Yet another WWYD? RIV vs. AUL

[NVDISFamily]

I'm no expert on Aulani but from our research it seems like as long as we have reasonable flexibility booking at 7 months is not too hard. Also, going to HI is something I'd be willing to save up some points and book a nicer view so I'm not trying to hunt for the value rooms there. We really want to go, but due to the ease of booking at 7 months, I have very little desire to own points there.

Riviera on the other hand is a place we love and as we want to have the option to book the standard view rooms when possible (could argue that it's a better view due to fireworks), having the booking advantage is worth owning there vs other resorts. The big pain is having other non-direct points in our mix so we can't pool all of our points together and have a huge fiesta at Riviera (I do believe DVC might fix this problem at some point in the coming years).

 

[Cfabar1]

Is buying Aulani points to stay at Aulani the best use of points? When I was doing some quick looking at it a few days ago, it seemed like it made sense for the hotel rooms, but that, at least the dates I looked into, it made more sense to pay cash rather than use points for the suites.

 

[Sandisw]

I'm no expert on Aulani but from our research it seems like as long as we have reasonable flexibility booking at 7 months is not too hard. Also, going to HI is something I'd be willing to save up some points and book a nicer view so I'm not trying to hunt for the value rooms there. We really want to go, but due to the ease of booking at 7 months, I have very little desire to own points there.

Riviera on the other hand is a place we love and as we want to have the option to book the standard view rooms when possible (could argue that it's a better view due to fireworks), having the booking advantage is worth owning there vs other resorts. The big pain is having other non-direct points in our mix so we can't pool all of our points together and have a huge fiesta at Riviera (I do believe DVC might fix this problem at some point in the coming years).

Having the restricted points was frustrating for us too and why we sold after only owning the contract one year.

But, I don’t think we will see them fix it because it wasn’t something that had to do in the first place.

 

[intamin]

I'm no expert on Aulani but from our research it seems like as long as we have reasonable flexibility booking at 7 months is not too hard. Also, going to HI is something I'd be willing to save up some points and book a nicer view so I'm not trying to hunt for the value rooms there. We really want to go, but due to the ease of booking at 7 months, I have very little desire to own points there.

Yep even though I own AUL, I wouldn't purchase it just to use at AUL unless the standard studios/hotel rooms matter to you i.e. if you're a local and you do weekend staycations. I bought it just so I could have a subsidized contract and would rather own AUL over SSR. If hindsight were 20/20, I probably would have considered buying BLT/CCV instead but I don't regret my purchase. If I decided to flip it right now I'd probably only take a small hit but I don't really feel the need to do so.

 

[J-Dog]

I'm no expert on Aulani but from our research it seems like as long as we have reasonable flexibility booking at 7 months is not too hard. Also, going to HI is something I'd be willing to save up some points and book a nicer view so I'm not trying to hunt for the value rooms there. We really want to go, but due to the ease of booking at 7 months, I have very little desire to own points there.

Riviera on the other hand is a place we love and as we want to have the option to book the standard view rooms when possible (could argue that it's a better view due to fireworks), having the booking advantage is worth owning there vs other resorts. The big pain is having other non-direct points in our mix so we can't pool all of our points together and have a huge fiesta at Riviera (I do believe DVC might fix this problem at some point in the coming years).

Yep even though I own AUL, I wouldn't purchase it just to use at AUL unless the standard studios/hotel rooms matter to you i.e. if you're a local and you do weekend staycations. I bought it just so I could have a subsidized contract and would rather own AUL over SSR. If hindsight were 20/20, I probably would have considered buying BLT/CCV instead but I don't regret my purchase. If I decided to flip it right now I'd probably only take a small hit but I don't really feel the need to do so.

Yeah, I tend to agree with both of you. Using our RIV points at AUL is almost (but not quite) enough points for a week in a 2Br Ocean View, so as long as availability remains decent at 7-months, then it doesn't make much objective sense to buy AUL.

Now, subjectively, it's another matter...

Maybe I won't buy anything and wait for a subsidized AUL contract. Which may never happen with an October UY.

Thanks for all the help.

 

[intamin]

Yeah, I tend to agree with both of you. Using our RIV points at AUL is almost (but not quite) enough points for a week in a 2Br Ocean View, so as long as availability remains decent at 7-months, then it doesn't make much objective sense to buy AUL.

