2042 and Extensions

[Ruttangel]

Imagine booking a room for 31st Jan 2042 at 10 pts a night and then exact same room for 20pts a night on 1st Feb 2042 as it’s under new land lease. Surely that’s insane

 

[DonMacGregor]

I remember hearing this when I bought my first house in 2009.

There have already been 5 revisions to the building code since 2009 (2009, 2012, 2015, 2018 and 2021). Each edition of the code introduces new energy efficiency requirements in both design and material standards, as well as upgrades to structural design and weather-resisting elements.

In my 40+ years in construction (I’m Senior Vice President of a national construction consulting and construction forensic firm, and a licensed General Contractor in 5 states including Florida with a degree in architecture), I’ve seen the evolution of 12 iterations of the code and looking across those 40 years, the changes have been dramatic. From edition to edition, they are definitely subtle, but taken as a whole, construction in the United States is vastly different now than it was just 20 years ago.

(This isn’t a flex, just saying I have a practical background in this stuff and I’m not an internet expert with a Wikipedia Degree. I’m an actual expert witness in a firm that performs forensic design and construction investigations, building failure analysis, storm, wildfire, and earthquake analysis, etc.).

 

[RoseGold]

Imagine booking a room for 31st Jan 2042 at 10 pts a night and then exact same room for 20pts a night on 1st Feb 2042 as it’s under new land lease. Surely that’s insane

Guests may hear construction noise between the hours of 8AM and 5PM. LOL.

 

[havoc315]

In another 20 years, building technology will have advanced to the point where the current resorts will look like a log cabin on Tom Sawyer Island compared to current construction of the times.

Advances in Green Building and Smart Technology, accompanied by ever more stringent energy efficient code requirements will make most of the 2042 villas pale in comparison to what other hotels will be offering (and what a hotel guest in 2042 will be accustomed to). Fully-integrated smart environmental, appliance and building envelope systems, including thermal and sound insulation, and electrochromic (self-dimming) glass) will be the norm in a hotel room within the next decade, never mind 20 years from now.

Satisfying these developing standards can only go so far in buildings constructed in the 1970's to 1990's. At some point, the upgrades to electrical, mechanical, plumbing, exterior cladding (wall covering systems and roofing materials) and thermal and sound insulating systems will require such heavy modification, that I just don't see it being cost-effective to try to salvage the existing structures.
People staying in even what we would consider to be "moderate" accommodations today (in general, not Disney moderate) will come to expect what will then be the lifestyle standard for hotel construction.

THIS.

But also remember, for traditional Disney hotels -- They can shut down the whole building or a massive chunk of the building for months at a time, to do massive renovations. This has happened recently at both the Poly and Contemporary, the 2 oldest resorts at WDW.

A DVC building cannot be entirely shut down, or even a huge chunk shut down for months. Instead, only a small percentage of rooms can be taken out of service at a time. Which is why you basically just have enough time for a hard goods replacement every 14 years, and soft goods every 7 years. But even a hard goods replacement is still not a true gutting.

Only after contract expiration can Disney truly gut huge chunks of the building at once.
So the idea that Disney would just extend the DVC contracts for another 50 years without a major gutting (and possible demolishment) just doesn't mesh with reality. These hotels weren't built to go 100 years of consecutive service with just an occasional hard goods refresh.

 

[Straulin]

I expect the more likely scenario, as much as it pains me, is they will demolish to build towers to pack more people into the Epcot walkable resorts.

 

[havoc315]

I expect the more likely scenario, as much as it pains me, is they will demolish to build towers to pack more people into the Epcot walkable resorts.

Given the prime real estate of BCV and BWV, I agree that they will expand the number of rooms... building more vertically makes sense. Whether they go full tower or just a couple more floors, I'm less certain.

A tower at the BCV location would bring the benefit of higher rooms having views across Crescent lake and into Epcot. And imagine the feel of a rooftop view at a location like that.

While I admit this is purely speculation with no certainty, I fully expect that either through massive refurb or demolishment, the final product will be: More rooms, larger rooms.

Of course, that all assumes DVC is still a super viable product in 20 years. It's also possible that global warming has destroyed WDW as a vacation destination. Demand for DVC is greatly impaired. And Disney just stops/reduces selling DVC.

 

[Straulin]

Given the prime real estate of BCV and BWV, I agree that they will expand the number of rooms... building more vertically makes sense. Whether they go full tower or just a couple more floors, I'm less certain.

A tower at the BCV location would bring the benefit of higher rooms having views across Crescent lake and into Epcot. And imagine the feel of a rooftop view at a location like that.

While I admit this is purely speculation with no certainty, I fully expect that either through massive refurb or demolishment, the final product will be: More rooms, larger rooms.

Of course, that all assumes DVC is still a super viable product in 20 years. It's also possible that global warming has destroyed WDW as a vacation destination. Demand for DVC is greatly impaired. And Disney just stops/reduces selling DVC.

Shh…Global warming’s effects on WDW are like Bruno. We don’t talk about it.

 

[RoseGold]

I wonder if SAB will make the cut. It's huge, takes up prime real estate, expensive to run and staff, and they'd rather you buy tickets to a waterpark. They're kind of stuck with it for now, with all the BC contracts they sold.

If Storytime with Belle is too expensive to staff, I bet SAB is not making the bean counters happy.

