Anyone already post that paper FP will be gone at MK as of 1/14?

[magicbob]

And there are a lot of trip reports where people were glad to have fp+. We have used it and it was great to be able schedule the rides and to change them on the fly.

Agreed. FP+ has been a positive experience for some and a negative experience for others.

One of the things that I meant when I talked about fear was people like you who aren't going to WDW for a really long time and being so very worried about something that isn't even in its final form. We used fp+ so it helps that I know what it was like. But by the time you get to WDW things can really be different. I would hate to worry for such a long period of time, especially if it all works out fine by the time you get there.

But, see... I'm not worried OR fearful. Yes, my next trip is not planned for a long time. So, there's plenty of time for things to "settle down" before I have to personally deal with how this impacts MY vacation. But as someone who visits frequently, I (and others) are invested in what the future of Disney is going to look like. Some of us have been aroung a LONG time and seen a LOT of changes over the years... some really good ones and some not so good.

People are wired differently. Some are "gut feeling" types and others are "analytical" types. The "analytical" folks will often poke tons of holes in something, not because we like to complain or we HATE whatever, but because it is a stimulating intellectual exercise. Investigating it from all sides, peeling away the layers of the onion and exposing flaws as well as benefits in an effort to fully understand the subject.

How do you think we got so good at using FP- in the first place?

And some of us derive a tremendous amount of enjoyment from that pursuit of understanding of all things Disney (including the warts/blemishes). It sustains us between trips.

ETA: I think a lot of the "heated" discussions occur when the ISTJs get into debates with the ENFPs (those are not DIS acronyms... Google "Meyers Briggs") because we're wired so differently, what seems self-evident to one seems not only foreign, but sometimes abrasive and inflammatory to the other.

 

[ArwenMarie]

My top 10 FP+ predictions for 2014:

1. HS and EP will continue to be tiered
2. AK and MK will not be tiered
3. The one park per day restriction will stay
4. The allotment of 3 FP's per day will not increase
5. Onsite guests will maintain a scheduling advantage
6. Rope Drop and EMH will no longer be advantageous
7. There will not be additional FP's available for an upcharge
8. FP Kiosk queues will become an issue
9. Standby lines will decrease somewhat from the extremes while FP lines will spread to all attractions (queue equilibrium)
10. The app will still be buggy

I certainly won't mind being wrong on any of these over the next 12 months

I agree with everything except MK will be tiered once they get 7DMT up.

 

[Angel Ariel]

People are wired differently. Some are "gut feeling" types and others are "analytical" types. The "analytical" folks will often poke tons of holes in something, not because we like to complain or we HATE whatever, but because it is a stimulating intellectual exercise. Investigating it from all sides, peeling away the layers of the onion and exposing flaws as well as benefits in an effort to fully understand the subject.

How do you think we got so good at using FP- in the first place?

And some of us derive a tremendous amount of enjoyment from that pursuit of understanding of all things Disney (including the warts/blemishes). It sustains us between trips.

 

[johde]

My top 10 FP+ predictions for 2014:

1. HS and EP will continue to be tiered
2. AK and MK will not be tiered
3. The one park per day restriction will stay
4. The allotment of 3 FP's per day will not increase
5. Onsite guests will maintain a scheduling advantage
6. Rope Drop and EMH will no longer be advantageous
7. There will not be additional FP's available for an upcharge
8. FP Kiosk queues will become an issue
9. Standby lines will decrease somewhat from the extremes while FP lines will spread to all attractions (queue equilibrium)
10. The app will still be buggy

I certainly won't mind being wrong on any of these over the next 12 months

For 2014, I tend to agree with most of them, longer term, I'm not sure.

1. Definitely

2,3. Park Hopping won't happen until MK and AK are tiered. Without all 4 parks tiered, you'd been group 1 at the tiered park then hop for the other 2.

4. yes for most people.

5. yes but the question is how much of an advantage. I see offsite guests eventually being able to book in advance.

6. RD and EMH will always be advantageous. The amount of benefit could change. Everyone is not going to stay open to close.

7. Yes, but Disney may try to offer package deals with extra FP+ instead of free dining during slow season.

8. Potentially yes at times, even though I think off site guests will eventually be able to prebook. AK needed a large group of CM with Ipods to handle Christmas to New Years.

9. I tend to agree. Standby lines for headliners will see a significant decrease. Standby lines everywhere else will increase slightly.

10. I think it will get better, but still not perfect.

 

[TLSnell1981]

I predict Disney will continue to pare back EMH. We aren't rope droppers..don't do mornings. This was one of our favorite perks.

