Would you join a lawsuit against DVC to stop/revert the 2020 reallocation?

Now see the 2013 language...
The "Premium" has ALWAYS been there. The first OKW point chart has points needed to reserve a Studio and a 1BR higher than the points to reserve a lockoff 2BR - for all seasons. It was not specifically called a Premium in that POS, but it has existed since the first point chart in 1991.
 
Wow, we all knew the lockoff premium increase was going to benefit Disney, but looking at the actual numbers it is shocking. 13.9 million more in breakage revenue is HUGE.

DVC Members at each resort do benefit from the breakage income and that has always been reflected in the annual report. The limit placed on 'breakage' income provided to offset maintenance fees has also been there since the beginning and included in the legal documents. This is NOT a new concept created with/for the 2020 reallocation.

Before throwing around anecdotal numbers, be sure to deduct the expenses involved with those cash reservation numbers - advertising, labor costs for CRO, maintaining the online reservation system (and NOT the DVC reservation system, but the WDW reservation system where this breakage income is actually generated).

So, the real complaint now is that "we" just didn't recognize that Disney is allowed to make a profit?
 
DVC Members at each resort do benefit from the breakage income and that has always been reflected in the annual report. The limit placed on 'breakage' income provided to offset maintenance fees has also been there since the beginning and included in the legal documents. This is NOT a new concept created with/for the 2020 reallocation.

Before throwing around anecdotal numbers, be sure to deduct the expenses involved with those cash reservation numbers - advertising, labor costs for CRO, maintaining the online reservation system (and NOT the DVC reservation system, but the WDW reservation system where this breakage income is actually generated).

So, the real complaint now is that "we" just didn't recognize that Disney is allowed to make a profit?
Well yes and no. I think the complaint is that a point rebalance should actually minimize breakage income. In fact I was told on my two calls with senior leadership that is the effective mandate of the POS, simplest interpretation. As less breakage means even demand and 100% capacity. Also DVCMC sets the point charts and they are a fiduciary and fiduciary rules prevent them from doing anything that is out of our best interest to turn a profit. So if the new point charts increase breakage it is 100% out of line with their fiduciary role and they must rebalance again. However, the limitation is showing that it will increase breakage before it happens, unless someone built a data analytics model with all the data Disney has to prove it.

While I disagree with some points with DVCMC, one possible reason they increased the spread was a choice maybe to eat points that are being banked/borrowed for a year they feel demand will be super high because of SW:GE. However, I feel the change made isn’t allowed on a certain front but that is my opinion and I’ve chosen to express that to them. The ends no matter how beneficial don’t justify the means. So while there may be valid reasons I don’t think it necessarily should have been done they way they did it.
 
I agree that it’s eye opening, but to Dean’s point, optics aside, if Disney can prove that the reallocation was designed to better the greater membership (more specifically to address demand), the financial windfall (Can $33M even be called that?) would would be immaterial.

Absent the data, I’m not sure how easy that would be to prove this is a money grab.
This is where many of us get more frustrated.

In 60 pages I have not seen an hypothesis as to what demand issue is addressed by this, that passes any kind of a sniff test.
Weekday/weekend - No significant changes is the chart If they would have changed this due to demand imbalance, some of us may not like it, if our specific use patterns were impacted, but we could acknowledge it may address a issue. Based on the POC, Disney could not "generate additional points" or benefit from this.
Season premiums - No significant changes in the chart Most of us acknowledge this exists. If they would have shifted seasons around and changed the relative point charges, again some of us may not have liked it based on our specific use patterns, but it is real and changes may help balance demand. Based on the POC, Disney could not "generate additional points" or benefit from this.
Balance between villa types - There is clearly demand variation here. (We all know this, thanks to all the work you and Skier_pete do). The problem I have is this is also where the most significant changes have occurred, but these changes will do nothing but make the existing imbalance demand worse.
Based on your work Studios have the highest demand and 1 BR have the lowest. 2BR fall in between, but tend to follow studio based on LO's.
The changes can be generalized by saying studios went up 1-2 points across the board. 1 BR went up 1-3 points across the board, and 2BR were flat to an occasional down a point here and there.

