Annual Pass Rumors??

[MICKIMINI]

Disney could use a *spokesperson* that is likeable, articulate and immersed in Disney *culture*. Chapek is all dollar and cents and talks and thinks like an accountant. Good spokesperson he is not. Creativity? None at all. Half the problem is the awkwardness with which Disney executives speak...two people can say the exact same thing and their audience has a totally different reaction to the way it is said. Guests do notice and are offended by the sometimes insulting way these people speak to us.

Bring out the Imagineers and stellar CM's and let them be creative as there are ways to bring back the magic. Make guests feel wanted - that's a no brainer. Get to know your audience as goodness knows we will gladly voice our opinions as most of us here have seen you through decades of good days and bad. We spend big money, act as ambassadors, help friends plan trips - you couldn't ask for a better audience! A little pixie dust would be appreciated! Just my vent!

First trip 1973, DVC since 1996, AP

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

So Disney is certainly generalizing - but if you fall into the "unfavorable" category - you're saying there's nothing wrong with being labeled as such? If I'm a CM working at Disney, the messaging from my leadership is now that if you're an AP holder, you're an unfavorable guest - so treating you as someone who is unfavorable is no big deal right? I can give preference to the favorable guests.

Can you see how this can have a trickle down effect? When you're a leader, what you say matters and can have unforeseen implications - even if in your mind you're talking strictly about financials - the people who work for you may apply what you said in different ways.

Since you think it is a neutral term - would you be cool if Disney asked you and everyone else they deemed unfavorable to wear a shirt saying "unfavorable guest" around the parks? It is a value neutral term.

I'm a little surprised that you think people are acting entitled to be thought of as more than unfavorable though, especially if you're spending significant amounts of money.

Just so we're clear here - the word unfavorable means "expressing or showing a lack of approval or support" or "not pleasing" - a synonym for "unfavorable" is "negative".

I will say though that Freshbaked had an interesting video saying that Disney may not be applying the "unfavorable guest mix" to all Magic Key holders. What he believes Disney meant was that because the Park Pass bucket is the same for all Magic Key holders, the lower tiers are taking all of the weekend dates that are not blacked out months in advance, causing the higher tiers who don't book Park Passes months in advance (since they aren't blacked out) to be blocked from getting Park Passes on those weekends. That is his assessment of the "unfavorable guest mix".

I honestly don't think it tracks with what Chapek was talking about though, as he was focused on Disneyland ticket revenue when he talked about "unfavorable attendance mix" - meaning too many APs were coming to the parks and lowering ticket revenue.

The weird thing is on the transcript of the earnings call I can't find the words "unfavorable" or "attendance mix" ... https://seekingalpha.com/article/45...k-on-q3-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript

Warning: This post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinions.

Liquidice. It was not in the transcript of the call. It was on page 7 of a written report that accompanied the call entitled "THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY REPORTS THIRD QUARTER and NINE MONTHS EARNINGS FOR FISCAL 2022." https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2022/08/q3-fy22-earnings.pdf

"Disney Parks, Experiences and Products​

Disney Parks, Experiences and Products revenues for the quarter increased to $7.4 billion compared to $4.3 billion in the prior-year quarter. Segment operating income increased $1.8 billion to $2.2 billion compared to $0.4 billion in the prior-year quarter. Higher operating results for the quarter reflected increases at domestic parks and experiences and, to a lesser extent, at international parks and resorts. Operating income growth at our domestic parks and experiences was due to higher volumes and increased guest spending, partially offset by higher costs. Higher volumes were due to increases in attendance, occupied room nights and cruise ship sailings. Cruise ships were operating during the entire current quarter while sailings were suspended in the prior-year quarter. Guest spending growth was due to an increase in average per capita ticket revenue and higher average daily hotel room rates. The increase in average per capita ticket revenue was due to the introduction of Genie+ and Lightning Lane in the first quarter of the current fiscal year and a reduced impact from promotions at Walt Disney World Resort, partially offset by an unfavorable attendance mix at Disneyland Resort. Higher costs were primarily due to volume growth, cost inflation and new guest offerings. Our domestic parks and resorts were open for the entire current quarter, whereas Disneyland Resort was open for 65 days of the prior-year quarter, and Walt Disney World Resort operated at reduced capacity in the prior-year quarter." [Emphasis Added.] ("The Walt Disney Company Reports Third Quarter and Nine Month Earnings for Fiscal Year 2022", page 7, https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2022/08/q3-fy22-earnings.pdf, accessed 2:50 p.m. August 13, 2022.)​

