Annual Pass Rumors??

[fumanchu2488]

Warning. This post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinions.

Not likely.

Passholders are very different at WDW. They are out-of-staters, in-state but travel to WDW and stay on-site like vacationers, locals, locals who take stay-cations and stay on-site, locals who sometimes stay on-site etc. They are less than !/3 of the parks' attendance and Disney has four parks, Disney Springs and two water parks +ESPN etc. Destroying all annual passes would likely crash the WDW DVC ownership market. It would disrupt their agreement with 15 good neighbor hotels and send hoards of people to Universal Orlando, Sea World and the other vacation venues in Florida.

Further, Disney is still selling Pixie passes in Florida. They are still building DVC towers. They are still renewing all current APs in Florida. They have a limit on the number of passes sold. That is not unreasonable.

It is only the DLR annual MK program that is currently shut down.

The idea of simply lower priced tickets now and then to draw "Orlando folks" as a substitute for an annual pass program at WDW is unlikely.

I think the big issue here is that Disney really missed the mark with the 'reintroduction' of AP during COVID. I think they were a bit hesitant to significantly change the program or significantly increase the price at the time, but looking back I bet they wish they could have that back.

You know it's bad when your on these boards and people seemed pleasantly surprised with the new system. They either should have completely revamped the system or jacked prices up 40-50% (or more). That is what makes it hard to predict what will happen.

Could they scrap the program again and revamp it? Or will they wait until the end of this renewal cycle and then jack up prices? My bet is just to go with the latter. In all honesty, the break even point for APs should probably be closer to 30 days or more in the parks. Meaning a $1,700 top tier pass instead of a $1,300 pass. Which in Disney math means they probably should have had the price of the AP closer to $1,900.

 

[COASTIEandMATE]

Warning. This post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinions.

Not likely.

Passholders are very different at WDW. They are out-of-staters, in-state but travel to WDW and stay on-site like vacationers, locals, locals who take stay-cations and stay on-site, locals who sometimes stay on-site etc. They are less than !/3 of the parks' attendance and Disney has four parks, Disney Springs and two water parks +ESPN etc. Destroying all annual passes would likely crash the WDW DVC ownership market. It would disrupt their agreement with 15 good neighbor hotels and send hoards of people to Universal Orlando, Sea World and the other vacation venues in Florida.

Further, Disney is still selling Pixie passes in Florida. They are still building DVC towers. They are still renewing all current APs in Florida. They have a limit on the number of passes sold. That is not unreasonable.

It is only the DLR annual MK program that is currently shut down.

The idea of simply lower priced tickets now and then to draw "Orlando folks" as a substitute for an annual pass program at WDW is unlikely.

Disney is building a new DVC Tower next to the Disneyland Hotel right now...

 

[Pooh's World]

I think the big issue here is that Disney really missed the mark with the 'reintroduction' of AP during COVID. I think they were a bit hesitant to significantly change the program or significantly increase the price at the time, but looking back I bet they wish they could have that back.

You know it's bad when your on these boards and people seemed pleasantly surprised with the new system. They either should have completely revamped the system or jacked prices up 40-50% (or more). That is what makes it hard to predict what will happen.

Could they scrap the program again and revamp it? Or will they wait until the end of this renewal cycle and then jack up prices? My bet is just to go with the latter. In all honesty, the break even point for APs should probably be closer to 30 days or more in the parks. Meaning a $1,700 top tier pass instead of a $1,300 pass. Which in Disney math means they probably should have had the price of the AP closer to $1,900.

That's a pretty unreasonable expectation for out of state AP holders.
Not only is it hard to get 30 vacation days for Disney, but the cost of lodging starts to really add up.
A 30 day break even point is highly unreasonable and useless.

 

[fumanchu2488]

That's a pretty unreasonable expectation for out of state AP holders.
Not only is it hard to get 30 vacation days for Disney, but the cost of lodging starts to really add up.
A 30 day break even point is highly unreasonable and useless.

Which is I think the point. Also, the 30 days was developed assuming three (3) 10 day trips. Each ticket is around $550 for 10 days (depending on time of year). If you do 3 separate 5 day trips then the cost per day is much higher.

The point being, I think $1,300 was way too low. Even if you consider it is $1,400 with memory maker, it still seems too low. The breakeven calculation is impossible to run since it really is a function of how many days each trip is and when those trips occur. It's different math for everyone.