 

[havoc315]

Shh…Global warming’s effects on WDW are like Bruno. We don’t talk about it.

Understandable. But think about it... according to some studies, within 20-30 years, the entire summer in central Florida will be 100 degrees+. Florida is already too hot in summer, which is why it's not a super high demand time anymore. But warm it up another 5 to 10 degrees? Goes from uncomfortable to unsafe.
Could even hit a reverse scenario of the Northeast -- Where parks like 6 Flags need to close in the winter and theme parks are only open half the year. By necessity, that could happen to WDW.

And imagine the value and demand for DVC, if the resort and parks are only open 6-9 months of the year, and the climate is only comfortable for 3-5 months per year.
June-August, average highs over 100 almost every day, and even surpassing 110 on hot days. April-May and September-October, average highs over 90. November - March, average highs in the 80's.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Whether they go full tower or just a couple more floors, I'm less certain.

 

[Straulin]

Understandable. But think about it... according to some studies, within 20-30 years, the entire summer in central Florida will be 100 degrees+. Florida is already too hot in summer, which is why it's not a super high demand time anymore. But warm it up another 5 to 10 degrees? Goes from uncomfortable to unsafe.
Could even hit a reverse scenario of the Northeast -- Where parks like 6 Flags need to close in the winter and theme parks are only open half the year. By necessity, that could happen to WDW.

And imagine the value and demand for DVC, if the resort and parks are only open 6-9 months of the year, and the climate is only comfortable for 3-5 months per year.
June-August, average highs over 100 almost every day, and even surpassing 110 on hot days. April-May and September-October, average highs over 90. November - March, average highs in the 80's.

And they criticized me when I bought a 2042 resort…

 

[DonMacGregor]

And they criticized me when I bought a 2042 resort…

I keep adding on at BRV. Don’t care, as 2042 is still 19 years away, and I’m going to get plenty of use out of it in those two decades. I’ll just start buying more sunscreen and fewer resale points.

 

[Sandisw]

I wonder if SAB will make the cut. It's huge, takes up prime real estate, expensive to run and staff, and they'd rather you buy tickets to a waterpark. They're kind of stuck with it for now, with all the BC contracts they sold.

If Storytime with Belle is too expensive to staff, I bet SAB is not making the bean counters happy.

SAB is not DVC. It is owned by Disney with DVC owners getting access to it.

So any change to that won’t have anything to do with 2042 And ending current DVC.

 

[havoc315]

SAB is not DVC. It is owned by Disney with DVC owners getting access to it.

So any change to that won’t have anything to do with 2042 And ending current DVC.

Not directly. Indirectly.... it would be a good time for resort-wide renovations/reimagining.

But if anything, I would expect them to expand and modernize SAB, not reduce it.

Feature pools get more and more impressive over time (not talking about Disney, I'm talking worldwide). BY 2042, if SAB doesn't change, it may seem like a below average pool by then.

 

[Sandisw]

Not directly. Indirectly.... it would be a good time for resort-wide renovations/reimagining.

But if anything, I would expect them to expand and modernize SAB, not reduce it.

Feature pools get more and more impressive over time (not talking about Disney, I'm talking worldwide). BY 2042, if SAB doesn't change, it may seem like a below average pool by then.

That would make sense, but I just wanted to clarify for others reading who may not be aware that it is not a common element of BCV.

 

[DonMacGregor]

SAB is not DVC. It is owned by Disney with DVC owners getting access to it.

So any change to that won’t have anything to do with 2042 And ending current DVC.

With global warming, at some point the seas will rise and Stormalong Bay will be part of Tampa Bay anyway.

 

[RoseGold]

Not directly. Indirectly.... it would be a good time for resort-wide renovations/reimagining.

But if anything, I would expect them to expand and modernize SAB, not reduce it.

Feature pools get more and more impressive over time (not talking about Disney, I'm talking worldwide). BY 2042, if SAB doesn't change, it may seem like a below average pool by then.

Sure, but if Disney can make the impressive feature pool ticketed by making it a waterpark, isn't that even better for them?

 

[havoc315]

Sure, but if Disney can make the impressive feature pool ticketed by making it a waterpark, isn't that even better for them?

Then why not eliminate pools at resorts altogether. Want to swim, buy a water park ticket!

But ultimately, WDW resorts need to compete with off property resorts. And even non-WDW vacations.

As elaborate feature pools become the norm everywhere else, WDW still needs to compete. (And every luxury resort pool these days has water slides, infinity pools, water falls, etc).

 

[RoseGold]

orate feature pools become the norm everywhere else, WDW still needs to compete. (And every luxury resort pool these days has water slides, infinity pools, water falls, etc).

There's a lot of gap between a perfectly good resort pool, like say GF, and the expensive beast of Stormalong Bay. I guess we will see in 20 years! Maybe your self-driving Disney pod car will take you to the waterpark instead.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Then why not eliminate pools at resorts altogether. Want to swim, buy a water park ticket!

But ultimately, WDW resorts need to compete with off property resorts. And even non-WDW vacations.

As elaborate feature pools become the norm everywhere else, WDW still needs to compete. (And every luxury resort pool these days has water slides, infinity pools, water falls, etc).

I really like boring pools with warm water and few people. Makes reading a book and sipping on a beverage so much easier.