You know it's the End of Days when ... (another resale prices post)

[kboo]

I'm the buyer

I had to accept a different UY but as it's a 150 point contract it's ok.

Nice! Congratulations!

 

[Jperiod]

Personally, this seems like a no brainer to me that BLT would be worth more than VGF. Not only is it "cheaper" with points to stay at BLT, the 1 bedrooms have 2 bathrooms, making it feel more like a two bedroom, and the 2 bedrooms have 3 bathrooms. The ONLY reason we will likely buy VGF vs. BLT some day is we hate the contemporary decor at BLT and have no desire to stay there.

 

[supersnoop]

Disney's direct price for BLT is higher than VGF.

 

[TexasChick123]

Disney's direct price for BLT is higher than VGF.

I was told they were both $185pp. Has this changed?

 

[Ben E N]

I was told they were both $185pp. Has this changed?

I was able to buy a BLT direct add on a couple of weeks ago for $185/point. Unless VGF got cheaper, then they are still the same price.

As long as you are paying in the $130's for BLT, which you can still find plenty of contracts for, it actually comes out to a better deal than many other DVC resorts when you take into account the length of the contract and the low maintenance fees. I know the fees may jump this year due to property tax increases, but they may not as well. An AKV contract at $100/point would cost you $9.09 a year at its current maintenance fees, while a BLT contract at $135/point would only cost $8.76 per point/year due to its lower fees and longer contract.
People may have realized the combination of great location and low comparative cost of ownership and are willing to pay a bit more upfront for it. I think it is foolish for people to ask for $150 a point, but they are free to try to sell at those prices if people are willing to ignore the better deals and pay extra for the same thing.

 

[Cyberc1978]

I was able to buy a BLT direct add on a couple of weeks ago for $185/point. Unless VGF got cheaper, then they are still the same price.

As long as you are paying in the $130's for BLT, which you can still find plenty of contracts for, it actually comes out to a better deal than many other DVC resorts when you take into account the length of the contract and the low maintenance fees. I know the fees may jump this year due to property tax increases, but they may not as well. An AKV contract at $100/point would cost you $9.09 a year at its current maintenance fees, while a BLT contract at $135/point would only cost $8.76 per point/year due to its lower fees and longer contract.
People may have realized the combination of great location and low comparative cost of ownership and are willing to pay a bit more upfront for it. I think it is foolish for people to ask for $150 a point, but they are free to try to sell at those prices if people are willing to ignore the better deals and pay extra for the same thing.

How do you calculate the 9.09 and 8.76 maintenance fees?

Regards

 

[Ben E N]

How do you calculate the 9.09 and 8.76 maintenance fees?

Regards

Initial cost divided by years remaining = per year cost + annual dues per point (easily found online) = total cost per point per year

 

[MrInfinity]

Simple. Location!

When prices are going up, the most desirable location will go up the farthest the fastest. This is not a summertime swell and the plunge buyers are hoping for is not just around the corner. Toy Story is opening next year and Star Wars the next -- plus Tron, Ratatouille, so much coming. We've easily got 3 years of surging prices ahead as demand is at an all-time high and there's no relief in sight.

 

[Toreby]

Initial cost divided by years remaining = per year cost + annual dues per point (easily found online) = total cost per point per year

While I understand your reasoning, it's faulty as you're not taking 'missed opportunity" into consideration. The additional money you pay upfront for BLT compared to AKV could have been invested and earning interest instead. You could then subtract a bit annually to pay the MF. Depending on what interest rate you use you might find the result different that what you came up with.

There's also the unknown of future MF. Not only do we not know how much they'll go up, but some resorts could, and probably will, go up more than others. Maybe BLT will go up less than AKV, maybe not.

I'm not saying BLT won't be cheaper than AKV over the long run, but nobody knows. You can make assumptions, but over 40 years, even a tiny change in your assumptions can make a huge difference.

 

[mustinjourney]

if you think $140 for BLT is crazy, I saw someone sold a 362 point BCV DEC with no points until 2018 for $129 a point!!! It's missing two years of points compared to if you bought direct from disney. We you account for the value of the missing points, you're about at the same price as buying direct.

 

[TexasChick123]

if you think $140 for BLT is crazy, I saw someone sold a 362 point BCV DEC with no points until 2018 for $129 a point!!! It's missing two years of points compared to if you bought direct from disney. We you account for the value of the missing points, you're about at the same price as buying direct.

Sadly, some people don't do the analysis before they purchase. Maybe they couldn't get the points direct because of unavailability? I hope that was the case.