If I am a studio user.. You raised my rates, so I have fewer points/nights to play with. Since a studio costs more, you may tempt me consider a 1BR over a studio, but you kept the premium the same, so I stay a studio user even more so. The premium to go up in category to a 1BR stayed the same and I effectively have fewer room nights at my disposal. I have a hard time believing studio users jump to 2BR, even though the premium is 1-2 points less.

If I am a 1BR user. You raised my rates, so I have fewer points/nights to play with. If I am a low point 1BR owner, you either force me to a shorter stay (decrease the 1BR demand) or force me to consider dropping down to a studio (decrease the 1BR demand and increase the studio demand - not helping the situation. I'll call this the "sorry girls, we have to crowd into a studio because we don't have enough points for a 1BR anymore" option) If I am a high point 1BR owner, you actually tempt me into a 2BR (keeps 1BR demand the same but actually increases studio demand - again, not helping). On some charts the 1BR to 2BR difference is only 4 points. For that difference, I personally am considering 2BR stays. I was never in that camp.

If I am a 2BR user. My rates stayed the same, and maybe even went down in a few cases. You made studio and 1BR cost more, so I am less likely to step down to a 1BR since the savings was decreased.

If studios went up, and 1BR went down - demand may have been balanced but no points would have been "generated". Studios users would not be happy, 1BR would be happy, but the change would have "helped".
If studios went up and 1BR stayed flat - the demand balance would have been helped and a few points would have been "generated", but we could see how it would "help" demand balance.
Raising both, does not help demand imbalance, it may even make it worse.


I might be missing something here.
What possible demand problem is being address by these changes?
How do these changes actually help with that problem?

We have asked Disney and they have not given a response other than 1BR have a big demand. (really??)

Short of any other reasonable proposal form anyone here as to what demand problem is being addressed, and how this will help that demand problem, I am left to assume the only demand problem this address is Disney's demand to make more money.

I may have missed something here. If anyone has an idea as to how this helps us, please share it so we can discuss it.
 

Well yes and no. I think the complaint is that a point rebalance should actually minimize breakage income. In fact I was told on my two calls with senior leadership that is the effective mandate of the POS, simplest interpretation. As less breakage means even demand and 100% capacity. Also DVCMC sets the point charts and they are a fiduciary and fiduciary rules prevent them from doing anything that is out of our best interest to turn a profit. So if the new point charts increase breakage it is 100% out of line with their fiduciary role and they must rebalance again. However, the limitation is showing that it will increase breakage before it happens, unless someone built a data analytics model with all the data Disney has to prove it.

While I disagree with some points with DVCMC, one possible reason they increased the spread was a choice maybe to eat points that are being banked/borrowed for a year they feel demand will be super high because of SW:GE. However, I feel the change made isn’t allowed on a certain front but that is my opinion and I’ve chosen to express that to them. The ends no matter how beneficial don’t justify the means. So while there may be valid reasons I don’t think it necessarily should have been done they way they did it.

If a by-product of the reallocation is that Disney sees additional income but the reallocation otherwise otherwise accomplishes the goal of balancing demand, so be it.

If the goal of the reallocation was to create additional profit for Disney with no benefit to members, then I can agree that there may be a problem.

However, I have seen nothing indicated here other than the same complaints generated by past reallocations.

Could DVCMC be more transparent by providing the data used to define the imbalance? - certainly. However, such information has never been offered in the past and nowhere in our documents does it state that we are entitled to such information. As a result , we are left to our own devices to imagine how DVC Members can benefit from change as evidenced by items posted in this very thread - now 60-plus pages in length.

We have seen a lot of hyperbole where opinions have been stated as fact and 'clearly' has been used to excess (IMHO) for things actually not clear at all. Such is the nature of humans and, of course, the internet. :)
 
DVC Members at each resort do benefit from the breakage income and that has always been reflected in the annual report. The limit placed on 'breakage' income provided to offset maintenance fees has also been there since the beginning and included in the legal documents. This is NOT a new concept created with/for the 2020 reallocation.

