2042 and Extensions

[RNstitches]

I was thinking about my resale BWV contract and wondering what would happen to those points if a contract extension was offered. I'm not trying to start a debate if an extension will be offered (I know this is unlikely based on the results of OKW, however I think they would get a better response with BWV and BCV based on location and popularity). I was more curious if an extension was offered, would my resale points get "washed" and become direct, or would they still be categorized as resale? Would that have an effect on whether people would choose to extend?

 

[Lumpy1106]

I can't imagine anything that would tank the 2042 resale price faster than offering an extension, but only making that offer to Blue Carders.

 

[Straulin]

They could have a ‘member perk’ of reduced pricing to extend with your blue card, set price for resale without the discount, and could have an increased price per point for resale owners to extend with those points becoming blue card eligible.

 

[Sandisw]

An extension alone would not change the status of points. As long as they still have the current rules in place, those restricted resale will remain restricted.

Now, they have the power to do what they want so there Is nothing to prevent them from offering the extension and making the fee high enough to make them eligible for all resorts, and eligible for membership perks.

As you said, it’s unlikely and while it may be more popular, those points charts alone are the biggest reason, IMO, it won’t happen.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I know you said no debate but because of the way the land lease is written, an extension extends all points regardless of opt in. And it maintains the point chart and association status.

Based on the legalities and the direction of DVC, it is much more likely a new association begins on 2/1/2042. Existing owners are given a chance to buy back in with a discount. The resorts rejoin the association on new rules. All buyers of the "extension" (which is what it will be called, even though legally everyone will be on a new contract in a new association) will be considered direct purchasers for whatever value that has at that time.

 

[Brian Noble]

if an extension was offered, would my resale points get "washed" and become direct, or would they still be categorized as resale? Would that have an effect on whether people would choose to extend?

I don't see an extension being offered. Even if one was, I very much doubt that the extension would also wash points. If Disney wants to offer an opportunity to wash points, it would likely be a separately-priced product, and it will not be cheap.

But, at this point, we're all just guessing.

 

[kilik64]

How did the OKW extension work with resale points? Was it only offered to direct?

 

[havoc315]

1 -- They are unlikely to offer extensions, especially not a long extension. They don't want 100-year-old buildings.... Disney Hotels built in the 1990's may seem fine now, but they were not meant to continue operating through the 2090's. So it will be time to knock them or at least gut them and re-build them.
2 -- If they do offer any sort of extension, they could do it any lots of different ways. It could be a path for just blue-card members or for all owners. They really could do it either way. But it's not like existing owners will be getting any massive free benefit. Anything they get, they will have to pay for. It won't be a relatively cheap extension like happened with OKW (an extension that was offered 30+ years before the expiration date). So sure.. they are extending BCV to 2062, and existing owners can get the "perk" of buying the extension for $195 per point.

 

[Sandisw]

How did the OKW extension work with resale points? Was it only offered to direct?

When the OKW extension was offered there was no difference in resale points.

The changes for resale started in 2011/2012 when they could not be used for the Disney collection, etc like cruises and such.

Then in 2016, came the restrictions on benefits such as discounts. That’s when the blue card /white card happened.

The restrictions for use came with RIV in 2019.

As mentioned, a true extension means everything the the POS remains the same but the land lease..once done, it apples to everyone and not just those who pay or sign a quit claim giving it back to DVD for free in 2042.

 

[Sparky984]

I think DVC says thank you for the last 50 years. Would you like to buy some points? I don’t think they’re offering extensions or even discounts to previous owners. It will be the new building for which their points inventory will be sold. There could be current member pricing like we see now, but nothing beyond that. Why would they?

The buildings will be sold as hotel rooms until it’s their turn for renovations (and an updated points chart) at which point they will join the Riviera and newer DVC 2.0 club.

 

[RoseGold]

DVC could wash points today, if they wanted to. However, Disney has never washed points before. It's possible they could do it with or without an extension, depends on how much they value their developer points. Totally different discussion. Actually, I'd think a theoretical extension (which won't happen) could un-wash non-grandfathered resale points, like reselling a resale, so the opposite of what you are imagining. I would think it should given the set-up of RIV, and probably future resorts.

