You might get a thousand dollars stimulus package

[MICKIMINI]

I wouldn't cash that check just yet, you know that big industries with lots of pros lobbying for them will get the first payout no matter how much profit they made by pulling money out of your wallet for ridiculous fees (airlines, etc). We have to keep our economy intact, keep integral businesses in business (yes, like airlines) and keep people from falling off the cliff but we should NOT be paying executive bonuses for glowing in the glory of "saving" their businesses in a victory lap. These payouts never ever are fair and someone (you and I) will ultimately pay back this big bill WITH INTEREST in the future and our kids and their kids.

I would hope many in our age group saw the devastation to the economy in the past (2008, 9/11) and planned accordingly. I also hope that young people will make it through intact and take this lesson to be frugal as it can take decades to dig out from a health crisis and financial disaster like this. Be well.

 

[smmco]

Good luck with the theory that hotter months will help. I have a friend who lives in Singapore, which shares a border with Malaysia. It is ALWAYS summer in those two places. the border with Malaysia is now closed because of the rapid spread of Covid-19 in Malaysia. I don't think summer weather is going to help at.all.

I'm a glass half-full kind of person.

 

[smmco]

The virus will slow down in a few months regardless because many of us will get it over the next couple of months. I'm sure some of us have already had it and didn't know it we had it. It's spreading quickly now because no one has immunity.

 

[Diznygrl]

Well even if warmer weather doesn't help slow down Covid, it helps a lot with cold & flu so maybe without having to worry about so many people hospitalized with flu we will have more space to handle those who need hospitalization with corona.

That's my glass half full speculation for the day.

 

[Searc]

The virus will slow down in a few months regardless because many of us will get it over the next couple of months. I'm sure some of us have already had it and didn't know it we had it. It's spreading quickly now because no one has immunity.

It isn't chicken pox. You don't have immunity to it after the first time you get it. It's in the same family of viruses as the common cold.

There is data people are being re-infected.

 

[TLSnell1981]

I'm a glass half-full kind of person.

And, you fill it back up before it's empty

 

[fsjking]

The thing is that for weeks I and others have tried to share information on the expected path this was going to take. Not to scare people, not to panic people, but to prepare people and to help them make smart choices (like maybe don’t get on that flight to Italy tomorrow). Whether it was saying WDW would close, cruising would be interrupted, schools would close, business would significantly slow down. We were met with pretty rude responses about overhyping, dire prediction, scare mongering, being told our facts were incorrect, and being told we were flat out ignorant....only we werent. We were right.

So yes the future is always speculation, but it’s speculative guided by facts and knowledge of how science and governments work. You can chose not to hear it or think we’re negative but calling us unreasonable and then saying we should all lock up at home and die now seems like ostrich sticking their head in the sand.

Hell I keep saying that this is going to crash the world economy and people are saying I'm fear mongering.

 

[Farro]

Hell I keep saying that this is going to crash the world economy and people are saying I'm fear mongering.

Oh I believe that wholeheartedly!

 

[Toolulu22]

It isn't chicken pox. You don't have immunity to it after the first time you get it. It's in the same family of viruses as the common cold.

There is data people are being re-infected.

Then this race for a vaccine is for naught? I hope this one isn’t true, so that we can look forward to being vaccinated at some point.

 

[TLSnell1981]

I can't wallow in it. Not the type that crawls into a hole and quits. Too much that needs to be done. I'm looking forward..

 

[BMB777]

Spend it where? Stores and restaurants are all closed or closing. Travel is at a near-halt, and only the logistics of closing colleges and resort areas and needing to get people home is reportedly delaying a total grounding of flights. Even Amazon is deprioritizing shipments of non-essential supplies, and if we follow Europe's lead, mail service will soon face disruptions.



I agree. The flatten the curve message has gotten out, but I'm not sure people are really thinking about what that means for the long haul. The majority of people will eventually get this virus; really, that's the only thing that will eventual contain spread, when most people are immune via exposure or vaccine. The question is whether it happens over a period of a month or two, overwhelming our medical system, or if we can drag it out over a much longer time, sparing the medical system at the expense of the economy. Because slowing the spread doesn't mean we can abandon isolation measures - if we do, exponential growth will resume in the unexposed portion of the population.

There's a report out of the UK that takes a longer view than most of what we're hearing here, and it really isn't encouraging. Twitter thread woth a link and a summary of the findings:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1239975682643357696

If it plays out along these lines, I strongly suspect public opinion will pretty rapidly veer towards taking our chances with the virus rather than endure the social and economic costs of 18+ months of isolation.

I agree but not sure if our government will see it the same way.

 

[fsjking]

I agree but not sure if our government will see it the same way.

When it comes to the point of a riot/revolution/anarchy vs letting the virus chips fall where they may, they'll reverse course pretty quick. It would start in a state with a smaller number of cases, and once one governor caves, it'll ripple across the country.

 

[BMB777]

When it comes to the point of a riot/revolution/anarchy vs letting the virus chips fall where they may, they'll reverse course pretty quick. It would start in a state with a smaller number of cases, and once one governor caves, it'll ripple across the country.

I'm definitely curious to see how this plays out between now and end of May, which I think is the point where people may start to break.

 

[fsjking]

I'm definitely curious to see how this plays out between now and end of May, which I think is the point where people may start to break.

I think Memorial Day is the last point this can possibly go. I'm not sure if it can last that long, but I'd lay money on it not lasting past that. To even get that far, it's going to take a major outbreak. Like many thousands dead in the US. But we get to Memorial Day with people locked down and businesses closed and I think people will walk past dead bodies to get to the lakes, beaches, and back to some sort of normal routine.

 

[Diznygrl]

I'm definitely curious to see how this plays out between now and end of May, which I think is the point where people may start to break.