 

[Ben E N]

While I understand your reasoning, it's faulty as you're not taking 'missed opportunity" into consideration. The additional money you pay upfront for BLT compared to AKV could have been invested and earning interest instead. You could then subtract a bit annually to pay the MF. Depending on what interest rate you use you might find the result different that what you came up with.

There's also the unknown of future MF. Not only do we not know how much they'll go up, but some resorts could, and probably will, go up more than others. Maybe BLT will go up less than AKV, maybe not.

I'm not saying BLT won't be cheaper than AKV over the long run, but nobody knows. You can make assumptions, but over 40 years, even a tiny change in your assumptions can make a huge difference.

Absolutely a fair point. I was not trying to argue that everyone should only buy into BLT and not other resorts. If you really are worried about the value of your point cost per year, SSR is by far the best value at this present time. I just did not have interest in staying there, so it was not an option for me. You could also argue that AKV is actually a better deal because owning there allows you to stay in the value studios, which are much cheaper per point than BLT standard view.
The reason I like BLT so much is the views, proximity to the Magic Kingdom, and the 2 bathrooms in the 1 BR units. The low MFs are just a bonus. I was only trying to to reason why a high buy in cost is not as crazy of a thing as it may seem at first.

 

[Toreby]

I was only trying
to to reason why a high buy in cost is not as crazy of a thing as it may seem at first.

I agree. When we bought our first contract we narrowed it down to AKV and BLT because we wanted 1 BR that sleeps 5, and have 2 bathrooms. Those were the only two resorts. Having never stayed at either the deciding factor was the pool at AKV which looked much better than the pool at BLT. Proximity to MK was not that important to us, but I understand why it would be to someone else.

I imagine that the initial outlay of money is probably a significant amount for most people, but this is a timeshare, not something you have to buy. The whole purpose is to enjoy yourself while on vacation. If someone's whole reason for buying a certain property is because it's the cheapest initially then maybe they should reconsider DVC.

 

[Gryhndmom]

For us buying at BLT came down to two bathrooms for a 1bd villa with the master having my beloved jacuzzi bathtub! We did buy our first 100 direct and our other contacts resale and with the first I could make some good money selling resale now. IMO the location of BLT along with a good selection of room types is driving up prices.

 

[Halefamilyof6]

We're finally ready to purchase again, resale this time, and are struggling to find BLT. We want a Epcot area resort but aren't too keen on contract end dates for those two resorts and not sure if we have enough points to hold out and see what The Riveria will be like.
So...since we stayed at BLT and enjoyed it well enough, that's where we thing we want to buy. But now, there's nothing, LOL!
I guess we just have to continue being patient....blech.

 

[Ben E N]

We're finally ready to purchase again, resale this time, and are struggling to find BLT. We want a Epcot area resort but aren't too keen on contract end dates for those two resorts and not sure if we have enough points to hold out and see what The Riveria will be like.
So...since we stayed at BLT and enjoyed it well enough, that's where we thing we want to buy. But now, there's nothing, LOL!
I guess we just have to continue being patient....blech.

I was looking at contracts myself last night and was surprised by both the lack of options, and the asking prices for some of them ($140/pt for 300+ points).
There are only two explanations I can think of to explain that.

1. If I had a BLT contract that I was looking to unload, and I saw that prices shot up $20/pt on average over the past 3 months, I would want to hold onto my contact and see how high prices will go. I am sure there are some people who sold in June that are now kicking themselves for not selling for $135/pt. (Then again, a bird in the hand is as good as two in the bush.)

The lack of contracts would then drive the price up on the few that are left, lifting the asking price further, leading to more people hanging on to their contacts, and so on.

2. More people just want to be at BLT. Especially after the D23 announcements, and this is the new norm.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I just bought direct, but am still getting my email alerts for resale (was trying to buy resale first) and this morning there's a 25 point BWV asking $150. Now add $20/pt for higher closing buying resale and at least $10/pt for the missing 2017 points..... $180???

Why would anyone think of asking for that? Will anyone pay it? Why would they?

 

[kboo]

I just bought direct, but am still getting my email alerts for resale (was trying to buy resale first) and this morning there's a 25 point BWV asking $150. Now add $20/pt for higher closing buying resale and at least $10/pt for the missing 2017 points..... $180???

Why would anyone think of asking for that? Will anyone pay it? Why would they?

There's also a 250 point contract for $125! But yeah, the 25 point BWV almost seems like it's asking for Disney to ROFR it.

 

[Cyberc1978]

There's also a 250 point contract for $125! But yeah, the 25 point BWV almost seems like it's asking for Disney to ROFR it.

That’s crazy. I’m currently in rofr for a 150 BWV at 90$pp and that contract has all 2017/2018 points plus 52 from 2016.

 

[Gryhndmom]

Smaller point contracts always go for more at any resort.