Before throwing around anecdotal numbers, be sure to deduct the expenses involved with those cash reservation numbers - advertising, labor costs for CRO, maintaining the online reservation system (and NOT the DVC reservation system, but the WDW reservation system where this breakage income is actually generated).

So, the real complaint now is that "we" just didn't recognize that Disney is allowed to make a profit?
To me, the real complaint, is I had the false impression that the members got 98% of the capacity of the resort. The remaining 2% went to maintenance and missed booking.

Yes, the Lock-off premium has always been there, but I never ran the numbers on it's significance. (again, it is based on an assumption of 75% of LO's are booked as a studio and 1BR) But when I ran the numbers based on the charts that members only filled 93% of the resort with the 2019 charts and now they would fill 90% of the resort with the 2020 charts. I always naively thought we had 98% of the resort.

So the complaint is, we paid for 98% entire resort as a whole, yet Disney gets the use of 8-10% to "make a profit".

I do not believe these to be anecdotal numbers. They are based on a simple assumption, which I have included in my posts. I have made the %LO as studio/1BR a variable in my calculations. It may change the impact, but the impact is always very significant. (BTW DVC reservations is like 800K per year for all of SSR, the smallest of the components I included)
 
To me, the real complaint, is I had the false impression that the members got 98% of the capacity of the resort. The remaining 2% went to maintenance and missed booking.

Yes, the Lock-off premium has always been there, but I never ran the numbers on it's significance. (again, it is based on an assumption of 75% of LO's are booked as a studio and 1BR) But when I ran the numbers based on the charts that members only filled 93% of the resort with the 2019 charts and now they would fill 90% of the resort with the 2020 charts. I always naively thought we had 98% of the resort.

So the complaint is, we paid for 98% entire resort as a whole, yet Disney gets the use of 8-10% to "make a profit".

I do not believe these to be anecdotal numbers. They are based on a simple assumption, which I have included in my posts. I have made the %LO as studio/1BR a variable in my calculations. It may change the impact, but the impact is always very significant. (BTW DVC reservations is like 800K per year for all of SSR, the smallest of the components I included)
I have no idea where you got the idea that member's own 98% of total points at any DVC Resort. DVD has typically maintained about 4% at each resort and, at the older resorts, likely have more inventory through foreclosure and ROFR. At the resorts still being actively sold, they also still have access to additional inventory. Yes, some of that is used for renovation/maintenance. They also have the fiduciary responsibility to rent out Member points used for non-DVC inventory (DCL, ABD, Concierge Collection, Disney Collection, World Passport, etc.) and that also removes resort accommodations from inventory otherwise available DVC Members.

Since 'we' do not know the extent of that inventory, 'we' naturally assume it ALL goes into Disney's pocket when that is a bit disingenuous on 'our' part, but makes for great internet discussion fodder.
 
This is where many of us get more frustrated.
If I am a 1BR user. You raised my rates, so I have fewer points/nights to play with. If I am a low point 1BR owner, you either force me to a shorter stay (decrease the 1BR demand) or force me to consider dropping down to a studio (decrease the 1BR demand and increase the studio demand - not helping the situation. I'll call this the "sorry girls, we have to crowd into a studio because we don't have enough points for a 1BR anymore" option) If I am a high point 1BR owner, you actually tempt me into a 2BR (keeps 1BR demand the same but actually increases studio demand - again, not helping). On some charts the 1BR to 2BR difference is only 4 points. For that difference, I personally am considering 2BR stays. I was never in that camp.

I own at own at OKW, BLT, & VGF and only use 1BRs except for an occasional lead-in studio night. I am also a high point owner. I am going to lose nights and have no use for a 2BR, which I would even get less nights in, since there is only 2 of us. There is not greater demand for the 1BRs! Further, the increasing of points for 1BRs, particularly at BLT (14 & 21 pts/week) and VGF (21 pts/week for standard) is definitely not in the best interest of members. As mentioned, 1BR nights are lost and higher demand is created for studios which are already in higher demand. This change is only in the best interest of DVC!
 
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If a by-product of the reallocation is that Disney sees additional income but the reallocation otherwise otherwise accomplishes the goal of balancing demand, so be it.