 

[Shaden]

I think one of the biggest advantages for Disney with FP+ is the ability to better manage demand over a time spectrum. Simple management of the times presented when users are scheduling FP+ allows Disney to flatten that demand curve throughout the day. As they push demand out to the earlier and later hours they get closer to RD and park close. The park may still be the most crowded from 11am to 5pm, but more and more guests will be pre-assigned FP times 5 minutes after RD or 20 minutes before park close.

That's why I think there will be more utilization of attractions during those periods in the past when they were under-utilized. Like RD.

Yes I think this is a great point.

This is the second of the points that I have tried to make several times for people who are very optimistic about FP+.

The most common assertion from FP optimists is: "Its going to be great, I am going to book my FPs for late afternoon/evening, that way I will RD and ride standby then I will hit my FPs in the afternoon/eve and skip all the lines"

(Have said this before, so please ignore the post if you have read it)

You highlight half the flaw in this: More people are going to be showing up at RD. The other half: The majority of people will be trying to book the same afternoon/eve FPs.

While there is some speculation about same-day FPs, etc, there is little doubt that the most popular time is going to be afternoon/evening FP.

Which means, its great that you think its an awesome idea, but if thousands of other people do too, you are going to have difficulty getting those times.

The other half, as you mentioned: While MOST people are going to want afternoon/evening FP, there will be SOME that think its an AWESOME idea to start the day with SM, or EE, or Safari, or whatever, and they are going to book FPs for them, first thing. Other folks just wont get the times they want, and will be forced to (or picking the lesser of two evils) book FPs for First thing in the morning. Sure, some of this latter group wont show up, but some of them certainly will.

You are going to have people booked for FP+ at RD. How many, depends probably on the time of year, the number of afternoon FP available, etc. This will diminish the value of RD, the extent to which this is true is yet to be seen and variable depending on crowd levels I am sure.

 

[quest4dl]

I don't think most Disney vacationers plan like we do on the Disboards. I don't think many will know about the system until they get there. So, I doubt most will suddenly change their strategy - i.e. if they weren't rope droppers before, they aren't likely to change to that mode. Perhaps in time this will happen but unlikely during the first year of implementation.

 

[wisblue]

At a typical 80% occupancy level across roughly 25,000 rooms with an average of 3 guests each, even if only 10% of them decide to show up at HS RD, that's 6,000 guests.

Of course, how FP+ will eventually affect the number of people arriving at park opening is somewhere between pure speculation and an educated guess on everyone's part.

But, I think there are a number of things that you are overstating.

First, arriving early has ALWAYS been far and away the single most stated piece of advice from guidebooks and websites. And yet, a very high percentage of guests simply can't or won't get up early on their vacations and, even if they think that they will get there at opening, they take longer to get the party ready than they think and end up arriving later.

Second, I think you are overestimating the percentage of guests that employ that much strategy for touring the parks at all. Many guests don't arrive early because they don't want to, but there are probably that many more who don't realize how much of an advantage there is to arriving early. If they see that the park is open from 9 AM to 10 PM, they think that arriving at 11 AM IS early because that will still give them 11 hours in the park.

Third, while there may be some people who wouldn't have come at RD before who may suddenly be inspired to do so because of early FP+ reservations, or because they suddenly came to the realization that arriving at RD is advantageous, that number will be offset to some extent by guests who may have come early before but are now willing to use their later FP+ to take their time getting to the park. I'm not sure which of those forces will be stronger.

Fourth, if someone has a FP+ for that first hour, they may be inclined to arrive only within that first hour, and not at the beginning of the hour. Using DHS as the example if they continue opening 15 minutes or more before the stated time, the people who are there at opening and walk directly to TSMM will be on and off the ride by 9 AM before very many, if any, FP riders have arrived.

Finally, 6000 people at any park when the gates open sounds awfully high to me. I don't know exactly how many lines there are to get into the park, but it seems like it is less than 20. At 300 (or more) people in a line of single and double file, those lines would go way past the ticket booths and probably go past the bag check lines. I think they would open the gates to let people in before they would allow lines to extend back that far. If that many people start arriving that early, maybe the result would be more and earlier openings of the parks before the stated opening times. That would reestablish some gap between real park opening and the first FP return times.

I used a lot of words to get here, but I put this into the category of "I'll wait and see what happens and adapt to it if there is a dramatic change". I don't think Disney wants that kind of a crush at opening and, if it starts to happen, I suspect that they would do something about it.

 

[GetGlowing]

I don't think most people realize what it takes to be at a park for rope drop, no matter what time the park opens, and no matter what time their first FP+ is for. For MK you have to allow at least an hour from most resorts to get through bag check, and that's if the bus wait is relatively short. If you're at Coronado, god help ya! (Bad bad bus experience there this year).

