2023 resale price speculation

[Bearval]

Riviera is a new resort. Might not go that low. Maybe 125 would be a good buy

I am willing to bet RIV will have one of the highest discounts from resale to direct pricing within the next 12 months when the recession bites into peoples disposable income due to it's high point chart and the resale restrictions.

 

[tom1944]

I am willing to bet RIV will have one of the highest discounts from resale to direct pricing within the next 12 months when the recession bites into peoples disposable income due to it's high point chart and the resale restrictions.

The point chart has to go into the cost calculation of a resort

The formula I was referred to goes point cost divided by contract years plus maintenance fees equals cost.

I multipled that by resort points for the room and time period I expect to use to get my ranking

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

You cannot compare 2009-2011 to summer 2020 they were driven by two complete different situations. In 2009-2011 the bottom dropped out of tourism due to the affects recession and WDW was even giving free dining to attract guests. Disney stopped ROFR because they didn't want to get stuck having to pay maintenance fees on rooms they could not fill. In summer 2020 people WANTED to travel but could not due to restrictions, DVD knew this would end and pent up demand would create buyers.

Who was comparing them? Not me.

 

[tom1944]

The point chart has to go into the cost calculation of a resort

The formula I was referred to goes point cost divided by contract years plus maintenance fees equals cost.

I multipled that by resort points for the room and time period I expect to use to get my ranking

I went back to find my list. I am using the 1 bedroom for comparison. I am also using average November sales price. Least expensive was Saratoga standard followed by AK standard 3% higher

Copper Creek is 14% higher than Saratoga
BLT is 16% higher than Saratoga

Those 2 could easily flip because BLT average sales in November was $15 a point higher than CCV. I have a feeling that might get closer in price

The 2042 resorts become the most expensive because of the expiration date

Boulder Ridge is about $1300 a week more than Saratoga using my formula

 

[Sandisw]

I am willing to bet RIV will have one of the highest discounts from resale to direct pricing within the next 12 months when the recession bites into peoples disposable income due to it's high point chart and the resale restrictions.

I think it will depend on how many contracts end up on the market. It’s still pretty early in the game for many who bought RIV.

But, if we see a more of them on the market I think there is a chance go down to the $110 to $115 range as an average and not just a few outliers.

 

[tom1944]

I think it will depend on how many contracts end up on the market. It’s still pretty early in the game for many who bought RIV.

But, if we see a more of them on the market I think there is a chance go down to the $110 to $115 range as an average and not just a few outliers.

I did not run the numbers but I have a feeling that Riviera resale might be surprisingly cost effective based on its price and contract length in comparison to the others on my list

The elephant in the room is you have to only utilize this resort

For some it would not matter and they would have a bargain

 

[Sandisw]

I did not run the numbers but I have a feeling that Riviera resale might be surprisingly cost effective based on its price and contract length in comparison to the others on my list

The elephant in the room is you have to only utilize this resort

For some it would not matter and they would have a bargain

That’s me! I might have to consider more there if they do fall that low!!

 

[Brian Noble]

point cost divided by contract years

This ignores the fact that $100 today is worth more than $10/year for ten years. It probably doesn't change the rankings of resorts (at least, not too much) but it probably narrows the differences significantly.

It's also harder to do this "right" because you have to make some assumptions about long-term inflation, but that's a separate problem.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Watching the prices at VGC fall, I can’t help but keep wondering where they will price VDH for current DVC members during launch. I suppose it’s not just the cost pp but also the point chart. How much will the first VDH resale contracts go for if they have resale restrictions given that it is just a tower and not a whole resort like Riveria…. Will restrictions even matter to most West Coast based people…. 2023 should be interesting…

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

I think it will depend on how many contracts end up on the market. It’s still pretty early in the game for many who bought RIV.

But, if we see a more of them on the market I think there is a chance go down to the $110 to $115 range as an average and not just a few outliers.

I think that resale buyers, generally, are more sophisticated than developer purchasers. Therefore I would expect retail buyers to be more discerning about the limitations of restricted points, and you’d think that Riviera would therefore sell for less. I guess time will tell on this.

 

[tom1944]

This ignores the fact that $100 today is worth more than $10/year for ten years. It probably doesn't change the rankings of resorts (at least, not too much) but it probably narrows the differences significantly.

It's also harder to do this "right" because you have to make some assumptions about long-term inflation, but that's a separate problem.

I agree

I am only comparing the immediate cost but trying to include some way to include the additional contract length. It is an imperfect analysis.

The gap among all of the resorts including preferred rooms or savannah view range from $2,585 per week up to $4,167 per week. While that might be a significant enough difference I did the calculation for 7 resorts and 11 room types so that difference might be de minimus for many people. I doubt if you love a resort and it is $150 a week more expensive than one you do not like as much it would sway your decision.