 

[HopperFan]

YIKES, I didn't view this thread for days and WOW talk about a deep deep rabbit hole ... on a conspiracy level. I think too many are taking some of what they say as straight talk when it is obviously far from it. Break it down, they are talking out both sides of their mouth to impress shareholders, much was contradictory and improper use of words. I like to use the fun word "sophistry" as they think they are so smart and everyone else is so dumb. I'm not going to nit pick comments I think are a bit out there I'll just say ~

Disney is no where near as smart in technology as folks are giving them credit for. They actually prove daily their reputation for faulty technology. They are above many others in what they provide, but they have a hard time not dropping the ball on a regular basis.

Disney has NEVER EVER maximized the capability of what their software could have done. Before MagicBands (and I was a test subject so I've had them since day 1) I spent an hour with a CM who was software/IT. He was telling me all the capabilities of the MB RFID .... IF IF IF ... Disney writes the software to maximize. He gave me lots of examples of what they could do, and some of you have posted similar thoughts ... guess what, never happened. I think they enjoyed the short term cash cow of the basics (and Memory Maker) and didn't spend the time or money to fully develop.

There are way too many holes in the AP spending theories, too many. We honestly aren't much different than everyday guests, we actually have MORE disposable income because our trips don't include super expensive tickets. Honestly if they were tracking as much as folks think, their response to us would be more in line with what the original plan was.

If APs were going away we would not be able to renew. We will never all end at the same time so if the are going away just stop the renewals now. Why wait - according to them parks are at capacity - why say one thing and do another.

Disney executives "might" be good at their jobs but they are horrible public relations people, they are terrible at speaking appropriately, they are offensive at times, they obviously spend no time getting to know the parks division or their customers, and their arrogance that we are all stupid is astounding.

The parks are being poorly run (mostly due to lack of CMs), their "capacity" stories are laughable, they don't understand what demand means because they use it in contrary contexts, they are not making any cohesive plans for the future based on their own presentations and they are letting the worse thing happen ......... people making up all kinds of scenarios. None of which is helpful.

Bottom line NO ONE KNOWS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO APs, especially in WDW. WDW needs all their guests, the AP and the off property, it can't survive just on WDW Resort guests. I feel bad for the DVC because they have committed to vacation at Disney and if they bought enough points for several trips, no AP hurts. All I know is I have one, I'll keep renewing it and if they ever take it away ... I will be vacationing elsewhere most the time. As a shareholder I will continue to vote against the Board and Bobby.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

It is but I don't see how they can bring back APs for one and not the other.

Warning. This post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinions.

Your post was questioning whether Disney could have annual passes (or magic keys at DLR) at Disney World and not have them at Disneyland.
I think they are finding that out right about now. All MKs are not being sold at DLR. Right now, the earliest of these are in their renewal window -- 40 days prior to expiration. There is no renewal option provided. They cannot make park reservations, dining reservations etc past their expiration date.

Chapek's comment about "unfavorable attendance mix" was about Disneyland.

At WDW, Pixies are still being sold. The other tiers are suspended. This is consistent with McCarthy saying they had capped the number of outstanding annual passes.
The character passes are already a month into our renewal window -- 60 days prior to expiration. All character passes are able to be renewed into any of the four tiers depending on eligibility.

It appears to me we are about to see whether or not WDW gets to go forward with an AP program and DLR does not.

 

[jujubiee4]

It's been more than just a few years. Well before the pandemic, Iger said in more than one conference call that they were trying to slightly reduce attendance at a higher price point. In other words: they are happy to have the less-profitable guests not show up.


That ship sailed a LONG time ago. There was a discussion board back in the day that was frequented by CMs, who often referred to APs as "Passh***s" due to an oversized sense of entitlement that enough APers bring with them to be noticeable.


