You know it's the End of Days when ... (another resale prices post)

[Littlelulu01]

Quote from another thread:

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but I booked a room only reservation for January this morning and found out that the extra adult fee for a third or fourth adult (18 and older) at Disney resort rooms (does not apply to villas or suites) is increasing for 2018.

Value resorts - $15 (was $10)
Moderate resorts - $25 (was $15)
Deluxe resorts - $35 (was $25)

Not a new charge, but they just increased it at every level (value, moderate, deluxe) resort at WDW. Plus there is no hotel tax on a DVC stay.

DVC is looking better and better.

I was pricing out a hotel night at Aulani to add on to upcoming dvc stay in January. I thought the pricing was wrong. Looking at the breakdown, it's a $100/per person/per night extra fee for each adult over two for a cash reservation. Add on the parking fees and taxes. Dvc stay on points at Aulani still attracts a tax but it's a fraction of the tax collected for cash stays.

 

[jodifla]

I was pricing out a hotel night at Aulani to add on to upcoming dvc stay in January. I thought the pricing was wrong. Looking at the breakdown, it's a $100/per person/per night extra fee for each adult over two for a cash reservation. Add on the parking fees and taxes. Dvc stay on points at Aulani still attracts a tax but it's a fraction of the tax collected for cash stays.

Yikes! I had no idea. Wow.

 

[Ben E N]

Another price point interjection. The cheapest BLT contract I could find looking just now was $129/point for a stripped 275 point contract. All others are listed at at least $135/point. Things have really skyrocketed in just the past 3 weeks. It will be interesting to see how high this can go.

 

[minorthr]

Another price point interjection. The cheapest BLT contract I could find looking just now was $129/point for a stripped 275 point contract. All others are listed at at least $135/point. Things have really skyrocketed in just the past 3 weeks. It will be interesting to see how high this can go.

Yea I noticed this about a week after we had an offer accepted which was end of July and its been creeping up more and more since.

 

[Jelly563]

Saw $170 Grand cali smh

 

[kboo]

((toys with idea of taking 2 vacations in 2018 with BLT points, as planned, and selling stripped contract for a profit))

... nah... then I'd never get to stay at BLT again...

 

[Ben E N]

I'm considering loading up on direct sale points and then flipping them for $225 a point. We should reach that price point by mid January at the rate they are rising!

 

[CaliAdventurer]

If you follow Disney FB planning blogs (smart mom etc) rentals are the big buzz. Supply and Demand. The more folks want to rent, the higher the cost, the less someone has incentive to sell and so on. In the end, its interesting, I used to think, why does Disney allow rentals when it undercuts their business but then again, its how we tried out DVC and ultimately bought and take 4 or 5 disney vacations a year up from 2. Not to mention now it is definitely helping to drive up demand for Direct DVC. I guess I should realize that they know how to squeeze the money out of any concept.
Usually, I am a day late and a dollar short- so I am so relieved that we bought another contract on a whim in late April (like the last moment of sane pricing apparently) and see no reason why we would ever need more UNLESS demand gets really crazy and 11 mo is a requisite. Then I’d need VGC for sure. : )

 

[Littlelulu01]

I just added on some direct points at CCV. Was talking to my guide about how many points- obviously the best deal is add more for the discount on price. I told him at the going rate I could probably sell off some points and come out ahead on the deal. He suggested using David's vacation club to just rent and keep. Basically I think it's a well known fact that there's a thriving resale and rental business.

If rentals were restricted, anyone wanting to rent and couldn't, would just sell and pricing of resale would plunge. Its definitely in Disney's best interest to keep price up. The gap is small enough to make savings pretty slim. Pretty sure they are priming to raise rates on direct. Especially the sold out resorts. This should drive resale higher, not lower especially on 50 or less. They seem to go back and forth on 50 direct availability for new master contracts.

The small add ons were intended to allow members a way to get a few extra here and there. Can't see disney not capitalizing on the desire for members to add on mere 25.

 

[kboo]

Just saw a stripped-until-2019 200 point Poly contract asking $140/pp.

 

[Bing Showei]

Just saw a stripped-until-2019 200 point Poly contract asking $140/pp.

