumental efforts in educating guests about FP+ before they arrive, something they did not do with legacy FP.

Mickey USB's, phone apps, emails, snail mail, instructional videos, MDE, all sorts of teaching aids.

I really don't think we will be able to count on advantageous conditions that in the past relied primarily on guest ignorance.

I don't know...I would not worry about that too much. Simply because I know many people who I will talk to about their Disney vacations. They might ask me some questions or for some advice...but rarely do they listen to anything I say. I can talk until I am blue in the face about FP...and they still walk away thinking it costs something or that it's too much trouble. I don't think Disney's attempts to educate them will make any greater impact than someone they know telling them about it.

And Disney's education still doesn't tell them how to most efficiently USE the FP+ system. How many times does someone post on here that they got a FP+ for something and they get 20 responses in 5 minutes saying, "Waste of a FP+" or "No need for a FP+ for that." WE know that...but THEY don't know that...and that information certainly WON'T be coming from Disney.

But I seriously think most people won't bother. Even big planners are resistant to making FP+ reservations ahead of time...someone who doesn't want to do any planning definitely won't want to.

I think it will be a very small group of people that Disney's advertising will successfully "educate" about FP+...and I don't think that will be much of an impact at all on the system compared to the legacy FP system.

 

[clsteve]

wisblue, I agree with you (shocking, right?) about the role human nature will likely play in RD remaining a viable strategy. I think many people will INTEND to make it for their early FP+ reservation. But when that alarm clock goes off, they will hit snooze and blow it off. Then there will be others who get up but take longer to get ready and out the door than they expected (or perhaps underestimate the amount of time it will take to get there on WDW transportation, etc.).

Which points to the capacity management part of it to go along with Lake's yield management. I don't think Disney really cares as much if you actually ride - they care very much that you're in the Park they expected and planned for you to be. If all of the advertising, TA's and CM's making FP ressies, and Disney's auto- selection feature can help them norm capacity between the Parks even by 20% or so (since you know they'd love to take a 6 Park and a 2 Park down to at least a 5 and 3). It's a positive for them.

What they do with the missed ressies - just let the standby be shorter or re-allocate for same day ressies - could both be a net positive for RD

 

[wisblue]

Did anyone else get the new little booklet they are sending out? They are clearly "SPOON FEEDING" FP+ info to resort guests now. I already received one last week for our end of August trip. It spells out FP+ and MDEx in the simplest of terms and even includes a little fridge magnet in the back that lists what dates you should book your ADRS, your FP+s and do online check in. Can they make it any easier? LOL

So, it sounds like Disney is trying to lead the horses to water. That's the easy part.

Plus, even if these guests make those reservations, that doesn't direct them to get to the park early, and may make them even less likely to do so if they have later FPs.

 

[Planogirl]

I think that some people are giving those who don't come to the forums too much credit for NOT understanding what to do. I know that there are many who are clueless and seem to choose to stay that way but I agree with a PP that most people are somewhere in between. If not, TSMM fastpasses wouldn't have routinely run out so quickly.

 

[magicbob]

I think that some people are giving those who don't come to the forums too much credit for NOT understanding what to do. I know that there are many who are clueless and seem to choose to stay that way but I agree with a PP that most people are somewhere in between. If not, TSMM fastpasses wouldn't have routinely run out so quickly.

Good point. I've long held the opinion that (although there are SOME clueless people out there), the "super-users" alone could not possibly account for all of the FPs being taken in a day. There also had to be thousands of "average" guests who where at least educated enough about FP to take them on a regular basis.

 

[Laketravis]

You don't spend a billion dollars on something and then not do everything you can to persuade people to use it.

 

[wisblue]

You don't spend a billion dollars on something and then not do everything you can to persuade people to use it.

I'm not sure we are talking about the same thing.

Using FP+ is not exactly the same as arriving at park opening. While guests who get early FP+ reservations may be more inclined to arrive at opening than they would have otherwise, those whose first reservation isn't until 10 AM or later may be less inclined to arrive early.

We will see eventually how these cross currents play out.