Disney is a distinctly average timeshare operator/developer. To be fair, they learned quickly that they didn't have to be any better than that. OKW is much more like the "other" timeshares in Orlando, but it turned out to be overkill for what buyers were looking for, hence the "2nd Generation" resort design at BWV, BCV, VWL, and SSR with significantly less common space, postage-stamp-sized balconies, etc.

I agree I have heard this personally many times with a neighbor that use to work at Disney. When she would
have BBQ's and other Disney employees would be there I overheard this term plenty.

 

[mdoc]

So how much longer do folks think Disney will allow AP holders to renew into a different tier of pass? I have a Pixie Dust pass, since that's what is still being sold. If I can, I might renew into a Pirate Pass (or not - the Pixie works fine for me, but not for some family members I might want to go with). If a lot of those who buy the Pixie because it's all they can get proceed to renew into a different tier, doesn't that defeat Disney's intent to not sell the higher tier passes? So aren't they likely to stop allowing it?

 

[Donald Duck888]

As a shareholder I will continue to vote against the Board and Bobby.

Do all people who own stock in Disney get to vote? I bought a few shares a while back and had no idea I might be able to vote.

 

[DebbieB]

Do all people who own stock in Disney get to vote? I bought a few shares a while back and had no idea I might be able to vote.

You should receive notice before the annual meeting, along with a proxy vote form. The thing to remember is 1 share = 1 vote. Those who have a large number of shares will have the most clout.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

So how much longer do folks think Disney will allow AP holders to renew into a different tier of pass? I have a Pixie Dust pass, since that's what is still being sold. If I can, I might renew into a Pirate Pass (or not - the Pixie works fine for me, but not for some family members I might want to go with). If a lot of those who buy the Pixie because it's all they can get proceed to renew into a different tier, doesn't that defeat Disney's intent to not sell the higher tier passes? So aren't they likely to stop allowing it?

Warning. This post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinions.

No one knows these answers except Disney and they are silent.

My wild .. guess is they will continue to allow upgrades as long as they continue to allow renewals. They capped the number of passholders, not the tiers or the number of days per year. They deal with these in the hundreds of thousands so whether or not you are a Pixie or a Sorcerer is not a concern to Disney. Think macro, not individual. I think the WDW AP program capped at the present number of outstanding passes will go forward without any significant change.

As to opening new sales at WDW, it is tricky. Even if say 10,000 people do not renew their passes, it may not be enough to reopen sales to the public. Once they reopen it will be a tsunami of people trying to buy passes. So, how long do sales stay open to sell 10,000 APs? A month? A week? Thirty minutes? To open sales and snap it shut could create more bad PR for Disney than it is worth. The public is just now figuring out that sales closed because Disney capped the numbers. What next? A waiting list for new AP sales? Right now they are allowing Pixies to FL residents. But they have to wait a year to upgrade. They are continuing for existing passholders. That is as far as the program goes right now.

 

[Liquidice]

That ship sailed a LONG time ago. There was a discussion board back in the day that was frequented by CMs, who often referred to APs as "Passh***s" due to an oversized sense of entitlement that enough APers bring with them to be noticeable.

I must be lucky because I've never had a CM be rude to me as a result of me saying I'm an Annual Passholder or using my AP discount or anything. I don't generally have a sense of entitlement I don't think though.

I was more thinking that APs may be treated worse by default, not for acting entitled but just for being an AP since Chapek has labeled APs "unfavorable guests". It might be a gross misinterpretation of what Chapek means, but calling a group of your guests "unfavorable" can certainly lead to people misunderstanding what you meant.

Personally, I'm of the opinion that as an executive of a company - publicly you don't speak ill of your customers. Disney used to be like that too, but it doesn't seem to be that way with this current group of executives.

 

[peabody58]

Warning. This post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinions.

This always makes me smile when I see it.

 

[Chuck wright]

Hey! have any rumors come out about when they will bring back the Annual Passes? We're going in August of this year, and June of next year, and I'd really like to get a pass for both trips.

Also, if they do come back before our August trip, can I upgrade to annual passes while there??


TIA!!!!