Hey, kboo! I'm going to run some numbers I came up with while searching for fair value VGF contracts. I think you'll be surprised how, when you factor in all the financials, that fully stripped Poly deal may not be that bad if it matches your use year and you don't need the points immediately.

I can plug in the poly numbers while I'm at it. What would you say is "fair value" for that Poly contract if it had 2017 and 2018 points as well?

 

[kboo]

I have no idea re Poly contracts since I'm actually not looking at them.

That said, I just got an email from one of the brokers and the prices for a decent BLT, BCV and BWV contract are all within the range I was seeing when I bought back in March.

 

[kboo]

Hey, kboo! I'm going to run some numbers I came up with while searching for fair value VGF contracts. I think you'll be surprised how, when you factor in all the financials, that fully stripped Poly deal may not be that bad if it matches your use year and you don't need the points immediately.

I can plug in the poly numbers while I'm at it. What would you say is "fair value" for that Poly contract if it had 2017 and 2018 points as well?

I would be interested in what you're finding calculation wise for VGF though!

 

[skippytx]

We bought 160 BLT points back in July @ 125 a point (full 2017+ points). I wasn't thrilled with the price as at the beginning of the year 105-115 was possible, but the right contract came up, and we needed the points by Dec 2017 to book our 2018 trip so we paid the 125.

In hindsight I'm glad we did it. I still get emails and alerts on BLT contracts, and the price increases are nuts. Similar contracts are going for 140+ right now. Prices across the board have gone up significantly this year. AKV listing for over 100/pt right now, BWV around 125, BCV in the 140's, even SSR is touching 100/pt

edit: I don't see any downward pressure on pricing as long as WDW keeps increasing the price of their hotel rooms. Our first trip (Mar 2015) we stayed in an AOA family suite, back then I think it was about 350 a night. The same room is kissing 500 a night during Texas spring break week now. Our next trip we rented BLT points for a little bit more $ but really found a lot of value in the amenities of the BLT 1 bedroom, and of course the proximity to MK was huge.

 

[TexasChick123]

I have no idea re Poly contracts since I'm actually not looking at them.

That said, I just got an email from one of the brokers and the prices for a decent BLT, BCV and BWV contract are all within the range I was seeing when I bought back in March.

I just saw the June BLT contract with all points for 2017 going forward listed at $105. I'm sure it sold as soon as it hit someone's inbox! Great deal!

I saw the $106 BCV as well. That resort still baffles me as it only has 24 (?) years left on it. But what do I know? I've never stayed there, so I can't comment on the resort itself.

 

[Greg36]

I just saw the June BLT contract with all points for 2017 going forward listed at $105. I'm sure it sold as soon as it hit someone's inbox! Great deal!

I saw the $106 BCV as well. That resort still baffles me as it only has 24 (?) years left on it. But what do I know? I've never stayed there, so I can't comment on the resort itself.

Saw that one too. That company seems to have some of the lowest prices most of the time.

 

[Greg36]

actually seems like there are a lot of BLT contracts on the market right now. Will be interesting to see if they continue to move at the same pace...

 

[Ben E N]

Saw that one too. That company seems to have some of the lowest prices most of the time.

I noticed that about their email as well. I find it strange that they mail out about 8 contracts with super low prices, and then other ones on their site are not quite as low. It makes me wonder what sort of seller goes with them. Are they thinking "Hey, other people are selling for $140, why not list for $115? That sounds like a good idea"? Especially considering that I have read that this company does not close on their contracts especially quickly, so it is not like the people posting low selling prices are being guaranteed of getting their money especially quickly.

 

[TexasChick123]

The market generally corrects when there is too much inflation like what clearly happened with BLT. Higher listing prices makes it more attractive to sell which attracts a large number of sellers. When the market gets saturated with listings, the listing prices will correct.

 

[kboo]

The market generally corrects when there is too much inflation like what clearly happened with BLT. Higher listing prices makes it more attractive to sell which attracts a large number of sellers. When the market gets saturated with listings, the listing prices will correct.

Either that or it was a typo for $150

But yeah, I gotta figure those went immediately. THere's hope for us...

BTW, back in August, on the first day of our stay at BCV, he wanted to sell our BLT points and buy BCV. I did like it there, and the pool was very fun.