Since I am not designing a bridge and if my calculation is wrong no one dies it is at least a fun exercise. No harm no foul.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I did not run the numbers but I have a feeling that Riviera resale might be surprisingly cost effective based on its price and contract length in comparison to the others on my list

Riviera resale is easily the most cost effective in my calculations followed by OKW 2057. But then you have to live with what that gets you - no swaps. If that’s fine with you, great! Grab that deal!

 

[Robbie Cottam]

The rental market might get bumpy too. The rental market might also be flooded with owners. I think the problem with DVC is that there are way too many members and points in the system and not enough buyers and renters. By the looks of the board sponsors rental site, the only resort people are looking to rent is Beach Club.

Yep, it is called speculation…. Sometimes you’re the bug, sometimes you‘re the windshield, but you cant win if you dont play

 

[tom1944]

Riviera resale is easily the most cost effective in my calculations followed by OKW 2057. But then you have to live with what that gets you - no swaps. If that’s fine with you, great! Grab that deal!

My formula puts Riviera standard 1 bedroom on par with AK Savannah view and Boardwalk standard 1 bedroom. They are all in the $3200-3400 range

Both Saratoga room types, BLT and AK standard and CCV 1 bedrooms are under $3,000

 

[Robbie Cottam]

One thing I don’t think people ever take in to account is this is not just a cash / value equation.

put a price on the 3 vacation you don’t get to take because you waited to see what happened….

my kids went to Disney at least once a year for most of there lives…..
some please do a CBA on that ….. and factor that into the equation…..

life is short, kids are only young once….

if you can do it pick the resort you would be happy to be married to and jump….

then enjoy your vacations with your family…….

 

[tom1944]

One thing I don’t think people ever take in to account is this is not just a cash / value equation.

put a price on the 3 vacation you don’t get to take because you waited to see what happened….

my kids went to Disney at least once a year for most of there lives…..
some please do a CBA on that ….. and factor that into the equation…..

life is short, kids are only young once….

if you can do it pick the resort you would be happy to be married to and jump….

then enjoy your vacations with your family…….

This is correct but I am well past that stage.

DVC was unaffordable to me back in 1996 when I first looked into it. It is very affordable to me now but at 65 I will not get enough use unless my daughter is on board to take it over at some point.

I will leave her enough money to cover future fees but she might not want the obligation. That is the stage we are at in our discussions now.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

This is correct but I am well past that stage.

DVC was unaffordable to me back in 1996 when I first looked into it. It is very affordable to me now but at 65 I will not get enough use unless my daughter is on board to take it over at some point.

I will leave her enough money to cover future fees but she might not want the obligation. That is the stage we are at in our discussions now.

So it sounds like, if she is on board and excited about it you would move forward…..

and if not we’ll that a good plan too…

 

[tom1944]

So it sounds like, if she is on board and excited about it you would move forward…..

and if not we’ll that a good plan too…

Well, I really want to move forward but it is an easier decision if she in on board


I figure my wife and I can get a good 10 years of use and that might just be enough to move forward

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Watching the prices at VGC fall, I can’t help but keep wondering where they will price VDH for current DVC members during launch. I suppose it’s not just the cost pp but also the point chart. How much will the first VDH resale contracts go for if they have resale restrictions given that it is just a tower and not a whole resort like Riveria…. Will restrictions even matter to most West Coast based people…. 2023 should be interesting…

I bought VGC at $220pp in early 2020. Since then, I've seen the resale value go up all the way to $310pp to what it is now. I'm not sure what caused the hysteria buying the last two years to have gone up that high and to come down so fast. VDH adding 350 new rooms at DLR could have been a part of it. The rapid rise in annual dues could also be a part of it as I saw my dues go from high $6pp to now over $8pp in only 2 years. There's been plenty of VDH speculations on these boards that have been all over the place. No matter the economy, I think Disney will push the pricing and points chart limit with VDH only because it's CA and DLR, and since there are so few DVC and Disney resorts there. I would be shocked if VDH did not have resale restrictions. My guess is the points chart and annual dues will be on par or slightly less than VGC.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Well, I really want to move forward but it is an easier decision if she in on board


I figure my wife and I can get a good 10 years of use and that might just be enough to move forward

I have found….. and i may have been really lucky with the timing, that 10 years is about the break even…. Your result may be different .

By my math, and other will disagree you would be a wash, but well ahead of rack rate, and your daughter would basically just be paying dues to go on vacation…. Again, very far ahead of rack rate…

Again, speculating here…..

at some point in the next 5, 10, 15 years disney will have gotten the ship righted and back on course….and the DVC contract you leave her will be a good thing ….