Thanks for your posts,
@Ms Bibbidi. Always interesting.
I do wonder what's going to happen. My sister and I are out-of-state AP holders. We both renewed our APs this year and hope the renewals (at a price we can live with) continue, since, without them, I can't see us going more than once a year, and we do love going to WDW.
The part of all this analysis I don't really get is the idea that we're taking up space in the parks that a different kind of guest--a guest who would spend more money on meals and/or souvenirs and/or special events--would be able to have if only we didn't come. I don't think we are, since we always stay at a WDW resort. Doesn't WDW make more money from us, staying on-site and never leaving the bubble, than they do from off-site guests who aren't APs? I haven't stayed off-site in years, but when I did I certainly didn't spend all my dollars and time at WDW. I went to other parks and ate outside WDW. So are those guests also now in the lowered-value category?
It's not unlikely that if APs disappear and park ticket prices continue to skyrocket, that my sister and I will start staying off-site in the future. If a lovely off-site resort + daily rideshares starts costing less than staying on-site in a so-so resort, WDW is going to lose even more income from us, the apparently unwanted guests.
Perhaps WDW is planning on keeping their staffing low and limiting the number of guests in the parks and continually raising prices. I guess that's possible.
So much that made a WDW trip great, aside from the resorts and parks, were benefits that no longer exist and will probably never return in any form: Magical Express, FP+ (or even advance reservations for G+), and bounceback offers for future stays (we really really miss this one) come immediately to mind. Little things that made WDW special are also gone, like towel animals. And dare I mention discounts? Since 1999, when I had Magic Kingdom Club through my employer, I have never stayed at a WDW resort without using a discount. Even the last 3 trips we made in the last year were all with some kind of a discount, no matter how minimal. Yet there's no fall discount out--although I believe there is a discount for military members--yet for this year and maybe there won't be. We shall see.
Warning: This post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinion.
I am going to comment on your post about APs are taking up space and blocking more profitable ticketed guests.
I am beginning to think Disney’s statements that started this really mean something else.
First, some background. When Covid hit, the parks were closed by governmental order. Disney World parks had been closed 118 days before re-opening. Disneyland was still closed. The re-opening of Disney Springs was May 20th. The re-opening of WDW Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom was July 11, 2020. The re-opening of Epcot and Hollywood Studios was July 15. 2020.
Chapek first made this comment in the Q3 earnings report August 4, 2020 right after some parks re-opened. Now remember, the 3rd quarter performance dates are April 1, 2020 through June 30, 2020. There were no visitors in the Disney World parks at that time. He had to be talking about historical numbers. Disneyland was closed also and stayed closed for over a year. Because of Covid travel restrictions, and having a Republican Governor, Florida was one of the first states to re-open businesses. Therefore, upon re-opening, the vast majority of guests at WDW were local passholders. But, Chapek would not have had the numbers on post-covid re-opening guests' spend rate in time for the August 4, 2020 Q3 report. It takes time to gather and crunch the numbers for a report. Only numbers up to June 30th were in that report. None of the re-opening numbers were in it.
Chapek's Quote in Context:
Chapek was just responding to a question about less than expected parks performance. Of course, during the reporting period, the domestic parks were closed on both coasts. But, Chapek was defending against an idea that it was due to discount package offerings and talked about the recent disruption in travel patterns. He should have asked for a clarification of the question and started with saying the parks were closed during the Q3 reporting period.
You know how when somebody brings up a topic it makes your mind go off on a tangent? Well, the next comments Chapek made were that right now, the proportion of local passholders was much higher than usual. This was true, but it wasn't part of the report data for Q3. But the next things he says -- may be an off-shoot tangent thought and that is:
“All I’ll follow up on the parks question is that, as you know, different guests, depending on where they’re coming from, have different relative values in terms of their contribution as a guest to the park. And typically, someone who travels and stays for five to seven days is marginally more valuable to the business than someone who comes in on an annual pass and stays a day or two and consumes less, you know, merchandise and food and beverage. So, the way I would look at it is that it’s just as that constituency changes a little bit, so do our overall margins change. But it’s not because of price reductions or anything like that.” (Disney CEO Bob Chapek, Q3 Earnings Call, August 4, 2020.)
See, that is the rest of the story. He was responding to a question that appears to be ill-timed and perhaps based on some earlier period than the report in question.
Anyway, he talks about the "constituency" changing. I think that is really important here. Because later comments in the Q3 2022 connect those constituency comments to Disneyland! Remember, Chapek is in California. To him, Disney World is "back east." In his back-yard is the constituency of Disneyland and prior to the pandemic, they estimated well over 1,000,000 annual passes outstanding. The LA Basin has a population of 10 million and over the last decade or so, that constituency has been changing rather dramatically. I know. I used to live there for the better part of 30 years. The demographics of the LA Basin and SoCal are growing. Latinos are now the majority and whites are a minority. When a population changes that drastically both in composition and numbers, it creates friction with other minorities. There were also significant changes in law and law enforcement standards. Homelessness, dangerous drugs, the immigration issues, single parent families and the strengthening of gangs all played a part. This list is not exclusive. The endemic divisiveness of America on other issues like political extremism, wokeness and other issues are also impacting Disney crowds. When we enter Disney parks, we tote all of this along with us just under the surface. Disney had 1,000,000 outstanding APs and a reputation for being a "locals park." That is a flowery euphemism. Let's call it what it is. The recent stories about Six Flags in Texas is also using a euphemism of "rowdy teens." These are gangbangers. If one has worked in the professional field interfacing you get to know the colors, signs and symbols on the tattoos. While you see it as a "sleeve" someone else can read it. We can read the graffiti and know if it says something. It is like studying a foreign language.
I believe that Chapek's chatter about the value of different guests "depending on where they are coming from" and about "unfavorable attendance mix" refers to what some are now calling "riff raff." Walt first put an admission price on the park to discourage "riff raff." Disney is seeing the outbreaks of frequent fights (probably between gang bangers). (This is not racist, there are gang bangers in all races.) They flood the parks on Friday nights and weekends. But, Disney/Chapek cannot say that out loud and certainly not in public. Disney cannot admit they might have a gang banger problem. They can only talk about finances and the guests they are trying to attract; the high profit family vacationer. So, with recent language about it referencing Disneyland, and Disneyland being located in a sea of 10,000,000 people that has changing demographics, Disney is concerned about keeping their operation going and their reputation as a safe, place for family entertainment. The Happiest Place on Earth. Just a handful of bad incidents, if persistent, can destroy a multi-billion dollar industry. But, he cannot speak this out loud.
So, Miffy, I really do not see that you are a guest Disney wants to discourage. You and your sister are wanted. Gang bangers are wanted too as long as they leave the intimidation and violence outside and act like friendly vacationers. But, we need to understand and try hard to cooperate. Of course, Disney is a for-profit business. We know that. But, seriously, with a serious problem, Disney might have to use some price hikes related to resolving a problem like this. So, do try to save up for your planned vacations. Stay on property if you can.