Now, subjectively, it's another matter...

Maybe I won't buy anything and wait for a subsidized AUL contract. Which may never happen with an October UY.

Thanks for all the help.

Yeah it's a tough call, AUL resale is not a bad way to get some cheap points but it really comes down to what you intend to use it for. It takes a long time to recuperate the difference in price between AUL resale and AUL sub so I wouldn't shrug it off.

Want AUL standard view/hotel room? AUL resale/AUL subsidized
Want to use the points at RIV and just want ocean views? RIV
Want to maximize increase in number of points but still want ocean views? SSR but can also do CCV/BLT depending on if you care about home resort priority at any of those.

 

[NorCalFanatic]

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[tidefan]

I say go with Aulani... or, just get the cheapest SAP (SSR?). Personally, we just didn't care for RIV.

(Maybe we just had an off-stay. It was after the COVID restart and we went to the skyliner and it took over 45 minutes to get on to go to EPCOT. They were all full coming from CBR/POP/AOA and they were only loading every other one, it was a nightmare. Also, we just didn't care for the vibe of RIV, but I can see why people like it...)

 

[intamin]

I say go with Aulani... or, just get the cheapest SAP (SSR?). Personally, we just didn't care for RIV.

(Maybe we just had an off-stay. It was after the COVID restart and we went to the skyliner and it took over 45 minutes to get on to go to EPCOT. They were all full coming from CBR/POP/AOA and they were only loading every other one, it was a nightmare. Also, we just didn't care for the vibe of RIV, but I can see why people like it...)

RIV is a very polarizing resort lol. Do they intentionally block off the gondolas so people at RIV can have space to utilize the gondolas in the morning? If not, they really should. Fortunately for us we're not early morning people so we usually get to the park like at 10 or later after early morning crowds have died but I can definitely see how annoying it is for each gondola to show up completely filled.

 

[J-Dog]

Yeah it's a tough call, AUL resale is not a bad way to get some cheap points but it really comes down to what you intend to use it for. It takes a long time to recuperate the difference in price between AUL resale and AUL sub so I wouldn't shrug it off.

Want AUL standard view/hotel room? AUL resale/AUL subsidized
Want to use the points at RIV and just want ocean views? RIV
Want to maximize increase in number of points but still want ocean views? SSR but can also do CCV/BLT depending on if you care about home resort priority at any of those.

Yeah. That's us - we use the points at RIV and will likely always book higher-point rooms at AUL (at least for the foreseeable future), so we will either go with more RIV points, or maybe just do nothing and wait for that perfect AUL subsidized contract to come along, I think. Thanks again.

 

[NorCalFanatic]

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[Sandisw]

RIV is a very polarizing resort lol. Do they intentionally block off the gondolas so people at RIV can have space to utilize the gondolas in the morning? If not, they really should. Fortunately for us we're not early morning people so we usually get to the park like at 10 or later after early morning crowds have died but I can definitely see how annoying it is for each gondola to show up completely filled.

We have been there and they indeed have sent gondolas for Epcot in the morning empty. It was like every other one. They told us that they monitor the line and radio to CBR to send empty. We were there one morning when the CM did it,

Of course for HS, the cars are all empty because no one is coming from Epcot.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Yeah. That's us - we use the points at RIV and will likely always book higher-point rooms at AUL (at least for the foreseeable future), so we will either go with more RIV points, or maybe just do nothing and wait for that perfect AUL subsidized contract to come along, I think. Thanks again.

I would try throwing out $90ish unsubsidized non-stripped AUL offers until someone bites…. It’s a lot less out of pocket than RIV direct and I doubt the current stripped $130ish subsidized contracts would catch up during your holding period.

 

[NorCalFanatic]

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[J-Dog]

I would try throwing out $90ish unsubsidized non-stripped AUL offers until someone bites…. It’s a lot less out of pocket than RIV direct and I doubt the current stripped $130ish subsidized contracts would catch up during your holding period.

Yeah, I agree that it might be worth it for the right price. I was planning on being even more greedy than that, i.e. in the $80-85 range. But not sure if I will do it or not.

 

[DanCali]

IMO, people are drastically overpaying for double stripped AUL subsidized dues when compared to full loaded unsubsidized that are $30pp or more less.