I would think washing would have happened recently, when Disney really needed cash. But nope. It probably was at least on the table. I guess it's possible as expiring resorts run out of time, or if they need money.

No way extension is going to happen, especially with those charts. But I actually can see washing happening, for a price. You already can wash by just selling and paying the premium to buy direct. That margin has been pretty slim a few times in the last few years. It even could have been negative if you sold VGF1 right before VGF2 went on sale.

 

[buzzrelly]

1 -- They are unlikely to offer extensions, especially not a long extension. They don't want 100-year-old buildings.... Disney Hotels built in the 1990's may seem fine now, but they were not meant to continue operating through the 2090's. So it will be time to knock them or at least gut them and re-build them.

I'm wondering how true this is? I come from a town in CT with houses that were built in the 1600's, and they're absolutely gorgeous with no signs of getting knocked down anytime soon.

Do you think The CR and Poly only have about 50 years left in them?

I honestly don't know, so I'm genuinely curious, but it seems awfully wasteful if true?

 

[havoc315]

I'm wondering how true this is? I come from a town in CT with houses that were built in the 1600's, and they're absolutely gorgeous with no signs of getting knocked down anytime soon.

Now consider the amount of renovations that have gone into those houses over the centuries. Very little of the "original" structure is likely still standing,

Do you think The CR and Poly only have about 50 years left in them?

I honestly don't know, so I'm genuinely curious, but it seems awfully wasteful if true?

Really depends on the quality of the construction of each building. But it's also about evolving needs of the guests and industry.
Take Las Vegas as the extreme where hotels are routinely knocked down to make room for something newer and greater.

 

[tim494]

If they can get a developer to finance the project, there is no reason to extend. Knock-down or fully renovate, they’ll have new contracts to sell at an extremely popular location. Plus the reworking points chart, making those who own other locations pay more to stay there. Basically devaluing the overall point pool. Too much gain to not monetize.

I think OKW was a little different due to the configuration of that property.

How often do you get to sell the same property twice?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I'm not sure the buildings have been constructed with a mind to climate impacts in Florida, which can be kinda significant.

 

[havoc315]

If they can get a developer to finance the project, there is no reason to extend. Knock-down or fully renovate, they’ll have new contracts to sell at an extremely popular location. Plus the reworking points chart, making those who own other locations pay more to stay there. Basically devaluing the overall point pool. Too much gain to not monetize.

Exactly --- And take into account changes in the park over 50 years, to maximize profits. Back when BCV was built, attendance at Disney was lower. Epcot wasn't a festival destination. True deluxe DVC didn't exist, DVC was still somewhat lesser than deluxe accommodations -- OKW and SSR with their non-theme park locations. BCV was put in a corner of the Beach Club property rooms smaller than the regular resort, without views of the lake.

Since then, the newest DVC is more equal to true WDW deluxe properties -- GFV and RIV being the prime examples. And with the popularity of the Epcot area hotels with DVC guests for festivals, they could really sell a whole lot more rooms at prime real estate of BCV. So it would be very profitable for Disney to knock down BCV and put up a tower twice as large, bigger rooms and more rooms, to attract top dollar.

I think OKW was a little different due to the configuration of that property.

How often do you get to sell the same property twice?

I'm not sure the buildings have been constructed with a mind to climate impacts in Florida, which can be kinda significant.

But it's not just if the building is safe and sturdy. It's about whether the building continues to meet the desires of guests in a way that maximizes Disney profit. For example, by current standards, the rooms at BCV are small compared to the nicest most modern resorts. And Disney may feel that if that they can sell twice as many rooms at double the price if they made the resort nicer (and doubled the number of rooms).

Think about houses built in the 1970s, and how they feel today (50 years later). If they have not had major renovations, they feel tired and dated. Closets and kitchens feel small. The electrical isnt built for today's technology.
Now, many homes from the 1970s are still around -- And many are stunning beautiful modern homes -- But such homes have had massive renovations. They had additions built, walls torn down to expand kitchens, etc.
Not just "soft good refurbishment" but major major work. On a hotel-wide level, the type of work that can't be accomplished without shutting down most (or all) of the hotel for many many months.