 

[randumb0]

I am looking forward to UO's AP Appreciation Days through the end of September

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

Because all signs point to APs not returning anytime soon, I believe they will be brought back within a month. Because nothing they do seems to make sense.

Disney is building a new DVC Tower next to the Disneyland Hotel right now...

Warning. This post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinions.

That is clearly a piece of evidence tending to show Magic Keys or some variant will continue.

 

[jo-jo]

I've lost track of who believes what, but just to hear my own voice. I think it stinks DVC can't buy APs. I'd even be happy with the pixie pass. In fact I'd be thrilled to pay $400 for a weekday pass.

 

[SL6827]

I've lost track of who believes what, but just to hear my own voice. I think it stinks DVC can't buy APs. I'd even be happy with the pixie pass. In fact I'd be thrilled to pay $400 for a weekday pass.

I agree. That AP discount for a direct sale was a worthwhile perk. But hey, Disney is getting thier cake and eating it too now.

 

[Pooh's World]

Which is I think the point. Also, the 30 days was developed assuming three (3) 10 day trips. Each ticket is around $550 for 10 days (depending on time of year). If you do 3 separate 5 day trips then the cost per day is much higher.

The point being, I think $1,300 was way too low. Even if you consider it is $1,400 with memory maker, it still seems too low. The breakeven calculation is impossible to run since it really is a function of how many days each trip is and when those trips occur. It's different math for everyone.

30 Days is unrealistic. Unless you are retired, very hard for someone who is out of state (and not a border state to Florida) to take that much time off just to go to one location.

And $1300 isn't really $1300. You have to include tax which bumps it up to the $1500 range. ($1600 with memory maker which used to be free)

30 Days on 3 10 day trips you are looking at least $3150 on lodging. And that assumes the cheapest decent off site lodging possible since a 10 day trip will at the very least bump into a Fri/Sat stay which is more expensive.

Then you have to factor in the airfare for 3 trips which will very depending on your location but will be costly.

And then food for $30 days and transportation cost (rental car, UBER, LYNX bus)

Only the richest people could follow your AP pricing structure. If the breakeven point is 30 days then very few people would buy it.

 

[fumanchu2488]

.

 

[fumanchu2488]

30 Days is unrealistic. Unless you are retired, very hard for someone who is out of state (and not a border state to Florida) to take that much time off just to go to one location.

And $1300 isn't really $1300. You have to include tax which bumps it up to the $1500 range. ($1600 with memory maker which used to be free)

30 Days on 3 10 day trips you are looking at least $3150 on lodging. And that assumes the cheapest decent off site lodging possible since a 10 day trip will at the very least bump into a Fri/Sat stay which is more expensive.

Then you have to factor in the airfare for 3 trips which will very depending on your location but will be costly.

And then food for $30 days and transportation cost (rental car, UBER, LYNX bus)

Only the richest people could follow your AP pricing structure. If the breakeven point is 30 days then very few people would buy it.

You missed the point. I arbitrarily picked cheap dates. Looking at October 20th, a 7 day ticket is $720 including tax. So if you went the October 20th 2022 then October 13th 2023 you would spend $1,440 on park tickets plus $350 for memory maker for a total of $1,790. That is a week in a hotel each year. There is no reason that an AP shouldn’t be 10-20% higher than that at a minimum.

 

[Pooh's World]

You missed the point. I arbitrarily picked cheap dates. Looking at October 20th, a 7 day ticket is $720 including tax. So if you went the October 20th 2022 then October 13th 2023 you would spend $1,440 on park tickets plus $350 for memory maker for a total of $1,790. That is a week in a hotel each year. There is no reason that an AP shouldn’t be 10-20% higher than that at a minimum.

Doesn't matter. Bottom line is very few people can afford to pay an Annual Pass that costs 30 days to break even. (in terms of money and vacation days). So in the end you have alot fewer people paying a much higher AP price and Disney will make alot less money from APs.

 

[Narcoossee11]

30 Days is unrealistic. Unless you are retired, very hard for someone who is out of state (and not a border state to Florida) to take that much time off just to go to one location.