There is indeed a pattern of investors buying these contracts (mostly from Japanese sellers), stripping them, and selling them at a 30% premium to comparable unsubsidized contracts.

But I'm curious what your assumptions are when you say "drastically overpaying"?

Given these 2 possibilities:

On one extreme - if you hold a subsidized and unsubsidized contract to 2062, do you think the unsubsidized still comes out ahead?

And if you sell them both in 7-10 years, shouldn't the subsidized contract still command high premium (say 25%-30%) over the unsubsidized one while saving about $2.5/year per point in the meantime? Are you assuming their resale values in 7-10 years will converge?

In the end, it comes down to the assumptions you make... For the loaded contract, you do pay dues on current year points (you gain more from banked points). For a stripped contract the seller pays dues for the stripped points. If you assume you resort to renting points because a stripped contract and rent our points from a loaded contract, there is some extra value to be had there. But you can also just view it as a loss of usage of 1-2 years out of 40, so it's an extra 5% cost, and not much more.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Yeah, I agree that it might be worth it for the right price. I was planning on being even more greedy than that, i.e. in the $80-85 range. But not sure if I will do it or not.

That may be tricky on a fully loaded contract given the desire for 100ish points and a lower inventory use year. But, you never know!

Given that the out of pocket difference is essentially $10pp or $1000… I’d try and get the contract sooner so that I could get through ROFR and get my vacation booked sooner.

Of course, I try to spend as many days of my life in Hawaii as I possibly can…

 

[AstroBlasters]

There is indeed a pattern of investors buying these contracts (mostly from Japanese sellers), stripping them, and selling them at a 30% premium to comparable unsubsidized contracts.

But I'm curious what your assumptions are when you say "drastically overpaying"?

Given these 2 possibilities:

On one extreme - if you hold a subsidized and unsubsidized contract to 2062, do you think the unsubsidized still comes out ahead?

And if you sell them both in 7-10 years, shouldn't the subsidized contract still command high premium (say 25%-30%) over the unsubsidized one while saving about $2.5/year per point in the meantime? Are you assuming their resale values in 7-10 years will converge?

In the end, it comes down to the assumptions you make... For the loaded contract, you do pay dues on current year points (you gain more from banked points). For a stripped contract the seller pays dues for the stripped points. If you assume you resort to renting points because a stripped contract and rent our points from a loaded contract, there is some extra value to be had there. But you can also just view it as a loss of usage of 1-2 years out of 40, so it's an extra 5% cost, and not much more.

I think the subsidized contracts should and will always trade for a premium. I just don’t think that a stripped subsidized contract without any 2023 or 2024 points should sell for $30pp more than a regular contract with those points. If you assume that you can sell those points for a net $10pp (including dues) then it actually make it a $50pp delta.

Given a $2ish dues difference, I don’t think most buyers would ever break even over their holding period if they took that $50pp delta and put it in a US Treasury ladder and used it to pay dues.

But, you are correct it all comes down to assumptions. I put more value on the next 10 years then I do years 10-20 because the future always carries more risk.

Of course, I would never buy a stripped contract because I want to go Hawaii!

 

[DanCali]

I think the subsidized contracts should and will always trade for a premium. I just don’t think that a stripped subsidized contract without any 2023 or 2024 points should sell for $30pp more than a regular contract with those points. If you assume that you can sell those points for a net $10pp (including dues) then it actually make it a $50pp delta.

Given a $2ish dues difference, I don’t think most buyers would ever break even over their holding period if they took that $50pp delta and put it in a US Treasury ladder and used it to pay dues.

But, you are correct it all comes down to assumptions. I put more value on the next 10 years then I do years 10-20 because the future always carries more risk.

Of course, I would never buy a stripped contract because I want to go Hawaii!

Don't forget that the 2ish dues difference (more like $2.25) also grows over time as dues grow, which pretty much offsets the benefit from the Treasuries.

In fact, at a modest 3% annual dues growth rate, the dues difference will be over $7 by 2062... Unsubsidized dues will be about $29 and subsidized dues about $22... Scary thought!

 

[Nursemanit]

Use year for a WDW and Aulani should not matter much - you can transfer and October u/y sucks for finding good resale.