If the goal of the reallocation was to create additional profit for Disney with no benefit to members, then I can agree that there may be a problem.
So how does one prove it either way? I can’t help but feel like we’re at an impasse.

Disney can state, for example, that Bungalows are more in demand than studios at PVB. Everything we’ve experienced will say otherwise, but Disney can simply state they have data to prove it, data we have no legally protected expectation to, as you’ve pointed out, and you could accept that and say “they have more data than we do, so I will trust their word before any anecdotal experiences shared on these boards.” And there would be no argument against it.

Is this hyperbole? Absolutely. But to a lot of us, the idea that 1BR demand warrants an increase defies what we see and experience when we look at these charts and would not be a huge departure from the PVB scenario.

I openly acknowledge that Disney has detailed metrics that no member has access to, but I can’t help but wonder if in the face of tremendous financial motivation to, that a company might rely on the human tendency to acquiesce to change when the obstacles to affect that change seem insurmountable.

Absent guide from Disney, yeah, these are among the things we will wonder.
 
Something for people to think about. If points for lock-off units had been based on the studio and 1BRs, instead of the 2BRs, then there would be too many point available.

Hypothetically, lets say that at Resort A, a Studio during January have a point value of 10, 1BR 22 and 2BR 29. Everytime a 2BR lockoff was booked, there would be 3 points that couldn't be used. DVC would have oversold the resorts and some owners would not be able to use all of their points.

By using 2BRs as the basis for the available points, DVC cannot oversell their resorts and every owner should be able to use all of their points. Now there are personal situations that may prevent a user from using their points every year, but that is what banking and borrowing are for.
 
So how does one prove it either way? I can’t help but feel like we’re at an impasse.

Disney can state, for example, that Bungalows are more in demand than studios at PVB. Everything we’ve experienced will say otherwise, but Disney can simply state they have data to prove it, data we have no legally protected expectation to, as you’ve pointed out, and you could accept that and say “they have more data than we do, so I will trust their word before any anecdotal experiences shared on these boards.” And there would be no argument against it.

If that were the case, balancing demand at PVB would increase the points required for the Bungalows and lower the points required for the Studios. I suspect that few would have any issue if that were the case.

Is this hyperbole? Absolutely. But to a lot of us, the idea that 1BR demand warrants an increase defies what we see and experience when we look at these charts and would not be a huge departure from the PVB scenario.

I openly acknowledge that Disney has detailed metrics that no member has access to, but I can’t help but wonder if in the face of tremendous financial motivation to, that a company might rely on the human tendency to acquiesce to change when the obstacles to affect that change seem insurmountable.

Absent guide from Disney, yeah, these are among the things we will wonder.

@drusba offered an example of how Disney might define 'demand' in an earlier post in this thread which could offer insight as to how the reallocation was justified.
 
If a by-product of the reallocation is that Disney sees additional income but the reallocation otherwise otherwise accomplishes the goal of balancing demand, so be it.

If the goal of the reallocation was to create additional profit for Disney with no benefit to members, then I can agree that there may be a problem.

However, I have seen nothing indicated here other than the same complaints generated by past reallocations.

Could DVCMC be more transparent by providing the data used to define the imbalance? - certainly. However, such information has never been offered in the past and nowhere in our documents does it state that we are entitled to such information. As a result , we are left to our own devices to imagine how DVC Members can benefit from change as evidenced by items posted in this very thread - now 60-plus pages in length.

We have seen a lot of hyperbole where opinions have been stated as fact and 'clearly' has been used to excess (IMHP) for things actually not clear at all. Such is the nature of humans and, of course, the internet. :)
I respectfully disagree. The point of the reallocation should be each vacation home should be booked 100% by members. That is literally their responsibility as a fiduciary. So technically that should reduce breakage by definition. Literally the exact words came out of their mouths. They said balancing demand meant that at all units were occupied at the same speed st 100%.

I also believe the raw data is probably something we could request at the requesters cost and they would have to provide it. What would be proprietary and not have to be provided is the model that developed the 2020 point charts.
 