 

[Angel Ariel]

I don't think most Disney vacationers plan like we do on the Disboards. I don't think many will know about the system until they get there. So, I doubt most will suddenly change their strategy - i.e. if they weren't rope droppers before, they aren't likely to change to that mode. Perhaps in time this will happen but unlikely during the first year of implementation.

While the bolded was true for legacy FP, I do not think it will be for FP+.

A good portion of the reason for the MM+ initiative, as Disney execs have said, is to get people to plan to be on Disney property and not go off property during their stay. FP+ is a part of that strategy. Disney has a vested interest in getting people to use this system much more so than legacy FP.

 

[wisblue]

I have to share this anecdote from our last trip because it just adds to my perception of how totally clueless a lot of WDW guests are.

On Friday, December 27, we got on a DME bus at about 4 PM. On the ride to SSR, we heard the couple behind us talking about making a reservation for a character dinner, and it was obvious that they were talking about making a reservation for that night. As the woman is fiddling around on her phone, she says to her husband "everything says 'not available', maybe they don't do those things over the holidays". And the husband says "or maybe they are already booked for tonight".

When people who plan like this are the competition for making FP+ reservations and arriving at the park early to get rides done, I'm not too worried.

 

[Mad Hattered]

Of course, how FP+ will eventually affect the number of people arriving at park opening is somewhere between pure speculation and an educated guess on everyone's part.

But, I think there are a number of things that you are overstating.

First, arriving early has ALWAYS been far and away the single most stated piece of advice from guidebooks and websites. And yet, a very high percentage of guests simply can't or won't get up early on their vacations and, even if they think that they will get there at opening, they take longer to get the party ready than they think and end up arriving later.

Second, I think you are overestimating the percentage of guests that employ that much strategy for touring the parks at all. Many guests don't arrive early because they don't want to, but there are probably that many more who don't realize how much of an advantage there is to arriving early. If they see that the park is open from 9 AM to 10 PM, they think that arriving at 11 AM IS early because that will still give them 11 hours in the park.

Third, while there may be some people who wouldn't have come at RD before who may suddenly be inspired to do so because of early FP+ reservations, or because they suddenly came to the realization that arriving at RD is advantageous, that number will be offset to some extent by guests who may have come early before but are now willing to use their later FP+ to take their time getting to the park. I'm not sure which of those forces will be stronger.

Fourth, if someone has a FP+ for that first hour, they may be inclined to arrive only within that first hour, and not at the beginning of the hour. Using DHS as the example if they continue opening 15 minutes or more before the stated time, the people who are there at opening and walk directly to TSMM will be on and off the ride by 9 AM before very many, if any, FP riders have arrived.

Finally, 6000 people at any park when the gates open sounds awfully high to me. I don't know exactly how many lines there are to get into the park, but it seems like it is less than 20. At 300 (or more) people in a line of single and double file, those lines would go way past the ticket booths and probably go past the bag check lines. I think they would open the gates to let people in before they would allow lines to extend back that far. If that many people start arriving that early, maybe the result would be more and earlier openings of the parks before the stated opening times. That would reestablish some gap between real park opening and the first FP return times.

I used a lot of words to get here, but I put this into the category of "I'll wait and see what happens and adapt to it if there is a dramatic change". I don't think Disney wants that kind of a crush at opening and, if it starts to happen, I suspect that they would do something about it.

It pretty much looks like this on any given Tuesday during the slow times that we have visited.

http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorized/touring-hollywood-studios-with-tiered-fastpass-november-20-2013/

 

[Angel Ariel]

I have to share this anecdote from our last trip because it just adds to my perception of how totally clueless a lot of WDW guests are.

On Friday, December 27, we got on a DME bus at about 4 PM. On the ride to SSR, we heard the couple behind us talking about making a reservation for a character dinner, and it was obvious that they were talking about making a reservation for that night. As the woman is fiddling around on her phone, she says to her husband "everything says 'not available', maybe they don't do those things over the holidays". And the husband says "or maybe they are already booked for tonight".

When people who plan like this are the competition for making FP+ reservations and arriving at the park early to get rides done, I'm not too worried.

Just as I would venture to say DISers are not the majority in terms of planning-style, I would also say that people who are that uninformed are also not the majority.

 

[dayvewc]

Just as I would venture to say DISers are not the majority in terms of planning-style, I would also say that people who are that uninformed are also not the majority.

I'm not sure. Anytime I hear someone say something similar, I'm always reminded of the quote "Never underestimate the stupidity of large groups of people."

Or something like that.

 

[quest4dl]

I believe the mindset of most people on vacation is to relax. And unless you have picked up a guidebook or visited a Disney board, you wouldn't have an inkling the type of planning that goes on. I have made brief information sheets which I make available to friends and they even find that little bit of information too much to digest.