And $1300 isn't really $1300. You have to include tax which bumps it up to the $1500 range. ($1600 with memory maker which used to be free)

30 Days on 3 10 day trips you are looking at least $3150 on lodging. And that assumes the cheapest decent off site lodging possible since a 10 day trip will at the very least bump into a Fri/Sat stay which is more expensive.

Then you have to factor in the airfare for 3 trips which will very depending on your location but will be costly.

And then food for $30 days and transportation cost (rental car, UBER, LYNX bus)

Only the richest people could follow your AP pricing structure. If the breakeven point is 30 days then very few people would buy it.

That is the point . Disney does not want , nor needs pass holders.
Per the comments from corporate, they prefer reg day guest since they spend the big bucks.

Sure there are some AP that spend large amounts of money but Disney has research proving the opposite.

 

[jo-jo]

Sure there are some AP that spend large amounts of money but Disney has research proving the opposite.

But yet FL gets cheap APs. I still don't understand the reasoning for that. If tickets were cheap enough, more than enough out of state people would stay longer or more often. Someone said Fl gets the cheap tickets, because they have to deal with disney traffic issues. Well, people who live 200 miles away from disney still get the cheaper tickets and without the issues .

 

[New Mouse]

That is the point . Disney does not want , nor needs pass holders.
Per the comments from corporate, they prefer reg day guest since they spend the big bucks.

Sure there are some AP that spend large amounts of money but Disney has research proving the opposite.

They don't have research but they certainly have an executives opinion!

 

[Pooh's World]

But yet FL gets cheap APs. I still don't understand the reasoning for that. If tickets were cheap enough, more than enough out of state people would stay longer or more often. Someone said Fl gets the cheap tickets, because they have to deal with disney traffic issues. Well, people who live 200 miles away from disney still get the cheaper tickets and without the issues .

I believe the reason FL gets cheap tickets is because they have voting power and ability to help or hinder WDW Disney projects, autonomy, etc.

 

[Pooh's World]

That is the point . Disney does not want , nor needs pass holders.
Per the comments from corporate, they prefer reg day guest since they spend the big bucks.

Sure there are some AP that spend large amounts of money but Disney has research proving the opposite.

Disney can always use the upfront AP money (which they can invest, use for projects).

The question is more which AP price point is going to make more money for Disney.
That guy's plan where you have to go 30 days a year to breakeven. But nobody buys the AP since you need alot of free time and money.
or the current price point where you can break even in about 10 visits.

It's more likely that the 10 visit price point will make them more AP money.
It doesn't really hurt them to have cheap AP visitors floating around the park unless there is a covid induced park capacity cap.

 

[fumanchu2488]

Disney can always use the upfront AP money (which they can invest, use for projects).

The question is more which AP price point is going to make more money for Disney.
That guy's plan where you have to go 30 days a year to breakeven. But nobody buys the AP since you need alot of free time and money.
or the current price point where you can break even in about 10 visits.

It's more likely that the 10 visit price point will make them more AP money.
It doesn't really hurt them to have cheap AP visitors floating around the park unless there is a covid induced park capacity cap.

I used 30 days as a random test of cost. Three 10 day tickets in mid august came out to around $1800 with tax. That is 30 days. A 7 day ticket in October was $720.

My point is that the reason APs are not back is because they missed the price point low when they reintroduced them and the demand of APs and day ticket guests are too high. And they would rather fill the parks with day ticket guests than APs.

Your saying that $1700 would significantly reduce the number of AP.

So let me get this straight. Even though demand for their product is so high that they have essentially no hotel room availability the months of October, November and December; that they had to pause sale of almost every AP; that the rest of this month you cannot get a park reservation to MK; your argument is that they should not increase the cost of APs? And I wouldn’t limit this argument to only APs. Based on their statements it seems as if price increases are coming across the board.

 

[randumb0]

But yet FL gets cheap APs. I still don't understand the reasoning for that. If tickets were cheap enough, more than enough out of state people would stay longer or more often. Someone said Fl gets the cheap tickets, because they have to deal with disney traffic issues. Well, people who live 200 miles away from disney still get the cheaper tickets and without the issues .

Because they need FL APs regardless of what they say at meetings

 

[DebbieB]

I believe the reason FL gets cheap tickets is because they have voting power and ability to help or hinder WDW Disney projects, autonomy, etc.

They took away the FL Resident/DVC discount on the top annual pass last year.