Thank you for taking the time doing this, really appreciated. However I have to clarify that the document she says is not legally binding is the "Product Understanding Document" that they make buyers sign and is a summary of the POS. One of the points I made to her was that document changed over the years to reflect their different interpretations of the POS without changing the POS itself.
Paragraph 10.6.3 of the condominium declaration is legally binding but she couldn't answer about why it seems in clear contradiction with the reallocations they've done since 2013 and she'll come back to me about it.

By the way, today I found this in Florida statute:
The timeshare instrument must also provide for the application of any insurance proceeds arising from a casualty to either the replacement or acquisition of additional similar accommodations or facilities or to the removal of purchasers from the multisite timeshare plan so that purchasers will not be competing for available accommodations on a greater than one-to-one use right to use night requirement ratio.

Paragraph 10.6.3 has been written because of this. Another proof it's legally binding. And that paragraph clearly states that if a unit and all its owners are removed from the system because of destructive damage, then the rest of the resort will be in balance according to the one-to-one rule. This would prevent reallocation of points cross units.
We'll see what she replies to that, maybe that it only applies to the first year? :rotfl2:



May I ask you a further favor and ask her one more thing?
The Florida statute says that the one-to-one rule applies to each timeshare unit, not the whole resort.
The definition of a timeshare unit is:
“Timeshare unit” means an accommodation of a timeshare plan which is divided into timeshare periods. Any timeshare unit in which a door or doors connecting two or more separate rooms are capable of being locked to create two or more private dwellings shall only constitute one timeshare unit for purposes of this chapter, unless the timeshare instrument provides that timeshare interests may be separately conveyed in such locked-off portions. (my emphasis)
My interpretation is that clearly a 3BR villa is a single timeshare unit. While there are doors separating private dwellings, those cannot be booked independently and you never find in the POS a reference to "the third bedroom of a grand villa".
The same is true for dedicated studios, 1BR and 2BR.
My doubt is for the 2BR lockoff. They can be locked to form two separated Vacation Homes (like Disney calls them). The issue revolves around what conveyed means.
I've looked online but I'm not a lawyer. In the definitions of Conveying in legal terms I've found, it means: granting someone a right on something. So conveying a house means granting ownership of that house.
Can we say that the POS for SSR "conveys" also studios and 1BR?
I think it does because:
- the POS clearly defines the studios and 1BR as Vacation Homes, with no difference of definition from the other room types
- it says Vacation Homes will be numbered and portions of a lockoff have a number
- it explicitly says that a 2BR Vacation Home can be locked off into separate studios and 1BR Vacation Homes.
- there is a rule in the Membership agreement saying that owners will always be able to book at least one night in a studio or a 1BR for XX points
- there is a description of a maximum reallocation that could level the cost of studios and 1BR up to a certain maximum
- DVD sells fixed weeks for studios and 1BR also at resorts that do not have dedicated room (this is my strongest argument)
For all those reasons I think the POS conveys also the locked off rooms, because it grants rights on them to owners. For this reason they have to be considered as timeshare units and so the one-to-one rule applies to them as well.

However, others disagree with me, I really would like the opinion of a lawyer who specializes on Timeshares.
Thank a lot if you could do this!

She said to take this with a grain of salt as research completely into the way Disney processes deeds and the way each individual condo complex declaration and bylaws are set.

Generally speaking she does not feel that point allocations for specific room sizes matter, more so overall points for the resort.

Probably not what you wanted to hear.
 
We all realize that it's not 41,000 different people. The point is that the public is reading a lot of negative about DVC. If someone is on the fence about whether to buy at Riviera, they might have second thoughts, second thoughts about buying DVC at all. These dollar signs are much more significant than parking fees, which are pretty common.

In the absence of a smoking gun, this is unlikely to generate any widespread public outrage. In the last decade, DVC has come under fire for 3-4 waves of resale restrictions, the Aulani dues misstep, higher-than-anticipated dues increases at a variety of resorts, numerous point reallocations, valet parking and many other topics.

Unless their decisions are proven to violate the contracts or timeshare law, I don't foresee this becoming a lightning rod for DVC criticism.
 
This is where many of us get more frustrated.