My main concern is rides that did not have fastpass lanes now have them. So previously fast-loading rides such as Pirates take considerably longer. With the limit of three fastpasses, this is more a concern than it would have been in the past. I do think most of the issues will occur during peak seasons.

 

[mummabear]

I agree with all of this except no advantage to rope drop. Even at Disneyland where all the guests know exactly what they are doing and people are in the parks an hour earlier than off site guests, there is still an advantage to rope drop. It just will always be. And there is an advantage to staying until the park closes. Perhaps not as big an advantage but it's just not possible to change how people are. No matter what Disney does or tries it will still be the most crowded from 11am-5 pm.

Just like no matter how many early bird specials you have, a grocery store is crowded from 5-6pm.

I agree here, I understand that RD is great strategy but flying from NZ we atr on an 8 hour time difference and with 2 (3 any day now) kids under 4 we will just never make it until 11ish and then close the park. I like the aspect of FP+ that I could book TSMM since by the time we get there FP- is out of allocation, I like that meet and greet have been added as on our last trip that is where we spent all our time in 45 min+ lines. However we were easily pulling 5+ FP-'s and again I don't see how they can increase the FP network but reduce your allocation. I don't necessarily mind them being tiered if I had more than 3 (largely depending on the rules)

 

[mummabear]

I have to share this anecdote from our last trip because it just adds to my perception of how totally clueless a lot of WDW guests are.

On Friday, December 27, we got on a DME bus at about 4 PM. On the ride to SSR, we heard the couple behind us talking about making a reservation for a character dinner, and it was obvious that they were talking about making a reservation for that night. As the woman is fiddling around on her phone, she says to her husband "everything says 'not available', maybe they don't do those things over the holidays". And the husband says "or maybe they are already booked for tonight".

When people who plan like this are the competition for making FP+ reservations and arriving at the park early to get rides done, I'm not too worried.

 

[lovethattink]

I have some questions. If memory serves me right, from around Halloween through Christmas time there were people double and even triple dipping between FP- and FP+. FP lines were crazy with often waits over 30 minutes (remember reading one report where someone stood 3 hours in FP line for Soarin'). There were pictures of people holding large amounts of FP at one time.

So now at AK and soon at MK the maximum number of FP will go down to 3 and at just one park. Will they keep the number of FP allowable per attraction per day the same? Or with demand becoming 3 per person, will it lower the amount allowable per attraction?

 

[crostorfer]

I have to share this anecdote from our last trip because it just adds to my perception of how totally clueless a lot of WDW guests are. On Friday, December 27, we got on a DME bus at about 4 PM. On the ride to SSR, we heard the couple behind us talking about making a reservation for a character dinner, and it was obvious that they were talking about making a reservation for that night. As the woman is fiddling around on her phone, she says to her husband "everything says 'not available', maybe they don't do those things over the holidays". And the husband says "or maybe they are already booked for tonight". When people who plan like this are the competition for making FP+ reservations and arriving at the park early to get rides done, I'm not too worried.

Except the reservation CMs are hard selling the FP+. When I called to make my reservation, December 31st, I was given a lengthy MB explanation, given explicit instructions on how to log into MDE and instructed to make an account immediately, and told 5 times to make ride reservations as soon as possible.

 

[wisblue]

It pretty much looks like this on any given Tuesday during the slow times that we have visited.

http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorized/touring-hollywood-studios-with-tiered-fastpass-november-20-2013/

That looks pretty typical. It was pretty much like that on Sunday, December 28 when we visited, except that everything was an hour earlier because the official opening time (no EMH) was 8 AM.

I don't know how this translates into numbers, but think about it this way. I think I saw that the entire seating capacity for the Fantasmic theater is about 7000. I think it is safe to say that the number of people in the area between the ticket booths and the turnstiles is nowhere close to that number.

Even if 6000 people were to arrive at the park for opening, the process of getting them through the gates would greatly reduce the number able to physically enter the park in that first hour. Anyone arriving right at opening would find a massive line that would probably keep them out of the park and out of lines for at least a half hour.

Some more numbers. If there are 20 lines with 2 tapstiles each (I don't know the actual number) and it takes 10 seconds per person to go through the process of getting the green light to enter the park, that would mean 240 people could enter the park each minute. A crowd of 6000 when the gates first open would mean a wait of 25 minutes for the last person to get in. That's hard to picture.

I know one time we arrived at DHS at 8:30 (before we knew about the unannounced early openings). The line went out past the security checks and wasn't moving because the park hadn't opened yet. Right about then they took the cork out of the bottle and the lines started moving. We were into the park within less than 15 minutes. I can't imagine what a line of 25 minutes would look like.