Seems based on CEO’s comments on earnings calls that they make much more from non pass holders .. my prediction is that as long as the economy is coming back and people are willing to pay the higher daily / weekly prices we will not see the annual passes come back .. I think that if they do come back it will be solely for dvc and Florida residents …. Gone are the days where you buy an annual pass and visit for 20 plus days a year …

 

[Chuck wright]

Warning. This post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinions.

No one knows these answers except Disney and they are silent.

My wild .. guess is they will continue to allow upgrades as long as they continue to allow renewals. They capped the number of passholders, not the tiers or the number of days per year. They deal with these in the hundreds of thousands so whether or not you are a Pixie or a Sorcerer is not a concern to Disney. Think macro, not individual. I think the WDW AP program capped at the present number of outstanding passes will go forward without any significant change.

As to opening new sales at WDW, it is tricky. Even if say 10,000 people do not renew their passes, it may not be enough to reopen sales to the public. Once they reopen it will be a tsunami of people trying to buy passes. So, how long do sales stay open to sell 10,000 APs? A month? A week? Thirty minutes? To open sales and snap it shut could create more bad PR for Disney than it is worth. The public is just now figuring out that sales closed because Disney capped the numbers. What next? A waiting list for new AP sales? Right now they are allowing Pixies to FL residents. But they have to wait a year to upgrade. They are continuing for existing passholders. That is as far as the program goes right now.

I would not be surprised if they get rid of annual passes 100 percent

 

[Chuck wright]

So how much longer do folks think Disney will allow AP holders to renew into a different tier of pass? I have a Pixie Dust pass, since that's what is still being sold. If I can, I might renew into a Pirate Pass (or not - the Pixie works fine for me, but not for some family members I might want to go with). If a lot of those who buy the Pixie because it's all they can get proceed to renew into a different tier, doesn't that defeat Disney's intent to not sell the higher tier passes? So aren't they likely to stop allowing it?

https://www.disneydining.com/disneys-message-seems-clear-annual-passholders-not-welcome-jb1/

 

[Chuck wright]

https://www.disneydining.com/disneys-message-seems-clear-annual-passholders-not-welcome-jb1/

https://www.sfgate.com/disneyland/article/disneyland-magic-keys-expiring-17354727.php

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

https://www.disneydining.com/disneys-message-seems-clear-annual-passholders-not-welcome-jb1/

Warning. This post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinions.

I have to disagree. That recent 8/10/22 earnings report statement was specifically referencing Disneyland; not Disney World.

Also, all sales are stopped at Disneyland.
Disney stopped renewals of MKs in Disneyland Resort.
Their renewal windows for new MKs started July 16th and no renewals have been allowed. The new purchases expire starting August 24th.
Disneyland is in the Los Angeles Basin -- Anaheim. All residents of Southern California are eligible for the resident only MKs That covers a population of 24 million!
Prior to the pandemic they had 1,000,000 passholders. Passholders were supposedly clogging the parks. It may also be that they had an "unfavorable" passholder behavior issue due to ever growing gang issues in SoCal.
Chapek reported in 2020 that 50% of the crowd in DLR parks consisted of passholders Chapek also reported in 2020 that local guests per day spend rate was less than vacationers who traveled and spent 5 to 7 days.


At Disney World the facts are very different.
It appears less than 1/3 of the crowd consists of passholders -- maybe less.
It appears about 17% are foreign visitors.
Many more passholder guests stay on-site or in one of the 15 good neighbor hotels and draw reservations from the same bucket as ticket holders -- indicating they are welcome guests.
There is a booming DVC business in WDW.
Many more passholders travel to WDW so they do consume more food and beverages. They buy merch. They act much more like ticketed vacationers.
The population of greater Orlando is only about 2.7 million and the ratio of retirees is higher in that figure.
Disney is presently renewing character annual passes into any of the four tiers of passes depending on passholder eligibility. The window for character passes opened July 10th -- 60 days prior to the expiration of the first ones sold.
Disney is still selling Pixie passes in Florida, which after a year can be upgraded.