In 60 pages I have not seen an hypothesis as to what demand issue is addressed by this, that passes any kind of a sniff test.
Weekday/weekend - No significant changes is the chart If they would have changed this due to demand imbalance, some of us may not like it, if our specific use patterns were impacted, but we could acknowledge it may address a issue. Based on the POC, Disney could not "generate additional points" or benefit from this.
Season premiums - No significant changes in the chart Most of us acknowledge this exists. If they would have shifted seasons around and changed the relative point charges, again some of us may not have liked it based on our specific use patterns, but it is real and changes may help balance demand. Based on the POC, Disney could not "generate additional points" or benefit from this.
Balance between villa types - There is clearly demand variation here. (We all know this, thanks to all the work you and Skier_pete do). The problem I have is this is also where the most significant changes have occurred, but these changes will do nothing but make the existing imbalance demand worse.
Based on your work Studios have the highest demand and 1 BR have the lowest. 2BR fall in between, but tend to follow studio based on LO's.
The changes can be generalized by saying studios went up 1-2 points across the board. 1 BR went up 1-3 points across the board, and 2BR were flat to an occasional down a point here and there.

If I am a studio user.. You raised my rates, so I have fewer points/nights to play with. Since a studio costs more, you may tempt me consider a 1BR over a studio, but you kept the premium the same, so I stay a studio user even more so. The premium to go up in category to a 1BR stayed the same and I effectively have fewer room nights at my disposal. I have a hard time believing studio users jump to 2BR, even though the premium is 1-2 points less.

If I am a 1BR user. You raised my rates, so I have fewer points/nights to play with. If I am a low point 1BR owner, you either force me to a shorter stay (decrease the 1BR demand) or force me to consider dropping down to a studio (decrease the 1BR demand and increase the studio demand - not helping the situation. I'll call this the "sorry girls, we have to crowd into a studio because we don't have enough points for a 1BR anymore" option) If I am a high point 1BR owner, you actually tempt me into a 2BR (keeps 1BR demand the same but actually increases studio demand - again, not helping). On some charts the 1BR to 2BR difference is only 4 points. For that difference, I personally am considering 2BR stays. I was never in that camp.

If I am a 2BR user. My rates stayed the same, and maybe even went down in a few cases. You made studio and 1BR cost more, so I am less likely to step down to a 1BR since the savings was decreased.

If studios went up, and 1BR went down - demand may have been balanced but no points would have been "generated". Studios users would not be happy, 1BR would be happy, but the change would have "helped".
If studios went up and 1BR stayed flat - the demand balance would have been helped and a few points would have been "generated", but we could see how it would "help" demand balance.
Raising both, does not help demand imbalance, it may even make it worse.


I might be missing something here.
What possible demand problem is being address by these changes?
How do these changes actually help with that problem?

We have asked Disney and they have not given a response other than 1BR have a big demand. (really??)

Short of any other reasonable proposal form anyone here as to what demand problem is being addressed, and how this will help that demand problem, I am left to assume the only demand problem this address is Disney's demand to make more money.

I may have missed something here. If anyone has an idea as to how this helps us, please share it so we can discuss it.

This summarises my own questions exactly. Well done.
 
@drusba offered an example of how Disney might define 'demand' in an earlier post in this thread which could offer insight as to how the reallocation was justified.
Yes they did, and that is a possible explanation of how a 1BR is in more demand than a 2BR (based on total bookings total bookings)
So I guess that means SSR is the DVC resort in the highest demand? and VGC has the lowest demand. Based on total bookings.

At least we could debate this.
 
@zavandor, I think I remember that Y (or V?, can’t remember which is correct) asked you to tell her “what you want.” It seems to me that a recurring issue in this thread is the lack of transparency and, yes, data from DVCMC to justify increasing 1-BR point costs. Thanks to @skier_pete and @Bing Showei, “we” have data gathered from the DVC Member booking tools showing that 1-BR are the last to book, leading “us” to conclude that 1-BR are the least in demand. Yet DVCMC insists that 1-BR are more in demand than 2-BR. Could you tell Y that what you (and I and pretty much everyone following this thread, I think) want is data (best) or at minimum a more detailed explanation as to how the data they have that’s not visible to us via the booking tools leads to such a different conclusion on their part? Thanks for your efforts in this regard.
 