 

[CarolynFH]

Back when BCV was built, attendance at Disney was lower. Epcot wasn't a festival destination. True deluxe DVC didn't exist, DVC was still somewhat lesser than deluxe accommodations

I agree with your overall point, but to be historically accurate, BWV was built before BCV, and so was VWL (now BRV). SSR didn't come along until after BCV.

BWV was the first DVC at WDW after OKW (VB and DHHIR both also opened before BWV) and was definitely intended as a deluxe resort in tandem with its sister BW Inn - although the villas are significantly smaller than the ones at OKW, and I think it shows that Disney was beginning to see the profit potential (not to mention the benefit of having DVC owners cover costs of operations and maintenance during times of low occupancy) in DVC.

 

[DonMacGregor]

But it's not just if the building is safe and sturdy. It's about whether the building continues to meet the desires of guests in a way that maximizes Disney profit. For example, by current standards, the rooms at BCV are small compared to the nicest most modern resorts. And Disney may feel that if that they can sell twice as many rooms at double the price if they made the resort nicer (and doubled the number of rooms).

Think about houses built in the 1970s, and how they feel today (50 years later). If they have not had major renovations, they feel tired and dated. Closets and kitchens feel small. The electrical isnt built for today's technology.
Now, many homes from the 1970s are still around -- And many are stunning beautiful modern homes -- But such homes have had massive renovations. They had additions built, walls torn down to expand kitchens, etc.
Not just "soft good refurbishment" but major major work. On a hotel-wide level, the type of work that can't be accomplished without shutting down most (or all) of the hotel for many many months.

In another 20 years, building technology will have advanced to the point where the current resorts will look like a log cabin on Tom Sawyer Island compared to current construction of the times.

Advances in Green Building and Smart Technology, accompanied by ever more stringent energy efficient code requirements will make most of the 2042 villas pale in comparison to what other hotels will be offering (and what a hotel guest in 2042 will be accustomed to). Fully-integrated smart environmental, appliance and building envelope systems, including thermal and sound insulation, and electrochromic (self-dimming) glass) will be the norm in a hotel room within the next decade, never mind 20 years from now.

Satisfying these developing standards can only go so far in buildings constructed in the 1970's to 1990's. At some point, the upgrades to electrical, mechanical, plumbing, exterior cladding (wall covering systems and roofing materials) and thermal and sound insulating systems will require such heavy modification, that I just don't see it being cost-effective to try to salvage the existing structures.
People staying in even what we would consider to be "moderate" accommodations today (in general, not Disney moderate) will come to expect what will then be the lifestyle standard for hotel construction.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

In another 20 years, building technology will have advanced to the point where the current resorts will look like a log cabin on Tom Sawyer Island compared to current construction of the times.

Advances in Green Building and Smart Technology, accompanied by ever more stringent energy efficient code requirements will make most of the 2042 villas pale in comparison to what other hotels will be offering (and what a hotel guest in 2042 will be accustomed to). Fully-integrated smart environmental, appliance and building envelope systems, including thermal and sound insulation, and electrochromic (self-dimming) glass) will be the norm in a hotel room within the next decade, never mind 20 years from now.

Satisfying these developing standards can only go so far in buildings constructed in the 1970's to 1990's. At some point, the upgrades to electrical, mechanical, plumbing, exterior cladding (wall covering systems and roofing materials) and thermal and sound insulating systems will require such heavy modification, that I just don't see it being cost-effective to try to salvage the existing structures.
People staying in even what we would consider to be "moderate" accommodations today (in general, not Disney moderate) will come to expect what will then be the lifestyle standard for hotel construction.

Sounds like I'll need to demolish my house, too, and build a new one to be up to par. Gonna start saving

 

[RoseGold]

Advances in Green Building and Smart Technology, accompanied by ever more stringent energy efficient code requirements will make most of the 2042 villas pale in comparison to what other hotels will be offering (and what a hotel guest in 2042 will be accustomed to). Fully-integrated smart environmental, appliance and building envelope systems, including thermal and sound insulation, and electrochromic (self-dimming) glass) will be the norm in a hotel room within the next decade, never mind 20 years from now.

I remember hearing this when I bought my first house in 2009.