Ms. McCarthy, CFO of Disney, did state in Q3 22 that Disney did restrict the number of annual passes sold
The following article said the same in August 2021 right before they went on sale. So, somebody knew something about it then.
https://allears.net/2021/08/30/disney-world-confirms-annual-pass-sales-will-be-limited/

Ms. McCarthy was also asked how they would respond if the demand dropped. She said they had levers like adjusting block-out dates for existing APs. She did not say they would start sales again. Selling APs is a mid to long term obligation. Adjusting APs is a short term remedy. Chapek also spoke of having new management tools with the park reservation system that enabled them to manage and act in real time instead of just quarterly price adjustments. He was speaking of the reservation and bucket system. They have already limited the number of APs sold at WDW to their satisfaction.

So, I disagree that all passholders are not welcome. That does not appear to be true. Articles stating such are taking what was a financial statement out of context and broadly applying it to all domestic parks.

I think Disney is very seriously considering quietly letting MKs expire and will see how attendance figures read during the autumn and winter without MKs.
There is a lot of angst on many forums now. This is the age of social media. Disney knows how the most loyal base feels, but they cannot let that swamp the parks.
These are red hot issues for their loyal base and Disney's response is crickets. That tells me they are actively choosing to be silent right now. Unfortunately they cannot jump in and kill the misinformation -- like APs will be sold by the end of 2022 or that they might have changed their mind about giving a renewal opportunity during the renewal window to MKs. In the age of social media, it is better not to publish or engage in some hot buttons. Chapek did say their data showed the demand was not dropping and they believed this was no longer post covid revenge travel -- it was the new normal. Considering park capacity and other issues, now is the best time to work with far fewer APs or go without MKs and see how the numbers shake out. They have record profits from the parks. Now is the time to do that.

 

[Chuck wright]

What is more likely is for them to get rid of annual pass and instead offer one day passes at a discount if they predict attendance is going to be low for a certain day - that will draw in the Orlando folks.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

What is more likely is for them to get rid of annual pass and instead offer one day passes at a discount if they predict attendance is going to be low for a certain day - that will draw in the Orlando folks.

Warning. This post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinions.

Not likely.

Passholders are very different at WDW. They are out-of-staters, in-state but travel to WDW and stay on-site like vacationers, locals, locals who take stay-cations and stay on-site, locals who sometimes stay on-site etc. They are less than !/3 of the parks' attendance and Disney has four parks, Disney Springs and two water parks +ESPN etc. Destroying all annual passes would likely crash the WDW DVC ownership market. It would disrupt their agreement with 15 good neighbor hotels and send hoards of people to Universal Orlando, Sea World and the other vacation venues in Florida.

Further, Disney is still selling Pixie passes in Florida. They are still building DVC towers. They are still renewing all current APs in Florida. They have a limit on the number of passes sold. That is not unreasonable.

It is only the DLR annual MK program that is currently shut down.

The idea of simply lower priced tickets now and then to draw "Orlando folks" as a substitute for an annual pass program at WDW is unlikely.

 

[Upatnoon]

Warning. This post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinions.

Not likely.

Passholders are very different at WDW. They are out-of-staters, in-state but travel to WDW and stay on-site like vacationers, locals, locals who take stay-cations and stay on-site, locals who sometimes stay on-site etc. They are less than !/3 of the parks' attendance and Disney has four parks, Disney Springs and two water parks +ESPN etc. Destroying all annual passes would likely crash the WDW DVC ownership market. It would disrupt their agreement with 15 good neighbor hotels and send hoards of people to Universal Orlando, Sea World and the other vacation venues in Florida.

Further, Disney is still selling Pixie passes in Florida. They are still building DVC towers. They are still renewing all current APs in Florida. They have a limit on the number of passes sold. That is not unreasonable.

It is only the DLR annual MK program that is currently shut down.

The idea of simply lower priced tickets now and then to draw "Orlando folks" as a substitute for an annual pass program at WDW is unlikely.

Disney has a ton more potential capacity in Florida than they do in California. I'm sure they want to keep the AP revenue flowing.

Backing off the AP throttle while dealing with staffing issues makes sense.

I doubt they will get rid of the APs in California as well. They may cost more and have more limitations, but do they want to get rid of that big chunk of money? Seems unlikely, but we shall see what happens.

 

[Mexacajun]

Warning. This post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinions

Because all signs point to APs not returning anytime soon, I believe they will be brought back within a month. Because nothing they do seems to make sense.