I agree that it’s eye opening, but to Dean’s point, optics aside, if Disney can prove that the reallocation was designed to better the greater membership (more specifically to address demand), the financial windfall (Can $33M even be called that?) would would be immaterial.

Absent the data, I’m not sure how easy that would be to prove this is a money grab.

Does Disney need to prove that? Or do the plaintiffs need to prove that it wasn't?
The onus would be on the members or some third party to prove otherwise. True proof would have to come in terms of hard hitting legal action unless they released the actual data and my experience with them in the past says this is not going to happen. They MIGHT let you look at some of it in person, that's about the most we can hope for.

DVC Members at each resort do benefit from the breakage income and that has always been reflected in the annual report. The limit placed on 'breakage' income provided to offset maintenance fees has also been there since the beginning and included in the legal documents. This is NOT a new concept created with/for the 2020 reallocation.

Before throwing around anecdotal numbers, be sure to deduct the expenses involved with those cash reservation numbers - advertising, labor costs for CRO, maintaining the online reservation system (and NOT the DVC reservation system, but the WDW reservation system where this breakage income is actually generated).

So, the real complaint now is that "we" just didn't recognize that Disney is allowed to make a profit?
Correct and they own 2-4% of sold out resorts PLUS any points unsold or taken ROFR. This difference is first used for maintenance and refurbishment issues. So the questions to me are where do the dollars end up and what was the intent. If the intent was appropriate but they end up with more breakage dollars, I agree, so be it. They also have other rental income from DVC villas outside breakage. But again they own some so that inventory is fair for them to have as breakage.

Well yes and no. I think the complaint is that a point rebalance should actually minimize breakage income. In fact I was told on my two calls with senior leadership that is the effective mandate of the POS, simplest interpretation. As less breakage means even demand and 100% capacity. Also DVCMC sets the point charts and they are a fiduciary and fiduciary rules prevent them from doing anything that is out of our best interest to turn a profit. So if the new point charts increase breakage it is 100% out of line with their fiduciary role and they must rebalance again. However, the limitation is showing that it will increase breakage before it happens, unless someone built a data analytics model with all the data Disney has to prove it.

While I disagree with some points with DVCMC, one possible reason they increased the spread was a choice maybe to eat points that are being banked/borrowed for a year they feel demand will be super high because of SW:GE. However, I feel the change made isn’t allowed on a certain front but that is my opinion and I’ve chosen to express that to them. The ends no matter how beneficial don’t justify the means. So while there may be valid reasons I don’t think it necessarily should have been done they way they did it.
It should over time but it will never be zero and it may take time to get to where it's going to end up. And it could be the intent were appropriate but it doesn't work as intended.

To me, the real complaint, is I had the false impression that the members got 98% of the capacity of the resort. The remaining 2% went to maintenance and missed booking.

Yes, the Lock-off premium has always been there, but I never ran the numbers on it's significance. (again, it is based on an assumption of 75% of LO's are booked as a studio and 1BR) But when I ran the numbers based on the charts that members only filled 93% of the resort with the 2019 charts and now they would fill 90% of the resort with the 2020 charts. I always naively thought we had 98% of the resort.

So the complaint is, we paid for 98% entire resort as a whole, yet Disney gets the use of 8-10% to "make a profit".

I do not believe these to be anecdotal numbers. They are based on a simple assumption, which I have included in my posts. I have made the %LO as studio/1BR a variable in my calculations. It may change the impact, but the impact is always very significant. (BTW DVC reservations is like 800K per year for all of SSR, the smallest of the components I included)
Members get access to ALL of the resort that's in inventory minus anything blocked off for refurbishment. Breakage is unused inventory. And it's possible these changes could increase it but I doubt it'll give much real change. They already had breakage and roughly 1-2% of unused should go to refurbishments (extrapolating form other timeshares). Plus members get the first 2.5% of income from breakage. So it's only the difference above around 3.5-4% that's unbooked and the difference the last few years to going forward that are in question. The decreases in the 2 BR and the almost certainty that there will be at least some increased usage of 2 BR over the smaller components for lockoff's will offset this somewhat as well. And if past RCI deposits hold going forward, this change will use up some of the extra points in that area alone with no benefit to the system or breakage.