I think it might be sooner than that.

 

[Colleen27]

t supposed to be until we get a vaccine and cure, it's supposed to be until we flatten the curve. The goal was never for us to stop people from getting virus, but to stop people from getting virus all at once.

Flattening the curve is about drawing it out as long as possible to avoid overwhelming medical capacity, plain and simple. Success means the economic lockdown lasts months, if not until there is a vaccine. I've seen estimates that we can only handle about 100K serious cases at a time. That means we can't let more than a million or so people contract this at any given time, in light of what we know about the hospitalization and fatality rates. With hospitalized patients needing advanced medical support for a median of around 3 weeks, that means drawing this out for many months to remain under that capacity. If the projections that 60-70% of the population will already get this, and our target is no more than a million at a time to keep the medical system running, that curve would extend across years.

Politicians aren't talking about it yet because it would cause chaos. I read this morning that 1.4 million people work in the "non-essential" settings that would be closed by a shelter-in-place order in my state alone - that's almost a third of our workforce unemployed virtually overnight, if it comes to that. But if you look at the "ivory tower" analysis coming from the scientific community and universities, that's exactly what they're saying it will take to bend this down to a point our medical system can handle.

Do you have a Penzey's, Lane Bryant, Yankee Candle, Bath and Body Works, banks, restaurants, indoor malls, etc? They are all closed here. Numerous stores are closed, as they should be.

And Justice, Claires, Forever 21, Ulta, Hot Topic, Torrid, etc. I've gotten at least a dozen "we're closing until the end of March" emails from brands and stores I shop at in the last 24 hours alone.

 

[Colleen27]

I think Memorial Day is the last point this can possibly go. I'm not sure if it can last that long, but I'd lay money on it not lasting past that. To even get that far, it's going to take a major outbreak. Like many thousands dead in the US. But we get to Memorial Day with people locked down and businesses closed and I think people will walk past dead bodies to get to the lakes, beaches, and back to some sort of normal routine.

That's my feeling too. We will probably make it through April with increasing lockdowns. May will start to get iffy. Kids who have been indoors for the better part of 6 months, between winter and virus, will get to be intolerable. Political will/financial ability to support bailouts will start to wane. And people will quite simply be desperate to have something good/normal in their day-to-day lives, even if it is just a day at the beach. So cooperation with isolation measures will start to fall apart, and then what? Is the government going to be prepared to arrest and therefore feed and shelter people who violate those orders? Or use police force to demand they return and remain home, at gunpoint if necessary? Or will they relax those measures because widespread sickness is better than widespread social unrest?

Hopefully, that's just my writer's mind working overtime, spinning tales. But with evidence mounting that these measures may be in place for months or even a year or more, I seriously question whether we have the social and political will to keep the majority of the population homebound long enough to make a difference.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Kids who have been indoors for the better part of 6 months, between winter and virus, will get to be intolerable.

I love your optimism that it's just the kids that will be intolerable

 

[Colleen27]

And in so many cases unemployment pays less than a person's regular wages so it does help, don't get me wrong, but it does not make people whole.

Yep. $362 max in my state... less than even my blue-collar, high school-educated son makes as a training wage in an entry-level job. Heck, that's about what my college-age daughter was making waiting tables before all of this. It isn't going to be enough for very many people to keep the bills paid.

My husband and son are likely both headed for layoffs now that the Big 3 have announced that they're suspending production. Between the two of them, both receiving full unemployment, we'll see about 25% of their income replaced. And DD and I will see nothing at all, her because she had to quit to move home when her campus closed so her separation from work is technically voluntary and doesn't qualify and me because I'm a gig/temp worker (substitute teacher and freelancer) so I'm not covered by the system.

The virus will slow down in a few months regardless because many of us will get it over the next couple of months. I'm sure some of us have already had it and didn't know it we had it. It's spreading quickly now because no one has immunity.

I read a pre-publication news release today about an upcoming journal article detailing the development of a test for immunity. If that development proves effective and can be scaled up, it will be a HUGE step in addressing this in nations that were less than proactive about testing (like the U.S.) because it would give us a second chance at learning how widespread this is and how much of the population remains vulnerable.

It isn't chicken pox. You don't have immunity to it after the first time you get it. It's in the same family of viruses as the common cold.

There is data people are being re-infected.

Very limited at this point. The dominant thinking is that rather than re-infection, those cases are likely a matter of prematurely deeming some patients virus-free. While this virus is in the same family as the common cold, not all coronaviruses resist immune development - SARS and MERS both produced immunity in patients who survived, despite being in the same family, and until we see well-documented evidence to the contrary, it makes sense to proceed as though COVID19 will behave similarly. Because frankly, the alternative is so bleak as to be almost unthinkable: if this virus behaves similarly to the common cold, there's no point in containment because there is no end to the pandemic.

 

[BMB777]

That's my feeling too. We will probably make it through April with increasing lockdowns. May will start to get iffy. Kids who have been indoors for the better part of 6 months, between winter and virus, will get to be intolerable. Political will/financial ability to support bailouts will start to wane. And people will quite simply be desperate to have something good/normal in their day-to-day lives, even if it is just a day at the beach. So cooperation with isolation measures will start to fall apart, and then what? Is the government going to be prepared to arrest and therefore feed and shelter people who violate those orders? Or use police force to demand they return and remain home, at gunpoint if necessary? Or will they relax those measures because widespread sickness is better than widespread social unrest?

Hopefully, that's just my writer's mind working overtime, spinning tales. But with evidence mounting that these measures may be in place for months or even a year or more, I seriously question whether we have the social and political will to keep the majority of the population homebound long enough to make a difference.

If that happens you're probably looking at a civil war.