I own at own at OKW, BLT, & VGF and only use 1BRs except for an occasional lead-in studio night. I am also a high point owner. I am going to lose nights and have no use for a 2BR, which I would even get less nights in, since there is only 2 of us. There is not greater demand for the 1BRs! Further, the increasing of points for 1BRs, particularly at BLT (14 & 21 pts/week) and VGF (21 pts/week for standard) is definitely not in the best interest of members. As mentioned, 1BR nights are lost and higher demand is created for studios which are already in higher demand. This change is only in the best interest of DVC!
The change to you personally is important to you but it's not the consideration of the system as they have larger mandates.

So how does one prove it either way? I can’t help but feel like we’re at an impasse.

Disney can state, for example, that Bungalows are more in demand than studios at PVB. Everything we’ve experienced will say otherwise, but Disney can simply state they have data to prove it, data we have no legally protected expectation to, as you’ve pointed out, and you could accept that and say “they have more data than we do, so I will trust their word before any anecdotal experiences shared on these boards.” And there would be no argument against it.

Is this hyperbole? Absolutely. But to a lot of us, the idea that 1BR demand warrants an increase defies what we see and experience when we look at these charts and would not be a huge departure from the PVB scenario.

I openly acknowledge that Disney has detailed metrics that no member has access to, but I can’t help but wonder if in the face of tremendous financial motivation to, that a company might rely on the human tendency to acquiesce to change when the obstacles to affect that change seem insurmountable.

Absent guide from Disney, yeah, these are among the things we will wonder.
I think the only way to prove it is if they release their numbers either voluntarily or through legal action, this has been part of my point all along. Unless you're willing to go to the wall, there really isn't a point in putting much effort here.

I respectfully disagree. The point of the reallocation should be each vacation home should be booked 100% by members. That is literally their responsibility as a fiduciary. So technically that should reduce breakage by definition. Literally the exact words came out of their mouths. They said balancing demand meant that at all units were occupied at the same speed st 100%.

I also believe the raw data is probably something we could request at the requesters cost and they would have to provide it. What would be proprietary and not have to be provided is the model that developed the 2020 point charts.
In theory the goal would be 100% booked at the same pace across all seasons, unit sizes and to a degree, each resort. It's really more like 98% though but I'm going to assume when we say 100% we mean all after appropriate refurbishment needs. That would be slowing down those that were booked the fastest and vice versa.
 
@zavandor, I think I remember that Y (or V?, can’t remember which is correct) asked you to tell her “what you want.” It seems to me that a recurring issue in this thread is the lack of transparency and, yes, data from DVCMC to justify increasing 1-BR point costs. Thanks to @skier_pete and @Bing Showei, “we” have data gathered from the DVC Member booking tools showing that 1-BR are the last to book, leading “us” to conclude that 1-BR are the least in demand. Yet DVCMC insists that 1-BR are more in demand than 2-BR. Could you tell Y that what you (and I and pretty much everyone following this thread, I think) want is data (best) or at minimum a more detailed explanation as to how the data they have that’s not visible to us via the booking tools leads to such a different conclusion on their part? Thanks for your efforts in this regard.

As has been mentioned in a previous post the reason they can probably claim one bedrooms are more "in demand" than 2 bedrooms is because a majority of lockoffs are booked separately as studios and one bedrooms.

That means two bedrooms may in fact be the "least booked" category, but in reality that's only because the studios get booked so quickly that it eliminates the possibility of a 2BR lockoff.
 
1BR rooms seem to be kind of the ugly stepchild. Nobody seem to really want them for various reasons, the price is too high for the studio crowd and they are too small for the 2BR crowd.

However, when someones first choice isn't available, it is the fall back for many people. So you have studio folks stepping up to a 1BR and you have 2BR people stepping down. In addition to that, you have those who truly want a 1BR.

I can interpret this as higher demand for 1BRs, when in reality in my opinion its not demand in some cases as much as settling.
 












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